flat for the year

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BanquetBeer
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flat for the year

Post by BanquetBeer » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:53 pm

I took my monthly account balance on January 12, 2018 (large variations around that time) but my accounts (that I didnt contribute to) are basically flat YTD. Bit of a surprise to me since everyone has been talking about this great economy. I guess at least I can take credit for a ~9% increase in assets due to some non-stock investments but mostly contributions (annual bonuses always adds a nice bump). I assume since I am mostly S&P 500 that people are experiencing similar results?

assyadh
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Re: flat for the year

Post by assyadh » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:56 pm

I'm down due to international. Doesn't matter as much as my contributions/matches are UP

jebmke
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Re: flat for the year

Post by jebmke » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:57 pm

As of yesterday, S&P 500 and Total Stock Market Funds are up 6+% YTD if I read the numbers on VG site correctly. That would include dividends. Bonds are down so if you have bond holdings that could drag down your overall performance.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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JoMoney
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Re: flat for the year

Post by JoMoney » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:14 pm

This is what Fidelity is telling me on my year-to-date investments, which is in S&P 500
Image
I've been making some contributions throughout the year, but it's still in line with what the market would have done with no new contributions.
Morningstar chart

Your Jan. 12th start date would have started a little later in the year with a higher starting point, but should still be positive on a total return (including dividends) basis (about +3% according to the Morningstar chart).
Going back to Oct-2017 for a full year, S&P 500 is up like 12% total return.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

Dottie57
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Re: flat for the year

Post by Dottie57 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:28 pm

What is the ticker for your S&P fund?

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TierArtz
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Re: flat for the year

Post by TierArtz » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:40 pm

Quicken tells me I'm up 0.63% for the year (roughly 40% TSM, 27% TISM, and 33% bonds), which suits my definition of "flat". Thus, you have company.

tenkuky
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Re: flat for the year

Post by tenkuky » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:50 pm

TierArtz wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:40 pm
Quicken tells me I'm up 0.63% for the year (roughly 40% TSM, 27% TISM, and 33% bonds), which suits my definition of "flat". Thus, you have company.
And I'm -0.41% and fine with it. 50 TSM 15 Int 5 EM 30 BD

BanquetBeer
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Re: flat for the year

Post by BanquetBeer » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:25 pm

(approx)
44% S&P 500
44% Total Market
11% International
2% Wellesley

Gain including dividends = 4.38% YTD
Using my Jan 12 recording date = 1.001%


My observation is with the midterms coming up and everyone on the radio telling me how great the economy is doing; I am not seeing that in my investments or my salary - can't speak about unemployment. Just a bit of a shock when I sat down to look at the data as opposed to the slogan.

Ron Scott
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Re: flat for the year

Post by Ron Scott » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:31 pm

The economy is indeed great, which doesn't mean individual returns are great for the year. PEs are lofty...
Retirement is a game best played by those prepared for more volatility in the future than has been seen in the past. The solution is not to predict investment losses but to prepare for them.

Ron Scott
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Re: flat for the year

Post by Ron Scott » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:31 pm

double
Retirement is a game best played by those prepared for more volatility in the future than has been seen in the past. The solution is not to predict investment losses but to prepare for them.

AussieDad
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Re: flat for the year

Post by AussieDad » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:07 am

assyadh wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:56 pm
I'm down due to international.
X2

bklyn96
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Re: flat for the year

Post by bklyn96 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:46 am

As of yesterday's close my retirement accounts were +.98% for the year.

Asset allocation is 21% Total Stock Market, 35% Total Bond Market and 44% Wellington.

lazydavid
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Re: flat for the year

Post by lazydavid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:06 am

Excluding my taxable account--which Personal Capital says is up 78% on the year, due to weirdness associated with a large withdrawal that I'm too lazy to compute manually--my returns are +0.3% YTD. Balance is up 5.3% due to contributions.

omeganuts0213
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Re: flat for the year

Post by omeganuts0213 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:11 am

403
6.65% - 100% Inst index

457
4.49% - 100% Large index

ryman554
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Re: flat for the year

Post by ryman554 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:32 am

I'm +5% when considering contributions.
I'm -2% when subtracting out the new contributions.

So, I'm down to flat. Treading water, so to speak, but still adding ballast, which is nice considering a (low) 7 figure portfolio. Contributions matter, even at this level.

Not a good year to be 40% international, but even with the "disaster" that is ex-us, the overall impact isn't that bad.

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llama
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Re: flat for the year

Post by llama » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:40 am

-0.57% YTD
36/24/20/20 (US stock/Intl stock/TIPS/Nominals)

BanquetBeer
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Re: flat for the year

Post by BanquetBeer » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:54 am

Yes, I was mostly looking at this excluding contributions.

I did some asking around to colleagues and my understanding is the oil sector isn’t booming. Stories of projects being pushed out due to steel tariffs or accepting lower ROI. The tax cut ‘hurt’ my company per the CEO (not currently paying taxes: large expenses made in previous years based on tax savings now maybe those projects aren’t profitable in the way they were set up). Other major companies still reducing staffing overall.

Guess bit of a shock when I took a look since news is focused on scandal and the messages you hear have been we are doing great. I’m sure some industries came out well but it isn’t universal if oil isn’t doing great (from people in mid level planning positions).

I’ve started investing in international this year to buy low (long term target in my plan but haven’t been in a rush) but now I’m wondering if I should start picking up bonds (interest rates slow or reverse if we have financial trouble) as I have held off until now because I don’t want to loose capital with rate hikes. Right now I have an equivalent amount I want for bonds in physical real estate so at least somewhat diversified but will have to decide in 2019-2020 where to put that money.

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Sandtrap
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Re: flat for the year

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:58 am

A properly allocated "Bogle Portfolio" is designed to be a "life raft" on the waves of economic change.
Whether peaks or valleys, it continues to float as designed, stormy or calm.
j

staythecourse
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Re: flat for the year

Post by staythecourse » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:02 am

Lucky for you as I am sure negative. With REIT, international small cap, and EM my ship has many holes this year. Reminds me of Mr. Gibson's line from "Asset Allocation"... (paraphasing) "A truly diversified investor will always be unhappy he will hold too many of the losers and not enough of the winners". Thems the brakes. I don't care though as I only care about the money when I start withdrawing from it (10-20 years away).

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

kaeltor
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Re: flat for the year

Post by kaeltor » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:34 am

Is it safe to say we are officially in correction territory? :?: :confused

bloom2708
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Re: flat for the year

Post by bloom2708 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:59 am

kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:34 am
Is it safe to say we are officially in correction territory? :?: :confused
A correction would -10%. Not even close to that YTD.

This has been an up and down year but far from a -10, -20+ down year. Then, the year isn't over.

I checked. At Vanguard we are at +1% with a 65/35 portfolio. Similar for my 401k. It happens.
Last edited by bloom2708 on Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"We are not here to please, but to provoke thoughtfulness." --Unknown Boglehead

WhiteMaxima
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Re: flat for the year

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:14 am

We should celebrate that we are still positive so far. The GDP is only growing 3% YOY since 2009. Can BH explain how the market return at north of 10%. I can't figure it out.

rick2427
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Location: Missouri

Re: flat for the year

Post by rick2427 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:40 pm

Russell 2000 index is in correction territory <10.40>% as of today

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unclescrooge
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Re: flat for the year

Post by unclescrooge » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:44 pm

Long term bonds were down 8% down I checked a few days ago.

A well diversified portfolio will be flat to negative this year.

A US-stock heavy portfolio will be positive.

And in a year or two the tables will be turned.

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JoMoney
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Re: flat for the year

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:46 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:14 am
We should celebrate that we are still positive so far. The GDP is only growing 3% YOY since 2009. Can BH explain how the market return at north of 10%. I can't figure it out.
U.S. stocks have had a long term real total return of about 6.6% going back over a hundred years. Real GDP has been around 3-3.5%.
In "Stocks For The Long Run" Jeremy Siegel suggests an explanation that even in an economy with zero growth, scarce resources like labor/wages and land/rents expect to have a return (even though they don't 'grow' at all), capital is also a scarce resource that demands some return even with zero growth. Because dividends and capital gains are reinvested in stocks to calculate the 'total return', the return on stocks grows faster/higher than GDP or even the growth of the stock market (i.e. total market cap) itself.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

Tamalak
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Re: flat for the year

Post by Tamalak » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:52 pm

Flat for the year? I'm jealous.

I sure do wish international would decide to stop being trash for a little while.. :|

aristotelian
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Re: flat for the year

Post by aristotelian » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:07 pm

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:59 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:34 am
Is it safe to say we are officially in correction territory? :?: :confused
A correction would -10%. Not even close to that YTD.

This has been an up and down year but far from a -10, -20+ down year. Then, the year isn't over.
Correction is 10% from peak. I believe we are close to that.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: flat for the year

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:36 pm

Tamalak wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:52 pm
I sure do wish international would decide to stop being trash for a little while.. :|
I'm just glad I can buy something that doesn't have a PE10 over 30.

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