U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Colorado Guy
Posts: 89
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Colorado Guy »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:39 pm
Oh, elk is good. Very good. Elk are ruminant animals, meaning they chew their cud like cows, and that's a laid back, take it as it comes, attitude right there. (Did some elk research to uncover that fact.) Already feeling elkish.
Image
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Colorado Guy wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:07 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:39 pm
Oh, elk is good. Very good. Elk are ruminant animals, meaning they chew their cud like cows, and that's a laid back, take it as it comes, attitude right there. (Did some elk research to uncover that fact.) Already feeling elkish.
Image
Can someone post a picture of a soaring elk?

Would that be a reindeer?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:35 pm
Can someone post a picture of a soaring elk?

Would that be a reindeer?
A Peryton is the best I can do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peryton

Although right now futures are up 0.5%, which may augur a nice opening.

(Augury frequently involved predicting the future by observing the flight patterns of birds. A particularly good thing for a soaring thread. There was no ancient divination method involving the flight of elk.)
Last edited by CurlyDave on Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 1573
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey »

Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:35 pm Can someone post a picture of a soaring elk?

Would that be a reindeer?
Posted in this thread during the 2019 Santa Claus Rally.

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:40 am
Stinky wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:35 pm
Can someone post a picture of a soaring elk?

Would that be a reindeer?
A Peryton is the best I can do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peryton
Winner, winner!

A Peryton sure looks like a soaring elk.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
gonefishing01
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:09 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gonefishing01 »

Futures are looking like the Peryton will take flight today :moneybag
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

gonefishing01 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:16 am Futures are looking like the Peryton will take flight today :moneybag
Market up 1.5% at the open.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
lostdog
Posts: 3172
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

:moneybag

🤑
tmcc
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tmcc »

i hate gaps up. its basically a guaranteed dip to buy in a week or so

a slightly red opening and daily green 10-25bp grind are the best of all
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:33 am
gonefishing01 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:16 am Futures are looking like the Peryton will take flight today :moneybag
Market up 1.5% at the open.
Mr. Market is backing off just a little.

Sadly the Curly Family Portfolio is "only" up .75% today, compared to S&P at 1.4%. :confused :confused
Robot Monster
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:01 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:33 am
gonefishing01 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:16 am Futures are looking like the Peryton will take flight today :moneybag
Market up 1.5% at the open.
Mr. Market is backing off just a little.

Sadly the Curly Family Portfolio is "only" up .75% today, compared to S&P at 1.4%. :confused :confused
I thought you were heavy into QQQ (?) which is up 1.35%.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:17 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:01 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:33 am
gonefishing01 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:16 am Futures are looking like the Peryton will take flight today :moneybag
Market up 1.5% at the open.
Mr. Market is backing off just a little.

Sadly the Curly Family Portfolio is "only" up .75% today, compared to S&P at 1.4%. :confused :confused
I thought you were heavy into QQQ (?) which is up 1.35%.
I am in my tax-advantaged accounts. There are two reasons why today is not as good for me as for the market as a whole.

1. Back in 2005 I put all of my fun money into a little fruit company, AAPL. I have sold small amounts for things like house down payments for the kids, cars, but I have held the bulk of it through thick and thin. It has grown by about 100-fold. Now, I know the standard advice would be to sell part of this holding when it got too big, but I would be a much poorer man if I had done that. It is in a taxable account and most of our charitable contributions are done by transferring shares of AAPL. I will tap it if I have to, but for now my plan is to hold a substantial part as an inheritance for the kids. There will be a step-up in basis, and I hopefully I will snooker the tax man from the grave.

Uncharacteristically, AAPL is not doing as well as QQQ today.

2. About two years ago, I had been reading the advice on this site too much and decided that I should change from 100% stocks to about 80/20 stocks/bonds. While this may be good advice, the result is that our tax advantaged accounts have not done as well as the market in general, although we are better positioned to handle a downturn.
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34 am 2. About two years ago, I had been reading the advice on this site too much and decided that I should change from 100% stocks to about 80/20 stocks/bonds. While this may be good advice, the result is that our tax advantaged accounts have not done as well as the market in general, although we are better positioned to handle a downturn.
The S&P 500 (100/0) isn’t the right benchmark for an 80/20 portfolio — a theoretical 80/20 portfolio is the correct benchmark.

If you got close to that, you are doing just fine. If you really want to compare them head to head, you’d have to factor in the cost/probability of behavioral errors between the portfolios. I suspect 100/0 is so prone to error (e.g. panic selling during crashes) it would lose such a comparison.
Robot Monster
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34 am Uncharacteristically, AAPL is not doing as well as QQQ today.
Apple must have heard you, and stepped up its game.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:03 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34 am Uncharacteristically, AAPL is not doing as well as QQQ today.
Apple must have heard you, and stepped up its game.
You are right. I went out late morning to help some friends with moving and behold: the Curly Family Portfolio beat SPY, QQQ and the Dow today. A great day.
Keenobserver
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:20 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:03 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34 am Uncharacteristically, AAPL is not doing as well as QQQ today.
Apple must have heard you, and stepped up its game.
You are right. I went out late morning to help some friends with moving and behold: the Curly Family Portfolio beat SPY, QQQ and the Dow today. A great day.
A good day yes. Not so great if you look at the month, but I will take it.
tmcc
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tmcc »

for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
000
Posts: 2771
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
To whom? Why? What if stocks have a bad 20 year run?

Lump sum Jan 2000 - Aug 2020:
US Stocks: 6.55% CAGR
Long Term Treasury: 7.82% CAGR
Gold: 9.34% CAGR
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: 6.99% CAGR

Now, you might say, 'well you're cherry picking; that was the height of the dot com bubble.' And I would say: 'to which other year in the history of the US stock market is 2020 more similar?'

Then, you might say, 'well real investors don't lump sum; they contribute over many years.' And I would say: 'some receive lumpy income (inheritance, sale of a successful business venture, payout from a lawsuit related to events that left them disabled) and are regularly advised to lump sum on this forum.'

Then, you might say, 'well let's just consider normal investing by regular salaried employees.' And I would say: 'the ability to make future contributions does not change what the best investment today is.'
tmcc
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tmcc »

in a zirp interest rate environment, make your own decisions
User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 1791
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Yeah, it's not really my full time job to argue on the internet.
A fool and your money are soon partners
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 9115
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Market top confirmed.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
I think we need to get tmcc and Forester together for a debate :twisted:
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
000
Posts: 2771
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:10 pm in a zirp interest rate environment, make your own decisions
Fair
Dottie57
Posts: 9187
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm
Location: Earth Northern Hemisphere

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Dottie57 »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 pm
tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Market top confirmed.
Bingo!
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:00 pm
Lump sum Jan 2000 - Aug 2020:
US Stocks: 6.55% CAGR
Long Term Treasury: 7.82% CAGR
Gold: 9.34% CAGR
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: 6.99% CAGR
The problem with your data is that in January 2000, the 10 Year Treasury had an interest rate of 6.66%. (Where have I seen that number before?)

Today it is 0.67%.

Are you really saying that this might produce a return comparable to stocks?
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 15174
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
What a silly choice of words. Irresponsible? Really? Think about that for a little while.

There are other descriptions that could have worked okay in that sentence. But irresponsible?
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
000
Posts: 2771
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:20 pm
000 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:00 pm
Lump sum Jan 2000 - Aug 2020:
US Stocks: 6.55% CAGR
Long Term Treasury: 7.82% CAGR
Gold: 9.34% CAGR
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: 6.99% CAGR
The problem with your data is that in January 2000, the 10 Year Treasury had an interest rate of 6.66%. (Where have I seen that number before?)

Today it is 0.67%.

Are you really saying that this might produce a return comparable to stocks?
I think it is possible. The bond market seems to suggest dismal returns, i.e. if stocks were a sure bet to produce even 1% nominal over the next 10 years, who would buy a 0.67% 10YR Treasury? Who is buying these bonds (other than institutions that can't invest in stocks) if stocks have a high chance of beating their return? Bogleheads are buying them. Financial advisors are putting clients in them. Is it because of intransigence? Maybe. Maybe not.

In any case, I think I ought let the soaring thread remain the domain of the optimists. Good luck to all! May US stocks never see a red day again!
User avatar
jason2459
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 7:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Did I miss anything today? No internet most all day today.

Edit: oh wow! I actually just looked. It was a great day. :moneybag
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Not to pile on, but for folks like myself, the value is less about CAGR and more about avoidance of behavioral errors. I'm not sure how much CAGR this is worth, but it's probably not exaggerating to say it's maybe 1-1.5% per year, perhaps much more as it's really hard to say. Even a single case of avoiding a "sell at the bottom, buy back after the recovery" mistake, is worth just a crazy amount of money. That said, I appear to need maybe 20-25% bonds in my AA to avoid behavioral mistakes, so I consider myself quite fortunate.

This aside, great day for US equities. Let's keep this up through earnings season, 3400 here we come (again)!
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

mrspock wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:34 am
...for folks like myself, the value is less about CAGR and more about avoidance of behavioral errors...
As a family which is partly living off our portfolio, it is not so much avoiding procedural errors as recognizing that stocks may have corrections and bear markets, but life goes on. Bills need to be paid, and if we are in a bear market spending money can come out of something which did not decline in value.

Of course, if I put too much in the bond piggy bank, I lose out on the run-up before the bear market.
rchmx1
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

jason2459 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:10 pm Did I miss anything today? No internet most all day today.

Edit: oh wow! I actually just looked. It was a great day. :moneybag
If you suddenly find that you've lost all access to the internet on all your devices from 9:30-4 EST from this day on, members of this thread are totally not to blame. 8-)
tmcc
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tmcc »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 pm
tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Market top confirmed.
so youre going 100% cash today? nice
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 9115
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

tmcc wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:02 am
whodidntante wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 pm
tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Market top confirmed.
so youre going 100% cash today? nice
Leveraged short would be better. :twisted:
tmcc
Posts: 385
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tmcc »

whodidntante wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:45 am
tmcc wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:02 am
whodidntante wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 pm
tmcc wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:39 pm for not-yet-retirees, to not be 100% stocks is irresponsible.
Market top confirmed.
so youre going 100% cash today? nice
Leveraged short would be better. :twisted:
dont forget to sell at the money calls too
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stocks are creeping upward.

Not exactly soaring.

But it beats the alternative.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Robot Monster
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

"Excuse me, waitress! Another round of stimulus for the table, please?"

Stocks are kinda droopy today, like Dali's melting clocks.

Yet,
"Consumer Confidence in U.S. Posts Biggest Gain in 17 Years"
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
rchmx1
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

This is a real "little engine that could" kinda day.
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

After a lot of overnight gyrations, futures are almost neutral this morning. I would call hopping instead of soaring.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:26 am After a lot of overnight gyrations, futures are almost neutral this morning. I would call hopping instead of soaring.
But the market is charging out of the gate. Up 0.5% at the open.

Not much soaring. But it beats free falling.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
rchmx1
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Green morning?! :o

Was not expecting this considering futures were down around .7% when I last checked late last night.
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:34 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:26 am After a lot of overnight gyrations, futures are almost neutral this morning. I would call hopping instead of soaring.
But the market is charging out of the gate. Up 0.5% at the open.

Not much soaring. But it beats free falling.
Yup, they rang the bell and Mr. Market took off like a frightened songbird. Not a powerful soar, but beats the stuffing out of the alternatives.
lostdog
Posts: 3172
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

:moneybag
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 13840
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

The Dow up 384, S&P up 39, the NAZZ up 146. Sounds like a pretty good day to me!
A fool and his money are good for business.
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Hello February highs, nice to see you again. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 66385
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post and reply regarding a proposed stimulus relief package. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5552
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

mrspock wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:28 am Hello February highs, nice to see you again. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
The TV network morning news shows today seemed to say that the US is in turmoil.

But Mr Market is telling us a different story.

Hoping for new all time highs before the end of 2020.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Keenobserver
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

cooling off
CurlyDave
Posts: 1970
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Keenobserver wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:35 am cooling off
Heating right back up again. Really soaring right now.
Robot Monster
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

U.S. stocks climbed as lawmakers and the White House appeared closer to reaching a fiscal stimulus deal...The S&P 500 Index rose to a two-week high after...a proposal [was made] for $1.5 trillion in pandemic aid. Sentiment was helped by a report that showed U.S. companies added a better-than-forecast 749,000 jobs in September...
Source
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
Keenobserver
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Dropping again :confused
Post Reply