Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

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warner25
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Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by warner25 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:43 pm

I noticed yesterday that gas in my area was under $2.00 again. It reminded me of driving cross-country in December of 2008 and paying less than $2.00 which seemed utterly amazing after the rise in prices in the 2000s, and especially after the summer of 2008. I bought a Prius that spring when I needed a new car and figured I'd certainly never again see gas for $2.00. I don't remember having a specific vision for the stock market, but I was more optimistic than most and even I would've had a hard time believing that a 60/40 US balanced fund would double in value from the 2007 market top by 2018. Those were dark days. The best bet, in my mind, was probably an emerging markets stock fund, which has performed most miserably since the 2007 top.

It's a good reminder, for me, of the folly of making market predictions. What seemed clear at the time, to me and I think many others, was not.

So, where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

P.S. I remember listening to a short interview with John Bogle on NPR during my cross-country road trip, telling investors that nothing had fundamentally changed, and that we should just hang on and minimize costs. It was another year before I fully understood and bought into the Bogleheads philosophy, but that stuck with me.

MathWizard
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by MathWizard » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:03 pm

I expected a correction a few years back, but otherwise things are pretty much where I expected.

I didn't think GE and Sears would be going under, but that's why I don't invest in individual stocks.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by GibsonL6s » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:11 pm

It would be interesting to know what the dividend yield plus growth model would have shown as the expected returns.

The drip return calculator from 12/8/08 through 12/4/18 shows 13.79% for stocks and 3.36% for bonds reinvesting dividends. In December of 2008 stocks yielded 3.23%, so growth ended up being around 10%, I don't recall what people were forecasting back then.

Thesaints
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Thesaints » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:15 pm

About one million behind in total net worth.

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Conch55
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Conch55 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:16 pm

Possibly a unique situation but I worked abroad for weeks at a time during the 2007/8 downturn and spent lots of time fretting about the market and my inability to react. I decided I needed a better plan and have since created an AA in can live with. It was a good lesson for me on planning ahead.

columbia
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by columbia » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 pm

I lost my job (grant situation ended) in Spring of 2007, but was back to full employment by November of that year.

In retrospect, that sequence could have been very bad for my financial health. The crash and raging bull have been important, but honestly secondary (in my mind) to avoiding disaster (and making significant strides in my career since then).

OkieIndexer
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by OkieIndexer » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:02 pm

Around 800-1500 on the S&P 500, and without all the QE and removal of "mark to market" for the big banks, that's probably where we would be right now.
"In bull markets, people say 'The more risk I take, the greater my return.' But when people aren't afraid of risk, they'll accept risk without being compensated." -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital

Dottie57
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 pm

I had no expectations. I hoped and prayed I would be able to retire. Prayers answered.

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willthrill81
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:30 pm

GibsonL6s wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:11 pm
It would be interesting to know what the dividend yield plus growth model would have shown as the expected returns.

The drip return calculator from 12/8/08 through 12/4/18 shows 13.79% for stocks and 3.36% for bonds reinvesting dividends. In December of 2008 stocks yielded 3.23%, so growth ended up being around 10%, I don't recall what people were forecasting back then.
Many were genuinely concerned about whether the U.S. would experience Great Depression: Part 2.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:32 pm

Soup lines. I’m not kidding, we came this close from going over the edge. Thankfully saner minds prevailed. If the banks had gone, it’s be game over.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

chevca
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by chevca » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:46 pm

I had three kids under six years old, two of them twin toddlers, and hadn't invested a dollar yet.

So,.... I was just hoping to stay sane. :happy

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willthrill81
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:33 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:32 pm
Soup lines. I’m not kidding, we came this close from going over the edge. Thankfully saner minds prevailed. If the banks had gone, it’s be game over.
And yet many (most?) on this forum would regard those who have stockpiled years' worth of food, medical supplies, etc. as being extremists. Had Great Depression: Part 2 come about, such people would have been far better off than many BHs.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

LaurieAnnaT
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by LaurieAnnaT » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:27 pm

Ten years ago is especially vivid for me because my husband and I met with an investment advisor after attending his seminar in Nov 2008. Our portfolio was down 29% and the seminar said all the right things - diversifying, asset allocation, etc. Unfortunately, the advisor had his own agenda - annuities and life insurance. I suppose a lot of folks who had lost money in the stock market at that time would have been suckers for those products. But my husband and I had been investing since the late 1970s and we had seen the ups and downs in the market. We KNEW that the stock market would come back and that we needed to keep investing. So we bade farewell to the advisor and followed our instincts.

Ten years ago my husband and I firmly believed that the stock market would recover and our best course of action would be to continue investing. I don't know that we would have predicted how fast it came back - we made up our losses within two years. And I don't know that we could have predicted how much higher the market has gone since 2008. But that's the advantage of having seen ups and downs in the stock market. We believed that the stock market would, eventually, return to its upward trend and we stayed the course. It worked. Very well.

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willthrill81
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm

LaurieAnnaT wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:27 pm
We KNEW that the stock market would come back and that we needed to keep investing.
Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by LaurieAnnaT » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:02 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm
Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this?
First, that's the history of the stock market. You may not know when it will come back, or how fast it will come back, but it will come back. This stock dip was just another in a long line of stock dips.

Second, we were betting on American business. The stock market is a reflection of American business and when it comes to American business, the deck is stacked in its favor. The reality is that Congress - both Republicans and Democrats - want American businesses to succeed. If businesses succeed, their constituents who voted them into office will succeed. Predictably, Congress and the administration enacted measures to turn the recession around. Companies started making profits and the stock market recovered.

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willthrill81
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:07 pm

LaurieAnnaT wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:02 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm
Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this?
First, that's the history of the stock market. You may not know when it will come back, or how fast it will come back, but it will come back. This stock dip was just another in a long line of stock dips.

Second, we were betting on American business. The stock market is a reflection of American business and when it comes to American business, the deck is stacked in its favor. The reality is that Congress - both Republicans and Democrats - want American businesses to succeed. If businesses succeed, their constituents who voted them into office will succeed. Predictably, Congress and the administration enacted measures to turn the recession around. Companies started making profits and the stock market recovered.
Thank you. :beer
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by KlangFool » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:43 pm

Folks,

10 years ago, my employer laid off 50% of its employee at my location. Under my director, it was 80% laid off. I was too busy trying to do my job and keep my job to worry about the stock market. The whole building was emptying out. Over the next few months, more people were let go. Nobody knew who would be next.

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TheHouse7
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by TheHouse7 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:56 pm

10 years ago I was a junior in college getting a useless degree, thinking I shouldn't stay in school like a lot of my classmates. It worked out the way God intended. :happy
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.

LaurieAnnaT
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by LaurieAnnaT » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:28 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:20 pm
You gambled and won. What was the history of the market in 1929-1934? How about the Federal Reserve? Let’s not even get started with how the two parties nearly sank the country. History of the market, it changes day by day. In the ten years since 2008, it seems a lot of people have forgotten what real risk is, because there’s tons of it out there and it’s not just held at institutional investors level. If you had a front row seat in 2008 into the inner workings of what was occurring minute by minute you’d be sweating it just as Bernarke, Paulson and Geithner were, let alone the thousands of bankers in the mix. This was a calamity of epic proportions, the clueless in Washington and elsewhere weren’t that smart. If they were they would have never permitted the repeal of the Glass-Stegall Act.
A little more information: Even with the market drop, we were still >$1M in equities. Plus we had recently inherited a mid six-figure amount which was still sitting in cash. It was that inheritance which spurred us to attend that retirement seminar and talk to that advisor. With 11 years until my husband turned 65, we thought it was a safe bet to keep our equities where they were and gradually add in the inheritance.

But how many people pulled all their money out of equities 10 years ago? It took some of them years to get back into the market. They figured that staying in the market was a gamble. Look where it got them.

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dogagility
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by dogagility » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:17 am

LaurieAnnaT wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:02 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm
Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this?
First, that's the history of the stock market. You may not know when it will come back, or how fast it will come back, but it will come back. This stock dip was just another in a long line of stock dips.

Second, we were betting on American business. The stock market is a reflection of American business and when it comes to American business, the deck is stacked in its favor. The reality is that Congress - both Republicans and Democrats - want American businesses to succeed. If businesses succeed, their constituents who voted them into office will succeed. Predictably, Congress and the administration enacted measures to turn the recession around. Companies started making profits and the stock market recovered.
This was my thinking too. Was 100% equity during the entire episode, including new 401k money. I distinctly remember talking with a co-worker and wishing I had more money to put into the market... didn't leverage however. It worked.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:33 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:32 pm
Soup lines. I’m not kidding, we came this close from going over the edge. Thankfully saner minds prevailed. If the banks had gone, it’s be game over.
That is a very accurate description. Since the dawn of the modern era in the 1600s or 1700s, the economy cannot function without banks. The Shadow Banking System was completely frozen as the Money Market Funds did not "roll" their Commercial Paper, major corporations like GE and Ford were telling the US Treasury they could not make their payrolls nor pay their suppliers at the end of the month. And the banking system was in a downward death spiral.

The civil servants told Alistair Darling (the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer ie Minister of Finance) that there would be no cash left in the Royal Bank of Scotland cash machines by Monday morning (RBS was briefly in the top 5 banks in the world by assets) - you could feel the fear in the streets, people who worked in finance queuing up to withdraw their savings or to open accounts and put £30k in each account (the deposit insurance limit). These are people who would need to open 10 or 15 accounts to cover all their savings. It was the financial services industry version of panic in the streets.

(an employee of one of the world's 20 largest banks, well capitalized, Canadian, minimal losses in CDOs, told me "we didn't know if we'd be around at the end of the month")

Congress kicked the TARP out, and the Dow promptly voted by falling 8% in a single day.

And Gordon Brown (the then Prime Minister) and Alistair Darling got up and announced that the British government would bail its banks.

You could summarize the message of the speech as "Things are bad. They may get worse. We shall do what is necessary. If that is not enough, we shall do more". It was a Churchillian moment in British politics (lost in bad memories of Brown's tenure as PM). Paul Krugman penned a column in the New York Times entitled "Did Gordon Brown just save the world". You could almost hear the Rolls Royce Merlin engines of the Spitfires coughing into life*.

It was enough. The US then found its mojo and enacted the TARP. Apparently as a point of law discussions on the floor of Congress have legal status, and a conversation between Representative Franks and an interlocutor gave the legal authority for the Administration to change the TARP's purpose to include the purchase of equity issued by the banks -- thus the bailout.

The Eurozone countries followed suit - -some of the worst affected financial institutions were in Germany and the Continent generally (big holders of American CDOs). It all felt a bit like that last scene in Spartacus where everyone starts saying "I am Gordon Brown. No I am Gordon Brown!" [aka Spartacus]

* a German bomber pilot wrote in his diary of a Hurricane fighter, guns jammed, trying to ram his plane "what kind of men are we fighting?" The Royal Air Force, the first independent air force in world history, would justify the care and resources lavished on it in the late 1930s.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:56 am

[quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

This is it. The limits of Central Bank and government intervention were tested. FNMA & FMAC, AIG, the bailouts to the major banks. BancAmerica being hammered after taking over Merrill Lynch (with political pressure to close the deal even as the scale of the losses became clear).

It wasn't certain that the interventions would work. Not certain at all.

A related parallel to 1929 was the international dimension. It was the collapse of Credit Anstalt in Vienna in 1931 that led to a collapse of the world trade system. Trade fell faster in the months following the Lehman bankruptcy than it had in the 1929-1931 period. We know what happened next in the Eurozone - Greece, and the panic over the PIIGs (or as the Irish joke put it "what's the difference between Iceland and Ireland? A: 6 months, 1 letter". The debt on Ireland etc was yielding c. 10%. That could have happened in accelerated time if the banking crash had not been stopped.

And the background risk temperature is rising steadily. Exactly what Hyman Minsky predicted-- that long periods of stability cause higher risk taking and instability.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:00 am

[quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]
IngognitoUSA wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:38 am
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:20 pm
You gambled and won. What was the history of the market in 1929-1934? How about the Federal Reserve? Let’s not even get started with how the two parties nearly sank the country. History of the market, it changes day by day. In the ten years since 2008, it seems a lot of people have forgotten what real risk is, because there’s tons of it out there and it’s not just held at institutional investors level. If you had a front row seat in 2008 into the inner workings of what was occurring minute by minute you’d be sweating it just as Bernarke, Paulson and Geithner were, let alone the thousands of bankers in the mix. This was a calamity of epic proportions, the clueless in Washington and elsewhere weren’t that smart. If they were they would have never permitted the repeal of the Glass-Stegall Act.
Well said, people had no ideas how bad things could have gotten if Goverment had not stepped in. Kudos to Paulson and Bernake who did whatever it took to ensure we did not have a great financial reset.
A factor missing from the 1929-31 crash was concerted international action - which there was this time*. It was an unusual period of harmony between key financial decision makers, globally - everyone saw the dangers and they acted in a reasonably coordinated fashion.

* There was that kind of liaison in the 1929-31 period, but they did not have the advantage of knowing of the failures of previous history. Ben Bernanke is an accomplished financial historian of the 1930s period and of the problems of Japan post 1989. His British and other equivalents were similarly well schooled.

AerialWombat
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by AerialWombat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:58 am

I was divorced, bankrupt, homeless, and suicidal ten years ago. At the time, I had zero expectations that I would have a future.

Expectations are much rosier today. 8-)

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:59 am

[edited]
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:59 am

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:58 am
I was divorced, bankrupt, homeless, and suicidal ten years ago. At the time, I had zero expectations that I would have a future.

Expectations are much rosier today. 8-)
I am glad you made it.

So many did not.

These crises have very real human consequences, away from the abstraction of what one's portfolio is worth.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

dbapaddy
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by dbapaddy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:01 am

I've never really thought that far ahead.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:05 am

[quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

It's the old anarchist lament, that all we really need to do is blow up the world and remake it, anew.

When, in fact, you get the Terror of the French Revolution. Or the Red Terror of the Russian Civil War, and eventually Stalin, the Great Purge and the Gulags. Or Germany's "strong leader" commits it to an unwinnable war against the USA and USSR, which leaves it with 4 million dead, and divided in 2 by occupying powers for the next 50 years.

Japan's leaders, reluctant to accept the humiliation of climbing down and losing face before the Americans, start a war even they don't think they can win, which leads to 110k killed in Tokyo in a single firebombing, and 80k at Hiroshima in the world's first nuclear attack.

Revolution is always about discarding the bones of the past for the bright and shiny promised future. And it always disappoints.

I am not sure "Mad Max" but The Great Depression was bad enough in North America. And Huey Long might have become president ...

AerialWombat
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by AerialWombat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:09 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:59 am

So many did not.
True dat. Had a buddy that didn’t make it. Financial meltdowns impact people in different ways, and this is one side effect of market crashes that society kinda tries to sweep under the rug.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:29 am

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:09 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:59 am

So many did not.
True dat. Had a buddy that didn’t make it. Financial meltdowns impact people in different ways, and this is one side effect of market crashes that society kinda tries to sweep under the rug.
People lose their jobs. Their homes. Their marriages.

People neglect basic medical treatment. Or they seek solace in substance abuse. Or they become homeless.

When I was in High School we did a module on The Great Depression. "Ten Lost Years" was a Canadian narrative of oral history by people who suffered through that time. I have never forgotten some of those readings.

Men would come to the door of my great grandmother's house. At lunchtime she would serve them soup off the back step- the only meal they probably got all day. That's what it was like.

Life expectancy in the UK has stopped rising, and is actually falling in some areas, since we began the period of austerity in 2010. Why is not fully understood why so that could be coincidental. In Greece, it's no coincidence - the economy imploded, and people are suffering, and dying.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:06 am

warner25 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:43 pm
I noticed yesterday that gas in my area was under $2.00 again. It reminded me of driving cross-country in December of 2008 and paying less than $2.00 which seemed utterly amazing after the rise in prices in the 2000s, and especially after the summer of 2008. I bought a Prius that spring when I needed a new car and figured I'd certainly never again see gas for $2.00. I don't remember having a specific vision for the stock market, but I was more optimistic than most and even I would've had a hard time believing that a 60/40 US balanced fund would double in value from the 2007 market top by 2018. Those were dark days. The best bet, in my mind, was probably an emerging markets stock fund, which has performed most miserably since the 2007 top.

It's a good reminder, for me, of the folly of making market predictions. What seemed clear at the time, to me and I think many others, was not.

So, where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

P.S. I remember listening to a short interview with John Bogle on NPR during my cross-country road trip, telling investors that nothing had fundamentally changed, and that we should just hang on and minimize costs. It was another year before I fully understood and bought into the Bogleheads philosophy, but that stuck with me.
Wow. Gas here is still over $3.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by goblue100 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:34 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:06 am

Wow. Gas here is still over $3.
Where do you live? $1.88 commonly available around here. Dallas area.

To answer the question in the OP, I couldn't or didn't picture 10 years down the road. I was worried about next week.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by robertmcd » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:46 am

[quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

Yeah unfortunately all we have done is kicked the can further down the road, and expanded the wealth gap to pre great depression levels. We could have gotten out of the tech bubble naturally, but we had to drop rates to get "awesome growth and inflation'' ASAP and in doing so created a larger disaster in the GFC. We could have dug our way out of the GFC as a nation. It would have sucked, and the stock market would probably be just getting back to even today, but we would have a functioning free market economy. Instead we gave the market some heroin (ZIRP/QE) to cheer it up, and our "heroes" at the Fed decided that we would never have a free market again. Now the market is convulsing with withdrawals as we tried to taper it off (shocking right?), but never fear, the fentanyl will be on the way shortly. The Fed didn't print enough last time or buy enough assets, but this time they won't make that mistake.

vested1
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by vested1 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:02 am

Ten years ago (next April) I retired from megacorp having been lured away with promises that were never kept. Worked another 7 years for three different firms who were progressively more corrupt than the previous one. I was lucky to have received a lump sum retirement from megacorp, which I invested with zero knowledge. If not for a 10 year bull market and the sage advice given here who knows how much my ignorance would have cost me.

The difference between 10 years ago and now, at least in this country, is the uncertainty surrounding economic policies and the difficulty in separating rhetoric from the truth. Truth used to be universally recognized, rather than debatable.

It may also be that our insatiable desire to immerse ourselves in the newest technology has been a detriment, rather than a boon. Who knows where automation, artificial intelligence, and mega-mergers will lead us. The same can be said for the tribes we choose to align ourselves with. Civility and respect are vastly underrated.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by nmclean » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:20 pm
What was the history of the market in 1929-1934?
That was 5 years. The original comment was regarding 10 years. If it was really "Great Depression: Part 2", we should have still been expecting at least a slow recovery starting in 2 more years, 10 years ago today (late 2010).

Of course you are correct that things could have gone worse than they did, but that doesn't negate Laurie's point. "Knowing" there would be a recovery doesn't mean "knowing" exactly when or how great it would be.

The fact is continuing to invest was and remains a wise bet. It's not a "gamble" unless the potential loss couldn't be sustained, but with a large portfolio and more than 10 years to wait, it easily could.

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Stinky
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by Stinky » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:23 am

In 2008, moat of my net worth was in my employers stock. It had dropped almost 90%, much more than the market. It was selling at two times the projected 2009 earnings. I was an insider, and was confident that my company would survive.

So I actually bought more of my employers stock (of course, following all insider trading rules). At the peak, almost all of my net worth was in my employers stock. By 2011, the stock price had increased 700%, and I sold out.

In hindsight, the most profitable financial decision I ever made. But extremely, extremely risky. Don’t know if I would ever try that again.
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letsgobobby
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:52 pm

goblue100 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:34 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:06 am

Wow. Gas here is still over $3.
Where do you live? $1.88 commonly available around here. Dallas area.

To answer the question in the OP, I couldn't or didn't picture 10 years down the road. I was worried about next week.
Pacific Northwest

warner25
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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by warner25 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm

Wow, this discussion turned darker than I thought it would.

I think I had the sense in December 2008 that crisis had been averted, and the real panic of a financial system collapse, that many of you have mentioned, was over. Instead, I felt more like I was standing around in awe after a disaster just looking at the wreckage. The talk was whether we'd have a V-shaped or L-shaped recovery. I spent a lot of time looking at what sectors had fallen hardest and therefore might be postured to surge most in the recovery to win back my losses. I maxed out my IRA as soon as markets opened in January and was genuinely shocked when the market continue to crash in February, March.

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Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:00 pm

I removed several off-topic posts. This thread has run its course and is locked (not actionable, conspiracy theory). See: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
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  • discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.
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