Gelsomina wrote: ↑Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:50 pm
I've been tracking the details on the L Fund allocations/glide paths for a long time and prior to the announcement of the glide path changes. It was tedious but I collected the quarterly allocations in the L2030, L2020, and L Income into a spreadsheet because I wasn't happy with the L2020 glide path; it was too conservative for me retiring in 2022 based on what I like to see in my Vanguard IRA glide path. My aim was for a 70/30 mix at retirement.
The L Income was set with allocations of "bonds" (for lack of better word) 80% and stocks 20%. The L2020 and L2030 were comparatively about 10% more conservative that I wanted as well. So my solution was a combined L2020/L2030 blend to achieve a glide path with a resultant 70/30 mix for my personal retirement timeframe thrown in (April 2022).
I thought that the changes to the Lifecycle Funds would be good, but it's actually destroyed the traditional concept of glide paths because they're implementing them over a long period of time. This morning I collected the new quarterly allocation percentages for the L2030, L2020, and L Income for January 2019 and beyond.
And now I understand why they did NOT mention the L2020 in any of those information releases. It's not a gradually down-sloping path, it's a weird mogul path. It's still too conservative maintaining the old glide path from January 2019 to July 2020, then starts increasing risk October 2020 to April 2028. It stays too "low risk" early on then increases risk too late (increases risk the in retirement).
The L Income has slowly increasing risk. I sense that maybe there's some issue that makes easing into higher risk make sense when you're no longer putting new money into the TSP, and not in the workforce?
I'm still in the workforce, have the option of staying there past my target of April 2022, and still putting new money into the TSP. It doesn't really make sense for me to put my money in the new L2020 with that weird mogul glide path, or a combination L2020/L2030, or the L2030.
I guess that means I need to go back to creating my own "lifecycle" by directly investing in the G,F,C,S,I. It is a huge pain in the butt because I cannot fine tune allocations (TSP only allow whole percentages), and then I have to be messing around with it at least quarterly if not monthly or every paycheck in order to maintain my glide path. That feels like timing the market or at least gives me the anxiety of market timing. And I worry looking at it or touching allocations that often will be a huge temptation to start playing games instead of sticking to my plan.
Also, I find it extremely irritating that they elected to boost all I Fund allocations in the Lifecycles in January 2019 without providing information on whether or not the proposed changes to the I Fund are in place or not. Are we just supposed to assume the changes will be in place because they increased the allocations by 5% across all Lifecycle Funds? [I Fund will supposedly stop tracking the Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE) in 2019 and will begin tracking the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Ex-US Investable Market Index (MSCI ACWI Ex-US IMI)]. I don't want to boost my I Fund allocation when it might still just be the MSCI EAFE.
QUESTIONS:
Did the TSP Board think it would be too much of a shock to everyone and the system to just warn everyone in advance that they were going to go to corrected allocations all at once in January 2019? Is there some kind of good reason to slowly ramp up? If there is a good reason, the TSP Board is not sharing it with us.
Anyway, here are the old L2020 and L2030 glide paths, and the new ones:
old L2020 glide slope prior to Jan 2019
Qtr G F C S I "Bonds" Stocks Total
Jan-17 52.94% 6.06% 22.68% 6.02% 12.30% 59.00% 41.00% 100%
Apr-17 54.30% 6.20% 21.86% 5.79% 11.85% 60.50% 39.50% 100%
Jul-17 55.68% 6.32% 21.04% 5.56% 11.40% 62.00% 38.00% 100%
Oct-17 57.08% 6.42% 20.22% 5.33% 10.95% 63.50% 36.50% 100%
Jan-18 58.50% 6.50% 19.40% 5.10% 10.50% 65.00% 35.00% 100%
Apr-18 60.05% 6.45% 18.58% 4.87% 10.05% 66.50% 33.50% 100%
Jul-18 61.60% 6.40% 17.76% 4.64% 9.60% 68.00% 32.00% 100%
Oct-18 63.15% 6.35% 16.94% 4.41% 9.15% 69.50% 30.50% 100%
Jan-19 64.70% 6.30% 16.12% 4.18% 8.70% 71.00% 29.00% 100%
Apr-19 66.25% 6.25% 15.30% 3.95% 8.25% 72.50% 27.50% 100%
Jul-19 67.80% 6.20% 14.48% 3.72% 7.80% 74.00% 26.00% 100%
Oct-19 69.35% 6.15% 13.66% 3.49% 7.35% 75.50% 24.50% 100%
Jan-20 70.90% 6.10% 12.84% 3.26% 6.90% 77.00% 23.00% 100%
Apr-20 72.45% 6.05% 12.02% 3.03% 6.45% 78.50% 21.50% 100%
Jul-20 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
Oct-20 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
Jan-21 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
old L2030 glide slope prior to Jan 2019
Qtr G F C S I "Bonds" Stocks Total
Jan-17 31.21% 6.04% 34.14% 9.78% 18.83% 37.25% 62.75% 100%
Apr-17 31.44% 6.19% 33.95% 9.71% 18.71% 37.63% 62.37% 100%
Jul-17 31.67% 6.33% 33.76% 9.64% 18.60% 38.00% 62.00% 100%
Oct-17 31.91% 6.47% 33.56% 9.57% 18.49% 38.38% 61.62% 100%
Jan-18 32.16% 6.59% 33.37% 9.50% 18.38% 38.75% 61.25% 100%
Apr-18 32.42% 6.71% 33.18% 9.43% 18.26% 39.13% 60.87% 100%
Jul-18 32.69% 6.81% 32.99% 9.36% 18.15% 39.50% 60.50% 100%
Oct-18 32.96% 6.92% 32.79% 9.29% 18.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100%
Jan-19 33.25% 7.00% 32.60% 9.22% 17.93% 40.25% 59.75% 100%
Apr-19 33.54% 7.09% 32.41% 9.15% 17.81% 40.63% 59.37% 100%
Jul-19 33.84% 7.16% 32.22% 9.08% 17.70% 41.00% 59.00% 100%
Oct-19 34.14% 7.24% 32.02% 9.01% 17.59% 41.38% 58.62% 100%
Jan-20 34.46% 7.29% 31.83% 8.94% 17.48% 41.75% 58.25% 100%
Apr-20 34.78% 7.35% 31.64% 8.87% 17.36% 42.13% 57.87% 100%
Jul-20 35.11% 7.39% 31.45% 8.80% 17.25% 42.50% 57.50% 100%
Oct-20 35.45% 7.43% 31.25% 8.73% 17.14% 42.88% 57.12% 100%
Jan-21 35.80% 7.45% 31.06% 8.66% 17.03% 43.25% 56.75% 100%
Apr-21 36.20% 7.43% 30.87% 8.59% 16.91% 43.63% 56.37% 100%
Jul-21 36.60% 7.40% 30.67% 8.52% 16.80% 44.00% 55.99% 100%
Oct-21 37.00% 7.38% 30.48% 8.45% 16.69% 44.38% 55.62% 100%
Jan-22 37.40% 7.35% 30.29% 8.38% 16.58% 44.75% 55.25% 100%
Apr-22 37.80% 7.33% 30.10% 8.31% 16.46% 45.13% 54.87% 100%
Jul-22 38.20% 7.30% 29.91% 8.24% 16.35% 45.50% 54.50% 100%
Oct-22 38.60% 7.28% 29.71% 8.17% 16.24% 45.88% 54.12% 100%
Jan-23 39.00% 7.25% 29.52% 8.10% 16.13% 46.25% 53.75% 100%
Apr-23 39.40% 7.23% 29.33% 8.03% 16.01% 46.63% 53.37% 100%
Jul-23 39.80% 7.20% 29.14% 7.96% 15.90% 47.00% 53.00% 100%
Oct-23 40.20% 7.18% 28.94% 7.89% 15.79% 47.38% 52.62% 100%
Jan-24 40.60% 7.15% 28.75% 7.82% 15.68% 47.75% 52.25% 100%
Apr-24 41.00% 7.13% 28.56% 7.75% 15.56% 48.13% 51.87% 100%
Jul-24 41.40% 7.10% 28.37% 7.68% 15.45% 48.50% 51.50% 100%
Oct-24 41.80% 7.08% 28.17% 7.61% 15.34% 48.88% 51.12% 100%
Jan-25 42.20% 7.05% 27.98% 7.54% 15.23% 49.25% 50.75% 100%
Apr-25 42.60% 7.03% 27.79% 7.47% 15.11% 49.63% 50.37% 100%
Jul-25 43.00% 7.00% 27.60% 7.40% 15.00% 50.00% 50.00% 100%
Oct-25 44.55% 6.95% 26.78% 7.17% 14.55% 51.50% 48.50% 100%
Jan-26 46.10% 6.90% 25.96% 6.94% 14.10% 53.00% 47.00% 100%
Apr-26 47.65% 6.85% 25.14% 6.71% 13.65% 54.50% 45.50% 100%
Jul-26 49.20% 6.80% 24.32% 6.48% 13.20% 56.00% 44.00% 100%
Oct-26 50.75% 6.75% 23.50% 6.25% 12.75% 57.50% 42.50% 100%
Jan-27 52.30% 6.70% 22.68% 6.02% 12.30% 59.00% 41.00% 100%
Apr-27 53.85% 6.65% 21.86% 5.79% 11.85% 60.50% 39.50% 100%
Jul-27 55.40% 6.60% 21.04% 5.56% 11.40% 62.00% 38.00% 100%
Oct-27 56.95% 6.55% 20.22% 5.33% 10.95% 63.50% 36.50% 100%
Jan-28 58.50% 6.50% 19.40% 5.10% 10.50% 65.00% 35.00% 100%
Apr-28 60.05% 6.45% 18.58% 4.87% 10.05% 66.50% 33.50% 100%
Jul-28 61.60% 6.40% 17.76% 4.64% 9.60% 68.00% 32.00% 100%
Oct-28 63.15% 6.35% 16.94% 4.41% 9.15% 69.50% 30.50% 100%
Jan-29 64.70% 6.30% 16.12% 4.18% 8.70% 71.00% 29.00% 100%
Apr-29 66.25% 6.25% 15.30% 3.95% 8.25% 72.50% 27.50% 100%
Jul-29 67.80% 6.20% 14.48% 3.72% 7.80% 74.00% 26.00% 100%
Oct-29 69.35% 6.15% 13.66% 3.49% 7.35% 75.50% 24.50% 100%
Jan-30 70.90% 6.10% 12.84% 3.26% 6.90% 77.00% 23.00% 100%
Apr-30 72.45% 6.05% 12.02% 3.03% 6.45% 78.50% 21.50% 100%
Jul-30 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
Oct-30 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
Jan-31 74.00% 6.00% 11.20% 2.80% 6.00% 80.00% 20.00% 100%
new L2020
Qtr G F C S I "Bonds" Stocks Total
Jan-17 52.94% 6.06% 22.68% 6.02% 12.30% 59.00% 41.00% 100%
Apr-17 54.30% 6.20% 21.86% 5.79% 11.85% 60.50% 39.50% 100%
Jul-17 55.68% 6.32% 21.04% 5.56% 11.40% 62.00% 38.00% 100%
Oct-17 57.08% 6.42% 20.22% 5.33% 10.95% 63.50% 36.50% 100%
Jan-18 58.50% 6.50% 19.40% 5.10% 10.50% 65.00% 35.00% 100%
Apr-18 60.05% 6.45% 18.58% 4.87% 10.05% 66.50% 33.50% 100%
Jul-18 61.60% 6.40% 17.76% 4.64% 9.60% 68.00% 32.00% 100%
Oct-18 63.15% 6.35% 16.94% 4.41% 9.15% 69.50% 30.50% 100%
Jan-19 64.44% 6.27% 15.12% 3.92% 10.25% 70.71% 29.29% 100%
Apr-19 65.73% 6.20% 14.50% 3.74% 9.83% 71.93% 28.07% 100%
Jul-19 67.01% 6.13% 13.89% 3.57% 9.40% 73.14% 26.86% 100%
Oct-19 68.30% 6.06% 13.27% 3.39% 8.98% 74.36% 25.64% 100%
Jan-20 69.58% 5.99% 12.66% 3.22% 8.55% 75.57% 24.43% 100%
Apr-20 70.87% 5.92% 12.04% 3.04% 8.13% 76.79% 23.21% 100%
Jul-20 72.15% 5.85% 11.44% 2.86% 7.70% 78.00% 22.00% 100%
Oct-20 71.92% 5.83% 11.57% 2.89% 7.79% 77.75% 22.25% 100%
Jan-21 71.69% 5.81% 11.69% 2.93% 7.88% 77.50% 22.50% 100%
Apr-21 71.46% 5.79% 11.83% 2.96% 7.96% 77.25% 22.75% 100%
Jul-21 71.23% 5.78% 11.95% 2.99% 8.05% 77.01% 22.99% 100%
Oct-21 70.99% 5.76% 12.09% 3.02% 8.14% 76.75% 23.25% 100%
Jan-22 70.76% 5.74% 12.21% 3.06% 8.23% 76.50% 23.50% 100%
Apr-22 70.53% 5.72% 12.35% 3.09% 8.31% 76.25% 23.75% 100%
Jul-22 70.30% 5.70% 12.48% 3.12% 8.40% 76.00% 24.00% 100%
Oct-22 70.07% 5.68% 12.61% 3.15% 8.49% 75.75% 24.25% 100%
Jan-23 69.84% 5.66% 12.73% 3.19% 8.58% 75.50% 24.50% 100%
Apr-23 69.61% 5.64% 12.87% 3.22% 8.66% 75.25% 24.75% 100%
Jul-23 69.38% 5.63% 12.99% 3.25% 8.75% 75.01% 24.99% 100%
Oct-23 69.14% 5.61% 13.13% 3.28% 8.84% 74.75% 25.25% 100%
Jan-24 68.91% 5.59% 13.25% 3.32% 8.93% 74.50% 25.50% 100%
Apr-24 68.68% 5.57% 13.39% 3.35% 9.01% 74.25% 25.75% 100%
Jul-24 68.45% 5.55% 13.52% 3.38% 9.10% 74.00% 26.00% 100%
Oct-24 68.22% 5.53% 13.65% 3.41% 9.19% 73.75% 26.25% 100%
Jan-25 67.99% 5.51% 13.77% 3.45% 9.28% 73.50% 26.50% 100%
Apr-25 67.76% 5.49% 13.91% 3.48% 9.36% 73.25% 26.75% 100%
Jul-25 67.53% 5.48% 14.03% 3.51% 9.45% 73.01% 26.99% 100%
Oct-25 67.29% 5.46% 14.17% 3.54% 9.54% 72.75% 27.25% 100%
Jan-26 67.06% 5.44% 14.29% 3.58% 9.63% 72.50% 27.50% 100%
Apr-26 66.83% 5.42% 14.43% 3.61% 9.71% 72.25% 27.75% 100%
Jul-26 66.60% 5.40% 14.56% 3.64% 9.80% 72.00% 28.00% 100%
Oct-26 66.37% 5.38% 14.69% 3.67% 9.89% 71.75% 28.25% 100%
Jan-27 66.14% 5.36% 14.81% 3.71% 9.98% 71.50% 28.50% 100%
Apr-27 65.91% 5.34% 14.95% 3.74% 10.06% 71.25% 28.75% 100%
Jul-27 65.68% 5.33% 15.07% 3.77% 10.15% 71.01% 28.99% 100%
Oct-27 65.44% 5.31% 15.21% 3.80% 10.24% 70.75% 29.25% 100%
Jan-28 65.21% 5.29% 15.33% 3.84% 10.33% 70.50% 29.50% 100%
Apr-28 64.98% 5.27% 15.47% 3.87% 10.41% 70.25% 29.75% 100%
Jul-28 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100%
Oct-28 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100%
Jan-29 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100%
new L2030
Qtr G F C S I "Bonds" Stocks Total
Jan-17 31.21% 6.04% 34.14% 9.78% 18.83% 37.25% 62.75% 100.00%
Apr-17 31.44% 6.19% 33.95% 9.71% 18.71% 37.63% 62.37% 100.00%
Jul-17 31.67% 6.33% 33.76% 9.64% 18.60% 38.00% 62.00% 100.00%
Oct-17 31.91% 6.47% 33.56% 9.57% 18.49% 38.38% 61.62% 100.00%
Jan-18 32.16% 6.59% 33.37% 9.50% 18.38% 38.75% 61.25% 100.00%
Apr-18 32.42% 6.71% 33.18% 9.43% 18.26% 39.13% 60.87% 100.00%
Jul-18 32.69% 6.81% 32.99% 9.36% 18.15% 39.50% 60.50% 100.00%
Oct-18 32.96% 6.92% 32.79% 9.29% 18.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-19 32.94% 6.94% 30.46% 8.62% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-19 32.92% 6.96% 30.48% 8.60% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-19 32.92% 6.96% 30.49% 8.59% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-19 32.90% 6.98% 30.50% 8.58% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-20 32.92% 6.96% 30.51% 8.57% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-20 32.92% 6.96% 30.52% 8.56% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-20 32.95% 6.93% 30.54% 8.54% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-20 32.97% 6.91% 30.55% 8.53% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-21 33.01% 6.87% 30.56% 8.52% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-21 33.09% 6.79% 30.57% 8.51% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-21 33.17% 6.71% 30.59% 8.49% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-21 33.25% 6.63% 30.60% 8.48% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-22 33.33% 6.55% 30.61% 8.47% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-22 33.40% 6.48% 30.63% 8.45% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-22 33.48% 6.40% 30.64% 8.44% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-22 33.55% 6.33% 30.65% 8.43% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-23 33.63% 6.25% 30.67% 8.41% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-23 33.70% 6.18% 30.68% 8.40% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-23 33.77% 6.11% 30.70% 8.38% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-23 33.84% 6.04% 30.71% 8.37% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-24 33.91% 5.97% 30.72% 8.36% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-24 33.97% 5.91% 30.74% 8.34% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-24 34.04% 5.84% 30.75% 8.33% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Oct-24 34.10% 5.78% 30.77% 8.31% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jan-25 34.17% 5.71% 30.78% 8.30% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Apr-25 34.23% 5.65% 30.80% 8.28% 21.04% 39.88% 60.12% 100.00%
Jul-25 34.40% 5.60% 30.75% 8.25% 21.00% 40.00% 60.00% 100.00%
Oct-25 35.90% 5.60% 29.99% 8.03% 20.48% 41.50% 58.50% 100.00%
Jan-26 37.40% 5.60% 29.23% 7.82% 19.95% 43.00% 57.00% 100.00%
Apr-26 38.91% 5.59% 28.47% 7.60% 19.43% 44.50% 55.50% 100.00%
Jul-26 40.41% 5.59% 27.72% 7.38% 18.90% 46.00% 54.00% 100.00%
Oct-26 41.92% 5.58% 26.95% 7.17% 18.38% 47.50% 52.50% 100.00%
Jan-27 43.44% 5.56% 26.20% 6.95% 17.85% 49.00% 51.00% 100.00%
Apr-27 44.95% 5.55% 25.43% 6.74% 17.33% 50.50% 49.50% 100.00%
Jul-27 46.46% 5.54% 24.68% 6.52% 16.80% 52.00% 48.00% 100.00%
Oct-27 47.98% 5.52% 23.91% 6.31% 16.28% 53.50% 46.50% 100.00%
Jan-28 49.50% 5.50% 23.16% 6.09% 15.75% 55.00% 45.00% 100.00%
Apr-28 51.02% 5.48% 22.40% 5.87% 15.23% 56.50% 43.50% 100.00%
Jul-28 52.54% 5.46% 21.64% 5.66% 14.70% 58.00% 42.00% 100.00%
Oct-28 54.06% 5.44% 20.88% 5.44% 14.18% 59.50% 40.50% 100.00%
Jan-29 55.59% 5.41% 20.13% 5.22% 13.65% 61.00% 39.00% 100.00%
Apr-29 57.11% 5.39% 19.37% 5.00% 13.13% 62.50% 37.50% 100.00%
Jul-29 58.64% 5.36% 18.62% 4.78% 12.60% 64.00% 36.00% 100.00%
Oct-29 60.16% 5.34% 17.86% 4.56% 12.08% 65.50% 34.50% 100.00%
Jan-30 61.69% 5.31% 17.11% 4.34% 11.55% 67.00% 33.00% 100.00%
Apr-30 63.22% 5.28% 16.35% 4.12% 11.03% 68.50% 31.50% 100.00%
Jul-30 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100.00%
Oct-30 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100.00%
Jan-31 64.75% 5.25% 15.60% 3.90% 10.50% 70.00% 30.00% 100.00%