madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by madsinger » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:12 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Sep     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2018    2018    2015    2013    2008    1999
VFINX             0.55%  10.44%  11.84%  15.43%   8.77%   6.36%
Sheltered Sam    -0.30%   3.66%   8.68%  11.45%   6.70%   7.88%
Hot Hands        -1.44%   2.46%   3.42%   9.62%   3.49%  10.42%
                  
Newsletter G     -0.09%   8.60%  10.97%  14.68%   8.25%   9.99%
Newsletter G-IND  0.28%   8.50%  10.56%  13.83%   7.96%   7.35%
s&d              -0.59%   2.05%   6.98%   9.04%   6.11%   7.45%
3 fund            0.06%   3.99%   7.87%   9.69%   6.07%   6.20%
LS G              0.09%   3.84%   7.80%   9.91%   5.71%   5.69%

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Newsletter CG     0.09%   7.70%   9.96%  13.19%   7.83%   8.42%
Wellington        0.23%   3.57%   7.68%  10.05%   7.31%   7.62%
STAR             -0.18%   4.02%   7.46%   9.17%   6.58%   6.90%
coffeehouse      -0.68%   2.43%   5.80%   7.92%   6.40%   7.05%
LS MG            -0.03%   2.72%   6.33%   7.92%   5.29%   5.50%
                  
Newsletter Inc    0.57%   6.70%   8.46%  10.62%   7.40%   6.39%
Wellesley        -0.23%   0.18%   5.17%   6.36%   6.61%   6.66%
LS CG            -0.18%   1.54%   4.77%   5.88%   4.57%   5.05%
                  
madsinger        -0.90%   1.25%   5.48%   7.54%   5.37%   
madsinger PP     -0.72%  -0.83%   3.34%         

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by madsinger » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:18 pm

US stocks are now up over +10% YTD. Value stocks a bit less. International stocks are down for the year with emerging markets downs almost -9%. The portfolios that are US stock heavy are doing very well. Any tilt towards bonds and International lowers the returns. Gold continues a long streak of months going lower.

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           STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January    5.69%   -3.23%     0.10%   3.28%    1.48%
February  -3.72%   -2.92%     0.10%  -2.01%   -2.17%
March     -2.52%    2.79%     0.11%   0.55%    0.16%
April      0.37%   -2.00%     0.10%  -0.86%   -0.61%
May        2.41%    1.86%     0.12%  -1.27%    0.79%
June       0.58%    0.63%     0.08%  -3.53%   -0.52%
July       3.66%   -1.30%     0.10%  -2.30%    0.10%
August     3.26%    1.25%     0.16%  -2.04%    0.66%
September  0.52%   -2.74%     0.11%  -0.61%   -0.68%
               
YTD       10.17%   -5.62%     0.98%  -8.68%   -0.81%

chisey
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by chisey » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:40 pm

Thanks as always, Brad.
madsinger wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:18 pm
US stocks are now up over +10% YTD. Value stocks a bit less. International stocks are down for the year with emerging markets downs almost -9%. The portfolios that are US stock heavy are doing very well. Any tilt towards bonds and International lowers the returns.
Our portfolio tilts away from the S&P 500 heavily in all directions, so this has been a painful year for tracking error so far.

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bengal22
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by bengal22 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:26 pm

Thanks madsinger. Benchmarking is very useful for me. I also use vanguard balance index and target retirement 2015 and 2020 to sense check my 55/45 AA.
"Earn All You Can; Give All You Can; Save All You Can." .... John Wesley

Mike Scott
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by Mike Scott » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:17 pm

Thanks! This is always a good update.

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Peter Foley
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Location: Lake Wobegon

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Post by Peter Foley » Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:22 pm

Thanks for producing this regularly. I'm planning on doing a BH presentation on a number of commonly recommended portfolios. Having a place to go to see the return of many of them at once is great.

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