When will you backup the truck on stocks

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Elysium
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When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Elysium » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. This is a plan to buy more than what you have allocated by backing up the truck because hamburgers went on sale. Your know the whole greedy when others are fearful thing.

To me it is 20% drop from current levels, and that inlcudes today's sell off. I would be very tempted at 10% drop to wade in.

What is your back up the truck point?

Please no what is your IPS tell you sort of thing, we already know that.

bayview
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by bayview » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 pm

I have an itty-bitty truck (funds available outside of our low-risk floor of needed funds), and I spent about 60% of it buying stocks today (international small caps, US total market, US mid-caps.)

AA had drifted after DH bailed and moved his tIRA to all CDs/Treasuries/MM. Time to get back to where we are supposed to be.

After this, the only real truck-backing-up option is new money, and that's already going into 100% stocks.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

badger42
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by badger42 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 pm

CAPE10 below 20

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 pm

When I have cash, I invest it.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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munemaker
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by munemaker » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 pm

Don't time the market. Stay the course.

jdilla1107
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by jdilla1107 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:41 pm

A 10% drop would seem to put us around levels seen in March of this year. Yawn.
Last edited by jdilla1107 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ge1
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by ge1 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:41 pm

Once the US market is down 20% I may get interested.

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Kenkat
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Kenkat » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 pm

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck.

If stocks drop around 20%, my rebalance triggers should start flashing.

MnD
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by MnD » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:46 pm

Only if and when rebalancing bands are exceeded and then I will purchase the exact amount of equity through sales of FI to restore AA to target and the midpoint of bands. New money goes in at AA as always. No tinkering, no hunches, no emotion. If rebalancing bands are exceeded, stocks very much will be "on sale", although they could always go lower.

DesertDiva
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by DesertDiva » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:48 pm

munemaker wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 pm
Don't time the market. Stay the course.
+1
♫ Stocks go up ♫ Stocks go down ♫ Stocks go up ♫ Stocks go down ♫

delamer
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by delamer » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:50 pm

How will you handle these cash reserves if there isn’t a 10% or more downturn in the next, say, 2 years?

What if the market goes up 15% more and then goes down 10%? You have fewer shares than if you bought today. And you will have missed out on any dividends in the meantime.

I don’t have any such reserves, and don’t really understand the reasoning.

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sergeant
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by sergeant » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:55 pm

30% drop would get my attention. I'm usually at 50/50 but drifted down to 35/65 over the past six months due to valuations and receiving a lawsuit settlement that I stuck in Prime MM. I would go back to 50/50 in a heartbeat if the market lost 40%. Today wasn't even interesting.
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mortfree
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by mortfree » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:02 pm

I bought VTI (Total US ETF) today.

10 shares at $143.

I had set that market limit order a few weeks ago in my taxable account. Avoided the recent dividend on purpose so timing worked out.

But now I need to come up with another $1400 for 2019 Roth. Oh well.

Wait to see what is in store. But VTI price is same as it was back in March when I bought using my bonus.

Not excited yet but know what I am down today alone. I can handle it.

letsgobobby
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:05 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. This is a plan to buy more than what you have allocated by backing up the truck because hamburgers went on sale. Your know the whole greedy when others are fearful thing.

To me it is 20% drop from current levels, and that inlcudes today's sell off. I would be very tempted at 10% drop to wade in.

What is your back up the truck point?

Please no what is your IPS tell you sort of thing, we already know that.
60%

lukestuckenhymer
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by lukestuckenhymer » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:12 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 pm
When I have cash, I invest it.
+1

If I had spare cash left over after maxing out the 403b/IRA, it would already be invested. Can't wait around for RBDs.

TheNightsToCome
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by TheNightsToCome » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:33 pm

badger42 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 pm
CAPE10 below 20
CAPE below 10 for me -- for "backing up the truck."

hdas
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by hdas » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:51 pm

Vix above 50. H
Stay the course and buy some more.

livesoft
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by livesoft » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:06 pm

Only an additional 5% into equities? Today was a big enough drop for that. But a 5% addition to equities is not backing up the truck either.
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blaugranamd
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by blaugranamd » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:13 pm

This is why these dry powder type situations are not very sound:
Most recent peak was in Mid/Late Sept at around $74 for VTSAX
10% drop puts you at about $66.7
If your cash has been waiting since Mar 2018 or earlier, you're likely losing money.
20% drop? Any cash waiting prior to May 2017 probably lost you money

:moneybag
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Elysium
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Elysium » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm

Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this.

If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money in fixed income. This isn't a plan waiting for a market crash, but rather out of having no need to take additional risk.

Now if the market declined a lot, like 20% or more, that would present an opportunity to allow using that fixed income built up earlier. If the market kept going up what would I do? nothing, because my goals are being met and I have no need to take more risk.
Last edited by Elysium on Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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baconavocado
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by baconavocado » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:42 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 pm
When I have cash, I invest it.
munemaker wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 pm
Don't time the market. Stay the course.
+1
+1

No one can time the market.

If you have cash that's waiting for a certain % downturn, you're losing money because you're out of the market.

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whodidntante
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by whodidntante » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:47 pm

I am fully invested in my desired asset allocation, so the truck has been backed up for a long while now. I'd probably increase leverage if stocks drop 50%+.

madbrain
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by madbrain » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:48 pm

baconavocado wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:42 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 pm
When I have cash, I invest it.
munemaker wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 pm
Don't time the market. Stay the course.
+1
+1

No one can time the market.

If you have cash that's waiting for a certain % downturn, you're losing money because you're out of the market.
I have money in a stable value fund as part of my fixed income AA. Will rebalance if market loses 20% for sure. Less than that, I don't know.
Definitely not at 3%.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:52 pm

I'm not buying. I'm not selling. I don't own a truck. I don't own dry powder. I'm doing nothing.

pascalwager
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by pascalwager » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:00 pm

If TWS gets back down to $27.55, I might reduce my bond allocation a bit.

AlphaLess
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by AlphaLess » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:02 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
What is your back up the truck point?
If stocks go down 90%, I will back up my truck.

I mean, literally, I will sell our car, and buy stocks.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

WanderingDoc
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by WanderingDoc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:05 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. This is a plan to buy more than what you have allocated by backing up the truck because hamburgers went on sale. Your know the whole greedy when others are fearful thing.

To me it is 20% drop from current levels, and that inlcudes today's sell off. I would be very tempted at 10% drop to wade in.

What is your back up the truck point?

Please no what is your IPS tell you sort of thing, we already know that.
I'll start worrying mildly when there is a 80% stock market decline. I don't hold more than 20% of my portfolio in paper assets. That is asking for trouble. Buy real assets that produce income! :D
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

GammaPoint
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by GammaPoint » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:08 pm

VTI around 100 would probably cause me to do something irregular, or maybe VXUS around 35. VWO at 32-34 or so would make me a little jittery to buy a lot more too.

Today's drop was nothing though. I can easily remember, say, VTI up at 125 and buying it then thinking it was a little frothy. Until VTI drops below that, definitely not going to do something abnormal (obviously this price threshold doesn't hold forever, but just in the near term).

I know people think that there are good reasons for the P/E ratios to go up over time (ease of investment, etc. etc.), but I think we live in a world with very real, tangible risks (low growth, environmental issues, geopolitical instability, etc), which mean that I personally am not comfortable paying higher prices for earnings. There are very real risks out there, and possibly not just the kind that you can ride out with a long-term view. Too many people have adapted what was a useful mantra in the past, that "risk" meant simply that one had to wait 10 years to get paid. And because too many people believe that, I think there is a chance that risk means something much more damaging to a portfolio then backtests would suggest.
Last edited by GammaPoint on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.

McGilicutty
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by McGilicutty » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:12 pm

I've got about 13% of my port in cash at the moment due to selling all my individual stocks recently. If the market crashes down 20% then I'm putting it all in a broad market U.S. etf. If the market continues to sell off little by little each day then I'll put a little of my cash into the index ETF as the market sells off.

Regardless of what happens, I plan to put whatever cash I have remaining at the end of October into the index etf. It seems like October is the month where crashes happen, so why not try to get some money in during a crash?

Sportswhiz00
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Sportswhiz00 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:18 pm

I’ll back the truck up on January 1 when my various plan limits reset to zero for 2019. Until then, and after then, I’ll pay no little to no attention to what is happening.

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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:26 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:12 pm
I've got about 13% of my port in cash at the moment due to selling all my individual stocks recently. If the market crashes down 20% then I'm putting it all in a broad market U.S. etf. If the market continues to sell off little by little each day then I'll put a little of my cash into the index ETF as the market sells off.

Regardless of what happens, I plan to put whatever cash I have remaining at the end of October into the index etf. It seems like October is the month where crashes happen, so why not try to get some money in during a crash?
You’re reading too much financial news. I’d recommend investing it all tomorrow. Futures show it’ll likely be a better deal than today.

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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:47 pm

delamer wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:50 pm
How will you handle these cash reserves if there isn’t a 10% or more downturn in the next, say, 2 years?

What if the market goes up 15% more and then goes down 10%? You have fewer shares than if you bought today. And you will have missed out on any dividends in the meantime.

I don’t have any such reserves, and don’t really understand the reasoning.
Even though I'm a trend follower, I totally agree. Invest according to your IPS, which it sounds like the OP doesn't have.
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3funder
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by 3funder » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:43 pm

GammaPoint wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:08 pm
VTI around 100 would probably cause me to do something irregular, or maybe VXUS around 35. VWO at 32-34 or so would make me a little jittery to buy a lot more too.

Today's drop was nothing though. I can easily remember, say, VTI up at 125 and buying it then thinking it was a little frothy. Until VTI drops below that, definitely not going to do something abnormal (obviously this price threshold doesn't hold forever, but just in the near term).

I know people think that there are good reasons for the P/E ratios to go up over time (ease of investment, etc. etc.), but I think we live in a world with very real, tangible risks (low growth, environmental issues, geopolitical instability, etc), which mean that I personally am not comfortable paying higher prices for earnings. There are very real risks out there, and possibly not just the kind that you can ride out with a long-term view. Too many people have adapted what was a useful mantra in the past, that "risk" meant simply that one had to wait 10 years to get paid. And because too many people believe that, I think there is a chance that risk means something much more damaging to a portfolio then backtests would suggest.
I've been dollar cost averaging extra money into VXUS since it dropped 10% in the second week of February. VXUS at $35/share would be the steal of a lifetime. I'd back up my own truck then steal everyone else's truck and back them up too if VXUS hit $35/share. I think it's a fine value at $50/share. VTI could drop another 20% and US stocks would still be rather expensive; I invest in VTI, but I think the bear would have to really roar for me to invest any EXTRA money in it.

Smoke
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Smoke » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:49 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Today is what I call a real sell off day
Seriously?
I wouldn't get out of bed for this small of a "Fluctuation"
Not my first rodeo.

CarpeDiem22
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by CarpeDiem22 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:04 am

I'll be backing up my truck when P/E ratio falls below the long-term average. While I agree that P/E ratio shows a slight upward trend with time, but that doesn't mean that the ratio doesn't fluctuate.

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JoMoney
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:18 am

I might back-up the truck to dump a load if bond yields were high enough, valuations and sentiment seemed frothy enough, and I had some upcoming expenses that I would prefer not to be risking in stocks.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:31 am

I don't market time, and I don't have "cash reserves". I do have an IPS that specifies that I rebalance when certain criteria are met (5/25 rules).
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Momus
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Momus » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:16 am

TheNightsToCome wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:33 pm
badger42 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 pm
CAPE10 below 20
CAPE below 10 for me -- for "backing up the truck."
2009 like event (50% off), probably won't happen again but we never know...

If it does, I'll heloc and ask for inheritance early!

Ari
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Ari » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:10 am

Yeah, I don't have any money to buy more stocks for if they go on sale. If I did, I'd buy more stocks today!
All in, all the time.

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Tamarind
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Tamarind » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:15 am

My wife procrastinated on making her Roth IRA contribution for 2018, and I'm encouraging her to go ahead and do it. She'll be buying mostly international equities, because that's what we've allocated to her Roth. We're a smidge underweight in them currently, but not enough to trigger rebalancing.

We are only 10% to target, so contributions far outweigh market movements still.

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blaugranamd
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by blaugranamd » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:25 am

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm
Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this.

If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money in fixed income. This isn't a plan waiting for a market crash, but rather out of having no need to take additional risk.

Now if the market declined a lot, like 20% or more, that would present an opportunity to allow using that fixed income built up earlier. If the market kept going up what would I do? nothing, because my goals are being met and I have no need to take more risk.
I think the point is you'll be better off putting that extra fixed income into stock AA during the run up rather than in fixed income and waiting for large "rebalancing" opportunity.
-- Don't mistake more funds for more diversity: Total Int'l + Total Market = 7k to 10k stocks -- | -- Market return does NOT = average nor 50th percentile, rather 80-90th percentile long term ---

Elysium
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by Elysium » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:18 am

blaugranamd wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:25 am
Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm
Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this.

If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money in fixed income. This isn't a plan waiting for a market crash, but rather out of having no need to take additional risk.

Now if the market declined a lot, like 20% or more, that would present an opportunity to allow using that fixed income built up earlier. If the market kept going up what would I do? nothing, because my goals are being met and I have no need to take more risk.
I think the point is you'll be better off putting that extra fixed income into stock AA during the run up rather than in fixed income and waiting for large "rebalancing" opportunity.
I don't know why it is so hard to understand that I am not building fixed income waiting on a market correction. If my need to take risk has reduced then buying fixed income is the plan. Now if market declines take the value to a point where the need to take risk has increased, then buying more equities is in the plan. This is all part of an IPS, some people confuse AA as a static number written down with no relation to your goals. It is not just enough to have an AA, and a re-balancing plan, but you also need to re-evaluate your need, ability, and willingness to take risk based on your changing life situations. I was a buyer in March 2009, the only thing I regret about then is not building up cash reserves during the run up, so that I could have bought even more.

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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by smitcat » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:11 am

Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm
Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this.

If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money in fixed income. This isn't a plan waiting for a market crash, but rather out of having no need to take additional risk.

Now if the market declined a lot, like 20% or more, that would present an opportunity to allow using that fixed income built up earlier. If the market kept going up what would I do? nothing, because my goals are being met and I have no need to take more risk.
This sounds like a very long way to describe rebalancing.

goblue100
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by goblue100 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:26 am

Kenkat wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 pm
When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck.
Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009.
Last edited by goblue100 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:44 am

goblue100 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:26 am
Kenkat wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 pm
When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck.
Best answer in the thread. I don;t think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009.
Most of the trucks got repossessed.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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HomerJ
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by HomerJ » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:53 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:05 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. This is a plan to buy more than what you have allocated by backing up the truck because hamburgers went on sale. Your know the whole greedy when others are fearful thing.

To me it is 20% drop from current levels, and that inlcudes today's sell off. I would be very tempted at 10% drop to wade in.

What is your back up the truck point?

Please no what is your IPS tell you sort of thing, we already know that.
I'll start worrying mildly when there is a 80% stock market decline. I don't hold more than 20% of my portfolio in paper assets. That is asking for trouble. Buy real assets that produce income! :D
Oh yeah, because if the market drops 80%, unemployment in your area, vacancies, rent, and property values won't be affected at all. :oops:
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dh
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by dh » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:14 am

My plan is to stay with my asset allocation and rebalance when / if it falls 5% outside my allocation. However, I have a "nudge" in my IPS: If the CAPE PE10 is <10.0 (currently 31.5), then I will increase my stock allocation to 75% (25% fixed income). My nudge may sound like market timing to those who stay with the same allocation; however, I included it in my IPS based on the idea that markets would represent tremendous value. I humorously wanted to include another caveat: Adjust asset allocation to 75/25 if a reputable magazine's lead story is "The Death of Equities 2.0" :sharebeer

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ReformedSpender
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:14 am

3funder wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:43 pm

I've been dollar cost averaging extra money into VXUS since it dropped 10% in the second week of February. VXUS at $35/share would be the steal of a lifetime. I'd back up my own truck then steal everyone else's truck and back them up too if VXUS hit $35/share. I think it's a fine value at $50/share. VTI could drop another 20% and US stocks would still be rather expensive; I invest in VTI, but I think the bear would have to really roar for me to invest any EXTRA money in it.
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Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

WanderingDoc
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:30 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:53 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:05 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. This is a plan to buy more than what you have allocated by backing up the truck because hamburgers went on sale. Your know the whole greedy when others are fearful thing.

To me it is 20% drop from current levels, and that inlcudes today's sell off. I would be very tempted at 10% drop to wade in.

What is your back up the truck point?

Please no what is your IPS tell you sort of thing, we already know that.
I'll start worrying mildly when there is a 80% stock market decline. I don't hold more than 20% of my portfolio in paper assets. That is asking for trouble. Buy real assets that produce income! :D
Oh yeah, because if the market drops 80%, unemployment in your area, vacancies, rent, and property values won't be affected at all. :oops:
Look up rents. They are non-volatile. They just move very slowly in a straight line slightly up over time. Secondly, markets are local.

Even property values are a lot less volatile than equities, but rental rates are incredibly stable and slow moving. In my predominant market, property values fell 5-8% and rents ROSE in 2006-2009. Don't assume what is true for paper is true for real estate.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

aptget
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Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Post by aptget » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:41 am

When the S&P goes below 2400, and has been rising again for at least a month.

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