U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Stinky wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:47 pm It’s looking like a melt up to the close.

This is the 8,000th post on this thread. With many more to come I trust.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

ExUS up 1.15%, US up 1.01%. Great day!
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Third Son
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Third Son »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:52 am
Third Son wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:42 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:01 pm
Third Son wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:49 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:18 pm

It's hard to come up with quantitative measures and strictly follow them. The psychological aspect of investing is super tough. Right now, I'm toying around with the idea of using the 20 day moving average for selling TQQQ. My current strategy has been to buy on big dips and sell when I make more than 10%. I recently sold, and it moved up $9 dollars since I sold it. It hasn't had a big dip yet, and the VXN has dropped below 30 and stayed there for a little bit. I feel much more comfortable being in a 3x leveraged ETF when the volatility is low. I did 5 trades with TQQQ with this strategy, so even with short term gains tax on a portion of this strategy, that's still a good after tax return for the taxable portion. It's even better in my roll over IRA. I split the strategy across both and started with 5% of my total portfolio.

For VOO I use the 300 day moving average to sell. I do think there is some truth to realizing higher returns with lower PEs at least for indexes like the S&P 500. That's probably far less the case for QQQ. However, buying back at a lower basis is still a good thing. The market moved way too fast, so I had a lot of wash sales.

I do think the market will tank again in the future. I now feel confident in using the 300 day for VOO, which now only makes up 10% of my asset allocation. I'm not sure if I want to repeat what I did in March, where I sold QQQ when VOO crossed below the 300 day moving average and stayed there for a couple of days. I also bought back both when the S&P 500 hit a PE of 20x. I did this over the course of a couple of days.

Putting this down here makes me think about this stuff. I make a lot of mistakes, and folks here are smart enough to point them out to me. I'm definitely getting out of fixed assets. I have 5% in WFC preferred that I will carry through the end of this year and at least half of next year. I did go the CD route for some of my portfolio and chased yield. I won't be doing that again. Lesson learned. Thankfully, I mostly bought 3 month treasuries that I easily sold early.
oy vey :oops: This is too much work.....
It's all relative. It takes a lot of work to earn the funds to invest in the first place.
Sure... I found the work part quite enjoyable. If you enjoy the complexity of chasing yield more power to you.
There are rules in most work. You CAN get very good at your work, with practice. It's easy to be confident in your knowledge and skill.

Investing is much harder... Systems that seemed to work in the past almost always stop working going forward. Very little makes sense. You try to find patterns with limited data, and hope the rules of the system doesn't change in the middle of your investment period.

I've gotten rich the easy way. Buy and hold has made me wealthy. So far, the only constant has been that the market goes up over time, in the long run. This makes sense to me as billions of humans go to work each day and input their work into the global markets, making them more valuable over time.

If getting rich slow and steady isn't good enough for you, come up with a better system, and try to get rich quick. But using a system (or your gut) DOES risk you making less, and maybe even not getting rich at all. But good luck to you.
I got lucky by not paying any attention to the ebbs and flows of the market during my working life. I didn't even know what a Boglehead was before last year. We lived below our means, dealt with debt as it was needed and kept upping savings every time I got a raise. I put myself through college (first one in my family) and graduate school, raised four successful daughters who are also college educated. I got to retire at 60 using simple rules. Buy and hold was one of them. Those who post here who think they have an edge on the system may be just fooling themselves; or perhaps not. I am in no position to say one way or the other. What I do know is what worked for me. The stock market over the last ten years has certainly helped as well.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:56 pm First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.
I agree. I think the free-falling thread has some value. This is simply a cheering section AFAICT. However, I am a big fan of soaring. One day I hope to transition from doom & gloom to irrational exuberance. Onward and upward!!!
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:57 pm Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:01 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:57 pm Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.
You're probably right. Forward looking.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:57 pm Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
I think it's already expecting that.

Stock market is a strange beast. A stock may double it's earnings, but the stock goes down because everyone expected it to increase it's earnings 2.5x

Stock market may already expect a vaccine, and soon. One could get announced and approved, but the announcement may mention January or something, and the stock market could go down on the good news, because most people expected November.

Or whatever. Hard to predict stock market moves.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Let the good times roll!

We have finished our bathroom remodel this year, and I'm thinking of replacing our beautiful Sumpter Cabinet (out of business) oak dining room set with something else. We have had it 30+ years, and I am just tired of it. I bought most of it on a vacation trip to North Carolina. I feel I have gotten our moneys worth out of it. I doubt I will get much for it, as the furniture is very much out of style.

So I need to start looking for a replacement dining room set that is updated style-wise, and is acceptable to DW. I prefer showing her ideas than her showing me what she has found. :shock:

In 2018 and 2019, we remodeled the kitchen, bought all new appliances, and replaced all flooring on the first floor, and replaced our front door.

So far even with various remodeling expenses we have ended up with a higher portfolio balance, even accounting for our routine living expenses.

It is almost like free money. :D

Our A/C guy says our 17 year-old downstairs heat pump is still good for a bit longer, and our main roof is still in good shape. Neither will last forever, but every year we can squeeze out of each helps.

DW bought gas for the first time since June, so our van is getting very little use, so we are good for a few more years. Fewer than 100,000 miles driven, even though we have had it over 11 years. Though, I wouldn't mind replacing it with MB Sprinter van. I would have to see a really good increase in the portfolio to spend that kind of money. I can't justify the price, yet.

I'm all for doing these type activities in the current market. The higher the market goes, the more I like to do projects around the casa.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain
boogiehead
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by boogiehead »

lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:02 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:01 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:57 pm Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.
You're probably right. Forward looking.
Its funny whenever the stock market goes up one of the mainstream publications (i.e. cnbc, wsj, etc..) always points to progress on some type of vaccine. This could be everyday as I'm sure there is some type of progress everyday on the vaccine. I personally think we can all thank the Fed for single handily stimulating the market with its policies :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:01 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:46 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:11 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:54 pm Based on futures market tonight, it looks like we will be SOARING again tomorrow.

New highs are ahead!
I am impressed. I was worried that there would be a little bit of a pause after last week's action, but here we are again.

Warming up that antigravity machine.
There is a high probability that I will be adding to my holdings tomorrow. Need to spend a little time considering my alternatives.
Don't forget to talk it over with TINA before you make any decisions.

(Just as an aside, I actually have a second cousin named Tina in real life. I haven't seen her in 60 years, but back in my early teens her beauty was very great.)
The Jäger Fund would like to introduced its new members. We are thrilled to have them aboard and excited to see what these new additions can contribute.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

marcopolo wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:25 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:01 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:46 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:11 pm

I am impressed. I was worried that there would be a little bit of a pause after last week's action, but here we are again.

Warming up that antigravity machine.
There is a high probability that I will be adding to my holdings tomorrow. Need to spend a little time considering my alternatives.
Don't forget to talk it over with TINA before you make any decisions.

(Just as an aside, I actually have a second cousin named Tina in real life. I haven't seen her in 60 years, but back in my early teens her beauty was very great.)
The Jäger Fund would like to introduced its new members. We are thrilled to have them aboard and excited to see what these new additions can contribute.
  • iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT)
  • Communication Services Sel Sect SPDR® ETF (XLC)
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLK)
  • Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR® ETF (XLY)
I guess you found a hobby in this iteration of your retirement. :sharebeer
I believe you are correct. I find it very mentally stimulating.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by A_Bond »

Wow. Now, THIS is soaring! :sharebeer
buy. hold. repeat.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

A_Bond wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:10 pm Wow. Now, THIS is soaring! :sharebeer
To infinity and beyond.
tsohg
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tsohg »

And to think, I might have under-bid in the BH 2020 S&P500 guessing contest (3480.0)... :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Futures are up again... the FOMA continues. With JPOW giving his speech, it’s going to be an interesting day.
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Isn't it the general fed tomorrow and the big j p speech on their inflation plan on Thursday?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

mrspock wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:01 pm Futures are up again... the FOMA continues.
FOMO? TINA? Who knows?

Let the party continue.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

bought spy 350 calls. its just too easy to make money nowadays
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:05 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:57 pm Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...
I think it's already expecting that.

Stock market is a strange beast. A stock may double it's earnings, but the stock goes down because everyone expected it to increase it's earnings 2.5x

Stock market may already expect a vaccine, and soon. One could get announced and approved, but the announcement may mention January or something, and the stock market could go down on the good news, because most people expected November.

Or whatever. Hard to predict stock market moves.
I don't think that the market in aggregate is expecting a vaccine soon. Based on the reports from those who actually work on such things, the most plausible timeline for a vaccine being ready to administer on a mass scale is sometime in the summer of 2021, though it could obviously be sooner or later.

But I agree that it's awfully difficult to determine what has been 'priced in' and what hasn't.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets? :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:56 pm First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.
Go back in pages and read that thread from March to April.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TechGuy365 »

lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:31 pm Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets? :D
Glad to hear I’m not the only one. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Steve Reading »

rockstar wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:15 pm It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.
To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

Futures looking strong like bull. Which matters a great deal if you are trading futures tonight. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by inbox788 »

Steve Reading wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:15 pm It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.
To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.
Blow-off top pattern developing?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

Steve Reading wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:15 pm It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.
To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.
While other people are thinking of bringing some chips to the cage, Steve backed up borrowed trucks and loaded up.

I like your gamble.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Possibly another up day.

:moneybag
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:31 pm Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets? :D
There may be some who post on this thread who check futures overnight. Maybe they check multiple times.

Not naming anybody in particular..... :twisted:
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active :P
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by A_Bond »

JoMoney wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:17 am I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active :P
It's like glancing over the morning news, its a nice part of the morning routine.
buy. hold. repeat.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:18 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:31 pm Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets? :D
There may be some who post on this thread who check futures overnight. Maybe they check multiple times.

Not naming anybody in particular..... :twisted:
Need a night light that glows in either shades of green, or red, depending on premarket conditions. In all seriousness, there was something like this!

NEWS WATCH: GADGETS; A Glowing Delphic Orb Says 'Buy,' 'Hold' or 'Panic'
https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/tech ... panic.html
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:34 am Possibly another up day.

:moneybag
We’re into the green for the day.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Stinky wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:20 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:34 am Possibly another up day.

:moneybag
We’re into the green for the day.
Quite the run there in the last couple hours, not a melt-up, but a slow and steady crawl into green. I'm around 200k ahead of where I thought I'd be right now... pretty amazing this index investing/buy n' hold.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

JoMoney wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:17 am I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active :P
I usually do it the opposite way.

If I see this thread (or the other thread) getting a lot of action, THEN I check how the market is doing.

I don't think I've ever checked futures, although I do have a good idea of where S&P 500 is at the end of each day (which is silly I know)
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

It makes no sense to me, but I'll take it. Automatic investments really takes away a lot (but not all) of the stress.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Independent George wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:14 pm It makes no sense to me, but I'll take it. Automatic investments really takes away a lot (but not all) of the stress.
I don't try to make sense of it. I just buy and have a plan to sell if it crosses below a certain level. I also have a plan to buy back in. That's all I can really do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TechGuy365 »

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

TechGuy365 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:33 am Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
S&P just cracked 3400, and is now half way to 3500.

Let the good times roll!
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TheTimeLord
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Post by TheTimeLord »

TechGuy365 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:33 am Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.
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TheTimeLord
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Post by TheTimeLord »

Stinky wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:35 am
TechGuy365 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:33 am Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
S&P just cracked 3400, and is now half way to 3500.

Let the good times roll!
That makes me think of a specific Sean Connery movie.
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lostdog
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Post by lostdog »

:moneybag

you guys/gals with QQQ must be :D
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jason2459
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Post by jason2459 »

I thought it was humourous when talking heads were talking about the DOWs price yesterday. In the morning the DJIA was up and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings. Then later that day it was down and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings... Cracks me up when they have no clue about something and totally say the same things conflicting themselves.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:40 am I thought it was humourous when talking heads were talking about the DOWs price yesterday. In the morning the DJIA was up and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings. Then later that day it was down and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings... Cracks me up when they have no clue about something and totally say the same things conflicting themselves.
It would be simpler if the talking heads would say “there were more buyers than sellers (at the current market price)” when the market moves up.

And the reverse when the market moves down.

But that would be too simple, wouldn’t it? :twisted:
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Hyperchicken
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Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

Man I did not have this much itch to sell some of my holdings in MGK in March as I do now. Good times are a test in their own way.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:36 am
TechGuy365 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:33 am Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.
I know -- life is tough. But I think I can learn to live with new all time highs. :moneybag :moneybag
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:13 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:36 am
TechGuy365 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:33 am Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!
Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.
I know -- life is tough. But I think I can learn to live with new all time highs. :moneybag :moneybag
I can if I have to, but it will reduce my returns.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Just wait till tomorrow. Mr. J Powell to lay out how they plan to control things...
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