U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

bgf wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:43 am
firebirdparts wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:25 am Looks like gold decided to soar when everything else soured.
Everything else? Look at Treasuries. Everyone screaming about inflation but there doesn't seem to be any upward pressure on yields.
"U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday morning, amid investor concerns around the omicron variant and the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially taper faster than expected.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed 3.9 basis points to 1.48% at 8:20 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added 3.3 basis points to 1.819%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-AARkINc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:10 am
bgf wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:43 am
firebirdparts wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:25 am Looks like gold decided to soar when everything else soured.
Everything else? Look at Treasuries. Everyone screaming about inflation but there doesn't seem to be any upward pressure on yields.
"U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday morning, amid investor concerns around the omicron variant and the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially taper faster than expected.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed 3.9 basis points to 1.48% at 8:20 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added 3.3 basis points to 1.819%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-AARkINc
I was watching TMF which was up over 4% when I posted. But yea, 3 basis points. Yuge.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

I won't call the taper too early.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

virus or not there seem to be plenty of buyers supporting this market.. I thought there would be more weakness given the news but apparently not
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:47 am virus or not there seem to be plenty of buyers supporting this market.. I thought there would be more weakness given the news but apparently not
Right. When will the bears throw in the towel? :twisted: :P
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

It took a day for my cyber Monday shopping to impact the markets.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by yog »

anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:06 am It took a day for my cyber Monday shopping to impact the markets.
AAPL just hit 170 - thank you!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Do I smell a taper coming?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

You know how when you play Tetris, and a piece fits into a hole perfectly and takes few rows out, it feels really nice. That's how it felt when I saw my 401(k) contribution posting at yesterday's close price. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Hyperchicken wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:56 am You know how when you play Tetris, and a piece fits into a hole perfectly and takes few rows out, it feels really nice. That's how it felt when I saw my 401(k) contribution posting at yesterday's close price. :D
To me it feels like the advanced stages of a tetris game where the pieces are starting to fall faster than I can place them and the only consolation is that the score is quite high and I don't care if the game ends.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GP813 »

Hyperchicken wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:56 am You know how when you play Tetris, and a piece fits into a hole perfectly and takes few rows out, it feels really nice. That's how it felt when I saw my 401(k) contribution posting at yesterday's close price. :D
With a long enough time frame all your 401k contributions will look like the right moves.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Very slow leak tapering going on. The bears are fighting back.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

party over
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

wow. what do we do?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:20 pm wow. what do we do?
VTSAX and chill.
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Post by lostdog »

Back to the free fall thread we go. So much volatility.
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rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Wow, what a lovely day it started out to be. :x
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Crushtheturtle »

rchmx1 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:02 pm Wow, what a lovely day it started out to be. :x
It was a lovely start. It started great. What a great start that was.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:46 am Holy moneybags, Batman! :moneybag :moneybag

The bell rang and the Curly Family Portfolio opened at an all-time high. Wasn't expecting that at all. Might need a bigger screen just to open the electronic brokerage statements. :mrgreen:
You jinxed it. :annoyed :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:44 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:39 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:13 pm They do provide a preview of the signal on the day prior. And interestingly, I have seen the preview signal flip based on the last day's trading result.
It's not hard to plot 200d MA. You can DIY.
Can this end up causing more whipsaws than a once-a-month signal?
Sure, more whipsaws, but likely smaller ones.

If the market continues to crash tomorrow, crosses the line, and continues down for the entire month, you could lose 5%-10% or more before actually getting out, and then what if it turns around on January 2nd? You might not get back in until February 1st, and what if it's gone UP 5%-10% in THAT month?

So just checking once a month opens a chance of a very large whipsaw loss, one that you can't get back.

So far, just buying and holding down through a crash and back up again, you make all your money back. Not so with whipsaws.

Of course, when the 200 MA system works, during a big crash, you should make more than the buy and hold person... Usually not enough to make up for all the whipsaws, but you should make up for most of them. At least that is the theory.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:50 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:46 am Holy moneybags, Batman! :moneybag :moneybag

The bell rang and the Curly Family Portfolio opened at an all-time high. Wasn't expecting that at all. Might need a bigger screen just to open the electronic brokerage statements. :mrgreen:
You jinxed it. :annoyed :oops:
I think it's because today is lostdog's day off from the gym.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I moved a discussion regarding anoop's move to a 200-day moving average portfolio into a new thread. See: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Omicron seems mild so I am starting to think this is mostly a reaction to Powell's comments. The Fed needs to do its job at some point and them falling behind the inflation curve would be far worse imo. Buying this dip as new cash comes in.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Like a gift from the sky. If Mr. Market would be kind enough to go down another 5% or so it wipes out my entire capital gains tax bill for 2021.

The only thing better than making money in the stock market is not having to pay any income taxes on capital gains… yay!

You see, the paper portfolio losses are temporary… probably recover in months. The tax bill? Well that money is gone forever.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Wow! Just looking at markets. While one day does not make a pattern, US dropped more than international. REITs even more. How was technology?

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

IShares IGM Extended Technology and Vanguard Technology VGT have pulled back from 52 week high.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

My 70/30 portfolio is down 4% since November 8, the most significant decline of this calendar year so far.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by newyorker »

Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:46 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.

I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?

Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by huzaing »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:36 pm Omicron seems mild
US confirmed first case today ...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by newyorker »

000 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:53 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:46 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.

I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?

Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.

Thats a good question
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by smalliebigs »

huzaing wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:02 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:36 pm Omicron seems mild
US confirmed first case today ...
Confirmed, but it could have been here far longer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:53 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:46 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.

I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?

Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.
Of course. That's like asking if you don't rebalance your AA after hitting your rebalancing band.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by newyorker »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:11 pm
000 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:53 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:46 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.

I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?

Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.
Of course. That's like asking if you don't rebalance your AA after hitting your rebalancing band.
Hows your DCA going? My dca friend? 😝
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by huzaing »

smalliebigs wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:09 pm
huzaing wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:02 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:36 pm Omicron seems mild
US confirmed first case today ...
Confirmed, but it could have been here far longer
Agree, certainly possible. But what's the implication? Is your point that Omicron is likely to turn out not as bad?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by smalliebigs »

huzaing wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:58 pm Agree, certainly possible. But what's the implication? Is your point that Omicron is likely to turn out not as bad?
In my expert opinion, my point is, I think thin french fries are better than pump ones. Onion rings are better than fries, but only for short spurts and in the mood. They are far too oily in general.



(I defer to the CDC's guidelines for C19 advice.)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FlatSix »

canadianbacon wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:31 am The market moves, people make up the reason after. Same as it ever was.
Absolutely love this quote.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:45 pm Hows your DCA going? My dca friend? 😝
I like it, the price going down actually helps lower the cost basis. Eventually the stocks have to soar though.
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Post by Jaymover »

Catch 22 see. Omicron bad, economy bad. Omicron okay, fed tapers bad.

This may be the beginning of the expected correction. Damned if I can pick the bottom though.... :confused
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Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:38 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:45 pm Hows your DCA going? My dca friend? 😝
I like it, the price going down actually helps lower the cost basis. Eventually the stocks have to soar though.
Have you guys ever calculated how much money you have missed out on by sitting a portion of your money out of the market. If you have a target asset allocation you would like to get to when all this DCA is done, why not just invest at that AA now? If you are not comfortable at that AA, then what will you do when you get all the "dry powder" deployed? Will you pull a bunch of it out and start DCA all over again? If not, why not, what will be different then?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:50 pm Have you guys ever calculated how much money you have missed out on by sitting a portion of your money out of the market. If you have a target asset allocation you would like to get to when all this DCA is done, why not just invest at that AA now? If you are not comfortable at that AA, then what will you do when you get all the "dry powder" deployed? Will you pull a bunch of it out and start DCA all over again? If not, why not, what will be different then?
I don't believe it is possible to calculate until DCA completes. I've read some Vanguard study that said LS won by 2.3% over a 10-year period for 60/40; not a bad tradeoff to have some insurance marker imo. I don't want to turn this into a DCA vs LS thread though, so this would be my last response on this matter.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by huzaing »

smalliebigs wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:02 pm
huzaing wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:58 pm Agree, certainly possible. But what's the implication? Is your point that Omicron is likely to turn out not as bad?
In my expert opinion, my point is, I think thin french fries are better than pump ones. Onion rings are better than fries, but only for short spurts and in the mood. They are far too oily in general.



(I defer to the CDC's guidelines for C19 advice.)
Bad as in for the economy/markets lol :oops:
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Post by smalliebigs »

Man, I don't know. I'm just a simple man saving simply.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by huzaing »

smalliebigs wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:07 pm Man, I don't know. I'm just a simple man saving simply.
We'll find out eventually either way. Let's see ...
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Post by telemark »

000 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:53 pm Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.

I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?

Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.
If you mean DCA as opposed to investing a lump sum, the whole point of doing that is the possibility that the market might drop, so anyone currently doing that can now yell "I was right!"* and take a victory lap. If you're doing that and the market just keeps going up, you would have been better off investing the money as a lump sum. If you mean regular investing out of a pay check, back when I was working I never had a problem doing that (I had a regular income anyway) and it always worked out nicely.

What do you propose, to wait for the market to go back up and then buy?

* or at least sort of right, less wrong than previously.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

SPX should make a final rally to 5,250 in early 2022, we may have already experienced the customary Q4 jitters. Provisionally I estimate SPX ends 2021 @4,800 and perhaps 4,200 at the end of 2022 (real 15% loss after inflation).
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Post by bugleheadd »

s&p5000 here we go
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Anybody else get bored when the market is down from all time highs, but not really far down?

I can get excited when we're at all-time highs. The high numbers on my spreadsheet give me a tingle.

I can get excited when the market is down 20%+. Cheaper stocks with new money, maybe a rebalance.

But this sideways, down a little, up a little crap, while a huge part of what the market does, is really boring.

Talk to me when the S&P 500 is at 3,800 or 4,800.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:24 pm Anybody else get bored when the market is down from all time highs, but not really far down?

I can get excited when we're at all-time highs. The high numbers on my spreadsheet give me a tingle.

I can get excited when the market is down 20%+. Cheaper stocks with new money, maybe a rebalance.

But this sideways, down a little, up a little crap, while a huge part of what the market does, is really boring.

Talk to me when the S&P 500 is at 3,800 or 4,800.
Yep, beginning of the month... I should update my spreadsheet, but not really interested.

Maybe to see how my ibonds are doing.
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