2017 Social Security AWI / Bend Points released

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David Jay
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2017 Social Security AWI / Bend Points released

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:46 am

The 2017 AWI was released: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html

$50,321.89, which is a 3.45% increase from 2016. I was born in 1957 so the 2017 numbers are used to calculate my PIA (Primary Insurance Amount)

I calculate that Max PIA for someone born in 1957 is $3,074 $3,086 [missed the revised bend points - HT Faith]
Last edited by David Jay on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:54 am, edited 4 times in total.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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David Jay
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:51 am

My PIA, as of the end of 2017 is $2,743. I will add a couple of bucks with a one year substitution (2018 will replace 1985) this year so my final PIA will be $2,745 or $2,746.

[edited to reflect new bend points]
Last edited by David Jay on Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

Darth Xanadu
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Good to know, thank you for posting.

Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA?
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

DorothyB
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by DorothyB » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:47 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA?
I use the anypia program downloaded from the soc sec website. Within that program, I can choose from the three alternatives that are included as part of the trustee's report each year. Alternative II is their most likely scenario. Alternative III is the more conservative for the person receiving social security. You can also choose "no change going forward".

Darth Xanadu
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:51 pm

DorothyB wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:47 pm
Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA?
I use the anypia program downloaded from the soc sec website. Within that program, I can choose from the three alternatives that are included as part of the trustee's report each year. Alternative II is their most likely scenario. Alternative III is the more conservative for the person receiving social security. You can also choose "no change going forward".
I see, thanks for sharing, I was unaware of this tool. I briefly looked at the User Guide, it appears very thorough!
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

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David Jay
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:59 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:51 pm
DorothyB wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:47 pm
Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA?
I use the anypia program downloaded from the soc sec website. Within that program, I can choose from the three alternatives that are included as part of the trustee's report each year. Alternative II is their most likely scenario. Alternative III is the more conservative for the person receiving social security. You can also choose "no change going forward".
I see, thanks for sharing, I was unaware of this tool. I briefly looked at the User Guide, it appears very thorough!
I agree, anyPIA is very comprehensive if you are willing to do the work (load the data, set the parameters, etc.).
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

mptfan
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by mptfan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:05 pm

Thank you for sharing, I can update my spreadsheet now.

mptfan
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by mptfan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:13 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm
Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA?
You have to read the latest trustees report from the Social Security board of trustees to find out, in particular the long range economic assumptions. (I'll give you a hint, look at table 3.1)

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2018/index.html

Faith20879
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by Faith20879 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:25 pm

Thank you for the info. One less pseudo number on my spreadsheet, wonderful!

Any idea when the bend points will be updated?

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David Jay
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:21 pm

Faith20879 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:25 pm
Thank you for the info. One less pseudo number on my spreadsheet, wonderful!

Any idea when the bend points will be updated?
Bend points are directly proportional to the AWI, so they were also updated today: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/piaformula.html

First bend point for 2019 (derived from 2017 data): $926
Second bend point for 2019 (derived from 2017 data): $5,583
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

Faith20879
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Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Post by Faith20879 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:18 am

David Jay wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:21 pm
...
First bend point for 2019 (derived from 2017 data): $926
Second bend point for 2019 (derived from 2017 data): $5,583
Thank you, DJ.

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