U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:15 am Really strange markets. Traders freaked out after FOMC and now buying up as if nothing happened... :shock:
I think the Eagles said it best: ...Don't let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy...

If you listen to all the FOMC has to say it will drive you nuts. Watch what they actually do.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Why are we not assuming that all the inflation fears have been throughly priced in by the big boys? I see more upside then down rest of year. Unless something that was not foreseen at all by th3 suites strikes.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:15 am Really strange markets. Traders freaked out after FOMC and now buying up as if nothing happened... :shock:
The chicken littles just needed to be filtered out.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

I went from 25% s&p500 in 401k to 50% at close yesterday.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:18 am I went from 25% s&p500 in 401k to 50% at close yesterday.
It looks like Mr. Market is smiling on your decision so far. :D
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:38 am Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
You realize Nikkei also went -3.3% their Monday, right? You can't just flash +3.12% yesterday and ignore the day prior, which dropped much sharper than the US Friday (-1.33%).
xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

I'm pulling a reverse lostdog, and going to go for a hike here in beautiful southern california, while the Nasdaq is currently at all time highs. Keep the party rollin'!
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:04 pm I'm pulling a reverse lostdog, and going to go for a hike here in beautiful southern california, while the Nasdaq is currently at all time highs. Keep the party rollin'!
I'm heading out to the gym. Be back this afternoon.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:38 am Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
You realize Nikkei also went -3.3% their Monday, right? You can't just flash +3.12% yesterday and ignore the day prior, which dropped much sharper than the US Friday (-1.33%).
Why not? That is my question. Is VXUS based on the prior day or current day's performance? Current day is up 3.12% and up on other countries, yet current day VXUS is down.

I'm trying to understand how VXUS or any international ETF or mutual fund is priced.
visualguy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by visualguy »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:38 am Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
Good question, and this is not unusual. I don't know the answer. Maybe currency like you said. It's one of the reasons I don't feel comfortable investing in this and similar funds. The connection between what happens in the foreign stock markets and how the fund moves is unclear to me and is often not what I would have expected.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:22 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:38 am Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
You realize Nikkei also went -3.3% their Monday, right? You can't just flash +3.12% yesterday and ignore the day prior, which dropped much sharper than the US Friday (-1.33%).
Why not? That is my question. Is VXUS based on the prior day or current day's performance? Current day is up 3.12% and up on other countries, yet current day VXUS is down.

I'm trying to understand how VXUS or any international ETF or mutual fund is priced.
It's basically tracking this: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/FTSE_Gl ... x_US_Index. The page has a good summary of how the index is calculated, I recommend to go through it. There's obviously more to it than just Nikkei moving up and down.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:27 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:22 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:38 am Maybe slightly off topic and totally not actionable, but there are some smart people in here.

How can VXUS (Vanguard Total International) be down 0.22% today when its largest components were up? Is it all due to currency fluctuations?

FTSE 100 (London): +0.39%
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): +3.12%
SSE Composite (Shanghai): +0.80%
You realize Nikkei also went -3.3% their Monday, right? You can't just flash +3.12% yesterday and ignore the day prior, which dropped much sharper than the US Friday (-1.33%).
Why not? That is my question. Is VXUS based on the prior day or current day's performance? Current day is up 3.12% and up on other countries, yet current day VXUS is down.

I'm trying to understand how VXUS or any international ETF or mutual fund is priced.
It's basically tracking this: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/FTSE_Gl ... x_US_Index. The page has a good summary of how the index is calculated, I recommend to go through it. There's obviously more to it than just Nikkei moving up and down.
With all due respect, that doesn't answer my question or help at all. I never said it is just the Nikkei moving up and down. However, three of the largest indices in the international index all went up today, and the fund is down. I was just wondering why the fund would track differently.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I also get the sense that we are in a sort of 2015-16 sideways market where you kinda get dividends and not much else.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:37 pm With all due respect, that doesn't answer my question or help at all. I never said it is just the Nikkei moving up and down. However, three of the largest indices in the international index all went up today, and the fund is down. I was just wondering why the fund would track differently.
? That's 100% of the answer. VXUS tracks FTSE Global All Cap ex US. If FTSE Global All Cap ex US isn't moving right now then the traders are just making speculative plays, much like the SPX futures when the SPX isn't moving.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:39 am A much better morning for fans of QQQ and the 'DAQ.

Starting to soar a little, while the S&P is diving.
Indeed. Glad to see our bet paying off here. I'm doing 50/50 so the net effect was I loaded up more QQQ than VOO.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:15 am Really strange markets. Traders freaked out after FOMC and now buying up as if nothing happened... :shock:
This is how it ALWAYS works. Yesterday's news is always forgotten.

This is why it's pointless to look at day-to-day movements... But yeah, I get it... it's a fun thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HootingSloth »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:44 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:37 pm With all due respect, that doesn't answer my question or help at all. I never said it is just the Nikkei moving up and down. However, three of the largest indices in the international index all went up today, and the fund is down. I was just wondering why the fund would track differently.
? That's 100% of the answer. VXUS tracks FTSE Global All Cap ex US. If FTSE Global All Cap ex US isn't moving right now then the traders are just making speculative plays, much like the SPX futures when the SPX isn't moving.
To add to this a bit, the Nikkei is open each trading day from 8:30 PM Eastern to 2:00 AM Eastern, while VXUS trades from 9:30 AM Eastern to 4:00 PM Eastern, so they are never open at the same time. During the trading day, VXUS is presumably responding to "after hours" news about Japanese stocks (as well as what is happening in all of the other markets it covers), so the original question is a bit like asking "Why did futures go up last night, but stocks are down today?"
Last edited by HootingSloth on Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation
So in other other words, your previous predictions were completely wrong over the last couple of months.

Is that what you meant to say?
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:44 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:37 pm With all due respect, that doesn't answer my question or help at all. I never said it is just the Nikkei moving up and down. However, three of the largest indices in the international index all went up today, and the fund is down. I was just wondering why the fund would track differently.
? That's 100% of the answer. VXUS tracks FTSE Global All Cap ex US. If FTSE Global All Cap ex US isn't moving right now then the traders are just making speculative plays, much like the SPX futures when the SPX isn't moving.
So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ajcorpus »

z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:42 pm
Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I also get the sense that we are in a sort of 2015-16 sideways market where you kinda get dividends and not much else.
Sideways? What sideways? isnt SP500 up like 10% this year already ? I get that the year is not over...but sure doesnt seem sideways !
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

Ajcorpus wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:25 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:42 pm
Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I also get the sense that we are in a sort of 2015-16 sideways market where you kinda get dividends and not much else.
Sideways? What sideways? isnt SP500 up like 10% this year already ? I get that the year is not over...but sure doesnt seem sideways !
14.62%, according to the google.
Ajcorpus
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ajcorpus »

sailaway wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:27 pm
Ajcorpus wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:25 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:42 pm
Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I also get the sense that we are in a sort of 2015-16 sideways market where you kinda get dividends and not much else.
Sideways? What sideways? isnt SP500 up like 10% this year already ? I get that the year is not over...but sure doesnt seem sideways !
14.62%, according to the google.
There you go....even if we dont go anywhere from here on, Id call it a pretty successful year.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I will gladly accept 1.2 percent every two months, assuming inflation stays around 3 percent or less.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

I have to mention this. It was reported today that Jim Cramer's charitable investment portfolio exited its position in Disney. link Yet I remember in 2019 Cramer recommending Disney as one of two stocks to start your kids portfolio as a long term investment. "CNBC’s Jim Cramer says an index fund is the 'bedrock' investment for you and your child. But if you’re looking for stocks to hold for the long term, choose Disney and Nvidia, the 'Mad Money' host says." link

Anyway, I exited my position. I'm ashamed to say I initially bought it on his say-so (it's only funny money so thought this was okay) but since he now exited, figured I would too.
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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I'm confused by the sideways comment. Why do you think the market is going sideways?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:03 pm So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
I'm not ignoring anything lol
See this poster's excellent response: viewtopic.php?p=6080357#p6080357
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:03 pm So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
I'm not ignoring anything lol
See this poster's excellent response: viewtopic.php?p=6080357#p6080357
Why so condescending?

You feel that currency fluctuations play no role at all. I think that is incorrect.

Futures has nothing to do with it. There isn't even a futures market involved in this scenario.

I know a poster who will know, so I will PM him so as to not derail this thread.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:51 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:03 pm So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
I'm not ignoring anything lol
See this poster's excellent response: viewtopic.php?p=6080357#p6080357
Why so condescending?

You feel that currency fluctuations play no role at all. I think that is incorrect.

Futures has nothing to do with it. There isn't even a futures market involved in this scenario.

I know a poster who will know, so I will PM him so as to not derail this thread.
Because you got good responses but keep rejecting them for reasons beyond us. How do you not understand that the underlying index isn't moving right now?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:13 pm
xraygoggles wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:04 pm I'm pulling a reverse lostdog, and going to go for a hike here in beautiful southern california, while the Nasdaq is currently at all time highs. Keep the party rollin'!
I'm heading out to the gym. Be back this afternoon.
Keep pumping, lostdog.

Just keep pumping. :moneybag
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:57 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:51 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:03 pm So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
I'm not ignoring anything lol
See this poster's excellent response: viewtopic.php?p=6080357#p6080357
Why so condescending?

You feel that currency fluctuations play no role at all. I think that is incorrect.

Futures has nothing to do with it. There isn't even a futures market involved in this scenario.

I know a poster who will know, so I will PM him so as to not derail this thread.
Because you got good responses but keep rejecting them for reasons beyond us. How do you not understand that the underlying index isn't moving right now?
I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:04 pm I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
No one understands any better than anyone else, because your question essentially boils down to "why are stocks up or down today." If you understand that the index isn't moving, but the ETF is tradable, then that's basically the conclusion - traders are doing their thing.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HootingSloth »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:04 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:57 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:51 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:03 pm So you're saying that it's part tracking the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, part speculation?

If it tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US, it would be up today.

I think currency plays a big role that you're ignoring.
I'm not ignoring anything lol
See this poster's excellent response: viewtopic.php?p=6080357#p6080357
Why so condescending?

You feel that currency fluctuations play no role at all. I think that is incorrect.

Futures has nothing to do with it. There isn't even a futures market involved in this scenario.

I know a poster who will know, so I will PM him so as to not derail this thread.
Because you got good responses but keep rejecting them for reasons beyond us. How do you not understand that the underlying index isn't moving right now?
I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
Because VXUS is not currency-hedged, I don't think that differences in daily changes between VXUS and the component markets that it tracks can be explained by currency fluctuations. I think the fact that you are looking at a different point A and point B when you might think you are comparing the same period of time is the entire explanation. I could be wrong though. I'd be interested to hear what the person you are PMing has to say if you care to share.
Last edited by HootingSloth on Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Lostdog is pumping hard. Lets all hope he doesn’t peek before market close. The melt ups happen when he has no clue whats going on.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:07 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:04 pm I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
No one understands any better than anyone else, because your question essentially boils down to "why are stocks up or down today." If you understand that the index isn't moving, but the ETF is tradable, then that's basically the conclusion - traders are doing their thing.
Got it. So essentially, does it track an index or not? For example, if the ETF can trade at any level, what's to stop it from significantly different from the index? I suppose the same question can be asked of any ETF.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:19 pm Got it. So essentially, does it track an index or not? For example, if the ETF can trade at any level, what's to stop it from significantly different from the index? I suppose the same question can be asked of any ETF.
VXUS seeks to track the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index. I haven't extensively studied how well it tracks the index, but I suspect it tracks fairly well (most ETFs do).

And yes, same question can be asked of any ETF. You're right about it.

What's tricky here with respect to VXUS is, the ETF is traded when the index isn't moving, and vice versa. That's why the futures example during off-hours, brought up by another poster, is a good analogy.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Ajcorpus wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:25 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:42 pm
Forester wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:58 am Stock market is essentially unchanged over the last couple of months, up a paltry 1.2%, in other words keeping up with inflation the least one can expect. Much more of this and the suspicion is that the market is slowly rolling over, SPX above 4,000 being the head of the "head and shoulders" chart formation.
I also get the sense that we are in a sort of 2015-16 sideways market where you kinda get dividends and not much else.
Sideways? What sideways? isnt SP500 up like 10% this year already ? I get that the year is not over...but sure doesnt seem sideways !
Look at the chart for YTD to around April 16th then everything after that point, I see a significant slowing of the rate of increase that reminds me of 2015. Sometimes it takes a year or two to shake everything out and then keep moving up.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HootingSloth »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:19 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:07 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:04 pm I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
No one understands any better than anyone else, because your question essentially boils down to "why are stocks up or down today." If you understand that the index isn't moving, but the ETF is tradable, then that's basically the conclusion - traders are doing their thing.
Got it. So essentially, does it track an index or not? For example, if the ETF can trade at any level, what's to stop it from significantly different from the index? I suppose the same question can be asked of any ETF.
Right, I think it's the same question. In addition to the incentives of the people trading the ETF shares, the ability of "authorized participants" to create or redeem shares of the ETF in exchange for the underlying securities generally should prevent the price of the ETF from diverging from it's net asset value. Meanwhile, the skill of the managers in keeping the underlying securities close enough to the constituents of the index should prevent the net asset value from diverging from the index. Perhaps the authorized participant mechanism would work a bit less cleanly when a portion of the underlying securities cannot immediately be traded on the home stock exchange, because the after hours market would be less liquid. However, I doubt this is likely to produce a noticeably large divergence like the kind you are seeing.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here. It also helped that the poster Forester made a bearish comment earlier today.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HootingSloth wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:28 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:19 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:07 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:04 pm I completely understand that the underlying index is moving. I also understand that the hours that it moves are different than the hours that our stock exchanges are open. Finally, I understand that you're purposely being condescending and ignoring my question about currently fluctuations, likely because you don't understand it any better than I do.

The other answer that I received told some of the story, sure.
No one understands any better than anyone else, because your question essentially boils down to "why are stocks up or down today." If you understand that the index isn't moving, but the ETF is tradable, then that's basically the conclusion - traders are doing their thing.
Got it. So essentially, does it track an index or not? For example, if the ETF can trade at any level, what's to stop it from significantly different from the index? I suppose the same question can be asked of any ETF.
Right, I think it's the same question. In addition to the incentives of the people trading the ETF shares, the ability of "authorized participants" to create or redeem shares of the ETF in exchange for the underlying securities generally should prevent the price of the ETF from diverging from it's net asset value. Meanwhile, the skill of the managers in keeping the underlying securities close enough to the constituents of the index should prevent the net asset value from diverging from the index. Perhaps the authorized participant mechanism would work a bit less cleanly when a portion of the underlying securities cannot immediately be traded on the home stock exchange, because the after hours market would be less liquid. However, I doubt this is likely to produce a noticeably large divergence like the kind you are seeing.
Thanks for this explanation.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here.
Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here.
Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:58 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:58 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Then you should go 0/100.

If you can reach your retirement goal with 0/100, be 0/100....
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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