U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I never rebalanced and was essentially 100% stock during accumulation. Four years after full retirement I am about 70/30 stock to bond. I have been adding bond funds slowly. I don't have a need to take risk. I currently have a hodge-podge of muni bond funds, total bond market funds, Vanguard ETFs, a CD, an I-bond or two, an un-annuitized 7 year savings annuity through USAA, rental income and delayed social security starting very soon. (I am soon to become a burden on society).
Tomorrow I have an appointment to discuss my fixed income investments in my Roth and taxable accounts with a Vanguard advisor. It has been several years since I asked Vanguard to analyze my portfolio. I may ask for a free complete review. We are kind of in the preservation mode as we don't need to take any risks. It is hard for me to stop holding on to a large amount of stock as it has worked so well for me during the accumulation phase. Also we have a lot of large capital gains in the taxable account. Fortunately there will be no RMDs to pay taxes on ever. My Roth accounts have increased greatly since I started to convert in lower income years.
If this market continues in the current vein I will reach another milestone of sorts.
Tomorrow I have an appointment to discuss my fixed income investments in my Roth and taxable accounts with a Vanguard advisor. It has been several years since I asked Vanguard to analyze my portfolio. I may ask for a free complete review. We are kind of in the preservation mode as we don't need to take any risks. It is hard for me to stop holding on to a large amount of stock as it has worked so well for me during the accumulation phase. Also we have a lot of large capital gains in the taxable account. Fortunately there will be no RMDs to pay taxes on ever. My Roth accounts have increased greatly since I started to convert in lower income years.
If this market continues in the current vein I will reach another milestone of sorts.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Huzzah! Always good to have two threads for market timing instead of just one!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
you have to consider the rate of posts.
The "freefall" thread took 11 days to get to the 4th page of posts.
The "soar" thread has managed to do that in just 3 days.
I am not sure, however, what market timing conclusion one should draw from that
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Momentum factor.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Irrational exuberance.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Have to confess I'm having a hard time pushing the sell button on 15K of Total Stock Index right now that will become part of a down payment planned in 2021. FOMO maybe? Tempted to let it ride. Thoughts anyone.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Great! That means we have another four years left in this bull market! (ala Greenspan's famous speech)
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And a doubling in valuewillthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:55 pmGreat! That means we have another four years left in this bull market! (ala Greenspan's famous speech)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Hit my rebalance bands! Just before market close I issued the orders to exchange $200K of total US stock to mostly total bond and some international stock. The three-fund portfolio makes quick work of rebalancing compared to holding 10 or 20 different funds and individual stocks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Does the momentum factor apply to the Bogleheads forum? Apparently so. I suppose there is academic research on this.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Rebalance by posting in the other thread!
Just now, "soar" was at the top of the threads. "Freefall" was number two. Battle of the threads.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Does that make this the stronger "bull" thread?
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Noice!perihelion wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:04 pmHere's a quick chart:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yV_BgG ... sp=sharing
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I see the market has leveled out the last couple of days...
Don't worry - I won't be the one to start a "U.S. stocks have leveled" thread.....
Don't worry - I won't be the one to start a "U.S. stocks have leveled" thread.....
Last edited by GoldStar on Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
U.S. Stocks Stuck in Range Trading Rut!
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is just a vote for the"soar" thread .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It is interesting that once this thread popped up and started getting traction that the US Stock Market cooled off a bit. Yesterday the markets were down and today they closed mixed. Again, optimism is out there but no sign of euphoria.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My username says it all
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week!
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My portfolio was down slightly today.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week!
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Probably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 pmMy portfolio was down slightly today.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week!
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Maybe more appropriate given recent history:willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:35 pmProbably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 pmMy portfolio was down slightly today.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:08 pm My holdings were up .16% today. I'm not sure that I'd call that soaring, but this has certainly been a great week!
Maybe we need parallel threads for International stocks "Falling" and "Soaring"?
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Maybe we should come up with a drinking game where we take shots every time someone has to rebalance their International allocation back up to its intended percentage. Pretty sure we'd see a spike in liver transplants.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:35 pm Probably. Gear up for the "International falling" thread to be more active though.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
U.S. stocks continue to soar?
Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.
Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/
Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.
Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/
Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). |
The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
SPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, the last day of August was another good day. Up 0.58% for the day.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, but I think that was all in January. The market has bounced up and down since. Great January, flat the rest of the year. In fact, I think the correction started in late January, if I remember right. So the gain was probably all in the first three weeks of 2018. My portfolio is still not back to January highs, though it got pretty close.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:38 pmSPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Remember the guy a month or so ago
who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
“Don't waste your time looking back. You're not going that way.” ― Ragnar Lothbrok.
Re: Remember the guy a month or so ago
When I first joined I read a lot of back dated threads and there were numerous folks saying they were sitting on piles of cash, or had recently cashed out, since the inevitable crash was coming soon and they were gearing up to take advantage of it. I've only seen one of those folks repost saying they had probably made a mistake. Most don't seem to want to come back.Socrates28 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:34 pm who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 10.43% year date. I don't call that running in place.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: Remember the guy a month or so ago
It's that fear, that uncertainty of the outcome that over the long-term helps to drive stocks' returns.GoldStar wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:26 amWhen I first joined I read a lot of back dated threads and there were numerous folks saying they were sitting on piles of cash, or had recently cashed out, since the inevitable crash was coming soon and they were gearing up to take advantage of it. I've only seen one of those folks repost saying they had probably made a mistake. Most don't seem to want to come back.Socrates28 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:34 pm who said the end is near as stocks are crashing? He was selling everything ......posted here on BH forum.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Similar story here. In fairness, though, there was only a single weekend in January with a higher portfolio balance than right now. Balance is almost 3% higher than the January 1 starting value. Hey, I'll take it! It sure beats a crash during the first year of retirement.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:28 pmYes, but I think that was all in January. The market has bounced up and down since. Great January, flat the rest of the year. In fact, I think the correction started in late January, if I remember right. So the gain was probably all in the first three weeks of 2018. My portfolio is still not back to January highs, though it got pretty close.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:38 pmSPY is up 6.32% for the year. That seems really solid to me. My portfolio is currently up 11.66% for the year.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
Here's a chart of week-ending portfolio values for the past year, with no contributions or withdrawals, ~56-58% equities, ~38% of equities in international:
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I am talking about where the market is in relation to market highs reached in January. We had a 10% correction and the market has bounced around since. We got back almost to January highs and then dipped slightly from there.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:35 amTotal return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 10.43% year date. I don't call that running in place.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm Actually stocks here in the US have been pretty much running in place since January. My portfolio still never quite got back to its all time highs. The stock market was great again in 2017 but not so much in 2018. This is also tempered by the fact that bonds are slightly down for the year. Most portfolios are probably up for the year but not by a lot.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
bobcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?
Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.
Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/
Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Hunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.
Warren Buffet recommends S&P 500 funds for retirement dollars. They are all up about 9.9% YTD.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nothing surprising or inconsistent about any of this. The Wilshire 5000 total return with dividends reinvested and not accounting for inflation is up 9.4% for the entire year thru 31 August. However, from the January 26th peak through the end of August and accounting for inflation the total return for the Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested is only 1.3%. A lot of the total returns for the year occurred in the first four weeks of January and inflation also makes a difference.duffer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:19 amHunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.bobcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?
Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.
Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/
Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Perhaps in the last trimester of the year the US stock market will again soar after seven months of mediocre growth. Then again maybe it won't.
* Apparently the calculator yesterday did not yet incorporate the data for the last two days in August - which likely accounts for the dip from 1.7% reported yesterday instead of the 1.3% reported today for 26 Jan through 31 August. (The stock market dropped 0.4% from EOD 29 August to EOD 31 August.)
BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). |
The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Don't get me wrong. I am always glad to see my holdings go up in value.
At the same time, I try to remind myself often of what Paul Merriman has said: "A year in the markets is just noise."
At the same time, I try to remind myself often of what Paul Merriman has said: "A year in the markets is just noise."
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
bobcat2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:27 pmNothing surprising or inconsistent about any of this. The Wilshire 5000 total return with dividends reinvested and not accounting for inflation is up 9.4% for the entire year thru 31 August. However, from the January 26th peak through the end of August and accounting for inflation the total return for the Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested is only 1.3%. A lot of the total returns for the year occurred in the first four weeks of January and inflation also makes a difference.duffer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:19 amHunh. I'm up 9.8% YTD (as of the end of August) with 100% in equities.bobcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm U.S. stocks continue to soar?
Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7%.
Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator.
Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/
Calculator estimates inflation rate for August by extrapolating CPI inflation rate for last several months preceding August.
BobK
Perhaps in the last trimester of the year the US stock market will again soar after seven months of mediocre growth. Then again maybe it won't.
* Apparently the calculator yesterday did not yet incorporate the data for the last two days in August - which likely accounts for the dip from 1.7% reported yesterday instead of the 1.3% reported today for 26 Jan through 31 August. (The stock market dropped 0.4% from EOD 29 August to EOD 31 August.)
BobK
I'm afraid I don't see your point. Do you mean that if you cherry-pick dates that you can demonstrate that the market does not always go up?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar.
BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). |
The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I don't think the thread is meant to be taken that seriously or literally.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Since we're picking lots of nits in this thread, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out that one of the definitions of 'soar' is below.
Here's another.to ascend to a higher or more exalted level
Considering that the S&P 500 is essentially at its all time high, this qualifies as "soaring" by the first definition.to rise or increase dramatically
But its growth since January has been sluggish, to say the least. This does not qualify as "soaring" by the second definition.
So you're both right or wrong, depending on how you view such things.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For anyone taking RMD's for the last 9 years VTASX has proven worthwhile. This is my 4th in December and my account was worth more each year. My wife starts in 2 years so moving some to VMFXX for her withdrawals. I am also doing same.
Perhaps someone here can calculate growth with dividend and capital gains reinvested. Not market timing just want to keep a steady reasonable income from our accounts.
Sam
Perhaps someone here can calculate growth with dividend and capital gains reinvested. Not market timing just want to keep a steady reasonable income from our accounts.
Sam
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The thread was started kind of tongue-in-cheek as a counter to the freefall thread which folks continued to update even on market high days - market certainly isn't in freefall - all time highs this past week - that's soaring in my book (continuing to rise).willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:08 pmSince we're picking lots of nits in this thread, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out that one of the definitions of 'soar' is below.
Here's another.to ascend to a higher or more exalted level
Considering that the S&P 500 is essentially at its all time high, this qualifies as "soaring" by the first definition.to rise or increase dramatically
But its growth since January has been sluggish, to say the least. This does not qualify as "soaring" by the second definition.
So you're both right or wrong, depending on how you view such things.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.SGM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Did you notice that the S&P is up 3.25% in the last four weeks--soaring, so to speak.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52.Engineer250 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pmI am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.SGM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman