U.S. stocks continue to soar!

[rchmx1]

So. Much. Green.

[JoMoney]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

[Aw0k3n]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

Thank you
The most actionable part of this post is the archive.is link which seems to have access to articles that otherwise I would not be able to read. Whales, sharks, cephalopods - they can do what they wish..I will just buy more total market when i can.

[rchmx1]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

I love articles like this because the give such compelling insights, such as: "Two derivatives professionals identified the strategy as a "Trump trade," though a blue-wave win for former-Vice President Joe Biden could make the wager a winner as well, according to market strategists."

[Aw0k3n]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

I love articles like this because the give such compelling insights, such as: "Two derivatives professionals identified the strategy as a "Trump trade," though a blue-wave win for former-Vice President Joe Biden could make the wager a winner as well, according to market strategists."

Yes..heads..heads..that what is going to win..although it could be tails as a winner as well.

[canadianbacon]

Nice little rip... let's hope it lasts the night.

[keanoz]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

Masa?

[CurlyDave]

Nice little rip... let's hope it lasts the night.

Yes !

My QQQ is up 1.7% from Friday's close.

Now I don't play in that rarified atmosphere where someone can bet $200M on a derivatives contract. And I don't buy derivatives, but down on my level, where the mice play, it looks like there is a little soaring going on.

[ThereAreNoGurus]

Someone is really cleaning up, some 'mysterious' investor had been buying options expecting a market 'soar' in prices before they expire at the end of last week and this coming week.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-b ... 20-10?op=1
https://archive.is/9i4a5

On that same page saw a business insider link with the text: "Stock market crash: Jim Rogers sees plunge exceeding Financial Crisis"

LOL

[z3r0c00l]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

[ThereAreNoGurus]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

Pfizer is expected to release their Phase III trial results and get FDA approval this month as well.

[Stinky]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

Hope springs eternal!

[lostdog]

Nice little rip... let's hope it lasts the night.

Yes !

My QQQ is up 1.7% from Friday's close.

Now I don't play in that rarified atmosphere where someone can bet $200M on a derivatives contract. And I don't buy derivatives, but down on my level, where the mice play, it looks like there is a little soaring going on.

Grats! curly family!

[CurlyDave]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

But then I already have my bets down on that side of the table.

[willthrill81]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

[000]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

Asset inflation is relevant for those who rebalance between fiat-denominated assets and real assets though (i.e. most Boglehead portfolios).

[lostdog]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

If it's being hoarded, who is holding it? Most Americans are broke.

[willthrill81]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

If it's being hoarded, who is holding it? Most Americans are broke.

Banks and Fortune 500 companies are mega holders of cash. Apple alone has almost $200 billion in cash.

[goodenyou]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

I am not an economist, nor do I pretend to understand economics, but what role does increase productivity and deflationary forces like globalism (Amazon) play in absorbing the excess aggregate demand (money supply)? I don't even know if I am even stating that correctly.

[lostdog]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

If it's being hoarded, who is holding it? Most Americans are broke.

Banks and Fortune 500 companies are mega holders of cash. Apple alone has almost $200 billion in cash.

Makes sense. Thanks!

[2pedals]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

I probably don't need a vaccine, I already have natural immunity after that single dose covid-19 two weeks ago, but I will take some of that stimulus.

[Random Poster]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

I think it depends on what inflation you are measuring.

I read somewhere (WSJ, maybe) that the inflation has been in the stock market and not in the traditionally measured basket of goods.

[CurlyDave]

...Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

As much as I see your point, I think there might be a difference. $10T over a decade is $T per year. That is like going from low tide to high tide. $2T passed out in 2 weeks is more like a tsunami of money.

And we can talk about the added money being hoarded, but when someone gives Joe Sixpack his fair share of $2T, he is not going to hoard the money. He will turn into Joe Twelvepack.

[willthrill81]

...Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

As much as I see your point, I think there might be a difference. $10T over a decade is $T per year. That is like going from low tide to high tide. $2T passed out in 2 weeks is more like a tsunami of money.

And we can talk about the added money being hoarded, but when someone gives Joe Sixpack his fair share of $2T, he is not going to hoard the money. He will turn into Joe Twelvepack.

The $2 trillion has come and gone, but I'm not seeing meaningful inflation anywhere, nor is it apparently being reflected in CPI.

In the thread I linked to, you can see that despite the rapid increase in the money supply, the velocity of money has dropped even further. Apparently, just as happened to the handful of rich folks in George Clason's Richest Man in Babylon, a large portion of the stimulus money has already found its way into the hands of a relative few.

[willthrill81]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

I am not an economist, nor do I pretend to understand economics, but what role does increase productivity and deflationary forces like globalism (Amazon) play in absorbing the excess aggregate demand (money supply)? I don't even know if I am even stating that correctly.

Productivity does not actually appear to impact inflation, as noted in this article.

Neither does globalization seem to have a meaningful impact on a large nation's inflation rate, as discussed in this article.

The market apparently believes that the Fed won't even be able to hit its 2% inflation target over the next decade since the market is currently estimating inflation over the next decade to be 1.65%.

[goodenyou]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

Over $10 trillion was added to the money supply over the last decade, yet inflation has remained very tame. One reason, as discussed in this thread, is because the additional money has been hoarded and not widely circulated through the economy. As long as the velocity of money remains low, a larger money supply will not lead to systematically higher inflation.

I am not an economist, nor do I pretend to understand economics, but what role does increase productivity and deflationary forces like globalism (Amazon) play in absorbing the excess aggregate demand (money supply)? I don't even know if I am even stating that correctly.

Productivity does not actually appear to impact inflation, as noted in this article.

Neither does globalization seem to have a meaningful impact on a large nation's inflation rate, as discussed in this article.

The market apparently believes that the Fed won't even be able to hit its 2% inflation target over the next decade since the market is currently estimating inflation over the next decade to be 1.65%.

Thank you for that.

[mrspock]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

But then I already have my bets down on that side of the table.

Modest yes (3-4%), the Fed already telegraphed this with their new “average inflation” policy . This allows the debt to be monetized away without raising taxes, while interest rates are suppressed while they do this. On the flip side, it won’t be a great time to be a bond holder.

Sounds like a fine plan where I sit. I never wanted to use my own money to pay for my mortgage anyhow .

But enough about that, futures are SOARING.... the Vulcan Sovereign Fund is looking to have an excellent day tomorrow!

[nzahir]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

But then I already have my bets down on that side of the table.

Only leads to inflation where money is being spent, so all the big cities (LA, SF, NY, Chi, etc)

Sadly for someone who lives in a big city, this makes it incredibly tough to buy a home

What the Fed has done to savers is disgusting, people who are near retirement or retired shouldn't be having to take such high risk with their money

[CurlyDave]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

$2T of stimulus is spelled I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.

But then I already have my bets down on that side of the table.

Only leads to inflation where money is being spent, so all the big cities (LA, SF, NY, Chi, etc)

Sadly for someone who lives in a big city, this makes it incredibly tough to buy a home

What the Fed has done to savers is disgusting, people who are near retirement or retired shouldn't be having to take such high risk with their money

I have been retired for 13 years.

Before I retired I thought the situation over and decided that the greatest threat to my financial future in retirement was inflation. You need to realize that inflation is a risk, just like a market decline is a risk. Life is full of risks and they don't go away when one retires. One of the ways to address this risk is to increase the stock portion of your AA. There are other ways also. Owning rental real estate is an inflation hedge, leverage increases the hedge. Having a fixed rate mortgage is another one.

There are times when I think that inflation is a certainty instead of a risk. But then I suppose the amount of inflation is the risk.

[lostdog]

Sea of green. Europe and Asia so far. Up next, USA.

[zarci]

I just wanted to check in and say I started investing with a lump sum of 4x annual expenses a little over a year ago.

In that time i've seen an 11% melt-up, then a vicious 45%-ish drop while facing job insecurity, but followed by a swift recovery. And today i take a peek and we've hit a new record at 12% in the green.

What a year it has been.

I'm extremely grateful to all bogleheads that carry this board and vision, and for the market dip in march that enabled me to test my risk tolerance in a real-world scenario.

Cheers

[occambogle]

Sea of green. Europe and Asia so far. Up next, USA.

Now heading greener than green... seemingly in response to this. What a week it has been!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/heal ... fizer.html

[zarci]

Sea of green. Europe and Asia so far. Up next, USA.

Now heading greener than green... seemingly in response to this. What a week it has been!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/heal ... fizer.html

Days like these really drive home the idea that "most growth happens during only a handful of days"

[Third Son]

Sea of green. Europe and Asia so far. Up next, USA.

Now heading greener than green... seemingly in response to this. What a week it has been!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/heal ... fizer.html

I just retired from Pfizer in February. Glad to see this is getting some traction.

[occambogle]

Days like these really drive home the idea that "most growth happens during only a handful of days"

I was just thinking the same. If you werent invested in the last 5-10 days etc you'd have missed out on a lot. Interestingly S&P500 is up significantly more than Nasdaq, presumably a trade away from the stay-at-home play. Personally I think that could be a little premature, but I guess prices are always forward looking...

[flyingcows]

Russell 2000 futures up 7% this morning, so far

[z3r0c00l]

Yikes I go to bed and futures up another percent, DAX is over 4% today, 10% for the week to date.

[Wanderingwheelz]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

Actually it was Phizer, not Moderna, but the result is still sufficiently handy. May see S&P 4500 before the close today.

Waiting for the stimulus announcement..

[z3r0c00l]

Nikkei opens up nearly 2%. Just wait till Moderna releases the good results on their phase 3 trial at the end of the month, and J&J announces that they also have a room temperature stable, single dose vaccine that can be produced in the billions by next summer. That plus $2T of stimulus, I'd say S&P 4500 isn't too far off.

Actually it was Phizer, not Moderna, but the result is still sufficiently handy. May see S&P 4500 before the close today.

Waiting for the stimulus announcement..

Moderna will announce in a few weeks.

[Keenobserver]

Airlines going bunker and cruises

[Stef]

Europe up 5% today. SP500 future close to 4%.

Is this all due to Biden election?

[z3r0c00l]

Europe up 5% today. SP500 future close to 4%.

Is this all due to Biden election?

90% effective vaccine just announced, 20+M doses ready by end of year. Call it a big wave on the Biden tide of this week.

[awval999]

It's due to Pfizer's vaccine data being better than expected.

[Livelife2fullest]

Folks, this is going to be a day (possibly week/month) that we all wish we were 100% equities!

Pfizer and BioNTech said trial data indicated their Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective.

[Pawpatrol]

Folks, this is going to be a day (possibly week/month) that we all wish we were 100% equities!

Pfizer and BioNTech said trial data indicated their Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective.

Great timing hitting rebalance bands on friday - smh

[tiburblium]

Looks like this will an epic day for value and international

[canadianbacon]

Looks like this will an epic day for value and international

Epic day for everything but QQQ, but they've had plenty of fun this year.

[Pawpatrol]

Looks like this will an epic day for value and international

As i mentioned in scv thread, russell 2000 has broken 2018 all time high in premarket

[Gufomel]

Yahoo Finance futures must be “stuck”? I was wondering where all this talk about futures up 5-7% were coming from until I checked other places.

Wow what a day this is shaping up to be!

[gonefishing01]

WOW. This could be the week where we find out if the circuit breakers work on the way up. What a year, 2020