Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

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ge1
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Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

Post by ge1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am

I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...

I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:15 am

It’s exciting for my kids. For me, not as much. But, life goes on.
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tea_pirate
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by tea_pirate » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:34 am

I counted about 10 separate days in 2018 that one could have bought VTI at current prices. I don't remember being particularly excited to buy at any of those times.

Now, if we could see some prices that haven't been touched since 2015... :beer

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Starchild
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Starchild » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 am

I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.

Arinbjorn
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Arinbjorn » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:40 am

As a young blood, I'll take it.

Longdog
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Longdog » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:02 am

ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor.
Only for long term investors who have just started investing and have many years ahead of them. For long term investors who have many, many years behind them, a significant drop in the stock market near the end of their long term accumulation phase is not great news, especially if they're not sufficiently diversified across asset classes.
Steve

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:03 am

Not yet, when the market is down 25% then the real excitement begins....unfortunately that usually is followed by a recession, job losses and general economic malaise. Save your cash, the rainy days will surely be upon us one day.
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Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:05 am

Longdog wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:02 am
ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor.
Only for long term investors who have just started investing and have many years ahead of them. For long term investors who have many, many years behind them, a significant drop in the stock market near the end of their long term accumulation phase is not great news, especially if they're not sufficiently diversified across asset classes.
If long term investors failed to own low risk asset classes (you know the ones that don’t return anything but your nominal principal?) they ultimately need to look in the mirror and realize that bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

telecaster
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by telecaster » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:09 am

I feel both. I don't like seeing my gains from the past dwindle. But at the same point I'm hopefully ~10 years from retirement and am in my heaviest accumulation phase so I'm hopeful for a big buying opportunity in this phase with the markets recovering and going higher as I grey a little and get ready to walk out the door.

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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:09 am

Starchild wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 am
I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.
As did I and a lot of other people (year is not over yet). Think of it this way, if you would have not lost the money, would you have spent it or did you need to spend it over the next 10 years? If the answer is no, then just stay the course. If the answer is yes, then equities was/is not the place it should have been allocated to, it should have been in cash, cash equivalents and low duration fixed income or CDs.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

averagedude
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by averagedude » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:37 am

Cant say im overly excited because im several years away from retirement, but i do believe its going to work in my favor. I would rather have the big returns in the future instead of now. Actually this year hasn't really been that bad. We had a great January, and who knows, we might get a santa clause rally.

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midareff
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by midareff » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:46 am

Yawn..... A little positive side of zero for the year. Not very exciting (in my book) as a retiree. Birthday this month, seems Decembers are coming faster than they used too. ... that's not very exciting either. Leaving for a three week cruise soon, that's exciting.

dalbright
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by dalbright » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:52 am

More confused then excited ha! I have a long-term IPS that i have mapped out after owning a single stock my grandfather gave me shares of when i was six that i decided to sell a few months ago near its high and begin to add to roth's and diversify properly which i've just established this year. Unfortunately now i'm just trying to figure out which bond fund in my companies 401k is the least likely to drop in a RBD or recession since i just want to build up money in there for the time being and there is no money market option...I'm very comfortable with my IPS plan but it's silly to start it now with such over-valuation and volatility.

harvestbook
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by harvestbook » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:00 am

I try to be agnostic since I know the market doesn't care at all about my feelings. I guess "interested" is a better term for me. Nothing's changed here, just buying as before. Although I guess it's making my pending Roth conversion a little more productive.

Besides, as an investor, aside from purchases, I only have one job, and that is not selling.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

Shallowpockets
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Shallowpockets » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:17 am

Your excitement is not the norm. Most see a stock market drop as less than welcome or exciting. And you should also think about that. Sure, your long term horizon pragmatically allows you to buy on the cheap. There is a thing called the wealth effect. Usually the flip side of excitement when the markets are not good. It does work both ways but we are talking the down side.
The wealth effect is emotional in that regard, just as your excitement is. People feel less secure in their overall financial state. Less spending, and once the consumer spends less
things all around start to grind down. Housing, investment, interest rates. Maybe it results in more unemployment and you lose your job or get no raises. So your excitement now may be tempered by your own circumstances.
Hard to control these emotions. As BH you stay the course, but that doesn't mean you will be happy about it. So if/when this market continues downward, your glee may flip to the other side.

Dandy
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Dandy » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:20 am

Corrections are a buying opportunity and usually good for younger aggressive investors. If it turns out to be a black swan type of equity plunge that can be a different story. Companies fail, people lose jobs - even young aggressive investors. So, enjoy but be alert.

In 2008 I worked for a large brokerage/investment firm in their mutual fund department. How could a mortgage problem affect me? The firm had to cut costs, its stock plunged from over 100 to 8 and I was "retired" and the rest of the division was outsourced to a firm several states away. Lots of people of all ages and investment allocations were looking for work and there were no jobs available for quite awhile.

I'm hoping for a short lived buying opportunity and a quick recovery.

Valuethinker
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:23 am

ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...

I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.
It's nice to be contrarian, but I have considerable form on this.

In Q3 2008 I thought market weakness had gone on for long enough and so I made quite a few purchases. Q4 began with the default of Lehman Brothers - lost c. 50% of that new money in the next 6 months.

I did something similar in early 2000 as I recall (I may actually have been buying as the bear market was ongoing)-- probably blotted the memory as too painful ;-).

FWIW this does not feel like the beginnings of another bear market. But I am very good at "catching a falling knife" ;-).

Valuethinker
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 am

Shallowpockets wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:17 am
Your excitement is not the norm. Most see a stock market drop as less than welcome or exciting. And you should also think about that. Sure, your long term horizon pragmatically allows you to buy on the cheap. There is a thing called the wealth effect. Usually the flip side of excitement when the markets are not good. It does work both ways but we are talking the down side.
The wealth effect is emotional in that regard, just as your excitement is. People feel less secure in their overall financial state. Less spending, and once the consumer spends less
things all around start to grind down. Housing, investment, interest rates. Maybe it results in more unemployment and you lose your job or get no raises. So your excitement now may be tempered by your own circumstances.
Hard to control these emotions. As BH you stay the course, but that doesn't mean you will be happy about it. So if/when this market continues downward, your glee may flip to the other side.
The actual sensitivity of US consumer spending to stock market levels *directly* is quite small. All the evidence says people "mental account" and the balance in their retirement accounts does not impact their direct spending much (it would be different for those near retirement, perhaps). Also most people don't have a lot of money in stocks -- the marginal propensity to spend those changes in wealth is quite low.

Home equity changes have a much stronger impact on consumer spending - one of the reasons the US recovery post 2008 was so sluggish (the most sluggish in peacetime since WW2 I believe).

What's hard to separate out is the *why* of the stock market fall. Because a recession means people lose jobs, and there's a general pessimism about personal financial well-being. And that does change peoples' habits. Also some cities (New York and Boston in particular) do not do well when the stock market is down and the main financial services employers cut back-- knock on effects.

I think the data shows that consumer sentiment is particular skewed towards the gasoline price - perhaps because it's a price that most consumers experience every week when they refuel. (James Hamilton at UCSD is the academic who has made this argument). It also has particularly strong knock on effects on the sale of new light vehicles, a traditional sector (like homebuilding) that leads the US economy down when a recession starts.

Valuethinker
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:29 am

Dandy wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:20 am
Corrections are a buying opportunity and usually good for younger aggressive investors. If it turns out to be a black swan type of equity plunge that can be a different story. Companies fail, people lose jobs - even young aggressive investors. So, enjoy but be alert.

In 2008 I worked for a large brokerage/investment firm in their mutual fund department. How could a mortgage problem affect me? The firm had to cut costs, its stock plunged from over 100 to 8 and I was "retired" and the rest of the division was outsourced to a firm several states away. Lots of people of all ages and investment allocations were looking for work and there were no jobs available for quite awhile.

I'm hoping for a short lived buying opportunity and a quick recovery.
This is wise.

I have been affected by both tech downturns, and financial services downturns - just lucky that way ;-).

ge1
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by ge1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:38 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:23 am
ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...

I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.
It's nice to be contrarian, but I have considerable form on this.

In Q3 2008 I thought market weakness had gone on for long enough and so I made quite a few purchases. Q4 began with the default of Lehman Brothers - lost c. 50% of that new money in the next 6 months.

I did something similar in early 2000 as I recall (I may actually have been buying as the bear market was ongoing)-- probably blotted the memory as too painful ;-).

FWIW this does not feel like the beginnings of another bear market. But I am very good at "catching a falling knife" ;-).
Haha, I did exactly the same thing in 2008. I think it’s fairly typical for a value investor to be “early” and it’s impossible to time the lows perfectly.

I learned my lesson from 2008 and my allocation to safe assets is now much higher. I’m only 45% in stocks right now, I may go as high as 60% if valuations were very attractive.

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Starchild
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Starchild » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:43 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:09 am
Starchild wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 am
I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.
As did I and a lot of other people (year is not over yet). Think of it this way, if you would have not lost the money, would you have spent it or did you need to spend it over the next 10 years? If the answer is no, then just stay the course. If the answer is yes, then equities was/is not the place it should have been allocated to, it should have been in cash, cash equivalents and low duration fixed income or CDs.
No, it has nothing to do with staying the course. The OP is excited about a lost year. I'm not.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:47 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:23 am
ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...
I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.
It's nice to be contrarian, but I have considerable form on this.
In Q3 2008 I thought market weakness had gone on for long enough and so I made quite a few purchases. Q4 began with the default of Lehman Brothers - lost c. 50% of that new money in the next 6 months.
I did something similar in early 2000 as I recall (I may actually have been buying as the bear market was ongoing)-- probably blotted the memory as too painful ;-).
FWIW this does not feel like the beginnings of another bear market. But I am very good at "catching a falling knife" ;-).
I have always “talked the talk” about being a lump sum investor. And, in the past, I “walked the walk.” We recently closed on our old house (at a 20% discount, mind you). Aside from a planned dollar cost average into bonds, I am in no rush to invest the equities portion of this considerable lump of money. I feel better having a few years of expenses in a MM. I can deal with not finding the absolute bottom or missing out on some growth, but losing 50% of the value of our old house (that we bought and renovated for 25 years) would be emotionally problematic.
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rkhusky
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by rkhusky » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:51 am

ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...

I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.
Excited like a gambler gets when he puts it all on red?

You know there is no guarantee that the market will return to its peak within your lifetime, right?

ge1
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by ge1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:57 am

Excited like a shopper who gets a 30% discount on an item he wants to buy anyway.

Crisium
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Crisium » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:15 am

It's a great time for early accumulators.

As much as we'd like the stock market to be a zero duration bond with consistent 7-10% growth, it's not. But if it continues to average close to that range in the long run, then this is merely a pause in the growth and an opportunity for buying on discount.
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:51 am
Excited like a gambler gets when he puts it all on red?

You know there is no guarantee that the market will return to its peak within your lifetime, right?
Of course it could be down forever, that's a chance we take. But we're not even in a bear market territory, and anyone who after a smooth 2017 sailing didn't think we would have years with multiple corrections or a future bear doesn't understand what they are investing in. There's nothing happening that hasn't happened magnitudes worse before and we've always hit new highs.

Silk McCue
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Silk McCue » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:21 am

We are neither excited nor disheartened. Emotional investing is counter-productive to long term success.

We are 57/59 and and just 2 years shy of retirement. We like everyone that is paying attention knew that we could have a serious downturn prior to or during early retirement.

Thanks to Bogleheads we established an asset allocation that matched our need, willingness and ability to take risk about 3 years ago and have a firm plan in place to see us through. Nothing that is happening now will impact our retirement plans.

Cheers

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Cycle
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Cycle » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:22 am

I feel the same way, that the market has been inflated by low interest rates that they haven't raised significantly since the crash 10 years ago. I dca with weekly buys, so I'm not a market timer. When you can get decent returns elsewhere people will move their money there.

I'd like a more normal environment, but reality is that normal is swings from highs to lows with your occasional decade long flat line. I think we are in a decade long flat line, which is the worst for your heavily allocated stock investor.

Anyways in a correction if it's anything like the last one, expect year after year of annual firings if you work at a big company. If you work at a small company, don't be surprised if they close up shop. My recommendation, don't keep many personal things in the office.

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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:32 am

ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:57 am
Excited like a shopper who gets a 30% discount on an item he wants to buy anyway.
That is what Kohl’s is for!
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Bmac » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:37 am

I don’t find volatility exciting. I don’t enjoy seeing the economy crater, if that happens. Agree that it might be good for the young investor with a long time horizon. But I don’t think 2008 was particularly good for the many that lost their jobs, houses or both, regardless of age. It’s difficult to benefit from a major stock market correction if one has no new income to invest. I mich prefer a nice, steady, and stable world economy.

Jordan4FI
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Jordan4FI » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:39 am

Yes, I do hope for a bit more of a dip in share prices.. I am selling a foreign property next year and will be getting that $$ right into my Vanguard account.. Would be good to be able to get all those shares at prices the same as they were when I figured out how to really invest a few years ago...

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Kenkat
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Kenkat » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:49 am

I’m excited until it gets bad enough that it turns into a recession and my neighbor loses his job. Or worse, it becomes a depression and I lose my job.

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rob
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by rob » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:54 am

Kenkat wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:49 am
I’m excited until it gets bad enough that it turns into a recession and my neighbor loses his job. Or worse, it becomes a depression and I lose my job.
What he said.... I've been doing some rebalancing but otherwise not a whole lot of change.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

aerosurfer
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by aerosurfer » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:06 am

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:51 am
ge1 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:56 am
I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower levels. Maybe I’m just wired differently, but I get nervous when all asset classes just keep going up...

I don’t want to minimize the pain of losses, and as the 2008 crisis taught me there is a risk of investing / rebalancing too early and too quickly in sharp downturns.
Excited like a gambler gets when he puts it all on red?

You know there is no guarantee that the market will return to its peak within your lifetime, right?
Guarantee, no of course not. But if you read any of the Bogleheads literature and understand the math, believe in the economy of the US, and have a plan you are sticking to, then you know that markets are efficient, and most likely will continue to rise in the future.

Being in a position to weather the storm and capitalize on that are the variables that change for the individual, via their exposure (AA) and timeframe

Dottie57
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:10 am

Starchild wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 am
I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.
Retired and not too excited.

Irish Moss
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Irish Moss » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:14 am

As a new retiree it sucks bigly.

Sequence of risk returns is something that can seriously derail the best laid retirement plans and is a real risk.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:15 am

But if you read any of the Bogleheads literature and understand the math, believe in the economy of the US, and have a plan you are sticking to, then you know that markets are efficient, and most likely will continue to rise in the future.
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mhc
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by mhc » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:38 am

meh

Just another year closer to retirement. These years happen. I've been buying mutual funds for over 30 years. The market is what it is.

Now watching my children play basketball is exciting. Seeing a friend's son pull through life threatening surgery in flying colors is exciting. I also find the Nuggets 7 game win streak exciting. There are a lot more exciting things in life than investing.

deltaneutral83
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:43 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:23 am
In Q3 2008 I thought market weakness had gone on for long enough and so I made quite a few purchases. Q4 began with the default of Lehman Brothers - lost c. 50% of that new money in the next 6 months.
The entire market drop from Oct 2007 to March 2009 was 52% I recall. How did you lose 50% from Q3 2008 after we were halfway to the bottom?
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:51 am
You know there is no guarantee that the market will return to its peak within your lifetime, right?
We will have much bigger problems than losing a cushy retirement if the U.S. equity market doesn't reach an all time high over a lifetime (Or 30 years not sure the exact time frame you were indicating). It's certainly possible, but not much one can do about it other than glide into your asset allocation that you know you will stick to as the years go by. On another note, as frequently a posters talk about a 10-12% drop in equities as Armageddon (it's not) we have others who frequently post about the magical 25% discount. 10-12% corrections are frequent and 25%+ and up are not. If you wait around for 25% discounts you would be waiting more often than not, and if you sell every time we have a 10-12% correction you won't be in the market very long. Kind of seems like market timing is just not that wise :happy

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by LiterallyIronic » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:50 am

I thought this was going to be a thread about Super Smash Bros Ultimate being released tonight. I'm excited for that.

As for the stock market doing its thing, it sounds like a lot of people lost of lot of money. But my balance is still low enough that my contributions outweigh the losses. So my IRA and 401k balances have done nothing but go up all year. I finally reached 1x my gross salary in retirement funds, so that's exciting (but then I got a raise, so I'm back under 1x).

blackburnian
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by blackburnian » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:53 am

Starchild wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:35 am
I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.
Same here. I lump summed a large amount in late September, when total stock (VTI) was 150. Today it's 135. I am not excited.

mtmingus
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by mtmingus » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:56 am

Weak stock markets are not just lower prices for stocks, could usher weaker economy, weak job markets. This means, loss of jobs for some, lower cash flows/less money to spend for discretionary. Yes there are some fortunate few, they feel excited.

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Starchild
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Starchild » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:00 am

blackburnian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:53 am
Starchild wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:35 am
I lost a lot of money this year. That's not exciting.
Same here. I lump summed a large amount in late September, when total stock (VTI) was 150. Today it's 135. I am not excited.
That must be the case of the 1/3 of lump summing, as people point out here, that doesn't work out. I don't care what people preach here. I don't have good enough karma for lump summing.

hornet1
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by hornet1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:01 am

What are you ge1 doing to prep for this downturn?

For me the problem is we don't knowif the market will remain volatile for 1 year then crash. Or if the market will recover to highs then plateau for 3 years. Or if the market will crash next week 30-50%?

What if you ' go all in' and buy up in 2019 then there's a double dip recession in 2020, and then we go in to a Japan situation with stagnant growh for 20 years?

I think we're most likely going to see a 20-40% correction followed by 2 years of stagnation. But if that's the case then when do you 'buy'

What are your current portfolios right now if you're prepping for a 20-40% 'crash'. Are you accumulating CASH now? Do you sell your VTI index funds and put into BND? I don't understand if you should have a lot more bonds now because the rates are rising and we're likely going to see 0% interst rates if ther is a crash soon :oops:

rudeboy
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by rudeboy » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:05 am

Quick question: Given 2019 is a few weeks away, does it make sense to hold some cash on the sidelines until I can put it into a tax advantaged account, or to put all investable cash into a taxable account now?

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Will do good
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Will do good » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:05 am

The Dow closed on Dec. 29, 2017 @ 24,719.22, so how much did most people really lose this year?
So much drama :wink:

stocknoob4111
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:26 am

not quite sure i'm excited.. invested a large chunk of savings Jan 2018 after being on the sidelines for a long time, seeing that money vanish is not particularly exciting. The fact that many experts think that the next 10 years the markets may not even keep up with inflation is even more disturbing. Hopefully will be able to pick up stocks cheap in the next decade (2020-2030) and we will have a roaring decade after next one (2030-2040) where I will earn something.. I hope to retire in 2034 when I hit 60 so hopefully any damage to my portfolio would be repaired by that time.

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AnalogKid22
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:32 am

I'm excited to see bonds going up and glad I got out of international a 2 months ago.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

deltaneutral83
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:34 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:32 am
I'm excited to see bonds going up and glad I got out of international a 2 months ago.
VXUS is down less than VTI as it pertains to 60 days ago.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:36 am

It's gonna take a lot more than that to get me excited. [Solidly in retirement]

MJW
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Re: Who else is getting excited?

Post by MJW » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:41 am

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:36 am
It's gonna take a lot more than that to get me excited. [Solidly in retirement]
Well....Country Buffet is running a two-for-one special today?

:P

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