401k down 8% this month

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JD2775
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401k down 8% this month

Post by JD2775 »

Not panicking and i realize it's been a "tough" month, just making sure others are seeing similar drops? :)

80/20 stocks/bonds
Mix Lg/med/sm + Int'l index funds (4 funds)
Total bond index fund
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Toons
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Re: 401k down 8% since 9/30

Post by Toons »

30 Days ???
Try to keep longer view,,,
30 years.
You will sleep a whole lot better

:happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Topic Author
JD2775
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Re: 401k down 8% since 9/30

Post by JD2775 »

Toons wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:43 pm 1 month???
Try to keep longer view,,,
30 years.
You will sleep a whole lot better

:happy
Yes, yes...I know....that's why I come here, perspective :) Thanks Toons
Last edited by JD2775 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Think how much it is up since 2010.
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AerialWombat
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by AerialWombat »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:46 pm Think how much it is up since 2010.
Some of us were still recovering from bankruptcy in 2010, and weren’t able to start buying securities until 2018. For us, the recent drop stings a little, since it’s newly invested money.

But, stay the course...
bling
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by bling »

i'm down 6.45% with a 75/25 AA. even though i'm down, i'm happy that my REIT allocation finally started zagging when the market is zigging.
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dm200
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dm200 »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:24 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:46 pm Think how much it is up since 2010.
But, stay the course...
yes ..
WhiteMaxima
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by WhiteMaxima »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:24 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:46 pm Think how much it is up since 2010.
Some of us were still recovering from bankruptcy in 2010, and weren’t able to start buying securities until 2018. For us, the recent drop stings a little, since it’s newly invested money.

But, stay the course...
Stay the course. Remember, market has risk. It can drop 40-50% in a couple of months. Always keep some cash on hand, keep a balanced AA and keep investing.
dknightd
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dknightd »

Stocks go up and down. Annoying. The month is not over, they could go back up, or down some more . . .
This is why people say not to put money in stocks you might need in the near future
If you value a bird in the hand, pay off the loan. If you are willing to risk getting two birds (or none) from the market, invest the funds.
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dm200
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dm200 »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:30 pm
AerialWombat wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:24 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:46 pm Think how much it is up since 2010.
Some of us were still recovering from bankruptcy in 2010, and weren’t able to start buying securities until 2018. For us, the recent drop stings a little, since it’s newly invested money.
But, stay the course...
Stay the course. Remember, market has risk. It can drop 40-50% in a couple of months. Always keep some cash on hand, keep a balanced AA and keep investing.
yes..
stupidkid
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by stupidkid »

5% for me and that's with a 50/50 allocation in my 401k (more stocks in taxable, more of a drop) but I'm only down 1.5% for the year and will keep buying every two weeks for the rest of this year and many more, so it's just a data point...
Elena
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Elena »

This is when you stop looking at balances and go out for long walks, or enjoy whatever you enjoy doing. The real behavioral aspect begins here. Wake up the same, eat the same, laugh the same, keep investing the same, but do not look at the balance (unless you are doing a yearly point-check, which many people do at the end of the year, or on their birthday, or some other once a year date). You can also try spending a bit less (to invest more) or making a bit more (to invest more), or nothing at all.
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mmmodem
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by mmmodem »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:41 pm Not panicking and i realize it's been a "tough" month, just making sure others are seeing similar drops? :)
I honestly don't know what my drops are. It makes it a lot easier to not panic and not realize it's even been a "tough" month if I haven't checked this month or last month. Stay the course.

It's October and the only thing tough is walking around neighborhoods in the dark watching out for my three toddlers so they don't get run over by a car. This is a ridiculous holiday for a parent.
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villars
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by villars »

At the peak I was looking towards a big round number milestone by the end of the year. I even sent a bit extra to Vanguard "to get closer" . Alas it is not meant to be this year. Maybe next.
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dm200
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dm200 »

The time to assess your risk tolerance is before such a drop happens - not after .. :oops:
visualguy
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by visualguy »

dm200 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:04 pm The time to assess your risk tolerance is before such a drop happens - not after .. :oops:
Right, but this may be just part of the drop... The gains of only one year evaporated. We could easily see the gains of two years evaporate, and the market would still be highly-valued.
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GerryL
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by GerryL »

JD2775,
Some people will tell you to stop looking, and that might be a good idea if market changes make you want to react. But if you want to keep looking here is what I used to do (and continue to do but not as frequently):
Every Friday after work I would launch Quicken to update my checking acct, etc. At this time I would note the value of my investment portfolio and run the auto update to grab new prices for all the funds/stocks. Then I would add/substract the total to see the change from one week to the next.

When the market was really hopping, I might remark to myself, "Wow. This week my investments went up more than I used to make in a year when I was 25 years old!" Other times I might say, "Dang. Down this week." (During 2008-2009 I did the math less frequently.)

Then I got on with life. Didn't bother figuring the % up or down. I just compared the positive figure to some anchor or shrugged off the negative figure. Over time the trend is up, even if there are dips in the road along the way. See the short-term movement as a curiousity but don't let it stress you.
Rwsawbones
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Rwsawbones »

We get paid well for putting up with volatility. The market as a whole has almost quadrupled since February 2009. For a person my age77 drops in the market do not present the opportunity that are enjoyed by younger folks though 2007-9 did hand me opportunity. The younger one is the greater the opportunity. Dollar cost averaging though clearly inferior to lump sum investments when one has the cash does have psychological benefits.
dknightd
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dknightd »

dm200 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:04 pm The time to assess your risk tolerance is before such a drop happens - not after .. :oops:
Easier said than done. I was way too conservative in my early years of accumulating. I wish I knew then what I know now.

My rule is do not sell stocks when they are going down. Wait, or buy, and most likely they will go back up.

I've been saving and investing for about 30 years. Now I have about 30 years to hopefully live off that.
I'm pretty sure that if I'm around then, I'll wish I knew then what I know now (or the other way around).

OP Investing for retirement means you have to look at the long term. Then when you retire you also have to look at the long term.
An 8% drop is small. Though unpleasant. Unfortunately for long term gains you have to be able to accept more than a short term 8% drop.

Do one, or more, of the risk tolerance questionnaires. Try to figure what you would be OK with.
If you value a bird in the hand, pay off the loan. If you are willing to risk getting two birds (or none) from the market, invest the funds.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by WhiteMaxima »

My philosophy is you can never sell at the peak and buy at the bottom. Either you do passive investing and DCA through the course or sell when the market becomes over heat. When the market become exuberant, everyone try to get in, stock becomes over priced, this is the time you need to sell. Or when the market becomes pessimistic and everyone hate the stock, you need to buy even though it is not the bottom. Human emotion is built into the market and make make skew the value of the company. Another key index you can follow is to look at W Buffet cash position. W buffet up till last quarter 10 billion USD in cash or short term bond. If he think market is fairly valued, he should have bought it. But he sees bubble in the market and choose to sit on pile of cash. Tells you something.
rudeboy
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by rudeboy »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:24 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:46 pm Think how much it is up since 2010.
Some of us were still recovering from bankruptcy in 2010, and weren’t able to start buying securities until 2018. For us, the recent drop stings a little, since it’s newly invested money.

But, stay the course...
Yes, stay the course. This is a great opportunity to make up for lost time -- today, you're able to invest at last year's prices.
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Toons
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Re: 401k down 8% since 9/30

Post by Toons »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:45 pm
Toons wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:43 pm 1 month???
Try to keep longer view,,,
30 years.
You will sleep a whole lot better

:happy
Yes, yes...I know....that's why I come here, perspective :) Thanks Toons
Been through Bulls and Bears since 1981(Dow 887)
Never been out of the market
Never stopped investing....
Live like no one else ,,,,
So you can live like no one else(D. Ramsey quote)
When you retire :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
wolf359
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by wolf359 »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:41 pm Not panicking and i realize it's been a "tough" month, just making sure others are seeing similar drops? :)

80/20 stocks/bonds
Mix Lg/med/sm + Int'l index funds (4 funds)
Total bond index fund
I used to trade individual stocks. When you do that, then it made sense to compare to what other people were doing.

If you're following the Boglehead method and staying with broadly based low-cost index funds, then you're going to do what the market is doing. If the market is up, you're up. If the market is down, you're down.

The really nice difference between the two is that I no longer have to worry about my investments going to zero. If VTSAX goes to zero, then we have other problems.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

realize that losses happen more often than you might think:

Image

source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/138340 ... cale=en_US

Do you see how "Despite average intrayear drops of 13.8%, annual returns were positive 29 of 38 years"?

See how you have to "stay the course" to get the positive returns? That's what buy and hold/stay the course means. Patience wins the day. But you've got to stay in the market to get the generous return of the market.
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
J295
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by J295 »

No idea. Whatever it is won't be actionable for us. Will update sometime. More fun to look when market going up.
drzzzzz
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by drzzzzz »

Everyone here has basically said stay the course, but I would add the caveat that maybe your risk tolerance is different and you should really reassess your comfort with risk - leading to a possible decrease in your stock allocation while increasing your bond/cash portion so that you are more insulated from market drops (as well as market gains).
Bacchus01
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Bacchus01 »

What happened this month?
Outafter20
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Outafter20 »

My 457 is down about 8% as well. The last few months I have been directing 100% of my biweekly contributions into the stable value fund (my "bond" allocation) to keep my target asset allocation at 70/30. Today I switched my contributions over to 100% equities for the same reason.
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stemikger
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by stemikger »

I know a lot of people don't like Jack's advice, but it works for me.

Don't Peek!

And another classic: Stop looking at the Silly Stock Market. It's a distraction to the business of Investing.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
smudge
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by smudge »

I call this loss tolerance.
Glockenspiel
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Glockenspiel »

From the recent highs, I'm down 8.2%. I'm only 33 years old so I'm sticking with my asset allocation (90% stocks/10% bonds) because I'm not planning to retire for at least 20-25 years. My bond allocation has recently re-balanced itself back to what I have in my IPS (Investment Policy Statement).
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Ice-9
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Ice-9 »

It's for times like when a portfolio goes down 8% in a month when I take a look at screenshots I've saved from my past portfolio, like this one from September 29, 2008:

Image
UpperNwGuy
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by UpperNwGuy »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:41 pm Not panicking and i realize it's been a "tough" month, just making sure others are seeing similar drops? :)

80/20 stocks/bonds
Mix Lg/med/sm + Int'l index funds (4 funds)
Total bond index fund
Yes, I am seeing similar drops, but that doesn't surprise me. I bought the market, so my portfolio rises and falls with the market.
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racy
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by racy »

I've tracked my monthly balances for 28.8 years. They went up 250 months and down 95 months (and has increased 2900%).
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tludwig23
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by tludwig23 »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:30 pmStay the course. Remember, market has risk. It can drop 40-50% in a couple of months. Always keep some cash on hand, keep a balanced AA and keep investing.
If the money is in a retirement account with a long horizon, why keep cash on hand?
That's what I do: I drink, and I know things. --Tyrion Lannister
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corn18
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by corn18 »

My 401k contributions YTD are still bigger than any drops in my 401k, so it all looks good to me. I put in $60k this year and it's where I keep most of my bond allocation, so maybe it's doing ok. Taxable might be taking a hit but I pulled a boatload out for a house downpayment at the beginning of Oct so I'm feeling pretty good about that. The accidental market timer. But I am adding about $250k / year to taxable, so would still take a serious bear to even notice a drop in balances.
Don't do something, just stand there!
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22twain
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by 22twain »

I'm down only about 5% this month, but I'm retired (at nearly 65), with about 45% in stocks.
Help save endangered words! When you write "princiPLE", make sure you don't really mean "princiPAL"!
togb
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by togb »

Down 4.5%, portfolio is about 70/30. Just staying put, but if we go down another 10-15% I'll might add to some positions. And I've got one position I'm watching - might take a loss for tax purposes or offset another sale with gains.
vwgrrc
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by vwgrrc »

Honestly, I don't even remember the login of my 401k at Fidelity, neither my wife's at T.Row. I tried but I couldn't remember the password and I don't want to bother to reset it. Life is good :sharebeer
MindTheGAAP
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by MindTheGAAP »

Down 9.4%. EM and rest of INT’L have taken a really good whacking in the last 3 months so not a surprise for me. I also overweight SC and MC and SC especially hasn’t had a good run since the summer.

C’est la vie.
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute" - William Feather
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TierArtz
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by TierArtz »

I'm down about 7% for the month and still smiling about still being up over 10% per year (6X overall) since 01 March 2009! If we progress to a full-blown bear market, the silver lining for me is that I've resolved to retire after investing as much as I can through the next one.
Zedon
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by Zedon »

I'm down not sure how much, what I do know is that I bought more today.
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oldzey
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Re: 401k down 8% since 9/30

Post by oldzey »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:45 pm
Toons wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:43 pm 1 month???
Try to keep longer view,,,
30 years.
You will sleep a whole lot better

:happy
Yes, yes...I know....that's why I come here, perspective :) Thanks Toons
If you squint really hard at this 30 year S&P 500 growth chart, you can just make out the recent drop on the upper right. 8-)

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
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mmmodem
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Re: 401k down 8% since 9/30

Post by mmmodem »

oldzey wrote: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:24 am
JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:45 pm
Toons wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:43 pm 1 month???
Try to keep longer view,,,
30 years.
You will sleep a whole lot better

:happy
Yes, yes...I know....that's why I come here, perspective :) Thanks Toons
If you squint really hard at this 30 year S&P 500 growth chart, you can just make out the recent drop on the upper right. 8-)

Image
Thanks for that perspective! Time to go buy more VTSAX.
dziuniek
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by dziuniek »

Down 2.4 %. 70/30 here.

Stable Value fund and Vanguard Explorer somewhat saving me this year.
TheOscarGuy
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by TheOscarGuy »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:41 pm Not panicking and i realize it's been a "tough" month, just making sure others are seeing similar drops? :)

80/20 stocks/bonds
Mix Lg/med/sm + Int'l index funds (4 funds)
Total bond index fund
Don't know. When stock market goes down I stop looking at my 401K. Good thing I am not starting my withdrawals anytime soon.
hulburt1
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by hulburt1 »

I always look at the last 5 year average. I'm up 13% so losing some now is not a big thing. You should have a plan for times like this year, I will not sell stock until I use up my 2 years cash and then I might look at SS. That's why I did not take SS at 62 or 65 and will take at 70. I'm happy at 95% stock If I had more cash I'd buy right now.
FootballFan5548
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by FootballFan5548 »

I chose this year to really front load my 401k and max it early. So I had $18.5K (plus 6% company match) full funded by August... I wish I had spread it out over the course of the full year like I ordinarily would have done in years past so I could still get some buys in the next two months at lower prices.

I'm 35, so have a long way to go and I'm sure this minor detail won't matter one bit at retirement time. Annoying none-the-less
jacksonm
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by jacksonm »

I'm retired and no longer contributing to a 401k but my wife is.

Actually, I was more worried about all the of the stock my wife was buying at the peak of the market for such a long time.

If you are still an active buyer, drops in the price are a good thing for your 401k. It shouldn't be worrisome until you become like me (Actually it's still not that worrisome. I have to begin RMD's next year so the required amount might not be as high as I thought earlier in the year - always look on the bright side).
WhiteMaxima
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Re: 401k down 8% this month

Post by WhiteMaxima »

jacksonm wrote: Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:17 am I'm retired and no longer contributing to a 401k but my wife is.

Actually, I was more worried about all the of the stock my wife was buying at the peak of the market for such a long time.

If you are still an active buyer, drops in the price are a good thing for your 401k. It shouldn't be worrisome until you become like me (Actually it's still not that worrisome. I have to begin RMD's next year so the required amount might not be as high as I thought earlier in the year - always look on the bright side).
What's your AA. You can rebalane if you have some % in Bond or other fix income AA. Market drop is also good for retiree.
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