Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

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NYC_Guy
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by NYC_Guy » Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:59 pm

I have a serious investment in wine. It’s quite a liquid asset. Unfortunately, my investment manager eats (err...drinks) away at my returns.

In all seriousness, my wine purchases of left bank bordeaux in the 1990s would have returned over a 6x return (over 10x in some cases). And it would have been substantially uncorrelated with the US economy (far more correlated to the PRC economy). But I get far more enjoyment consuming my (wasting) asset. I just tell myself I’m drinking 1990 Latour that I purchased at $75 a bottle. And ignore the current auction prices of over $1000.

youngin87
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by youngin87 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:08 pm

Here's my story

I invested a substantial amount in crypto early Nov 2017. It pumped to 4.5x my initial investment and so I withdrew my initial investment. What was left of the profit fell to 10% throughout the course of the year. So now I'm just holding until the next pump.

I could have/should have withdrew 25-50% of the profit, but hindsight is 20/20.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:16 am

Watty wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:53 pm
coupleofcents wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm
What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come?
Bay Area housing.

There have been lots of threads about that along with other high cost of living areas.
SF Bay area housing has as far as I can tell, simply responded to market forces.

You have a booming tech industry willing to pay under 30s 200k + in some cases to work in the area.

You have the most profitable large companies in history (not sure if in real terms): Apple, Google, (Facebook makes high profit margins) - granted Microsoft and Amazon are Seattle not SV based, but they do have operations in SV? Plus a whole host of other companies valued in billions (Salesforce.com ). Google is like the Standard Oil of its age - complete domination of the internet search space (other than Facebook). Apple has sold over 1 billion smartphones at an average price of say $800/ phone? And it takes a revenue stream off every ap used on those phones.

So housing is hugely expensive. Speculative bubble? If there is a bubble it's in tech, but if that's a bubble it also has to encompass the fact that the above companies are some of the fastest growing, most pervasive, in history. And some of them mint money.

If the SV "bubble"/ VC bubble (I am much more convinced of the latter, having lived through the dot com downturn) pops then, yes, the housing market goes into a slump. A slump in a city (San Francisco) where a 1 bedroom can rent for $5k pcm is surely welcome?

HCOL areas generally? It depends on the strength of the local high paying industry. In particular tech in various places, securities industry in greater NYC, financial services + medical, etc. in Boston and so on.

There seems to have been a structural shift in US housing, beginning in the late 1970s, that has put a group of cities on a permanently higher plain re price/ income, price/ rent multiples. Mostly coastal cities with controls on &/or geographic constraints on sprawl* - think NYC, Boston, LA, SF, Seattle, Washington DC v. Atlanta, Houston, DFW (or Chicago as a city that hasn't grown much but has benefited from centralization of service industries and less hurt by decline of manufacturing than most of the Midwest). Hence HCOL cities.

Are there real estate bubbles in the US? Cities that are overextended. Undoubtedly, yes. But I have not seen any evidence that this is a general phenomenon.

If you want *real* housing bubbles then look at Vancouver, Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, possibly Hong Kong & Singapore & Stockholm (not sure on those). Cities where price/ income ratios are way way out of line with historic averages, and where it's hard to explain the strength in housing prices without resorting to observations about international capital mobility and the strength of housing and housing related financial services.

Those cities smell a lot more like "bubbles" of the USA 2006 type.

* really a combination of geographic restraints and laws which prevent higher density (NIMBY in the round). Berkeley CA's fight to prevent the construction of housing on top of a parking lot for the BART comes to mind.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:33 am

NYC_Guy wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:59 pm
I have a serious investment in wine. It’s quite a liquid asset. Unfortunately, my investment manager eats (err...drinks) away at my returns.

In all seriousness, my wine purchases of left bank bordeaux in the 1990s would have returned over a 6x return (over 10x in some cases). And it would have been substantially uncorrelated with the US economy (far more correlated to the PRC economy). But I get far more enjoyment consuming my (wasting) asset. I just tell myself I’m drinking 1990 Latour that I purchased at $75 a bottle. And ignore the current auction prices of over $1000.
I am always pretty sceptical of indices of "exotic" investments like wine, cars etc.

For one thing, the bid-offer spreads are huge (I think Sotheby's and Christies charge 25% commission).

For another I doubt they are as uncorrelated as "stale pricing" indices would indicate - a fall in the stock market is followed by a fall in art prices at sales, with a lag.

You have the right attitude - you don't have to believe in a single divine being to understand the point that "God made this thing (caused man to make this thing) to be enjoyed in its consumption, not greedily coveted". A colleague buys musical instruments, but they have a musical family - buying an expensive musical instrument just to own it, not use it, is a sin (again you don't have to subscribe to a particular theological view to accept that point; it's a philosophical one). A thing is only true in its beauty and its place in the universe when it is used for that which it is made*. A painting that sits in a vault, not on display, is simply a measure of human frailty.

* that won't explain the Liberty Bells. But they did ring, once - their retirement is simply a function of age. One could make that argument about weapon systems, of course. Atomic bombs. That said, there's few more magnificent things than a Spitfire in flight, as the pilot opens the throttle and the Merlin engine sings.

The current enthusiasm for collectible assets is, to my mind, a function of negative real interest rates (negative cost of carry) and soaring asset markets in general. Come the next downturn liquidity will collapse and the market will be filled with forced sellers.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:39 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:33 am
For one thing, the bid-offer spreads are huge (I think Sotheby's and Christies charge 25% commission).
The buyer pays 10%. I sell loosie cigars on the corner. Stand on the corner, get money and **** *******.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:19 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:50 pm
coupleofcents wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm
I never bought a single crypto currency, but I can't lie that the spirited discussions had on this forum provided much amusement.

Crypto currencies seem to be the total antithesis to Boglehead philosophy. I feel like we keep losing competing philosophies as inflows to index funds keep rising.

Question:

What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come?
I think real estate investing is the strongest "competing philosophy" to a buy and hold strategic asset allocation of broadly diversified low cost index funds with some factor investing probably the next strongest. I dip into both with my portfolio.

The rest of the stuff noted above (including cryptocurrency) is just silliness. I mean, I literally put cryptocurrency into the same category as Beanie Babies- instruments of speculation. This is my favorite Beanie Baby picture:

https://www.google.com/search?q=beanie+ ... E_iB2UARdM:
That picture. Wow. Thanks for sharing. So sad by so funny at the same time.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:24 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:02 pm
I never bothered to read any of the crypto threads. I'm here for the stocks and bonds, not the alternative investments.
The way I see it, discussions about stocks and bonds are like the main course. Threads of the crypto ilk are like dessert, not necessary, probably bad for you, but oh so delicious.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 am

amphora wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:25 pm
coupleofcents wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm
Question:

What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come?
Real estate. RE investors already have many many forums to discussing ideas.
I think you're right. Real estate has a longer tenure for building wealth than really any other medium. Now recently, a lot of start-ups are trying to make real estate like stocks, where you can be a very passive investor and broadly diversified... you see the explosion of crowd funding real estate platforms.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Watty » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:40 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:16 am
Google is like the Standard Oil of its age....
That should be a scary analogy if you own Bay Area real estate.

Standard Oil caused Cleveland to boom but Cleveland's golden age is far in the past.

The Bay area has a population of around seven million people but world wide Google has around 85,000 employees with maybe 30,000(probably less) in the Bay Area.

I would be surprised if there are more than a half a million highly paid tech workers in the Bay Area.

There is no doubt that highly paid tech workers are fueling housing prices there but the low interest rates were too since with a 3% mortage people could afford to pay a lot for a house.

Mortgage rates are already close to 5% and it is unlikely that RSUs will keep doubling or tripling before they vest so the days of easy money fueling a housing boom may be numbered. That is not to say what the housing there will ever cost the same as in Cleveland but it could go from costing ten times the national average to "just" costing 5 times the national average.

(Measuring tech workers gets complicated since someone who works on the Geek Squad at the Silicon Valley Best Buy is a tech worker but likely not highly paid. Likewise a payroll clerk at Google is in some ways a tech worker and may get great pay for what they do, but overall would not be classified as highly paid. )

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:50 am

Watty wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:40 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:16 am
Google is like the Standard Oil of its age....
That should be a scary analogy if you own Bay Area real estate.

Standard Oil caused Cleveland to boom but Cleveland's golden age is far in the past.
And indeed it might end like that - government ordered breakup (not necessarily the US government).
The Bay area has a population of around seven million people but world wide Google has around 85,000 employees with maybe 30,000(probably less) in the Bay Area.

I would be surprised if there are more than a half a million highly paid tech workers in the Bay Area.
The number I saw once for the Securities Industry in New York was something like 350k. Yet there's no doubt that's why a good wine waiter in Manhattan can make $80-100k, apparently. And all those lawyers. IT consultants, etc.
There is no doubt that highly paid tech workers are fueling housing prices there but the low interest rates were too since with a 3% mortage people could afford to pay a lot for a house.

Mortgage rates are already close to 5% and it is unlikely that RSUs will keep doubling or tripling before they vest so the days of easy money fueling a housing boom may be numbered. That is not to say what the housing there will ever cost the same as in Cleveland but it could go from costing ten times the national average to "just" costing 5 times the national average.
Yes. But it's not so much a financial bubble as secular demand for property due to a booming economy (the spillover effects of all those RSUs being cashed in and being spent, as well as very high salaries) and a constrained supply side response - they can't build new housing fast enough in the right places. Palo Alto does not want to have 40 storey condo blocks? (and yet that's what the housing costs would mandate).

I take the point about rising mortgage rates, and that effect will be felt directly as first time buyers are priced out - but that hasn't happened yet, has it? i.e. housing prices falling due to rising mortgage rates in the Bay area?
(Measuring tech workers gets complicated since someone who works on the Geek Squad at the Silicon Valley Best Buy is a tech worker but likely not highly paid. Likewise a payroll clerk at Google is in some ways a tech worker and may get great pay for what they do, but overall would not be classified as highly paid. )
You will also have auditors, and lawyers, and doctors, and all the other parts of the service economy. Stanford University professors (presumably the University offers subsidized housing?). Even the schoolteachers will be well paid (given the high cost of living).

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:00 am

coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 am
I think you're right. Real estate has a longer tenure for building wealth than really any other medium.
Real estate has some very favorable tax laws writing off deprecation and expenses. It is not something to dabble in though as the big boys will crush you like a grape.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:16 am

Bitcoin and "crypto" is are either "flash in the pans" (betamax) or way way ahead of their time (Apple, DOS, Yahoo, Netscape).

But . . . which one? :shock:

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:19 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:00 am
coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 am
I think you're right. Real estate has a longer tenure for building wealth than really any other medium.
Real estate has some very favorable tax laws writing off deprecation and expenses. It is not something to dabble in though as the big boys will crush you like a grape.
Posts and threads by "denovo" and "WanderingDoc" explore this in depth.
:happy

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:26 am

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:16 am
Bitcoin and "crypto" is are either "flash in the pans" (betamax) or way way ahead of their time (Apple, DOS, Yahoo, Netscape).

But . . . which one? :shock:
Block chain is here to stay. If any "coin" survives it will be BTC just because it is the most widely held. I don't see how any coin can survive relying on voluntary miners.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Watty » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:26 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:50 am
Even the schoolteachers will be well paid (given the high cost of living).
Not as much as you might think, about $71,000 a year.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/san- ... KO9,16.htm

When I lived there (which was long ago) people in jobs like that really struggled unless they had a spouse that had a high paying job.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/10/ ... rs/572665/

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by nisiprius » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am

Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm
Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:52 am

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm
Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
"The United States happened into Empire accidentally" was one quote I read. Which was certainly not true if you lived in New Mexico, say, but I am not sure what all the motivations were regarding the Spanish-American war-- with the exception of Puerto Rico I think all the territories acquired were given independence eventually.

The Japanese got the Marianas as a prize from WW1 for siding with the Allies against Germany (some Japanese destroyers actually did convoy duty in the Mediterranean, and there was I think something of a siege at Tsingtao in China where the Germans had a territorial concession).

The Americans then inherited them as a prize from WW2.

Unfortunately for the people of the Marianas, that was just when open air nuclear testing took off.

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:19 am

Watty wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:26 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:50 am
Even the schoolteachers will be well paid (given the high cost of living).
Not as much as you might think, about $71,000 a year.
$71,009/yr

36% above national average

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Nestegg_User » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:52 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm
Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
Nisi

I was familiar with the Chile/Peru history and especially it’s effect on the Chilean economy, as they had been one of the major beneficiaries of the trade. My recollection was that the island possessions were largely the need for refueling for the “Great White Fleet” which needed reserves of coal for their boilers in order for easier transit around the Pacific to further the Mahan Doctrine. The earlier german or dutch possessions couldn’t be considered reliable to use, and based on the early Sino-Soviet war, other countries were also heavily in the mix for dominance in the Pacific. The US was vying for some level of competition; obviously, the Philippines were viewed as the crown jewel of those possessions.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by hilink73 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:33 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:21 pm
Beanie Babies
Active management
Magic the Gathering cards
Yu-Gi-Oh! cards
Circle of Gold
You do realize the blockchain technology and some "coins" do have use cases?
And I do not mean Bitcoin.
Comparison to MtG or Beanie Babies (what ever this is) says nothing. Maybe not understanding what this is about...

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by hilink73 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:34 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:46 pm


By the way, at the time of this writing BTC is trading for $3737 a coin. Remember it was around $20,000 this time last year. How many of your "investments" have lost 80+% in a single year? Individual stocks, maybe.
And I care for -80% a year when I'm up a few 100%?
Just asking for a friend.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:52 pm

hilink73 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:34 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:46 pm


By the way, at the time of this writing BTC is trading for $3737 a coin. Remember it was around $20,000 this time last year. How many of your "investments" have lost 80+% in a single year? Individual stocks, maybe.
And I care for -80% a year when I'm up a few 100%?
Just asking for a friend.
The U.S. stock market in total is up a few 100% too (just since 2009) and far more diversified and far less risk than BTC:

source:
https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D

btw, it's now at $3576 as of the time of this writing...so it's down even more than the last time I posted.
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by hilink73 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:17 am

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:52 pm
hilink73 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:34 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:46 pm


By the way, at the time of this writing BTC is trading for $3737 a coin. Remember it was around $20,000 this time last year. How many of your "investments" have lost 80+% in a single year? Individual stocks, maybe.
And I care for -80% a year when I'm up a few 100%?
Just asking for a friend.
The U.S. stock market in total is up a few 100% too (just since 2009) and far more diversified and far less risk than BTC:

source:
https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D

btw, it's now at $3576 as of the time of this writing...so it's down even more than the last time I posted.
Okay, okay, you got me here.
Make it a few 1000%. Depending on the "coin".
Better? :-D Have a great weekend, guys.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Ged » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:37 am

Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
Useful at one time but the Black Swan of the Haber - Bosch Process crashed that market.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:10 am

Nestegg_User wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:52 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm
Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
Nisi

I was familiar with the Chile/Peru history and especially it’s effect on the Chilean economy, as they had been one of the major beneficiaries of the trade. My recollection was that the island possessions were largely the need for refueling for the “Great White Fleet” which needed reserves of coal for their boilers in order for easier transit around the Pacific to further the Mahan Doctrine. The earlier german or dutch possessions couldn’t be considered reliable to use, and based on the early Sino-Soviet war, other countries were also heavily in the mix for dominance in the Pacific. The US was vying for some level of competition; obviously, the Philippines were viewed as the crown jewel of those possessions.
"early Sino-Soviet war"? Which war do you mean?

Soviet Union did not exist before 1917 (not actually sure when it was declared the USSR - but definitely by 1922 at the end of the Russian Civil War).

China and Russia (under the Czars of the Romanov dynasty, then), AFAIK, have never fought a war? Russian troops may have participated in the Boxer Rebellion, where the foreign powers who had concessions in China banded together to rescue their civilians in Beijing and crush a spontaneous national uprising. Post 1921 some White Russians escaped to China and served with Chinese warlords (sometimes against the Red Army).

The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 was quite late in the period of Mahan and navalism.

The Russian Pacific fleet having been defeated and the rest caught in Port Arthur in China, the Russian naval base which was under siege, the Russian Atlantic and Baltic fleets sailed all the way around the world. Britain was a traditional ally of Japan and in fact had constructed their first battleships. In addition, due to rumours of Japanese torpedo boats, the Russians opened fire on British fishing trawlers off Scotland. This led to a closing of the British coaling ports around the world to the Russian fleet, and the Suez canal, which led to a much longer and more difficult sea voyage.

The Russian fleet tried to get to Vladivostok but it was demoralized. The Japanese scattered it and crushed it. One of the greatest surface naval victories in history. And a shock to the European world, which had comfortably assumed that no one could defeat a major "white" power.

A fixation on their great naval victory at Tsushima led the Japanese to pursue an incorrect strategy against the USA in WW2.

My grandfather was at the first battle of the Falklands, which was between German & British warships and had been partly about control over the vital supply of Chilean guano to make explosives for shells in the early days of WW1.

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by PVW » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:17 am

NYC_Guy wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:59 pm
I have a serious investment in wine. It’s quite a liquid asset. Unfortunately, my investment manager eats (err...drinks) away at my returns.

In all seriousness, my wine purchases of left bank bordeaux in the 1990s would have returned over a 6x return (over 10x in some cases). And it would have been substantially uncorrelated with the US economy (far more correlated to the PRC economy). But I get far more enjoyment consuming my (wasting) asset. I just tell myself I’m drinking 1990 Latour that I purchased at $75 a bottle. And ignore the current auction prices of over $1000.
Wine investing deserves much more discussion on this board. It's completely legit* https://www.liv-ex.com/, but I have a severe problem sticking to a buy and hold strategy (I've only implemented half this strategy). Maybe some encouragement from Bogleheads would help.

My other pet investing interest is vintage guitars. Also completely legit and underappreciated on this board, https://www.anchorage-cim.com/page3

These assets have shown impressive appreciation and should also appeal to the doomsday gold, silver, crypto crowd. When the apocalypse comes, those with wine and guitars are going to be the ones to lead us into blissful oblivion.

*(Completely legit = as legit as crypto investing)

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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:57 am

PVW wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:17 am
My other pet investing interest is vintage guitars.
They are stored in a temperature and humidity controlled vault. like my cigars. I assume. :confused

pdavi21
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by pdavi21 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:03 pm

Private equity.

Whakamole
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Whakamole » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:04 pm

averagedude wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:28 pm
Something not mentioned yet, but is a huge speculative investment right now is marijuana stocks. It is in its genesis and could be a huge growth industry in the future. Im only going to invest the amount that is in the indexes.
Last I checked, VSS (Vanguard International Small-Cap) had two or three Canadian marijuana stocks in the top 10 holdings.

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:28 pm

pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:03 pm
Private equity.
Oh ya, be like Mr. Wonderful and crush them like the cockroaches they are. :greedy

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:38 pm

hilink73 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:17 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:52 pm
hilink73 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:34 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:46 pm


By the way, at the time of this writing BTC is trading for $3737 a coin. Remember it was around $20,000 this time last year. How many of your "investments" have lost 80+% in a single year? Individual stocks, maybe.
And I care for -80% a year when I'm up a few 100%?
Just asking for a friend.
The U.S. stock market in total is up a few 100% too (just since 2009) and far more diversified and far less risk than BTC:

source:
https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D

btw, it's now at $3576 as of the time of this writing...so it's down even more than the last time I posted.
Okay, okay, you got me here.
Make it a few 1000%. Depending on the "coin".
Better? :-D Have a great weekend, guys.
you too! (have a good weekend).

as of this writing btc is down further to $3379 a coin.

sorry, couldn't resist.
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

Jeff Albertson
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Jeff Albertson » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:50 pm

John McAfee one year ago today, Dec 7, 2017
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/stat ... 9282190337

Nate79
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Nate79 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:11 pm

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:50 pm
John McAfee one year ago today, Dec 7, 2017
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/stat ... 9282190337
LOL! :oops:

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Nestegg_User
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Nestegg_User » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:13 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:10 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:52 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm
Kiter wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Stockpiled guano
I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
Nisi

I was familiar with the Chile/Peru history and especially it’s effect on the Chilean economy, as they had been one of the major beneficiaries of the trade. My recollection was that the island possessions were largely the need for refueling for the “Great White Fleet” which needed reserves of coal for their boilers in order for easier transit around the Pacific to further the Mahan Doctrine. The earlier german or dutch possessions couldn’t be considered reliable to use, and based on the early Sino-Soviet war, other countries were also heavily in the mix for dominance in the Pacific. The US was vying for some level of competition; obviously, the Philippines were viewed as the crown jewel of those possessions.
"early Sino-Soviet war"? Which war do you mean?

Soviet Union did not exist before 1917 (not actually sure when it was declared the USSR - but definitely by 1922 at the end of the Russian Civil War).

China and Russia (under the Czars of the Romanov dynasty, then), AFAIK, have never fought a war? Russian troops may have participated in the Boxer Rebellion, where the foreign powers who had concessions in China banded together to rescue their civilians in Beijing and crush a spontaneous national uprising. Post 1921 some White Russians escaped to China and served with Chinese warlords (sometimes against the Red Army).

The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 was quite late in the period of Mahan and navalism.

The Russian Pacific fleet having been defeated and the rest caught in Port Arthur in China, the Russian naval base which was under siege, the Russian Atlantic and Baltic fleets sailed all the way around the world. Britain was a traditional ally of Japan and in fact had constructed their first battleships. In addition, due to rumours of Japanese torpedo boats, the Russians opened fire on British fishing trawlers off Scotland. This led to a closing of the British coaling ports around the world to the Russian fleet, and the Suez canal, which led to a much longer and more difficult sea voyage.

The Russian fleet tried to get to Vladivostok but it was demoralized. The Japanese scattered it and crushed it. One of the greatest surface naval victories in history. And a shock to the European world, which had comfortably assumed that no one could defeat a major "white" power.

A fixation on their great naval victory at Tsushima led the Japanese to pursue an incorrect strategy against the USA in WW2.

My grandfather was at the first battle of the Falklands, which was between German & British warships and had been partly about control over the vital supply of Chilean guano to make explosives for shells in the early days of WW1.

sorry, Valuethinker
should have said Russo-Japanese (the one that got Teddy his peace prize), { not the 1929 stuff}
as far as Mahan Doctrine, it was still going until his death in ‘21 although much downplayed and not fully subscribed. The around the world run of the Great White Fleet from 1907-09 was effectively the embodiment of the Mahan Doctrine expression by Teddy Roosevelt (former asst sec of the navy). (as we know, Teddy also started the Panama Canal in 1904 (outgrowth of the early 1846 Millarno-Bidlack treaty and the later Clayton-Bulwer treaty, later acknowledged by the brits in a 1902 treaty), which was viewed as both a boon to commerce and to the ability of the (limited) naval force to provide US influence. {as an aside, the history of how Hawaii first became a US territory is somewhat instructive on how the US viewed itself from a global expansionist perspective. we won’t even go into the role of the US in central america (panama from Columbia) or US intervention in Venezuela at the turn of the century vis-a-vis the “gunboat diplomacy” of the era}

WanderingDoc
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by WanderingDoc » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:34 pm

Watty wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:53 pm
coupleofcents wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm
What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come?
Bay Area housing.

There have been lots of threads about that along with other high cost of living areas.
Housing in the Bay Area have enjoyed a 8% year over year appreciation, and 6% annualized rent growth since the early 1970s. Compound that appreciation and cash flow with principal paydown by tenants, not paying any taxes on rental income, and inflation hedging/profiting from a 30 year fixed loan (5 simultaneous real estate profit centers) and it's no surprise that Bay Area real estate investors are multi-millionaires.

When it comes to real estate, it's all about "timing the market (location)" 8-) Even if this appreciation happened for 60 more years, I bet you a donut that folks here would still say "real estate appreciates 3% per year, Case-Schiller told me so!"
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:54 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:11 pm
Jeff Albertson wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:50 pm
John McAfee one year ago today, Dec 7, 2017
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/stat ... 9282190337
LOL! :oops:
you think that's funny, you haven't seen the worst of John McAfee's prediction (stay tuned til 12/31/2020):

https://bircoin.top/
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

Mickey7
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Mickey7 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:03 pm

Wow from Crypto to marijuana, what a choice! Do I want my money to go gown the drain or u[ in smoke? BTW I wouldn't even touch the guano!

:D

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:41 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:54 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:11 pm
Jeff Albertson wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:50 pm
John McAfee one year ago today, Dec 7, 2017
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/stat ... 9282190337
LOL! :oops:
you think that's funny, you haven't seen the worst of John McAfee's prediction (stay tuned til 12/31/2020):

https://bircoin.top/
This is John McAfee YouTube. This is why he makes those predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKgf5PaBzyg

Whakamole
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Whakamole » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:01 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:41 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:54 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:11 pm
Jeff Albertson wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:50 pm
John McAfee one year ago today, Dec 7, 2017
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/stat ... 9282190337
LOL! :oops:
you think that's funny, you haven't seen the worst of John McAfee's prediction (stay tuned til 12/31/2020):

https://bircoin.top/
This is John McAfee YouTube. This is why he makes those predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKgf5PaBzyg
That's also why I wonder if his tweet had a bit of sarcasm - "new paradigm" was a big catchphrase during the dotcom bubble which Mr. McAfee would remember.

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:56 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:01 am
That's also why I wonder if his tweet had a bit of sarcasm - "new paradigm" was a big catchphrase during the dotcom bubble which Mr. McAfee would remember.
He is hanging with strippers and laughing his butt off;. He has freedom, freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose as can't use his name in any business.

Jags4186
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:10 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:39 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:33 am
For one thing, the bid-offer spreads are huge (I think Sotheby's and Christies charge 25% commission).
The buyer pays 10%. I sell loosie cigars on the corner. Stand on the corner, get money and **** *******.
I always thought the commission was 5%. That’s why historically bids were placed in Guineas and payments to the sellers were made in Pounds Sterling. The auction house made 1 Schilling for every Guinea bid. 20 Schilling to a Pound, 21 Schilling to a Guinea.

Valuethinker
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:22 pm

Nestegg_User wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:13 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:10 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:52 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:35 am
Nestegg_User wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm


I wouldn’t invest in that $hit :wink:
There was a very interesting "100% Invisible" (podcast) on Guano Mania that is well worth listening to (or reading). If you've ever wondered why the United States has all of those scattered possession in the Pacific, that's the answer, with all kinds of intriguing international sidelights:
the guano islands would not be considered as subject to the sovereignty of the U.S. but rather as “appertaining” to the United States. While few knew what this meant from a legal perspective, it was softer than claiming full ownership.
Nisi

I was familiar with the Chile/Peru history and especially it’s effect on the Chilean economy, as they had been one of the major beneficiaries of the trade. My recollection was that the island possessions were largely the need for refueling for the “Great White Fleet” which needed reserves of coal for their boilers in order for easier transit around the Pacific to further the Mahan Doctrine. The earlier german or dutch possessions couldn’t be considered reliable to use, and based on the early Sino-Soviet war, other countries were also heavily in the mix for dominance in the Pacific. The US was vying for some level of competition; obviously, the Philippines were viewed as the crown jewel of those possessions.
"early Sino-Soviet war"? Which war do you mean?

Soviet Union did not exist before 1917 (not actually sure when it was declared the USSR - but definitely by 1922 at the end of the Russian Civil War).

China and Russia (under the Czars of the Romanov dynasty, then), AFAIK, have never fought a war? Russian troops may have participated in the Boxer Rebellion, where the foreign powers who had concessions in China banded together to rescue their civilians in Beijing and crush a spontaneous national uprising. Post 1921 some White Russians escaped to China and served with Chinese warlords (sometimes against the Red Army).

The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 was quite late in the period of Mahan and navalism.

The Russian Pacific fleet having been defeated and the rest caught in Port Arthur in China, the Russian naval base which was under siege, the Russian Atlantic and Baltic fleets sailed all the way around the world. Britain was a traditional ally of Japan and in fact had constructed their first battleships. In addition, due to rumours of Japanese torpedo boats, the Russians opened fire on British fishing trawlers off Scotland. This led to a closing of the British coaling ports around the world to the Russian fleet, and the Suez canal, which led to a much longer and more difficult sea voyage.

The Russian fleet tried to get to Vladivostok but it was demoralized. The Japanese scattered it and crushed it. One of the greatest surface naval victories in history. And a shock to the European world, which had comfortably assumed that no one could defeat a major "white" power.

A fixation on their great naval victory at Tsushima led the Japanese to pursue an incorrect strategy against the USA in WW2.

My grandfather was at the first battle of the Falklands, which was between German & British warships and had been partly about control over the vital supply of Chilean guano to make explosives for shells in the early days of WW1.

sorry, Valuethinker
should have said Russo-Japanese (the one that got Teddy his peace prize), { not the 1929 stuff}
as far as Mahan Doctrine, it was still going until his death in ‘21 although much downplayed and not fully subscribed. The around the world run of the Great White Fleet from 1907-09 was effectively the embodiment of the Mahan Doctrine expression by Teddy Roosevelt (former asst sec of the navy). (as we know, Teddy also started the Panama Canal in 1904 (outgrowth of the early 1846 Millarno-Bidlack treaty and the later Clayton-Bulwer treaty, later acknowledged by the brits in a 1902 treaty), which was viewed as both a boon to commerce and to the ability of the (limited) naval force to provide US influence. {as an aside, the history of how Hawaii first became a US territory is somewhat instructive on how the US viewed itself from a global expansionist perspective. we won’t even go into the role of the US in central america (panama from Columbia) or US intervention in Venezuela at the turn of the century vis-a-vis the “gunboat diplomacy” of the era}
Thank you.

Your knowledge of American history is far superior to mine and complementary to my Imperial history ;-).

AlphaLess
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:52 pm

Waiting for days when bitcoin price will be 3 digits, no comma needed.
Takes too much space to type the price these days.

Of course, no objective to two digit price either, but as the saying goes, one step at a time.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

J G Bankerton
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:41 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:10 pm

I always thought the commission was 5%.
I looked, that 10% is car auctions. Fancy crap can be 25%
https://www.christies.com/features/guid ... lang=fr-fr

Jags4186
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:20 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:41 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:10 pm

I always thought the commission was 5%.
I looked, that 10% is car auctions. Fancy crap can be 25%
https://www.christies.com/features/guid ... lang=fr-fr
Very interesting! Quite a haircut...

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Tycoon
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Tycoon » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:22 pm

Nope, don't miss the crypto rage, but I do miss the Munchkin man.
Appeal to Pity:When pity is envoked to support a statement | Appeal to Popular Sentiment:Appealing to unrelated prejudices and attitudes | Hasty Generalization:Too little evidence to support the conclusion

Jeff Albertson
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Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Post by Jeff Albertson » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:55 pm

rates for Sotheby's & Christie's
Christie's: For all collecting categories except wine, the new buyer's premium rate will be an amount equal to 25% of the hammer price of each lot up to and including £175,000/US$250,000; plus 20% of the hammer price from £175,001/US$250,001 up to and including £3,000,000/US$4,000,000 and 12.5% above £3,000,001/US$4,000,001.

Sotheby's: As of June 2, 2018, Sotheby’s Buyer’s Premium for auctions excluding sales in Paris and Milan will be: 25% of the hammer price up to and including $300,000, 20% of any amounts in excess of $300,000 up to and including $4,000,000, and 12.9% of any amounts in excess of $4,000,000,

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