Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

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acanthurus
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by acanthurus » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:18 pm

I am on a similar diet, for similar reasons, and one thing that strikes me is how variable the prices can be. The foods I eat can't effectively be stored long term, and can have very good / very bad years and corresponding price fluctuations (beef and pork in particular). I have joked about hedging my exposure with pork belly futures and such.

Perhaps we could talk Meb Faber into doing a "KETO" ticker symbol etf, as sort of a managed futures product to hedge the average low carb dieter's food cost.

bhsince87
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by bhsince87 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:21 pm

I just saw a report from a medical device maker that specializes in diabetes treatment.

They estimate that there are currently about 500 million people globally with diabetes, and the rate is growing at about 6% per year. And only about 50% of those folks have diabetes under control.

The bottom line for them was, this area will continue to be a growing market for many years.
Retirement: When you reach a point where you have enough. Or when you've had enough.

2015
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by 2015 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:01 pm

J295 wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:20 am
Food consumption is not altering my index investing.
This.
Things like one's personal politics, religion, personal habits, predictions, etc. have no place in index investing (or anywhere in my own investing, for that matter). The market doesn't care about our individual beliefs or desires. In fact, in the normal course of events, it will do its best to thwart them. Just about everything related to market investing is luck. All else is ego or perceptual/cognitive blindness. History shows life does not lend itself well to human narratives.

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MnyGrl
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by MnyGrl » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:41 am

Most people try but don't stick to major lifestyle changes:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... le/475065/

bloom2708
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by bloom2708 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:55 am

I think you have a multiple phase problem.

1. Figure out the weight/BMI you should be at for your height. I'm 6-1, 47. I should be ~165 to 170. Say 12% body fat.
2. Figure out how to GET to that weight. This can be done with certain diets, exercise, going against your environment, peer pressure, etc
3. Figure out how to STAY at that weight. This is where many fail. You can do some crazy diet, eat only bacon, run 5 marathons, but you have to be able to do it day in, day out.
4. Set a "Code Red" weight 3-5 pounds above your goal weight. If I hit 173 (just an example), I am in Code Red!!! True panic mode. Do something now.

I can't believe how many people fluctuate 20, 30 pounds in a very short period of time. Just like your asset allocation should have 2,3 or 5% bands to re-balance, so should your weight. You step on the scale and see you are 5 pounds off. TODAY, now is the time to act.

My spouse is overweight. She has done diets and proved she can get down to her goal weight. She just can't stay there. In theory, I don't care what someone weighs, except that I don't want people to die. That may sound cold, but don't die. Being overweight for long periods has all kinds of health risks. I may be at my goal weight and STILL die from something else. At least I'm not just shrugging my shoulders and saying "well, something will kill me..guess my weight doesn't really matter."

Tough stuff. No easy solution. If you want to be thin, do things that thin people do. :confused

How that translates into acting/investing. I don't know. Likely zero direct actions you can take. 3 fund, total market index, low cost.
Last edited by bloom2708 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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new2bogle
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by new2bogle » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:30 am

simplesimon wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:45 pm
These diets are not affordable enough for it to go mainstream.
This is exactly the comment my wife made.

Murgatroyd
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by Murgatroyd » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:58 am

I speak as a former food manufacturing and retailing marketer/exec of many years. There are dozens of products you see in stores that I introduced.

The best avenue for you to “play” in this arena is to watch IPO’s. And be ready to get in and out FAST! There are little to no barriers to entry in this industry and anything that grows fast will be seen and imitated (commoditized) rapidly. So whatever innovator advantages exist will be crushed, margin wise.

Also bear in mind that what looks like a sustainable trend usually is not. Most of these things are fads that are diminished in 3-5 years. There is always something new.

Best of luck.

RadAudit
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by RadAudit » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:08 pm

I don’t think that Type 2 diabetes will disappear, but I wonder if it might become less profitable for pharmaceutical companies.
Probably not. I've been working the NIH's (?) Type 2 prevention program for more than 1 1/2 years. Simple plan. Eat less, exercise more. Or, calories out > calories in. Not easy. I doubt if there would be enough individuals in the US who would stick to such a program to materially impact the profits of either pharmaceutical or weight loss companies.

OP, congrats on your life-style changes. But, I'd stick my IPS and original investment plan.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The Calvary isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

Traveller
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by Traveller » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:21 pm

dm200 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:38 pm
Many of the fast food and places like Ruby Tuesday are not doing that well financially.
Some fast food places must be doing well as i just heard on the news that the CDC has recently released a study showing that over one-third of american adults eat fast food on any given day. :shock:

I also found it interesting that the higher the income, the more fast food was eaten.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:05 pm

RadAudit wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:08 pm
I don’t think that Type 2 diabetes will disappear, but I wonder if it might become less profitable for pharmaceutical companies.
Probably not. I've been working the NIH's (?) Type 2 prevention program for more than 1 1/2 years. Simple plan. Eat less, exercise more. Or, calories out > calories in. Not easy. I doubt if there would be enough individuals in the US who would stick to such a program to materially impact the profits of either pharmaceutical or weight loss companies.

OP, congrats on your life-style changes. But, I'd stick my IPS and original investment plan.
With respect, I spent more than 20 years trying to consume fewer calories than i expended. Failed. OTOH, I’ve had resounding success with a new approach.

I will, however, stick to my investing plan, as you suggest. If I hear of a few companies that I’m interested in going public, I will invest, but no more than a few percent of our portfolio.
Zero Net Carbon by 2019.

PVW
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by PVW » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:00 pm

It's tough to invest in a revolution because you don't know who is going to be left standing.

As a classic example, look at the internet revolution - there were a lot of good ideas that failed to pay off. Hindsight might show we are in the middle of a revolution in currency (bitcoin, etc.) but I'm not brave enough to try to pick a winner. We might be on the precipice of an Artificial Intelligence revolution, but I can't predict if anyone is going to make money off it.

Personally, I don't think there is a big change in healthy living. It might be that you are paying more attention to it. But even if there was, then you also have to pick the businesses that know how to profit from this change. I do think there is an inevitable change in the consumer aspects of medical care and prescription drugs. Given the rate of increase in cost, I don't think it is sustainable and there will be a significant change that won't benefit the healthcare companies. But predicting the winners and losers is beyond me.

Mike Scott
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by Mike Scott » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:13 pm

The same companies package and sell you junk food and health food. They will produce whatever food consumers will buy. If I were betting on a narrow stock group for growth potential it would be "vice" funds not "health food" and a Total Stock Market fund should catch most of them and will pick up any of the new ones that are doing well.

carguyny
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by carguyny » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:17 pm

One way to play out your thesis and also continued population growth is to invest in Water and Agriculture. Many ways to do this, but if you took a small allocation (5% or so) in these sectors you can play your bet. Note it's a bet, despite what you think health wise. I've always taken very serious care of my self (started Paleo 15 years ago before it was wide spread) and I think everyone who does a major lifestyle change for themselves convinces them it's a hugely investible idea and the world will change.

CFM300
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by CFM300 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:18 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:05 pm
With respect, I spent more than 20 years trying to consume fewer calories than i expended. Failed. OTOH, I’ve had resounding success with a new approach.
Congratulations on your success. Can you elaborate?

Success at losing weight or eliminating your needs for meds (or both)? Is the new approach what you outlined in your original post? Do you think your dietary changes have reduced your average caloric intake?

To your question about investing, I'd just stick with a total market approach.

stan1
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by stan1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:30 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:07 pm
Travel the US more and survey the physiques and eating habits of other people. The vast majority of people I see are obviously not in step with you. If I were to invest on that basis, I would take the exact opposite side of what you are considering.

I agree with the suggestions not to base your investing decisions on your personal steps to a healthier life. And congratulations!
Yep, go look at Cracker Barrel's stock over last 30 years. Should have bought it with MSFT and AAPL.

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ram
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Re: Should I, and how, act on changes in managing diet and health?

Post by ram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:33 pm

Tomato,
See attached link about obesity in US.
https://stateofobesity.org/adult-obesity/
If I wanted to bet I would bet on an increasing amount of obesity during my remaining lifespan. The best I anticipate will happen will be a flattening of the curve over the next 2 to 3 decades.
However as the proportion and absolute number of obese people in the country increases there will be more opportunities to serve them:
Weight watchers
Plus size dress boutiques.
Chairs/ Beds designed for 400 Lb weight.
Patient transfer equipment that can handle 500 lbs etc.
Elevators that can handle more weight (Have you looked at the labels in elevators about Max weight/ max number of people. The math does not work. Those numbers were probably appropriate in 1970 and nobody has changed them since.)

Vanguard, Fidelity: ?A case for Obesity ETF.

I think for us Bogleheads the Total Market MF/ ETF will serve us satisfactorily. But for those who want a higher risk, higher return opportunity there may be some opportunities with the changing demographics.
Ram

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