DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

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Almost there
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DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by Almost there » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 am

Yesterday the DOW closed at 26,154. Do you think it will top 26,616 from January 2018 by the end of 2018?

Almost there

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Re: DOW

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:05 pm

yes I do

JoeRetire
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Re: DOW

Post by JoeRetire » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:17 pm

Maybe

bob60014
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Re: DOW

Post by bob60014 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:06 pm

Curious as to why you ask. Do you have a bet with someone? :)

Almost there
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Re: DOW

Post by Almost there » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:13 pm

No I don’t. Just saw the beginning year number and wondered if it’ll reach that number by the end of the year.

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JoMoney
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Re: DOW

Post by JoMoney » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:23 pm

It will happen. I wouldn't bet on a time frame, if I was willing to do that the options market makes that possible.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

22twain
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by 22twain » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:01 pm

Why the Dow? It's been lagging broader-market indexes this year.

S&P 500: from about 2696 to about 2905 (about +7.8%).

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): from $138.22 to $150.28 (about +8.7%).
My investing princiPLEs do not include absolutely preserving princiPAL.

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willthrill81
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Re: DOW

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:09 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:23 pm
It will happen. I wouldn't bet on a time frame, if I was willing to do that the options market makes that possible.
Rule #1 of economics: you can predict what or when but never both at the same time. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

veggivet
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by veggivet » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:48 pm

I think we've seen the highs of the year at this point in all indexes...

hdas
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by hdas » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:15 am

Almost there wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 am
Yesterday the DOW closed at 26,154. Do you think it will top 26,616 from January 2018 by the end of 2018?

Almost there
You could put some numbers on the table and look at:
- The expected value (baseline) for the total # days left.
- Same as above but using the calendar days
- Same as above but conditional on ytd return
- Same as above but conditional on being election year
- Same as above but conditional on interest rates, dollar

Then find a sensible way to integrate your expectations in a single forecast....

Cheers, :greedy

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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:22 am

hdas wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:15 am
Almost there wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 am
Yesterday the DOW closed at 26,154. Do you think it will top 26,616 from January 2018 by the end of 2018?

Almost there
You could put some numbers on the table and look at:
- The expected value (baseline) for the total # days left.
- Same as above but using the calendar days
- Same as above but conditional on ytd return
- Same as above but conditional on being election year
- Same as above but conditional on interest rates, dollar

Then find a sensible way to integrate your expectations in a single forecast....

Cheers, :greedy
Your post makes me think of Jack Bogle saying: "I can't time the market and I don't know anyone who knows anyone who can time the market."

lostdog
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by lostdog » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:37 am

I don't know.
Hear the clock ticking? That’s your life flying by while you listen to market pundits and watch stock prices fluctuate. -Humble Dollar

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LadyGeek
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:33 pm

I removed an off-topic post and several replies which may be the result of a misunderstanding (political comment).

Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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Almost there
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by Almost there » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:04 pm

Thank you LadyGeek

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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:38 pm

Almost there wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 am
Yesterday the DOW closed at 26,154. Do you think it will top 26,616 from January 2018 by the end of 2018?

Almost there
I am guessing you are being satirical?

But to play it straight: no stock index is ever predictable.

The definitive answer is: Yes, No & Maybe.

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LadyGeek
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Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:12 pm

I removed some off-topic posts and one reply. This thread has run its course and is locked. See: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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