What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Topic Author
renditt
Posts: 608
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:05 pm

What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by renditt » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525

alfaspider
Posts: 1990
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by alfaspider » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm

The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.

Shallowpockets
Posts: 1203
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:26 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Shallowpockets » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:56 pm

I hope it does not hit 1400 bottom on the S and P. That would be way down. As in a major depression and not good for anybody.
I know there are those dancing with glee at this drop and wanting it to go further down. Then they can buy on sale. Well, that would take a toll and I don't see the dancing as realistic because there would be ripples through everything.
Nothing to say that after the holidays that there won't be a rise in unemployment and the repercussions of that. Expectations for company profits next year projected less. And so it goes as perhaps business prepares for such a scenario.
The gleeful dancers can't see the trees for the forest.

selters
Posts: 646
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 9:26 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by selters » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:18 pm

This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced since I started investing in 2012. But that’s probably because this is the first time a few months of contributions for me will not cover my losses. Logically I know very well that the market may turn at any point. So I will continue to buy stocks whenever I get a paycheck.

I think 1400 sounds low. For the purposes of this thread, I’m guessing the low for the S&P will be 2158.

User avatar
alpenglow
Posts: 820
Joined: Tue May 31, 2011 12:02 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by alpenglow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:30 pm

1909 :shock:

Namashkar
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 11:43 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Namashkar » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:30 pm

It is not practical or helpful to pick a number. To me it is important to decide when to start buying equities. I am starting to do that using DCA after S&P drops to 2200, about 25% drop from its recent high. In the meantime I am holding money in MM accounts.

JoeRetire
Posts: 2559
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:32 pm

renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?
2385

livesoft
Posts: 66956
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by livesoft » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:40 pm

The low will be whatever it closed at today or whatever it closes at on its next RBD.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

amitb00
Posts: 471
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:04 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by amitb00 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:45 pm

It will hit less than 2000 before it hits newer highs. So answer for this question: 2000 🙁 Not happy about it.

greenhill
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:27 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by greenhill » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:15 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens :beer

Luckywon
Posts: 486
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:33 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Luckywon » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:22 pm

selters wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:18 pm
This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced.
To me they always feel different at the time. In the rear view mirror, they look the same.

columbia
Posts: 1647
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by columbia » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:30 pm

I’m a pessimist these days, so I’ll say 1500.


I, of course, have no idea.

michaeljc70
Posts: 5210
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by michaeljc70 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:32 pm

2300. Of course, this is just a guess. Things seem pretty oversold. I don't see signs of recession. I see signs of the Fed easing on rate hikes. If the tariff situation with China is mostly resolved, that could give a big boost to the markets.

User avatar
ReformedSpender
Posts: 349
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:34 pm

In the range of 21XX - 23XX's before the next great bull

Nobody knows nothing. Keep calm and Bogle on

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

applejack123
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:42 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by applejack123 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:41 pm

It was at 1800 two years ago. Cmon. Dropping to that is not going back that far. I don’t see how the huge jump in the last two years, everyone thinks that is where the stock prices should have been. And when it goes down, they feel like the markets tanking. What? I see it the other way. It went crazy up the last two years. Crazy.

User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 4194
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:42 pm

whatever it is, I won't know it until after it's happened. So of what importance is guessing a random number? Guessing contest? How many jellybeans are in the jar? How much does the cow weigh?
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

hotpancakes
Posts: 68
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:25 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by hotpancakes » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:45 pm

1000.

Prudence
Posts: 447
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:55 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Prudence » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:46 pm

2,200 for the floor on a correction. I don't see any evidence to support a recession and bear market starting in the next two years, in so far as this would affect the S&P 500. So, a drop from the high of 2,940 to 1,400 (52%) seems wildly pessimistic.

tesuzuki2002
Posts: 654
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:54 pm

renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525
1200

It was in the 700s in 2009

800s in 2003

700 in 1997

These are all real numbers that are not far off... exponential growth is not sustainable.

kilkoyne
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:38 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by kilkoyne » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:59 pm

I'll say 1580

pennylane
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:22 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by pennylane » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:00 pm

Between 1900-2100

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28392
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:04 pm

renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value...

What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?

My guess is 1400.

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525
renditt:

I have not the slightest idea.

Take a guess on the 2019 Boglehead Contest with what you think the S&P 500 Index will close at in December 2019. Most of us don't even come close.

Registration for the Contest begins January 1st on this forum.

https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
Random Musings
Posts: 5389
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:24 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Random Musings » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:21 pm

I don't know if the final low will be in 2019, but another 50% plus drop would not surprise me. So, I'll toss my ring in the hat and guess 1,270. Hope it doesn't happen though.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

User avatar
Cycle
Posts: 1313
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 7:57 pm
Location: Minneapolis

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Cycle » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:24 pm

All civilizations come to an end, it'll go to zero, but not in my lifetime.

In the next calendar year, i think the S&P will go to 1158.

It all depends what the feds do. The markets are basically welded to the fed rate.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28392
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Bogleheads beat Wall Street forecasts

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:42 pm

Cycle wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:24 pm
All civilizations come to an end, it'll go to zero, but not in my lifetime.

In the next calendar year, i think the S&P will go to 1158.
Cycle:

I just finished reading "Wall Street's 2019 Outlook" on cnbc. Thirteen major firms have guesses ranging from a low of 2,750 (Morgan Stanley) to a high of 3,250 (Deutsche Bank).

Currently the average 2018 Boglehead guesses are better than the average Wall Street Expert guesses.

https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx

Be sure to register here for the 2019 Contest during the first 10-days in January.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
comcool
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:02 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by comcool » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:50 pm

2,506.96... am I doing this right
“Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers.” Homer Simpson

User avatar
Soaker
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:21 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Soaker » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:12 pm

Not to be political, but rather historical. The S&P 500 declined 17.37% in 1973 and then further declined 29.72% in 1974. The stock market wouldn't like a 1974-type situation in Washington very much. I'll say 1929 as the S&P 500 low, which wouldn't be as bad as the 1973-1974 decline.

limeyx
Posts: 270
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by limeyx » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:25 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !

TropikThunder
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by TropikThunder » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:30 pm

limeyx wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:25 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !
No way! The accounting practices on Rigel are so bad, nobody knows what a fair price is. And don't get me started on the currency risk.

:twisted:

flyingaway
Posts: 2290
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:19 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by flyingaway » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:35 pm

So valuation does matter. What will be the CAPE10 number?

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 5596
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by whodidntante » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:38 pm

greenhill wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:15 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens :beer
Sure, but we need interstellar. Elon Musk only wants to put humans on Mars. What a slacker.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 5596
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by whodidntante » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:39 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:30 pm
limeyx wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:25 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
That's why we all need to be buying VTU (Vanvguard total Universe) to diversify against this case !
No way! The accounting practices on Rigel are so bad, nobody knows what a fair price is. And don't get me started on the currency risk.

:twisted:
We'll be beyond money and instead work to better ourselves. But somehow there are Federation credits.

Scooter57
Posts: 936
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:20 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Scooter57 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:42 pm

I'll guess 1825. I believe that is in the range that would boost the dividends to a more appealing level and bring the P/E to a more historically average level. But these things can often overshoot to the downside.

Baring massive political chaos/war/disaster/plague etc I would be putting my t ruck into reverse gear at that level.

User avatar
tc101
Posts: 3107
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:18 pm
Location: Atlanta - Retired in 2004 at age 54

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by tc101 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:56 pm

I guess 2212. Of course if that were anything more than a wild guess I would sell everything now and buy it back when the market got closer to my guess. I would guess that no one here has done that.
Last edited by tc101 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
. | The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.

User avatar
hdas
Posts: 955
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:24 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by hdas » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:58 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:40 pm
The low will be whatever it closed at today or whatever it closes at on its next RBD.
:beer

I think we are very close in time to finding a good low.H
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

eRob
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:44 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by eRob » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:16 am

I think the market goes back up from here. 2,506.96

aristotelian
Posts: 5802
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by aristotelian » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:15 am

I see nothing scary in the market fundamentals. CAPE topped out in the 30s, not even close to the peak valuations in 2000. The current market price is the best approximation based on known information. I have one more payroll contribution this year and it's going to stocks.

SchruteB&B
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:48 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by SchruteB&B » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:50 am

renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525
So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!

User avatar
Flymore
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 1:31 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Flymore » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:16 am

greenhill wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:15 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
The low will be zero. Eventually the sun will explode, and human civilization will probably gone far before that happens :mrgreen:

In the near term, I will throw out 1,800 as a WAG.
Perhaps we will move to another planet before that happens :beer
Why not start a thread on when the sun will explode?
Recently the sun's age was increased to around 4.5 billion years up from 4 billion.
Estimates put the sun's life around 8 billion years, so my guess is year 3,500,2030 AD! :D

User avatar
goingup
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:02 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by goingup » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:32 am

SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:50 am
renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525
So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!
Good times! I clearly remember the SP500 interday low was 666. Memorable in the worst way.

Independent George
Posts: 447
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 12:13 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by Independent George » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:43 am

I am calling 1450. Panic is contagious, and the herd is stampeding for the exits right now. Hopefully I will still be employed when it happens, so I can keep loading up in my 401k when it bottoms out.

SandraBumble
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:48 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by SandraBumble » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:52 am

Curious if the bears on this thread have been acting on their predictions in their investments?

lutok
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:24 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by lutok » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:54 am

If it doesn't bounce back from yesterday's lows, the correct answer is 2080 8-).

hithere
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:30 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by hithere » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:04 am

If this decline turns out to be a moderate recession and the inflation stays under control, I'd say the bottom will be around $1,500, but it can very well be closer to $1,000 or $2,000. :)

latak215
Posts: 34
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 7:41 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by latak215 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:12 am

I believe that this is a knee jerk reaction for interest rate hike. fed believes economy is strong despite threats to free trade. Markets will normalse soon

BoggledHead2
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:50 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by BoggledHead2 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:16 am

Literally everyone I know that should "know" about the markets for their profession says the fundamentals are sound, recession not even on the radar, and basically this is end-of-year profit taking combined with trade war hysteria

If this "trade war" (so ridiculous) gets resolved, markets will explode [in a good way]

3funder
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:35 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by 3funder » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:54 am

0 - 2,500!

8-)

hithere
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:30 am

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by hithere » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:07 am

latak215 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:12 am
I believe that this is a knee jerk reaction for interest rate hike. fed believes economy is strong despite threats to free trade. Markets will normalse soon
I presume that by "normalize" you mean that the S&P will go back up, but I find it kind of funny that S&P is already way above the historical "norm", so in order for the S&P to normalize, its value would not only not increase, but it would have to decrease significantly.

User avatar
Topic Author
renditt
Posts: 608
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:05 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by renditt » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:15 am

SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:50 am
renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis...

viewtopic.php?t=26525
So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many guessed correctly!
Yes, I confess, it was probably the worst designed poll in the history of the bogleheads forum... :D

I want to point out that my own guess of 650 was very close to the 666 intraday low 8-)

wsm111
Posts: 6
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:43 pm

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Post by wsm111 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:19 am

1864, which was the technical support level established Feb 8, 2016.

Same line of thinking, it might be low 2100s, which was the ceiling from Feb 2015 through May 2016

Post Reply