ftobin wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:08 pm
How did you "rationally" set this limit order price?
Since we're discussing ETFs, presumably at NAV or at some value based on the pre-closure price, say slightly above the lowest price that the shares reached yesterday. Although you argued that NAV is actually whatever the marketable price is previously,
I consider that buying something for less than the value of its contents is a good deal, especially when I have twenty or thirty years for it to appreciate before I have to sell that something back off.
ftobin wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:08 pmAs a retail trader, your reference points should be the prevailing market values of the continuous market. But the market gaps overnight. Either your your limit order price will be hyper-marketable, and you'll have the problem of possibly executing at poor prices in the open,
And as I've been commenting throughout this discussion, it's not clear to me how poor a "poor price" is likely to be and what impact getting a "poor price" would actually have for a buy-and-hold investor. Are we talking about paying, say, a penny more per share on a fifty-dollar a share ETF, which is unlikely to make any significant difference in the long run, or another fifty dollars a share, which is obviously going to be a problem?
I agree that this would be an obvious and uncorrectable problem if you were
selling, but presumably a Boglehead isn't doing that very often.
I certainly don't do that very often, so I'm more interested in the impact on buying. Especially since, as I said, I live in Honolulu so it would be very convenient for me to be able to place orders outside of market hours (that is, during most hours when I'm likely to be awake) and know that I would be mostly fine in the end.
ftobin wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:08 pmor it'll likely be far outside the opening spread, and not achieving your retail goal of being executed.
So? I'm not in any particular rush here. If it's not executed I can just try again. Again, this is looking at it through a specifically Boglehead lens where I'm buying and holding, and holding one day more or less is going to make practically no difference, so having an order not execute is only a mild annoyance at worst. if the order executes it executes and if it doesn't it doesn't.
Again, this is obviously more of a problem if you're
selling shares to meet some need, in which case you probably
do want to have the order execute in good time. In that case, sure, after-hours orders are a problem.
Workable Goblin wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:35 am
The assumption that is wrong is that you don't have a mechanism to define a reasonable limit order price outside of market hours that will provide the the benefit of both
But I see several methods of defining reasonable prices in most circumstances looking at previous executions and/or the actual value of the underlying assets the ETF holds. This might not hold in the middle of a stock market crash, granted, but even then the subsequent recovery will most likely make up for any issues of this sort in the long run.
Essentially, I'm thinking of
the worst market timer ever. The one who only invested at the peaks but, since he or she never sold, ended up making plenty of money anyway. I cannot see how having sub-par order execution is going to be
worse than that.