U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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SGM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SGM »

I never rebalanced and was essentially 100% stock during accumulation. Four years after full retirement I am about 70/30 stock to bond. I have been adding bond funds slowly. I don't have a need to take risk. I currently have a hodge-podge of muni bond funds, total bond market funds, Vanguard ETFs, a CD, an I-bond or two, an un-annuitized 7 year savings annuity through USAA, rental income and delayed social security starting very soon. (I am soon to become a burden on society). :wink:

Tomorrow I have an appointment to discuss my fixed income investments in my Roth and taxable accounts with a Vanguard advisor. It has been several years since I asked Vanguard to analyze my portfolio. I may ask for a free complete review. We are kind of in the preservation mode as we don't need to take any risks. It is hard for me to stop holding on to a large amount of stock as it has worked so well for me during the accumulation phase. Also we have a lot of large capital gains in the taxable account. Fortunately there will be no RMDs to pay taxes on ever. My Roth accounts have increased greatly since I started to convert in lower income years.


If this market continues in the current vein I will reach another milestone of sorts.
kagantx
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by kagantx »

Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:07 am
sc9182 wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:58 am Guess not much traction on this thread today - where as the competing "free fall" thread been going pretty strong !
6,806 for "freefall" vs. 144 for "soar."

This is getting to be "tastes great" vs. "less filling."

Edit: Darn it, up to 145 for "soar." :wink:
you have to consider the rate of posts.

The "freefall" thread took 11 days to get to the 4th page of posts.
The "soar" thread has managed to do that in just 3 days.

I am not sure, however, what market timing conclusion one should draw from that :wink:
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:11 pm...
you have to consider the rate of posts.

The "freefall" thread took 11 days to get to the 4th page of posts.
The "soar" thread has managed to do that in just 3 days.

I am not sure, however, what market timing conclusion one should draw from that :wink:
Momentum factor.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Irrational exuberance.
coupleofcents
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by coupleofcents »

Have to confess I'm having a hard time pushing the sell button on 15K of Total Stock Index right now that will become part of a down payment planned in 2021. FOMO maybe? Tempted to let it ride. Thoughts anyone.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar »

kagantx wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:54 pm Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
It's a rebalancing thread :)
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:13 pm Irrational exuberance.
Great! That means we have another four years left in this bull market! (ala Greenspan's famous speech)
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:55 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:13 pm Irrational exuberance.
Great! That means we have another four years left in this bull market! (ala Greenspan's famous speech)
And a doubling in value :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
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tuningfork
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tuningfork »

Hit my rebalance bands! Just before market close I issued the orders to exchange $200K of total US stock to mostly total bond and some international stock. The three-fund portfolio makes quick work of rebalancing compared to holding 10 or 20 different funds and individual stocks.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:06 pm
marcopolo wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:11 pm...
you have to consider the rate of posts.

The "freefall" thread took 11 days to get to the 4th page of posts.
The "soar" thread has managed to do that in just 3 days.

I am not sure, however, what market timing conclusion one should draw from that :wink:
Momentum factor.
Does the momentum factor apply to the Bogleheads forum? Apparently so. I suppose there is academic research on this. :wink:
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

GoldStar wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:30 pm
kagantx wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:54 pm Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
It's a rebalancing thread :)
Rebalance by posting in the other thread!

Just now, "soar" was at the top of the threads. "Freefall" was number two. Battle of the threads.
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LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LiterallyIronic »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:47 pm
GoldStar wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:30 pm
kagantx wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:54 pm Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
It's a rebalancing thread :)
Rebalance by posting in the other thread!

Just now, "soar" was at the top of the threads. "Freefall" was number two. Battle of the threads.
Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.
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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:11 pm The "freefall" thread took 11 days to get to the 4th page of posts.
The "soar" thread has managed to do that in just 3 days.

I am not sure, however, what market timing conclusion one should draw from that :wink:
Does that make this the stronger "bull" thread? :mrgreen:
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CaliJim »

perihelion wrote: Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:04 pm
CaliJim wrote: Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm We need an update frequency chart.

Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?
Here's a quick chart:
Image

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yV_BgG ... sp=sharing
Noice!
-calijim- | | For more info, click this Wiki
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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar »

I see the market has leveled out the last couple of days...
Don't worry - I won't be the one to start a "U.S. stocks have leveled" thread.....
Last edited by GoldStar on Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

GoldStar wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:34 pm I see the market has leveled out the last couple of days...
Don't work - I won't be the one to start a "U.S. stocks have leveled" thread.....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon »

This is just a vote for the"soar" thread :) .
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SmileyFace »

ruralavalon wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:45 pm This is just a vote for the"soar" thread :) .
+1 8-)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

It is interesting that once this thread popped up and started getting traction that the US Stock Market cooled off a bit. Yesterday the markets were down and today they closed mixed. Again, optimism is out there but no sign of euphoria.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

My username says it all

:wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week! :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week! :moneybag
My portfolio was down slightly today.
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week! :moneybag
My portfolio was down slightly today.
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
Probably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though. :wink:
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:35 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week! :moneybag
My portfolio was down slightly today.
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
Probably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though. :wink:
Maybe more appropriate given recent history:
JoMoney wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:55 pm U.S. International Stocks Stuck in Range Trading Rut!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:35 pm Probably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though. :wink:
Maybe we should come up with a drinking game where we take shots every time someone has to rebalance their International allocation back up to its intended percentage. Pretty sure we'd see a spike in liver transplants. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bobcat2 »

U.S. stocks continue to soar?

Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.


Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.

BobK
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
SPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Well, the last day of August was another good day. Up 0.58% for the day.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:38 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
SPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.
Yes, but I think that was all in January. The market has bounced up and down since. Great January, flat the rest of the year. In fact, I think the correction started in late January, if I remember right. So the gain was probably all in the first three weeks of 2018. My portfolio is still not back to January highs, though it got pretty close.
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Remember the guy a month or so ago

Post by Socrates »

who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
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Re: Remember the guy a month or so ago

Post by GoldStar »

Socrates28 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:34 pm who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
When I first joined I read a lot of back dated threads and there were numerous folks saying they were sitting on piles of cash, or had recently cashed out, since the inevitable crash was coming soon and they were gearing up to take advantage of it. I've only seen one of those folks repost saying they had probably made a mistake. Most don't seem to want to come back.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 10.43% year date. I don't call that running in place.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Remember the guy a month or so ago

Post by willthrill81 »

GoldStar wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:26 am
Socrates28 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:34 pm who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
When I first joined I read a lot of back dated threads and there were numerous folks saying they were sitting on piles of cash, or had recently cashed out, since the inevitable crash was coming soon and they were gearing up to take advantage of it. I've only seen one of those folks repost saying they had probably made a mistake. Most don't seem to want to come back.
It's that fear, that uncertainty of the outcome that over the long-term helps to drive stocks' returns.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by iceport »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:28 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:38 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
SPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.
Yes, but I think that was all in January. The market has bounced up and down since. Great January, flat the rest of the year. In fact, I think the correction started in late January, if I remember right. So the gain was probably all in the first three weeks of 2018. My portfolio is still not back to January highs, though it got pretty close.
Similar story here. In fairness, though, there was only a single weekend in January with a higher portfolio balance than right now. Balance is almost 3% higher than the January 1 starting value. Hey, I'll take it! It sure beats a crash during the first year of retirement. 8-)

Here's a chart of week-ending portfolio values for the past year, with no contributions or withdrawals, ~56-58% equities, ~38% of equities in international:

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

ruralavalon wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:35 am
nedsaid wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 10.43% year date. I don't call that running in place.
I am talking about where the market is in relation to market highs reached in January. We had a 10% correction and the market has bounced around since. We got back almost to January highs and then dipped slightly from there.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by duffer »

bobcat2 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?

Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.


Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.

BobK


Hunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.

Warren Buffet recommends S&P 500 funds for retirement dollars. They are all up about 9.9% YTD.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 2pedals »

GoldStar wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:30 pm
kagantx wrote: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:54 pm Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
It's a rebalancing thread :)
It's an Irrational exuberance thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bobcat2 »

duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:19 am
bobcat2 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?

Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.


Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Hunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.
Nothing surprising or inconsistent about any of this. The Wilshire 5000 total return with dividends reinvested and not accounting for inflation is up 9.4% for the entire year thru 31 August. However, from the January 26th peak through the end of August and accounting for inflation the total return for the Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested is only 1.3%. A lot of the total returns for the year occurred in the first four weeks of January and inflation also makes a difference.

Perhaps in the last trimester of the year the US stock market will again soar after seven months of mediocre growth. :D Then again maybe it won't. :(

* Apparently the calculator yesterday did not yet incorporate the data for the last two days in August - which likely accounts for the dip from 1.7% reported yesterday instead of the 1.3% reported today for 26 Jan through 31 August. (The stock market dropped 0.4% from EOD 29 August to EOD 31 August.)

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Don't get me wrong. I am always glad to see my holdings go up in value.

At the same time, I try to remind myself often of what Paul Merriman has said: "A year in the markets is just noise."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by duffer »

bobcat2 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:27 pm
duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:19 am
bobcat2 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?

Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.


Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Hunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.
Nothing surprising or inconsistent about any of this. The Wilshire 5000 total return with dividends reinvested and not accounting for inflation is up 9.4% for the entire year thru 31 August. However, from the January 26th peak through the end of August and accounting for inflation the total return for the Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested is only 1.3%. A lot of the total returns for the year occurred in the first four weeks of January and inflation also makes a difference.

Perhaps in the last trimester of the year the US stock market will again soar after seven months of mediocre growth. :D Then again maybe it won't. :(

* Apparently the calculator yesterday did not yet incorporate the data for the last two days in August - which likely accounts for the dip from 1.7% reported yesterday instead of the 1.3% reported today for 26 Jan through 31 August. (The stock market dropped 0.4% from EOD 29 August to EOD 31 August.)

BobK

I'm afraid I don't see your point. Do you mean that if you cherry-pick dates that you can demonstrate that the market does not always go up?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bobcat2 »

duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pmI'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW »

bobcat2 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pmI'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
I don't think the thread is meant to be taken that seriously or literally.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

bobcat2 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pmI'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
Since we're picking lots of nits in this thread, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out that one of the definitions of 'soar' is below.
to ascend to a higher or more exalted level
Here's another.
to rise or increase dramatically
Considering that the S&P 500 is essentially at its all time high, this qualifies as "soaring" by the first definition.

But its growth since January has been sluggish, to say the least. This does not qualify as "soaring" by the second definition.

So you're both right or wrong, depending on how you view such things.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by exoilman »

For anyone taking RMD's for the last 9 years VTASX has proven worthwhile. This is my 4th in December and my account was worth more each year. My wife starts in 2 years so moving some to VMFXX for her withdrawals. I am also doing same.
Perhaps someone here can calculate growth with dividend and capital gains reinvested. Not market timing just want to keep a steady reasonable income from our accounts.

Sam
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:08 pm
bobcat2 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pmI'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
Since we're picking lots of nits in this thread, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out that one of the definitions of 'soar' is below.
to ascend to a higher or more exalted level
Here's another.
to rise or increase dramatically
Considering that the S&P 500 is essentially at its all time high, this qualifies as "soaring" by the first definition.

But its growth since January has been sluggish, to say the least. This does not qualify as "soaring" by the second definition.

So you're both right or wrong, depending on how you view such things.
The thread was started kind of tongue-in-cheek as a counter to the freefall thread which folks continued to update even on market high days - market certainly isn't in freefall - all time highs this past week - that's soaring in my book (continuing to rise).
Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Engineer250 »

SGM wrote: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.

Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by duffer »

bobcat2 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
duffer wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pmI'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
Did you notice that the S&P is up 3.25% in the last four weeks--soaring, so to speak.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey »

Engineer250 wrote: Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
SGM wrote: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.

Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52. :shock: :thumbsup

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