U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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cos
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cos »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:22 pm
Nicolas wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:19 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:35 pm Just out of curiosity, why is market dropping today?
No one knows. We've seen the same pattern most of the week - open in the green, then a sharp drop mid-morning.
Could it be fear of a repeat of 9/11 tomorrow? Or is it just that time of year? Or none of the above.
Not sure why but lost 50k + this week☹️
I have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Beensabu wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:58 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:22 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:45 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:10 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:06 pm

Bonds are so out, didn't you know?
Maaaaaaaan. I never get to be one of the cool kids.
Me neither. I hold all the underperformers like international and bonds. What a loser!
I hold Extended Market, and it did even worse than international and bonds today.
Do you believe in the diversifying attributes of your poor forsaken asset class? I might have have a spare drumstick lying around here.
I only own it to pair with the S&P 500 holdings I acquired during tax loss harvesting in March 2020 when I sold a bunch of Total Stock. The truth is, however, that I have always owned Extended Market without seeing it, because Total Stock has always been my primary fund, and Extended Market is part of Total Stock.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:39 pm So just keep calm and dca?
Keep calm but I would not listen to someone who says this market is an opportunity to buy on the cheap.This market is not cheap by any means.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:28 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:39 pm So just keep calm and dca?
Keep calm but I would not listen to someone who says this market is an opportunity to buy on the cheap.This market is not cheap by any means.
Err, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:34 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:28 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:39 pm So just keep calm and dca?
Keep calm but I would not listen to someone who says this market is an opportunity to buy on the cheap.This market is not cheap by any means.
Err, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
Sure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:54 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
Sure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.
:sharebeer
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:34 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:28 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:39 pm So just keep calm and dca?
Keep calm but I would not listen to someone who says this market is an opportunity to buy on the cheap.This market is not cheap by any means.
Err, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general. Secondly, the market is forward looking, it's saying it believes earnings and/or inflation is going to be higher in the future. If this prediction ends up being wrong, the market will eventually correct accordingly. So far, the market has not been wrong: it was as high as 40 in December 2020, and dropped to just 30 by March, we now sit around 35. Given the ATHs, this obviously means earnings grew per the market's forward looking predictions.

Honestly, just last year investors had their chance to buy sub-20 PE stocks, most investors either got greedy or scared and couldn't pull the trigger (I'll bet most couldn't even bring themselves to rebalance [!!!] per their IPS). The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them, so it's a nice fairytale to tell yourself how you'd take advantage of low PEs... but for most it's just that -- a fairytale. Low PEs happen when the world feels like it's going to collapse, look in the mirror and ask yourself if that's an environment you are willing to bet your nest egg in -- or even sell a dime worth of bonds to buy equities? Instead, I'd recommend being thankful for the existing investing/economic conditions and stick with your AA + DCA'ing.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:54 pm
hoops777 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
Sure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.
If one is 30/70 and desired AA is 60/40, they wouldn't slowly move money. They'd get to 60/40 immediately.

What you're referring to is someone who is 30/70 but doesn't want to be at 60/40 for some period of time for some unknown reason.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351

The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump

In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by newyorker »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351

The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump

In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
How accurate is your prediction?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
So September is "draft season" for corporate bonds? You learn something new every day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pm How accurate is your prediction?
It's hard to tell if you're really worried about DCA or just joking around. As I mentioned several times, a crash is actually good for the DCA camp.

If you are *really* concerned, then maybe whatever AA you have currently is the maximum risk you should be taking, and that you might want to hold the allocation.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:36 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pm How accurate is your prediction?
It's hard to tell if you're really worried about DCA or just joking around. As I mentioned several times, a crash is actually good for the DCA camp.

If you are *really* concerned, then maybe whatever AA you have currently is the maximum risk you should be taking, and that you might want to hold the allocation.
A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.

I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.

I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?

For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.

A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Since most are talking crash including this thread, the opposite will happen.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:56 pm A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.

I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.

I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?

For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.

A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
You and I are on the same page.

I was a bit concerned because the poster newyorker has posted repeatedly how they worry about a crash. I don't know their AA but if they are so concerned then perhaps it's time to hold steady and stop DCAing. Personal finance is personal.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:02 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:56 pm A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.

I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.

I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?

For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.

A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
You and I are on the same page.

I was a bit concerned because the poster newyorker has posted repeatedly how they worry about a crash. I don't know their AA but if they are so concerned then perhaps it's time to hold steady and stop DCAing. Personal finance is personal.
Agreed. I'd recommend a permanent AA change to something more conservative.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

newyorker wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351

The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump

In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
How accurate is your prediction?
No one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.

A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Forester just needed to renew the "Forester affect."

The opposite happens most of the time...
Last edited by lostdog on Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:43 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351

The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump

In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
How accurate is your prediction?
No one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.

A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
Accurate? haha... has he ever been right? And he broke a promise to not post on the Freefall thread if his prediction did not pan out.

My prediction is he will continue to make useless predictions and some day will get lucky and get one right (the proverbial broken clock). It's inevitable.
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:57 pm
Forester wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:45 pm
000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:33 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

*LOL*
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:43 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351

The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump

In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
How accurate is your prediction?
No one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.

A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
Forester's links are always fabulous, though. I always learn something new and interesting that has absolutely nothing to do with whatever the newest prediction is. It's great.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:39 pm So just keep calm and dca?
Yes. Continue to build personal wealth and use your brokerage account as a savings account to build (what Bob Brinker called) critical mass so that ups/downs (noise) matter very little. For instance, I hold VTSAX in a taxable fund and use as a savings account as needed. It just so happens that I really have had no reason to spend any funds from it.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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mrspock wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
The article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".

While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2 times past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2 times past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).

One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
The article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".

While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2x past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2x past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).

One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.
Perhaps you have forgotten what was going on 30 years ago, but let me help: Gulf War I, the deficit tripled, a deep recession in 1991 followed by a very slow recovery. It was also very in vogue to be an international investor back then — particularly in Japan and many people lost a lot of money once the entire house of cards collapsed (PEs reaching 90 or so at the peak in the late 80s).

Waiting some 30 years to put money in the market also doesn’t seem like a very workable plan.

My point stands: Most investors don’t have the mental discipline to invest during these periods. Some can barely bring themselves to invest during relatively calm periods such as now (telling themselves other suitable fairytales).
Last edited by mrspock on Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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mrspock wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm My point stands: Most investors don’t have the mental discipline to invest during these periods.
You seem to be correct. "Cheap PEs" exist in today's environment, just as they have in every environment. But most people prefer to overpay to some extent, just as they always have. Because if it's cheap, "it's cheap for a reason".
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

mrspock wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:35 pm
mrspock wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
The article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".

While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2x past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2x past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).

One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.
Perhaps you have forgotten what was going on 30 years ago, but let me help: Gulf War I, the deficit tripled, a deep recession in 1991 followed by a very slow recovery,.
No. I didn't forget anything. The above is all just business as usual.
Waiting some 30 years to put money in the market also doesn’t seem like a very workable plan.
Nobody suggested doing that.
My point stands: Most investors don’t have the mental discipline to invest during these periods.
I take it you're talking about people who aren't on this forum.

My point stands: the article you cited doesn't add any significant insights into whether the market is expensive or cheap. It's just another writer wanting to show how this time is different in some way or another.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

mrspock wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm It was also very in vogue to be an international investor back then — particularly in Japan and many people lost a lot of money once the entire house of cards collapsed (PEs reaching 90 or so at the peak in the late 80s).
The Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo at the peak were worth more than the entire State of California. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-pal ... alifornia/
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Nicolas wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:10 pm
mrspock wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm It was also very in vogue to be an international investor back then — particularly in Japan and many people lost a lot of money once the entire house of cards collapsed (PEs reaching 90 or so at the peak in the late 80s).
The Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo at the peak were worth more than the entire State of California. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-pal ... alifornia/
FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
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HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:20 pm FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:19 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:20 pm FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
What is FAAMG? :confused
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:31 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:19 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:20 pm FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
What is FAAMG? :confused
It was FANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG+M (or FANMAG, I suppose) :arrow: Now it is FAAMG
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

Deleted
Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

Or maybe replace Netflix with Nvidia so it remains as is.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:44 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:31 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:19 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:20 pm FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
What is FAAMG? :confused
It was FANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG+M (or FANMAG, I suppose) :arrow: Now it is FAAMG
Now I’m five times as confused. :confused :confused :confused :confused :confused

Names please?
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Valuethinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Valuethinker »

Stinky wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:16 am
Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:44 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:31 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:19 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:20 pm FANMAG is probably approaching that now.
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
What is FAAMG? :confused
It was FANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG :arrow: Then it was FAANG+M (or FANMAG, I suppose) :arrow: Now it is FAAMG
Now I’m five times as confused. :confused :confused :confused :confused :confused

Names please?
Try Googling FAANGs.

And yes, that's a recursive joke ;-).
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

I'm seeing green so far.

Will this hold or taper down? We will see.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

looking good to start the week :beer


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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

cos wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:59 am
Jimsad wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:22 pm
Nicolas wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:19 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:35 pm Just out of curiosity, why is market dropping today?
No one knows. We've seen the same pattern most of the week - open in the green, then a sharp drop mid-morning.
Could it be fear of a repeat of 9/11 tomorrow? Or is it just that time of year? Or none of the above.
Not sure why but lost 50k + this week☹️
I have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
Whatever it is, it must be serious to explain this 1.15% decline from all time highs.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
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z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
I believe that secular bull ended in 2000 with 13 years of sideways market performance. How can a secular bull have over a decade of sideways in it and still be a bull? If the current secular bull is like the prior, we should expect a good 18 years or so, which would mean running until 2030 or so which is what I expect given record low interest rates and other government action. SP 500 over 6,000 by 2030 is my prediction, upwards of 10,000 wouldn't shock me.
Last edited by z3r0c00l on Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Another crazy tapering day, opened +0.75% and already +0.3% after 15 minutes.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 am
cos wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:59 am
Jimsad wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:22 pm
Nicolas wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:19 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:42 pm

No one knows. We've seen the same pattern most of the week - open in the green, then a sharp drop mid-morning.
Could it be fear of a repeat of 9/11 tomorrow? Or is it just that time of year? Or none of the above.
Not sure why but lost 50k + this week☹️
I have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
Whatever it is, it must be serious to explain this 1.15% decline from all time highs.
I think people are spoiled and forget that most years have at least a 5% pullback and the average is 14%, I believe.

We haven't had a 5% or greater pullback in 2021. This is only the third year since 1995 that we haven't.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Taper in progress...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:02 am Taper in progress...
What is up with NASDAQ??
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:02 am Taper in progress...
Taper is picking up speed.

Maybe the new mantra is "sell at the open, buy at the close". :twisted:
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Stinky wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:13 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:02 am Taper in progress...
Taper is picking up speed.

Maybe the new mantra is "sell at the open, buy at the close". :twisted:
This is actually known for quite some time. Gap up intraday down is quite common: https://justinczyszczewski.com/are-most ... overnight/

The problem is we don't know why this is happening and if the trend continues.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Fear not! Hidden in this prescient vision of the coming Thunderdome is a hidden gem.
We are going to 4,700 VERY SOON!!!!
SOAR ye eagles, SOAR!
Forester wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:12 pm A glimpse into the future? My hypothetical S&P 500 price chart.

Image
:oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Too optimistic in my opinion. Hard to see us going to -60% without dropping further (at least temporarily) to -80%+ due to panic selling and margin calls.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:55 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Too optimistic in my opinion. Hard to see us going to -60% without dropping further (at least temporarily) to -80%+ due to panic selling and margin calls.
Classic permabear psychology. They never take advantage of the opportunity because they are worried about another little 20% drop.
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