U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

rchmx1 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:35 am Getting more green the last couple hours. :moneybag
Futures trending up overnight.

New all time highs are on the horizon.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Must be stimulus optimism, no?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 am Must be stimulus optimism, no?
Pretty much. There is 48 hour deadline and the market is optimistic that something will get done sooner rather than later.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:39 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 am Must be stimulus optimism, no?
Pretty much. There is 48 hour deadline and the market is optimistic that something will get done sooner rather than later.
Right. If nothing gets done, I'm sure we will plummet
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:55 am
Blue456 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:39 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 am Must be stimulus optimism, no?
Pretty much. There is 48 hour deadline and the market is optimistic that something will get done sooner rather than later.
Right. If nothing gets done, I'm sure we will plummet
Yup. I’m still bullish on stocks being up by summer or late spring next year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:55 am
Blue456 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:39 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 am Must be stimulus optimism, no?
Pretty much. There is 48 hour deadline and the market is optimistic that something will get done sooner rather than later.
Right. If nothing gets done, I'm sure we will plummet
If plummets then buy more..stimulus is coming wither way. albait delayed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Keenobserver wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:04 am
atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:55 am
Blue456 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:39 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:11 am Must be stimulus optimism, no?
Pretty much. There is 48 hour deadline and the market is optimistic that something will get done sooner rather than later.
Right. If nothing gets done, I'm sure we will plummet
If plummets then buy more..stimulus is coming wither way. albait delayed
Let the bubble grow grow grow :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Picking up steam
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gonefishing01 »

A little tug of war going on between US and International right now. Put your back into it, VTI!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Kookaburra »

What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:05 pm What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
No stimulus.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

My truck is backing up this week!

Stocks here I come! Maybe throw in some oil too.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:14 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:05 pm What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
No stimulus.
But there is still 24 hours for one. Investors seem to be glass half empty these days...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:20 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:14 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:05 pm What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
No stimulus.
But there is still 24 hours for one. Investors seem to be glass half empty these days...
Yeah who could be pessimistic in 2020 :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Kookaburra wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:05 pm What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
Stocks up at the open this morning.

But they were up early yesterday, until “the air was let out of the tires”.

Let’s hope that today ends up better. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

All the while, bonds were inching down for the past 3 months.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Stinky wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:41 am
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:05 pm What let the air out of the tires, so to speak?
Stocks up at the open this morning.

But they were up early yesterday, until “the air was let out of the tires”.

Let’s hope that today ends up better. :moneybag
Take another look.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

So far earnings season has been really good, I think we are over 3600 by the end of November. Weighing season has begun...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

Whooo let the stocks out?..
Woof, woof-woof!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Netflix reports today. Let's hope they have a good number to drive the market higher.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

My REITs are really soaring today. Up around 2% together, with the highest flier at 3.2%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Starting off looking nice and green today. :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:45 am Very low level soaring -- more like a fat chicken running away from a dog. Lots of squawking and wing beating but not getting much air. Feathers flying everywhere.
Feels the same way today.....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Mr Market being very watchful..little apprehensive...little excited
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:56 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:45 am Very low level soaring -- more like a fat chicken running away from a dog. Lots of squawking and wing beating but not getting much air. Feathers flying everywhere.
Feels the same way today.....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

My truck backed up today!!!!!!😂😂🤣🤣
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

I expect volatility for at least the next two weeks. I also expect long term rates to go up if we get more stimulus. I do hope I'm wrong.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenGoose »

I am a long term buy and hold kinda guy. With that said I have some serious short term gains that fluctuate with this market. It pains me to see when the gains retreat from the peaks. Its one story when you start at 0 and then hit the highs where the trough is but it's another story when you hit the peak and then retreat back to the trough level. Somerimes I envy the index folks but would I trade what I have with them? Hmm.

The hard part will come this March when my gains become long term. Being through the gyrations of the market, I hope I can resist the temptation of selling.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bog007 »

looks like were about to get back to february highs. wowa all the stuff that happened in between :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Kookaburra »

abuss368 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:23 pm My truck backed up today!!!!!!😂😂🤣🤣
Did you do the backing up, or does you’re truck pretty much do it on its own these days? Like Maximum Overdrive?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Kookaburra wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:37 pm
abuss368 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:23 pm My truck backed up today!!!!!!😂😂🤣🤣
Did you do the backing up, or does you’re truck pretty much do it on its own these days? Like Maximum Overdrive?
I’m installing a Knight Rider KITT system. Will do it on it’s own.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:09 am
Kookaburra wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:37 pm
abuss368 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:23 pm My truck backed up today!!!!!!😂😂🤣🤣
Did you do the backing up, or does you’re truck pretty much do it on its own these days? Like Maximum Overdrive?
I’m installing a Knight Rider KITT system. Will do it on it’s own.
If you installed a Bloomberg terminal in your truck, you could know exactly when to back up your truck, and exactly how far to back it up. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I have a little extra cash ready to buy when stimulus talks fall apart. Any day now... :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Stinky wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:18 am
abuss368 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:09 am
Kookaburra wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:37 pm
abuss368 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:23 pm My truck backed up today!!!!!!😂😂🤣🤣
Did you do the backing up, or does you’re truck pretty much do it on its own these days? Like Maximum Overdrive?
I’m installing a Knight Rider KITT system. Will do it on it’s own.
If you installed a Bloomberg terminal in your truck, you could know exactly when to back up your truck, and exactly how far to back it up. :D
I love that idea! I could be a modern day Gordon Gekko! “Money doesn’t sleep pal”.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

atdharris wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:12 am I have a little extra cash ready to buy when stimulus talks fall apart. Any day now... :D
We will not know in advance. All us investors can do is keep buying over the long term while realizing security selection and market timing do not work.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Futures are up.

Looks like a strong end to the week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

rockstar wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:08 pm ...I also expect long term rates to go up if we get more stimulus. I do hope I'm wrong.
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, says the Fed might be concerned if long term rates go up. According to her, the upper limit for the 10-year is 1%. “At that point the Fed may be somewhat concerned and we may see some kind of yield curve control,” she said. link

Oct 29th Edit: Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher's year-end target for the 10-year yield is 0.90% to 1%. Next year, he sees it between 1.25% to 1.50%.

#prediction #yield
Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:55 pm Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, says the Fed might be concerned if long term rates go up. According to her, the upper limit for the 10-year is 1%. “At that point the Fed may be somewhat concerned and we may see some kind of yield curve control,” she said. link
It’s hard to put my arms around “the upper limit for the 10–year is 1%”.

Is there any year prior to 2020 when such a statement would have been uttered?

Using the rule of 72, a 1% interest rate will double your money by the year 2092. I’ll be almost 140 years old by that time!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Stinky wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:25 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:55 pm Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, says the Fed might be concerned if long term rates go up. According to her, the upper limit for the 10-year is 1%. “At that point the Fed may be somewhat concerned and we may see some kind of yield curve control,” she said. link
It’s hard to put my arms around “the upper limit for the 10–year is 1%”.

Is there any year prior to 2020 when such a statement would have been uttered?

Using the rule of 72, a 1% interest rate will double your money by the year 2092. I’ll be almost 140 years old by that time!
Nominal yields are indeed crazy low, but inflation is very low too, so real bond yields seem likely to be better than the worst we've seen in the past. Still, bonds shouldn't be expected to do anything productive for investors for a long time going forward, beyond potentially giving them enough ballast to tolerate stocks' volatility.

As I recently heard someone say, 'you want to be an owner, not a loaner.'
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:25 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:55 pm Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, says the Fed might be concerned if long term rates go up. According to her, the upper limit for the 10-year is 1%. “At that point the Fed may be somewhat concerned and we may see some kind of yield curve control,” she said. link
It’s hard to put my arms around “the upper limit for the 10–year is 1%”.

Is there any year prior to 2020 when such a statement would have been uttered?

Using the rule of 72, a 1% interest rate will double your money by the year 2092. I’ll be almost 140 years old by that time!
Nominal yields are indeed crazy low, but inflation is very low too, so real bond yields seem likely to be better than the worst we've seen in the past. Still, bonds shouldn't be expected to do anything productive for investors for a long time going forward, beyond potentially giving them enough ballast to tolerate stocks' volatility.

As I recently heard someone say, 'you want to be an owner, not a loaner.'
Cash makes more sense for me more than bonds right now. There is no guarantee of negative correlation now. If I want yield, I still like hunting preferred stock for good companies at or below par. But it's not always easy to find this situation.

This is ugly.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there. A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome. The rapid recovery from March 2020 has lulled investors into a false sense of security.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:23 am My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there. A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome. The rapid recovery from March 2020 has lulled investors into a false sense of security.
Stop making me giddy.....I could only be so lucky to see a 60% drop. I've got a giant hoard of bonds waiting for those balancing bands to kick in :) . Bears/failed market timers donated over $100k in March to the Vulcan sovereign wealth fund, I'd be more than willing to liberate them of more money.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

mrspock wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:34 am
Forester wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:23 am My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there. A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome. The rapid recovery from March 2020 has lulled investors into a false sense of security.
Stop making me giddy.....I could only be so lucky to see a 60% drop. I've got a giant hoard of bonds waiting for those balancing bands to kick in :) . Bears/failed market timers donated over $100k in March to the Vulcan sovereign wealth fund, I'd be more than willing to liberate them of more money.
Mrspock,

Just a friendly :happy reminder that both Vulcans and Bogleheads are both into non emotional investing.

Remember this simple formula: G+I=B. [Giddy+Investing=Bad]

Just trying to help,

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:23 am My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there. A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome. The rapid recovery from March 2020 has lulled investors into a false sense of security.
Since when do two events with different triggers make a pattern? I've already seen one headline about 67% future drawdowns. Maybe a huge crash is not really the least expected outcome.
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Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:23 am My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there.
Heh. A pattern? This is a perfect example of the human propensity to see patterns in everything, no matter how random.
A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome.
Actually, the U.S. government abandoning the dollar and using seashells for money instead is probably the last thing most investors expect... Does that it make it the most likely outcome?
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

If no stimulus after elections I would be worried. People were calling sp500 to 1600 in March.
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Post by Doom&Gloom »

Keenobserver wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:51 pm If no stimulus after elections I would be worried. People were calling sp500 to 1600 in March.
"People," you say? Sounds very intriguing and ominous.
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Post by rchmx1 »

Hey, I just read somewhere that the US is thinking about ditching the dollar and moving to seashells as currency!! I don't know about you guys but I'm heading to the beach with the biggest dufflebag I can find!!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:23 am My suspicion is that the next market crash will be 60%+. GFC was worse than Dotcom so the pattern is there. A crash worse than GFC is the last thing most investors expect and are least prepared for, therefore it's the most likely outcome. The rapid recovery from March 2020 has lulled investors into a false sense of security.
The big question is how much will it run up before the next crash.

The next big question is do stocks from beaten down industries offer protection from the next crash.
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Post by lostdog »

Forester sure takes a beating but he sticks to his guns.
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Post by firebirdparts »

I say whoever is calling for SP500 at 1600 needs to cut it out. That's what I think.
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