U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 305pelusa » Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:35 am

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:20 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:43 am
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:51 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 am
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:09 am

I was 100% stock during Telecom bust. I capitulated and lost 50% of my portfolio.

KlangFool
To be more precise, you were 100% Telecom stock. I'll let others develop their own conclusions as to what the real moral of your story should be.
305pelusa,

To be precise, I was less than 100% Telecom stock. All my telecom stocks suffered almost 100% loss. So, if I were 100% Telecom stock, I would have lost 100% of my portfolio instead of 50%.

But, the point is relevant anyhow. Many of the 100% stock folks have a significant amount of their money in the individual FAANG stocks.

KlangFool
Whoops, I got confused because here you said you were 100% individual Telecom stock:
viewtopic.php?t=229259
But you meant Telecom companies in general perhaps.

The problem with the folks you described is not that they're 100% stocks; it's that they have concentrated bets. They might also happen to have no bonds, but that's not where their problem lies
305pelusa,

<<I was 100/0 with individual Telecom stock during Telecom Boom and Bust.>>

Sorry for the confusion. My AA was 100/0. Aka 100% stock. Some were in S&P 500 index and some in individual Telecom stock.

<<The problem with the folks you described is not that they're 100% stocks; it's that they have concentrated bets. They might also happen to have no bonds, but that's not where their problem lies>>

I disagreed. Depending on the portfolio size, with 100% stock and zero emergency fund, it won't take much short-term unemployment for someone to lose their houses and be homeless.

KlangFool
It's fine if you believe that. My point is merely that your personal story is not a representative example at all of that scenario.

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:43 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:22 am
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:47 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:42 am
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:26 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:21 am

There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; certainly households' standard of living can go up without any change in real wages. In fact, they fell from the levels of 1979 and didn't reach them again until 1999, twenty years later. Yet during most of that time, U.S. stocks experienced one of the greatest bull markets ever.
willthrill81,

<<There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; >>

Correct. But, if the job market is as good as the unemployment rate implied, the real wages should grow a lot faster and bigger. That is my point. The numbers do not add up.

KlangFool
Why should real wages grow more and faster because the UER is so low? Do you believe something is wrong with the UER being reported?
willthrill81,

Do you believe that the low unemployment rate is a true reflection of the job market? That is the question.

I don't believe. So, I do not have a problem.

If you believe, please explain how real wages did not grow as fast as it should.

KlangFool
I don't know why real wages have or have not grown over any given period. I certainly don't know what rate they 'should' have grown at.
WillThrill81, Assuming I'm not missing a point you were trying to make, the Philips curve suggests that wage growth (and shortly thereafter inflation) should be roughly 3.5%, given the current unemployment rate. For June 2017 to June 2018 wages didn't grow at all. For June 2018 to June 2019 it grew 1.9%. Those are both nominal numbers. This article gives a short background. https://fortune.com/2019/06/14/phillips ... inflation/

I believe Klangfool is right that the 'numbers don't add up' from a historical perspective. Klangfool looks with suspicion on the metrics themselves. He's not wrong that what metrics measure can shift over time without it being obvious, but I disagree with him on this point. I think that automation is acting something like a Global driver of deflation. Or to say it another way, it's much easier now to create software (or hire someone overseas) than it used to be, and for businesses that more often makes sense. Therefore, low unemployment, but little wage pressure (exceptions exist of course). If labor costs more (cough $15 min wage cough), employers are going to choose a different option (automated ordering from a screen).
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:41 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:01 pm
As my investments compound and my gains soar I can't believe this is legal. I keep expecting Homeland Security to kick down my door and size my computer. People get ten to twenty stealing much less on Main Street. Wall Street is the place to steal and be looked up to for doing it. :greedy

There may be something to this Boglehead stuff.
This will last forever too. I'm 100% certain. NO doubt about it.

The market will never decline again, ever. Seriously. It's different this time. Soon we will all be billionaires.
Funding secured

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:15 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:43 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:22 am
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:47 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:42 am
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:26 am


willthrill81,

<<There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; >>

Correct. But, if the job market is as good as the unemployment rate implied, the real wages should grow a lot faster and bigger. That is my point. The numbers do not add up.

KlangFool
Why should real wages grow more and faster because the UER is so low? Do you believe something is wrong with the UER being reported?
willthrill81,

Do you believe that the low unemployment rate is a true reflection of the job market? That is the question.

I don't believe. So, I do not have a problem.

If you believe, please explain how real wages did not grow as fast as it should.

KlangFool
I don't know why real wages have or have not grown over any given period. I certainly don't know what rate they 'should' have grown at.
WillThrill81, Assuming I'm not missing a point you were trying to make, the Philips curve suggests that wage growth (and shortly thereafter inflation) should be roughly 3.5%, given the current unemployment rate. For June 2017 to June 2018 wages didn't grow at all. For June 2018 to June 2019 it grew 1.9%. Those are both nominal numbers. This article gives a short background. https://fortune.com/2019/06/14/phillips ... inflation/

I believe Klangfool is right that the 'numbers don't add up' from a historical perspective. Klangfool looks with suspicion on the metrics themselves. He's not wrong that what metrics measure can shift over time without it being obvious, but I disagree with him on this point. I think that automation is acting something like a Global driver of deflation. Or to say it another way, it's much easier now to create software (or hire someone overseas) than it used to be, and for businesses that more often makes sense. Therefore, low unemployment, but little wage pressure (exceptions exist of course). If labor costs more (cough $15 min wage cough), employers are going to choose a different option (automated ordering from a screen).
The Fortune article you linked to says the following:
Way back in 1958, economist William Phillips made an interesting observation. It seemed as though when unemployment went down, inflation went up. The inverse relationship became known as the Phillips Curve, and recently a lot of economic analysts and stock market watchers have been asking, with unemployment below 4%, why is inflation still so low (under 2%)?

First of all, Phillips didn’t actually say when unemployment fell, inflation would go up. After studying data between 1861 and 1957, he made the observation that when unemployment went down, wages tended to rise. Since inflation often goes up after that, other economists started using the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation as a short hand predictor of what might happen in the economy—and as a clue as to when central banks might raise interest rates in an effort to keep inflation at bay.
As is often the case with such data mined artifacts, it's far from being universally reliable, which the author notes.
In fact, there have been so many exceptions to the inverse relationship, its usefulness is often called into question.
So again, I don't know why real wages have or have not grown.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:55 pm

Sure. Nobody does. Fair enough.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:19 pm

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:35 am
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:20 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:43 am
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:51 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 am


To be more precise, you were 100% Telecom stock. I'll let others develop their own conclusions as to what the real moral of your story should be.
305pelusa,

To be precise, I was less than 100% Telecom stock. All my telecom stocks suffered almost 100% loss. So, if I were 100% Telecom stock, I would have lost 100% of my portfolio instead of 50%.

But, the point is relevant anyhow. Many of the 100% stock folks have a significant amount of their money in the individual FAANG stocks.

KlangFool
Whoops, I got confused because here you said you were 100% individual Telecom stock:
viewtopic.php?t=229259
But you meant Telecom companies in general perhaps.

The problem with the folks you described is not that they're 100% stocks; it's that they have concentrated bets. They might also happen to have no bonds, but that's not where their problem lies
305pelusa,

<<I was 100/0 with individual Telecom stock during Telecom Boom and Bust.>>

Sorry for the confusion. My AA was 100/0. Aka 100% stock. Some were in S&P 500 index and some in individual Telecom stock.

<<The problem with the folks you described is not that they're 100% stocks; it's that they have concentrated bets. They might also happen to have no bonds, but that's not where their problem lies>>

I disagreed. Depending on the portfolio size, with 100% stock and zero emergency fund, it won't take much short-term unemployment for someone to lose their houses and be homeless.

KlangFool
It's fine if you believe that. My point is merely that your personal story is not a representative example at all of that scenario.
You might find that his experiences are almost always the defacto way everything happens.

CoastalWinds
Posts: 279
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CoastalWinds » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm

I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?

Silk McCue
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silk McCue » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:48 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
Yes. These threads exist solely to support these issues and have been approved by the moderators of this site for such use for quite some time. They are unique in that way on purpose. If you have a concern PM a moderator.

Cheers

KlangFool
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KlangFool » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:54 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
CoastalWinds,

It is an emotional support thread to stop folks from overreacting. Ditto for the free-fall one.

KlangFool

finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:38 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:26 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:21 am

There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; certainly households' standard of living can go up without any change in real wages. In fact, they fell from the levels of 1979 and didn't reach them again until 1999, twenty years later. Yet during most of that time, U.S. stocks experienced one of the greatest bull markets ever.
willthrill81,

<<There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; >>

Correct. But, if the job market is as good as the unemployment rate implied, the real wages should grow a lot faster and bigger. That is my point. The numbers do not add up.

KlangFool
Yes I think the slow wage growth has economists scratching their heads. Could be lag/inertia, an issue with a parameter (UER), or the model itself (perhaps need to add other parameters/relationships). Some sectors and/or positions (executive/white collar) do have solid wage growth, so could also have something to do with where the wage growth is occurring.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:02 pm

finite_difference wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:38 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:26 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:21 am

There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; certainly households' standard of living can go up without any change in real wages. In fact, they fell from the levels of 1979 and didn't reach them again until 1999, twenty years later. Yet during most of that time, U.S. stocks experienced one of the greatest bull markets ever.
willthrill81,

<<There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; >>

Correct. But, if the job market is as good as the unemployment rate implied, the real wages should grow a lot faster and bigger. That is my point. The numbers do not add up.

KlangFool
Yes I think the slow wage growth has economists scratching their heads. Could be lag/inertia, an issue with a parameter (UER), or the model itself (perhaps need to add other parameters/relationships). Some sectors and/or positions (executive/white collar) do have solid wage growth, so could also have something to do with where the wage growth is occurring.
If wage growth truly is slow, another possibility is simply that the job market is at an equilibrium point right now, with the number of workers for the positions available to be about equal.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas » Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:13 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:54 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
CoastalWinds,

It is an emotional support thread to stop folks from overreacting. Ditto for the free-fall one.

KlangFool
And I, for one, am glad of it. I’ve needed the emotional support from time to time!

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CoastalWinds » Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:03 am

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:54 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
CoastalWinds,

It is an emotional support thread to stop folks from overreacting. Ditto for the free-fall one.

KlangFool
Then don’t they offset each other? 😁

TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TropikThunder » Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:05 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:03 am
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:54 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
CoastalWinds,

It is an emotional support thread to stop folks from overreacting. Ditto for the free-fall one.

KlangFool
Then don’t they offset each other? 😁
What would your solution be?

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:55 am

TropikThunder wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:05 am
What would your solution be?
Sell everything, buy gold, and head for the hills. :confused

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:53 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:03 am
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:54 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
CoastalWinds,

It is an emotional support thread to stop folks from overreacting. Ditto for the free-fall one.

KlangFool
Then don’t they offset each other? 😁
When that happens you can ponder this thread started by TheTimeLord:

viewtopic.php?t=232977

LOL

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:43 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
Yes you are. Buy and hold VTI.
DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:41 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:01 pm
As my investments compound and my gains soar I can't believe this is legal. I keep expecting Homeland Security to kick down my door and size my computer. People get ten to twenty stealing much less on Main Street. Wall Street is the place to steal and be looked up to for doing it. :greedy

There may be something to this Boglehead stuff.
This will last forever too. I'm 100% certain. NO doubt about it.

The market will never decline again, ever. Seriously. It's different this time. Soon we will all be billionaires.
Recently I was down in February, March, September, October and December of 2018; and again in May 2019. I bought more VTI, those shares pay a higher percent dividend than the shares I bought this month.

I won't make a billion dollars because I got too soon old and too late smart.

finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:10 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:02 pm
finite_difference wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:38 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:26 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:21 am

There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; certainly households' standard of living can go up without any change in real wages. In fact, they fell from the levels of 1979 and didn't reach them again until 1999, twenty years later. Yet during most of that time, U.S. stocks experienced one of the greatest bull markets ever.
willthrill81,

<<There's nothing that says that inflation-adjusted wages have to grow at all; >>

Correct. But, if the job market is as good as the unemployment rate implied, the real wages should grow a lot faster and bigger. That is my point. The numbers do not add up.

KlangFool
Yes I think the slow wage growth has economists scratching their heads. Could be lag/inertia, an issue with a parameter (UER), or the model itself (perhaps need to add other parameters/relationships). Some sectors and/or positions (executive/white collar) do have solid wage growth, so could also have something to do with where the wage growth is occurring.
If wage growth truly is slow, another possibility is simply that the job market is at an equilibrium point right now, with the number of workers for the positions available to be about equal.
Yes, I think that’s a good point. Maybe we are at some kind of rough equilibrium (although jobs still being gained, it’s been in much fewer numbers recently so the UER isn’t really changing.)
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:33 pm

S&P closed at 3,005 today.

Any close above 3,000 is “soaring”.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:48 pm

Stinky wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:33 pm
S&P closed at 3,005 today.

Any close above 3,000 is “soaring”.
This is nice. 3005. I remember 2000....not too long ago.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:16 pm

S&P at 3016. Within one point of its intraday record high.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon_investor » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:48 pm

Not worrying about what the market is doing... as I do near the end of every month, with all my monthly bills now paid, investing all the leftover money...

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:15 pm

Stinky wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:16 pm
S&P at 3016. Within one point of its intraday record high.
Closed at 3019.56. Another record high. Ho hum.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:28 pm

Soaring higher and higher!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzDVaKRApcg
oldzey wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:59 pm
Soar high in July, U.S. stocks!

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:49 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
They are not actionable, but the history of the Bogleheads site is interesting in each one.

The free-fall one especially is living proof that it's hard to predict the future.
The J stands for Jay

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:02 pm

Discussions in his forum can be of a general nature (related to you as an investor). See: Investing - Theory, News & General
If it's investment related and it doesn't fall into the above category it goes here. Examples of acceptable topics include news about new fund offerings, pointers to academic papers about investing issues, questions about the proper role of a particular asset class in a portfolio, or questions about Vanguard policies.
If there are any questions, feel free to PM me.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:10 pm

I'll bet that some feel that the current market is a 'melt-up'.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by flyingaway » Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:21 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:49 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:23 pm
I’m not understanding how this post/thread is actionable. Same with the free fall one. Am I missing something?
They are not actionable, but the history of the Bogleheads site is interesting in each one.

The free-fall one especially is living proof that it's hard to predict the future.
It is a good place to see how some people feel about the market, which could be used to do some market timing actions.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:33 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:49 pm
The free-fall one especially is living proof that it's hard to predict the future.
I have studied the situation and listen to those who know; VIT will out perform every other security in the future.

I am field testing this theory now; I set up Roth IRAs for my children in 2016. Using Vanguard target 2050 (VFIFX) as the benchmark with an initial investment frozen except for reinvested dividends. The rest is all stock, 90% US (VTI) and 10% foreign (VXUS), dividends reinvested with rebalancing.

A of June 30, 2019 my returns, total for the account annualized, are 11.3%.
The returns breakdown are;
VXUS 6.6%
VFIFX 10.4%
VTI 13.3%.

Foreign stocks are a big drag, why VFIFX has foreign bonds is beyond my understanding.

firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:02 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:10 pm
I'll bet that some feel that the current market is a 'melt-up'.
The thought crossed my mind.

I was in the Fido account yesterday looking at funds, and I thought "I will look for a Fido mid cap index fund" and so when I looked at the assets in this fund over the last few years, I was thinking "well this explains the run up in mid caps".

I was trying to show my wife something about a hedge fund that went out of business, and I never did find it by google. Too many of them went out of business to find the one I wanted to show her.

StandingRock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by StandingRock » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:06 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:01 pm
dogagility wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:28 pm
I really do like making money while on vacation. Go baby, go!
As my investments compound and my gains soar I can't believe this is legal. I keep expecting Homeland Security to kick down my door and size my computer. People get ten to twenty stealing much less on Main Street. Wall Street is the place to steal and be looked up to for doing it. :greedy

There may be something to this Boglehead stuff.
Stealing has to be WAY easier than working for 20 or 30 years and investing surplus earnings.

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Bluce
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Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:16 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:01 pm
dogagility wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:28 pm
I really do like making money while on vacation. Go baby, go!
As my investments compound and my gains soar I can't believe this is legal. I keep expecting Homeland Security to kick down my door and size my computer. People get ten to twenty stealing much less on Main Street. Wall Street is the place to steal and be looked up to for doing it. :greedy

There may be something to this Boglehead stuff.
Maybe it's the "Einstein stuff:" Compound interest is the greatest mathematical discovery of all time.

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J G Bankerton
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Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:14 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:16 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:01 pm
dogagility wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:28 pm
I really do like making money while on vacation. Go baby, go!
As my investments compound and my gains soar I can't believe this is legal. I keep expecting Homeland Security to kick down my door and size my computer. People get ten to twenty stealing much less on Main Street. Wall Street is the place to steal and be looked up to for doing it. :greedy

There may be something to this Boglehead stuff.
Maybe it's the "Einstein stuff:" Compound interest is the greatest mathematical discovery of all time.
I have been thinking about weather Einstein actually said that. I doubt it as Einstein didn't concern himself with pedestrian middle school math. He did comment on spooky action at a distance though.

To get the full benefit of compounding one must stay 100% VTI even when it may not be prudent to do so. :shock:

DaftInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DaftInvestor » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:12 am

I love the smell of rising stocks in the morning!

Nasdaq leading today's charge.

invstar
Posts: 119
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by invstar » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm

Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?

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willthrill81
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Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
If you know we can't predict anything, why would 'signs' matter? The market has been fairly consistently hitting new highs for years now.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon_investor » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:11 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
You can't time the market!

Livelife2fullest
Posts: 10
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Livelife2fullest » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:18 pm

Most folks trying to time the market most likely sold or rebalanced quite a while back. Good reminder to stay the course, the market is too unpredictable.

invstar
Posts: 119
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by invstar » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:20 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
If you know we can't predict anything, why would 'signs' matter? The market has been fairly consistently hitting new highs for years now.
Yeah, I need this money for an investment (from 3 to 6 months from now). I am ready to take little risk but just checking to see if it makes sense to cash it now.

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willthrill81
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Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:21 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
If you know we can't predict anything, why would 'signs' matter? The market has been fairly consistently hitting new highs for years now.
Yeah, I need this money for an investment (from 3 to 6 months from now). I am ready to take little risk but just checking to see if it makes sense to cash it now.
If you need the funds in a matter of months, then why aren't you in cash or cash equivalents? Stocks could take a big tumble in 3-6 months.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

invstar
Posts: 119
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by invstar » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:24 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:21 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
If you know we can't predict anything, why would 'signs' matter? The market has been fairly consistently hitting new highs for years now.
Yeah, I need this money for an investment (from 3 to 6 months from now). I am ready to take little risk but just checking to see if it makes sense to cash it now.
If you need the funds in a matter of months, then why aren't you in cash or cash equivalents? Stocks could take a big tumble in 3-6 months.
Thanks. That's what I have been thinking..

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oldzey
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Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:02 pm

Another record high for the S&P 500!

Have a great weekend! :beer

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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J G Bankerton
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Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:04 pm

Earnings driven rally, buy and hold VTI. :greedy

Trader Joe
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Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:23 pm

The U.S. S&P 500 had another record close of 3,025.84. Beautiful.

rascott
Posts: 485
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:29 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:04 pm
Earnings driven rally, buy and hold VTI. :greedy
100% equities
100% of the time
100% of my life

Sakura
Posts: 18
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:55 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Sakura » Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:36 pm

Fitting end to the week. Ironically I closed mine by adding some international stocks but satisfying to watch the rest of the portfolio climb.

It's amusing to watch the daily recession mongering from the pundits.

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HomerJ
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Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:20 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:21 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 pm
invstar wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:08 pm
Today it has been going great. Do you think it's a good idea to sell today and encash my VTSAX in taxable? I know we can't predict anything but are there any signs on new records or the market going down?
If you know we can't predict anything, why would 'signs' matter? The market has been fairly consistently hitting new highs for years now.
Yeah, I need this money for an investment (from 3 to 6 months from now). I am ready to take little risk but just checking to see if it makes sense to cash it now.
If you need the funds in a matter of months, then why aren't you in cash or cash equivalents? Stocks could take a big tumble in 3-6 months.
Thanks. That's what I have been thinking..
That was true 3 months ago as well.

Read more of this site. You CANNOT time the market.. Money you need in the short-term should not be in the market.
The J stands for Jay

grettman
Posts: 427
Joined: Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:47 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grettman » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:21 pm

rascott wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:29 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:04 pm
Earnings driven rally, buy and hold VTI. :greedy
100% equities
100% of the time
100% of my life
90% for me... since the mid-nineties.

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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:33 pm

rascott wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:29 pm
100% equities
100% of the time
100% of my life
With every new market high, I'm ever more grateful that I'm not in broad public equities. The higher they go, the harder they fall!

Permabears, unite! :sharebeer
“Life doesn’t come with a warranty.” -Michael LeBoeuf

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AnalogKid22
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Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:48 pm

Kevin O”Leary predicts the bull will run for another two years.
https://youtu.be/uran2Ev4I34

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