U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Hopefully this is just the beginning of our journey to the moon :D
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by EnjoyIt »

atdharris wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:32 am Hopefully this is just the beginning of our journey to the moon :D
I hate to the moon. It makes me think of irrational exuberance. That means bubbles popping. I would rather keep climbing that wall of worry. With slow increases followed by quick drops to keep the worry alive. Last 2 weeks were perfect.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Always nice to see Mr Market in such a good mood. :happy
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:02 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:32 am Hopefully this is just the beginning of our journey to the moon :D
I hate to the moon. It makes me think of irrational exuberance. That means bubbles popping. I would rather keep climbing that wall of worry. With slow increases followed by quick drops to keep the worry alive. Last 2 weeks were perfect.
Yes recent taper down was welcomed because of all the bubble talk. Market being ratiinal and catious is good.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

rchmx1 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:13 pm Always nice to see Mr Market in such a good mood. :happy
because there was way too much pessimism. The virus situation is now petering out, there is no news of any variants and people may be realizing that we are moving out of the bad times and not into them. Just my $0.02.
bog007
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bog007 »

get it thru the 50 day. rah rah
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gonefishing01 »

Out of the basement. Elevator, top floor please. :sharebeer
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
I think he's just being snarky. And I like it!
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
I thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:04 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
I thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?
He's a really good one. And they haven't told him yet. So, shhhh
tsohg
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tsohg »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
:mrgreen: I appreciate this.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

We don't need more dumb posts.... oh wait... never mind... Forgot what thread I was in.
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nzahir
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nzahir »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:54 pm
nzahir wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:49 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:10 pm Tapering coming this year: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 002296.cms

They kind of have to, since they can't hike before they're done tapering.
Why can't they start the taper this Nov or Dec (should end around half way in 2022) and do rate hikes in early 2022?
I am not sure if there are technical reasons why they can't. I would certainly love to see tapering and hiking at the same time, but the markets probably won't like that.
I also don't like paying much higher prices with inflation blasting higher

And that doesn't even take into fact that housing in unaffordable now in places like LA, NY, and other big cities

It is crazy how the market is really just built on incredibly relaxed monetary policy

Fed needs to bring rates up to normal levels to reverse the damage they have done to fixed income and to people who don't just own a lot of assets
bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

i have only looked at the financial markets twice since oct 3. last friday at the close and just now. seems like stocks is going up both times i looked. what happened to the whole China evergrande and global supply chain shipping delays collapsing the markets???
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

bugleheadd wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:35 pm i have only looked at the financial markets twice since oct 3. last friday at the close and just now. seems like stocks is going up both times i looked. what happened to the whole China evergrande and global supply chain shipping delays collapsing the markets???
Banks made money.
Shocking! I know.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:18 pm We don't need more dumb posts.... oh wait... never mind... Forgot what thread I was in.
We absolutely do!

...And I'm back to ATH (that includes contributions and a couple of car loan payments, but I don't care). Hopefully this means we're back to our regularly programmed soaring? Or at least on our way? :sharebeer
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iceport
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by iceport »

All GREEN again today... every single fund/account I own.

Checking account, savings account, short-term bonds, mid-term bonds, TIPS, US equities, international equities, REITs — everything!

Is that good or bad? :greedy
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

HanSolo wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:12 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:05 pm I need some more soaring.

...

Come on. Let's soar some more tomorrow.
You're selling shares tomorrow?
I like soaring.
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

It's funny that banks doing well wasn't already priced in. It sure isn't a surprise.

Evergrande (anyone else want to say everclear?) is going to be a long rolling crisis, and it's not clear how substantial it will be in the end. Right now I'm thinking it will be like the S&L crisis decades ago - big but really just a speed bump. We'll see. As for logistics supply chains, that's not going away as an issue, but the supply chains are adapting somewhat to avoid the truly disastrous breakdown scenarios. Again, we'll see.

I'm rooting for the markets to double over the next 5 years. We'll see.
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:04 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
I thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?
Does not compute.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

One might even say we've broken out of the downward trend and are heading back to 4500+. Or not. But maybe. And like, we could even stay there for a whole week when we get there. Or go higher. Positivity! Rah rah, go team!
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Beensabu wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:14 pm One might even say we've broken out of the downward trend and are heading back to 4500+. Or not. But maybe. And like, we could even stay there for a whole week when we get there. Or go higher. Positivity! Rah rah, go team!
I think you covered pretty much all the bases.

Soar on! :moneybag
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TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:29 pm
Beensabu wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:14 pm One might even say we've broken out of the downward trend and are heading back to 4500+. Or not. But maybe. And like, we could even stay there for a whole week when we get there. Or go higher. Positivity! Rah rah, go team!
I think you covered pretty much all the bases.

Soar on! :moneybag
I need a Forester level drop or two yet so I can get an even better buy! Of course if it keeps going up I'll take what I can get. At least the Schiller PE and CAPE 10, CAPE 666, and 1/CAPE (OH NOES!!!!1) worshipers are staying quiet and possibly rethinking party orthodoxy...

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Post by 000 »

Here we go again :greedy
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

TheDDC wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:37 pmAt least the Schiller PE and CAPE 10, CAPE 666, and 1/CAPE (OH NOES!!!!1) worshipers are staying quiet and possibly rethinking party orthodoxy...
Oh no. I'm still doomy. The doom will come. Eventually. It could be awhile. Or not. Who knows. But this is a pep rally. So we cheer. Or hide under the bleachers. Either or.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Asia-Pacific looking good so far.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

rockstar wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:37 pm
HanSolo wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:12 am You're selling shares tomorrow?
I like soaring.
OK. I'm still a buyer. Just wondering whose pocket my cash is going into. Guess it wasn't yours!
TheDDC wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:37 pm At least the Schiller PE and CAPE 10, CAPE 666, and 1/CAPE (OH NOES!!!!1) worshipers are staying quiet and possibly rethinking party orthodoxy...
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
TheDDC wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:37 pm I need a Forester level drop or two yet so I can get an even better buy!
You mean you didn't properly thank Forester per the below...?
HanSolo wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:16 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:52 pm I call bottom on 9/21. Forester can thank me later.
Or... the other way around?
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:16 am
...Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward...
This is nothing that a great big dose of inflation won't cure.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

We made it through yesterday with no tapering.
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

We are definitely soaring today. Not as nicely as yesterday, but back to back plus days are always appreciated. :mrgreen:
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.
This is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
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TxFrog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TxFrog »

atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.
Agree. If you flip that around, a 5% forward earnings yield isn’t bad considering corporate bonds are around 2% and the risk free rate (T-Bills) is 0.1%.

At the peak of the dot-com bubble, the S&P500 forward earnings yield was 4% and corporate bonds were 6%!

Stocks definitely ain’t cheap right now, but I’m not buying into all the doom-and-gloom.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Toadie »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
So why aren't you helping the tortoise, Leon?
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
For me, it's Tesla, today, and I'll take it too :)
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:16 am
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
Nah... I do not accept. Most would be in crypto by then if we we just "accept lower returns", which I don't. I accept historical average.

-TheDDC
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

So I'm about 2% off my ATH. Feeling good about the market again.

Too much daily noise.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

rockstar wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:25 pm So I'm about 2% off my ATH. Feeling good about the market again.

Too much daily noise.
I'm about 1.5%. Getting close. :sharebeer
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.
This is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.
Does anyone have records showing prior future estimates? Just 10 years worth or so. I would be very interested.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Toadie wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:05 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.

I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
So why aren't you helping the tortoise, Leon?
If you're trying to provoke an emotional response, you need to mention "international". Ideally in combination with some expression of US exceptionalism, better recent past performance, the persistence prediction, and "I don't need no stinkin' geographic diversification ppppffffth".

Omg. Do it. Watch TDG flip that tortoise back over. Over and over and over again. Silly tortoise. Silly me for watching.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
My theory is that Amazon might have fewer supply chain issues than its competitors. I also wonder if Wal-Mart has done well recently, their supply chain has been very good, their reputation was that if you couldn't find it somewhere else, chances were you could find it at Wal-Mart.
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Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.
This is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.
Future estimates are often wrong and overly optimistic

Profit margins are abnormally high by historical standards, which is usually followed by subpar earnings growth because it’s not sustainable

PE10 is used for this reason, and while not perfect it smoothes out the abnormally good or bad years
Last edited by Nathan Drake on Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

TheDDC wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:15 pm
HanSolo wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:16 am
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
Nah... I do not accept. Most would be in crypto by then if we we just "accept lower returns", which I don't. I accept historical average.
I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.

Just to clarify... by "diminished returns" I didn't mean relative to historical average. I meant relative to what they would've been, had we not soared. For example, we don't know at what number the S&P will finish the decade, but it's a mathematical fact that returns from the current number to that endpoint are less than from some lower number to that endpoint. If, for example, we reach the 2029 endpoint number this year, then the remaining price return on the S&P will be zero for the rest of the decade. That is an example of diminished returns.

Not accepting diminished returns is mathematically equivalent to not accepting the soaring. And now that we know your position, glad to hear it!

Following up on this...
HanSolo wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:16 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:52 pm I call bottom on 9/21. Forester can thank me later.
Or... the other way around?
Just to clarify... my meaning was that I'm happy that Forester now has an apprentice in the delicate art of forecasting, and that it would be "good form" to thank him for your apprenticeship.

Good luck.
Last edited by HanSolo on Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AquaBliss
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AquaBliss »

pasadena wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:55 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
For me, it's Tesla, today, and I'll take it too :)
1week from today, Tesla will close over $1,000 for the first time. I mean I’m pretty sure at least ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:15 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
My theory is that Amazon might have fewer supply chain issues than its competitors. I also wonder if Wal-Mart has done well recently, their supply chain has been very good, their reputation was that if you couldn't find it somewhere else, chances were you could find it at Wal-Mart.
When we shop at Sam's Club, it looks like they're not having an issues at all. All shelves are stocked.
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