U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
lostdog
Posts: 3587
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

cj2018 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:43 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:40 am
jason2459 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:36 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:31 am Reverse in progress. Another tweet?
Pelosi saying no airline deal with out stimulus deal.
Reversal has reversed.

Back to our regularly scheduled soaring.
As an more educated investor, he must be disappointed it wasn't "another tweet" that caused the reverse in progress lol.
lol...
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1394
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Another day, another “moment” for large cap value. SCHD is up a whopping 1.3% right now.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
Last edited by mrspock on Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68614
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic comment regarding the latest status on the stimulus bill. The discussion was getting derailed.

Please stay on-topic, which is the market (increasing).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 934
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

mrspock wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:52 pm Another day, another “moment” for large cap value. SCHD is up a whopping 1.3% right now.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a good day for US value, big or small... but growth hasn't been dethroned quite yet, imo. I have a tilt to growth still, but I'm buying SCV with each paycheck.

EM - Latin America had a monster day, but I am too risk averse to put more than play money in it, so I made all of $37.50. Weekend pizza is paid for.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1394
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Portfolio7 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:38 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:52 pm Another day, another “moment” for large cap value. SCHD is up a whopping 1.3% right now.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a good day for US value, big or small... but growth hasn't been dethroned quite yet, imo. I have a tilt to growth still, but I'm buying SCV with each paycheck.

EM - Latin America had a monster day, but I am too risk averse to put more than play money in it, so I made all of $37.50. Weekend pizza is paid for.
Not too shabby! Ya I wouldn’t touch Latin America.... I file it under “governance challenges”. Yes, I live in a glass house.... but the panes are much thicker.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6410
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:17 am Looks like another soaring day ahead.

European markets are strong. US futures are too. :moneybag
European markets not as strong as yesterday, but US futures are up. Looking like a strong close to a good week. :moneybag
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
lostdog
Posts: 3587
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

:moneybag
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
Blue456
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:46 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Strong Friday start.
CurlyDave
Posts: 2259
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Blue456 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:37 am Strong Friday start.
Retreating a little bit from a nice beginning. OTOH any up day is a good thing.

NASDAQ is feeling its oats this morning, a good thing for the Curly Family Portfolio.
Last edited by CurlyDave on Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
Blue456
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:46 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:25 am
Blue456 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:37 am Strong Friday start.
Retreating a little bit from a nice beginning. OTOH any up day is a good thing.
The day is young. The stocks will go up!
Keenobserver
Posts: 625
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

I dont mind a little pull back. Its much better than unbridled exubarance and bubble building. I like when the markets look lime they domt wanna act crazy.
Blue456
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:46 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Keenobserver wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:25 am I dont mind a little pull back. Its much better than unbridled exubarance and bubble building. I like when the markets look lime they domt wanna act crazy.
We will probably get our W when complete shut down is implemented early next year. For now I’m enjoying that middle peak :).
lostdog
Posts: 3587
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Blue456 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:35 am
Keenobserver wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:25 am I dont mind a little pull back. Its much better than unbridled exubarance and bubble building. I like when the markets look lime they domt wanna act crazy.
We will probably get our W when complete shut down is implemented early next year. For now I’m enjoying that middle peak :).
The shutdown could already be priced in. We just don't know.
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
TheDDC
Posts: 1238
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:11 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

Nobody wants a shutdown. That would be incredibly stupid and shortsighted during a recovery.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6410
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Melt up in progress
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
JD2775
Posts: 741
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:47 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JD2775 »

[ quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

:sharebeer

Back on topic, the markets are always green on paydays. I’m jinxed
Independent George
Posts: 1093
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 12:13 pm
Location: Chicago, IL, USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:20 am Back on topic, the markets are always green on paydays. I’m jinxed
Same. I wonder if there's some slight causation there, as people on bi-weekly payroll schedules buy through their 401k on the same date? Or would that have been long-since arbitraged out by now?
tommy85
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tommy85 »

Independent George wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:40 am
JD2775 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:20 am Back on topic, the markets are always green on paydays. I’m jinxed
Same. I wonder if there's some slight causation there, as people on bi-weekly payroll schedules buy through their 401k on the same date? Or would that have been long-since arbitraged out by now?
Feels that way to me every time my retirement contribution goes in :twisted:
Mr. Market is Bipolar.
User avatar
dogagility
Posts: 1288
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:41 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

TheDDC wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:56 am Nobody wants a shutdown. That would be incredibly stupid and shortsighted during a recovery.

-TheDDC
+1000
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68614
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post and reply which mentioned both COVID-19 and election results.

Please stay on-topic, which is the market (increasing).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Independent George
Posts: 1093
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 12:13 pm
Location: Chicago, IL, USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

tommy85 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:47 am
Independent George wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:40 am
JD2775 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:20 am Back on topic, the markets are always green on paydays. I’m jinxed
Same. I wonder if there's some slight causation there, as people on bi-weekly payroll schedules buy through their 401k on the same date? Or would that have been long-since arbitraged out by now?
Feels that way to me every time my retirement contribution goes in :twisted:
I should track it. Is there a good resource that lets me see what the S&P did on specific dates?
User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Independent George wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:31 pm
I should track it. Is there a good resource that lets me see what the S&P did on specific dates?
I just use plain ol' yahoo finance for daily data, if that's all you want.
A fool and your money are soon partners
rchmx1
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Heck of a week! :moneybag :sharebeer
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1394
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Fantastic way to finish off the week :sharebeer . That "retracement" everyone was talking about in June finally came, they were just off by about 1000pts. We retraced 3200's not the 2200's.... but hey, everyone makes mistakes.

3600.... we are coming for you.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
#stocksonlygoup
Keenobserver
Posts: 625
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Everytime I make investment decisions based the " expert" opinions, I have lost. I have found not watching the news and sticking to the fundamentals quite enduring indeed. This, of course, can be credited to the wisdom of you fine folks here.
finite_difference
Posts: 2214
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference »

abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
000
Posts: 4081
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
I assume the truck will continue to have gas as long as abuss368 keeps working.
finite_difference
Posts: 2214
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference »

mrspock wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:11 pm Fantastic way to finish off the week :sharebeer . That "retracement" everyone was talking about in June finally came, they were just off by about 1000pts. We retraced 3200's not the 2200's.... but hey, everyone makes mistakes.

3600.... we are coming for you.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
#stocksonlygoup
Looks like the SP500 all time high was September 2nd at 3581. I’d be impressed if we can retrace back to that level considering the circumstances. But we are only 3% away.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
finite_difference
Posts: 2214
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference »

000 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:40 pm
finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
I assume the truck will continue to have gas as long as abuss368 keeps working.
Wouldn’t that be done automatically on a biweekly or monthly basis though? And not a daily one? :D
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
ronno2018
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ronno2018 »

Lady Geek can I send you some money? LOL. Crazy times and I appreciate your moderation! :sharebeer
000
Posts: 4081
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:42 pm Wouldn’t that be done automatically on a biweekly or monthly basis though? And not a daily one? :D
I think at this point we can safely assume that no one's in the truck, a brick is on the gas pedal, and the gear shift is duct taped into R.

Also, Common Sense on Mutual Funds on tape is playing on repeat in the tape deck and a Vanguard coffee mug is precariously balanced on the dash.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
Truck is huge! I constantly upgrade the load capacity to keep buying!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:41 pm
finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
Truck is huge! I constantly upgrade the load capacity to keep buying!
While I am a believer in always being fully invested according to your preferred asset allocation, this is not the time to be "backing up the truck". US Stocks are not cheap here and it is alarming to see the NASDAQ advance by over 100 points a day on its up days. It almost seems like the Fear Of Missing Out or the infamous FOMO. I saw this happen in early 2000 with similar panic buying of High Tech and Internet stocks. There is a lot of expectation built into the FAANG stocks. I have seen this movie before and it didn't end well.

If you have a lot of cash to invest, I would average it in over a year to avoid buyer's remorse if the market takes a dive. My advice would be to average into S&P 500 or Total Stock Market indexes over a 12 month period. Okay to buy International Stocks or US Value with a lump sum investment. I just don't like seeing the Nasdaq rocket up like this. FOMO doesn't play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.

I don't believe that we will see a 2000-2002 Tech Crash since we aren't seeing the insane valuations of late 1999 and early 2000. But there are pretty high expectations for the Large Growth Tech and Internet stocks and just piling into these type of stocks is just performance chasing. Fortunately, we aren't seeing euphoria, there still is some pessimism out there. So lots of similarities to early 2000 but some things are different too. Just a gentle reminder that the valuation gaps between Growth and Value are at all time highs and the last time this happened, the S&P 500 and Total Stock Market were flat for about 12 years.
A fool and his money are good for business.
rchmx1
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Friday kinda reminded me of end of the end of August run up. I wonder if we'll see some profit taking next week.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:05 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:41 pm
finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
Truck is huge! I constantly upgrade the load capacity to keep buying!
While I am a believer in always being fully invested according to your preferred asset allocation, this is not the time to be "backing up the truck". US Stocks are not cheap here and it is alarming to see the NASDAQ advance by over 100 points a day on its up days. It almost seems like the Fear Of Missing Out or the infamous FOMO. I saw this happen in early 2000 with similar panic buying of High Tech and Internet stocks. There is a lot of expectation built into the FAANG stocks. I have seen this movie before and it didn't end well.

If you have a lot of cash to invest, I would average it in over a year to avoid buyer's remorse if the market takes a dive. My advice would be to average into S&P 500 or Total Stock Market indexes over a 12 month period. Okay to buy International Stocks or US Value with a lump sum investment. I just don't like seeing the Nasdaq rocket up like this. FOMO doesn't play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.

I don't believe that we will see a 2000-2002 Tech Crash since we aren't seeing the insane valuations of late 1999 and early 2000. But there are pretty high expectations for the Large Growth Tech and Internet stocks and just piling into these type of stocks is just performance chasing. Fortunately, we aren't seeing euphoria, there still is some pessimism out there. So lots of similarities to early 2000 but some things are different too. Just a gentle reminder that the valuation gaps between Growth and Value are at all time highs and the last time this happened, the S&P 500 and Total Stock Market were flat for about 12 years.
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:05 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:41 pm
finite_difference wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:44 am I logged into Vanguard today to make sure the that truck of mine did back up and not run out of gas. All was good this week!
How much cash does this perpetual reverse truck have?

Is there a particular reason you’re not fully invested?
Truck is huge! I constantly upgrade the load capacity to keep buying!
While I am a believer in always being fully invested according to your preferred asset allocation, this is not the time to be "backing up the truck". US Stocks are not cheap here and it is alarming to see the NASDAQ advance by over 100 points a day on its up days. It almost seems like the Fear Of Missing Out or the infamous FOMO. I saw this happen in early 2000 with similar panic buying of High Tech and Internet stocks. There is a lot of expectation built into the FAANG stocks. I have seen this movie before and it didn't end well.

If you have a lot of cash to invest, I would average it in over a year to avoid buyer's remorse if the market takes a dive. My advice would be to average into S&P 500 or Total Stock Market indexes over a 12 month period. Okay to buy International Stocks or US Value with a lump sum investment. I just don't like seeing the Nasdaq rocket up like this. FOMO doesn't play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.

I don't believe that we will see a 2000-2002 Tech Crash since we aren't seeing the insane valuations of late 1999 and early 2000. But there are pretty high expectations for the Large Growth Tech and Internet stocks and just piling into these type of stocks is just performance chasing. Fortunately, we aren't seeing euphoria, there still is some pessimism out there. So lots of similarities to early 2000 but some things are different too. Just a gentle reminder that the valuation gaps between Growth and Value are at all time highs and the last time this happened, the S&P 500 and Total Stock Market were flat for about 12 years.
What exactly is going on with large Value. When I look at Vanguard’s US High Dividend Fund and the International high Dividend Fund, I am surprised by the results.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:46 pm

What exactly is going on with large Value. When I look at Vanguard’s US High Dividend Fund and the International high Dividend Fund, I am surprised by the results.
When people are quarantined this affects traditional retail, Amazon is a great alternative. When people are quarantined, they spend less money on gas. When people are quarantined and are bored, they will spend more time on the internet. When you have to attend class or work virtually, you might find that you need to upgrade your computers and software at home. When the pandemic hit, the Fed cut short term interest rates to nearly zero, which affected the banks. So you have a double whammy of money flowing to the High Tech/Internet companies and the adverse effects on the Financial and Energy sectors. Value funds tend to be heavy in such sectors as Financial and Energy.

US Value is down for the year and US Growth is hugely up.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble. What is happening is that investor expectations for these type of stocks are pretty high. As I said, too high investor expectations can make great companies mediocre investments, I found this out with my "Four Horsemen of Underperformance." In fact, the market itself can become a mediocre investment. The US Stock Market experienced the "Go Go Market" and the "Nifty Fifty", expectations went sky high and afterwards was flat from 1968 until 1984. We had the Tech/Internet boom of the 1990's and afterwards the US Stock Market was flat from 2000 until 2013.

You can do crazier things with your money than coupling your US Total Stock Market Index with a Value Index. If we experience another long period of the market being essentially flat, Value will look pretty darned good.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble. What is happening is that investor expectations for these type of stocks are pretty high. As I said, too high investor expectations can make great companies mediocre investments, I found this out with my "Four Horsemen of Underperformance." In fact, the market itself can become a mediocre investment. The US Stock Market experienced the "Go Go Market" and the "Nifty Fifty", expectations went sky high and afterwards was flat from 1968 until 1984. We had the Tech/Internet boom of the 1990's and afterwards the US Stock Market was flat from 2000 until 2013.

You can do crazier things with your money than coupling your US Total Stock Market Index with a Value Index. If we experience another long period of the market being essentially flat, Value will look pretty darned good.
Do you own a technology fund in your portfolio?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22604
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
jay22
Posts: 877
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jay22 »

The comparisons with the 2000 bubble are extremely silly. The underlying businesses and the balance sheets that the current big 4-6 tech companies have is mind boggling.
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:57 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble. What is happening is that investor expectations for these type of stocks are pretty high. As I said, too high investor expectations can make great companies mediocre investments, I found this out with my "Four Horsemen of Underperformance." In fact, the market itself can become a mediocre investment. The US Stock Market experienced the "Go Go Market" and the "Nifty Fifty", expectations went sky high and afterwards was flat from 1968 until 1984. We had the Tech/Internet boom of the 1990's and afterwards the US Stock Market was flat from 2000 until 2013.

You can do crazier things with your money than coupling your US Total Stock Market Index with a Value Index. If we experience another long period of the market being essentially flat, Value will look pretty darned good.
Do you own a technology fund in your portfolio?
I do not. I do own Microsoft and Applied Materials as individual stocks.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22604
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
Ah, the Palm Pilot. It pretty much killed the Apple Newton, if you recall that one. Apple rushed the Newton to the market, and while it had some nice features, it had some big bugs. Some of Apple's engineers were so annoyed that they left Apple to help make a better PDA, which gave birth to the Palm Pilot that dominated the PDA market until smart phones made that product category obsolete.

Businesspeople like to talk about brand loyalty, but it's seldom very deep. When a shinier widget comes along, the trendsetters are usually quick to adopt it, followed by the rest of the market. But the giants have learned a very effective strategy for dealing with that problem, taking a cue from Rockefeller himself: buy out the company that makes that shinier widget. There's something about the mega tech giants that resemble the Borg, if you recall that even older pop culture reference. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 14207
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is.

Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and panic buying in the High Tech/Internet stocks are cause for concern. FOMO does not play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22604
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pm Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is.

Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and panic buying in the High Tech/Internet stocks are cause for concern. FOMO does not play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.
LCG is dominated by mega tech right now, but I don't see small-caps outperforming any time soon. This year has shown the value of deep pockets, and the very well funded LCG firms have largely thrived, while their smaller brethren have struggled.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
000
Posts: 4081
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:58 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pm Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is.

Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and panic buying in the High Tech/Internet stocks are cause for concern. FOMO does not play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.
LCG is dominated by mega tech right now, but I don't see small-caps outperforming any time soon. This year has shown the value of deep pockets, and the very well funded LCG firms have largely thrived, while their smaller brethren have struggled.
Priced in?
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22604
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:58 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pm Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is.

Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and panic buying in the High Tech/Internet stocks are cause for concern. FOMO does not play Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.
LCG is dominated by mega tech right now, but I don't see small-caps outperforming any time soon. This year has shown the value of deep pockets, and the very well funded LCG firms have largely thrived, while their smaller brethren have struggled.
Priced in?
I don't believe in the EMH. The adaptive market hypothesis makes more sense to me.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
When I traded individual stocks, I had America On Line!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23045
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
What is interesting is my kids and their friends already consider Facebook for “old people”. They do not use it and instead use Instagram and What’s App among others.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Post Reply