Barron's US market analysis

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olliema
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Barron's US market analysis

Post by olliema » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:28 am

I thought this was a good article that led with facts and statistics as related to the bull market, and might be worth a scan.

Would be interested in counter arguments to their position that 2020 or thereabouts will have many factors that put the US market in a flat or bear market.

The part where they give advice on how to prepare for a post bull market was disappointing (buy single stocks and no mention of non US markets/indexes) but the analysis part was interesting.

I feel like they are prescribing a beat-the-market approach that would be hard for most to execute with less long-term risk.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-th ... d=barpkt19

AlohaJoe
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by AlohaJoe » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:44 am

And it was not long ago in 2017 when the same journalist was writing articles about "Black Monday 2.0: The Next Machine-Driven Meltdown" and "The last time momentum as a strategy outperformed by this much? You guessed it. 1999" and "How This Market Will End: After an eight-year climb, stocks are pricey, rates are rising and the world is in turmoil. Our guide to spotting the turn."

Guess he decided that writing pessimistic articles wasn't generating enough ad revenue.

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2pedals
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by 2pedals » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:51 am

I love the Barron's cover. A nice thick slice of beef. I am salivating, my lizard brain is saying I need that magazine now!

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goodenyou
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by goodenyou » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:57 am

Amazon.bomb
Just over a month ago, the stock market was indicating that Amazon was worth a remarkable $36 billion and that Bezos' own stake was worth $13 billion.
:oops:

Predictions from the past are fun to read.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB927932262753284707
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | Do you know how to make a rain dance work? Dance until it rains.

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whodidntante
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by whodidntante » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:59 am

Nice paywall.

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unclescrooge
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by unclescrooge » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:02 am

olliema wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:28 am
I thought this was a good article that led with facts and statistics as related to the bull market, and might be worth a scan.

Would be interested in counter arguments to their position that 2020 or thereabouts will have many factors that put the US market in a flat or bear market.

The part where they give advice on how to prepare for a post bull market was disappointing (buy single stocks and no mention of non US markets/indexes) but the analysis part was interesting.

I feel like they are prescribing a beat-the-market approach that would be hard for most to execute with less long-term risk.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-th ... d=barpkt19
They mentioned quality stocks with cash heavy balance sheets, not individual stocks. You should already be investing in ETFs that favor these types of companies.

There problem is all these ETFs charge 10x the 5bp fees everyone is now used to, so you won't find much traction for them here.

minesweep
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Re: Barron's US market analysis

Post by minesweep » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:02 am

It could happen as stated, or not. Nobody really knows. I guess we have to wait and see. Know your own risk tolerance and stay the course. I recall Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance speech on stocks back in 1996 (that turned out to be several years premature). He also made some predictions back in 2016 & 2017.

January 2018 article:
Greenspan Warns: We have a stock market bubble

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