U.S. stocks continue to soar!

[HomerJ]

First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.

[mrspock]

It’s looking like a melt up to the close.

This is the 8,000th post on this thread. With many more to come I trust.

Swooooosh like the Nike logo .

[Stef]

ExUS up 1.15%, US up 1.01%. Great day!

[Third Son]

It's hard to come up with quantitative measures and strictly follow them. The psychological aspect of investing is super tough. Right now, I'm toying around with the idea of using the 20 day moving average for selling TQQQ. My current strategy has been to buy on big dips and sell when I make more than 10%. I recently sold, and it moved up $9 dollars since I sold it. It hasn't had a big dip yet, and the VXN has dropped below 30 and stayed there for a little bit. I feel much more comfortable being in a 3x leveraged ETF when the volatility is low. I did 5 trades with TQQQ with this strategy, so even with short term gains tax on a portion of this strategy, that's still a good after tax return for the taxable portion. It's even better in my roll over IRA. I split the strategy across both and started with 5% of my total portfolio.

For VOO I use the 300 day moving average to sell. I do think there is some truth to realizing higher returns with lower PEs at least for indexes like the S&P 500. That's probably far less the case for QQQ. However, buying back at a lower basis is still a good thing. The market moved way too fast, so I had a lot of wash sales.

I do think the market will tank again in the future. I now feel confident in using the 300 day for VOO, which now only makes up 10% of my asset allocation. I'm not sure if I want to repeat what I did in March, where I sold QQQ when VOO crossed below the 300 day moving average and stayed there for a couple of days. I also bought back both when the S&P 500 hit a PE of 20x. I did this over the course of a couple of days.

Putting this down here makes me think about this stuff. I make a lot of mistakes, and folks here are smart enough to point them out to me. I'm definitely getting out of fixed assets. I have 5% in WFC preferred that I will carry through the end of this year and at least half of next year. I did go the CD route for some of my portfolio and chased yield. I won't be doing that again. Lesson learned. Thankfully, I mostly bought 3 month treasuries that I easily sold early.

oy vey This is too much work.....

It's all relative. It takes a lot of work to earn the funds to invest in the first place.

Sure... I found the work part quite enjoyable. If you enjoy the complexity of chasing yield more power to you.

There are rules in most work. You CAN get very good at your work, with practice. It's easy to be confident in your knowledge and skill.

Investing is much harder... Systems that seemed to work in the past almost always stop working going forward. Very little makes sense. You try to find patterns with limited data, and hope the rules of the system doesn't change in the middle of your investment period.

I've gotten rich the easy way. Buy and hold has made me wealthy. So far, the only constant has been that the market goes up over time, in the long run. This makes sense to me as billions of humans go to work each day and input their work into the global markets, making them more valuable over time.

If getting rich slow and steady isn't good enough for you, come up with a better system, and try to get rich quick. But using a system (or your gut) DOES risk you making less, and maybe even not getting rich at all. But good luck to you.

I got lucky by not paying any attention to the ebbs and flows of the market during my working life. I didn't even know what a Boglehead was before last year. We lived below our means, dealt with debt as it was needed and kept upping savings every time I got a raise. I put myself through college (first one in my family) and graduate school, raised four successful daughters who are also college educated. I got to retire at 60 using simple rules. Buy and hold was one of them. Those who post here who think they have an edge on the system may be just fooling themselves; or perhaps not. I am in no position to say one way or the other. What I do know is what worked for me. The stock market over the last ten years has certainly helped as well.

[lostdog]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

[Doom&Gloom]

First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.

I agree. I think the free-falling thread has some value. This is simply a cheering section AFAICT. However, I am a big fan of soaring. One day I hope to transition from doom & gloom to irrational exuberance. Onward and upward!!!

[Stinky]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.

[lostdog]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.

You're probably right. Forward looking.

[HomerJ]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

I think it's already expecting that.

Stock market is a strange beast. A stock may double it's earnings, but the stock goes down because everyone expected it to increase it's earnings 2.5x

Stock market may already expect a vaccine, and soon. One could get announced and approved, but the announcement may mention January or something, and the stock market could go down on the good news, because most people expected November.

Or whatever. Hard to predict stock market moves.

[Broken Man 1999]

Let the good times roll!

We have finished our bathroom remodel this year, and I'm thinking of replacing our beautiful Sumpter Cabinet (out of business) oak dining room set with something else. We have had it 30+ years, and I am just tired of it. I bought most of it on a vacation trip to North Carolina. I feel I have gotten our moneys worth out of it. I doubt I will get much for it, as the furniture is very much out of style.

So I need to start looking for a replacement dining room set that is updated style-wise, and is acceptable to DW. I prefer showing her ideas than her showing me what she has found.

In 2018 and 2019, we remodeled the kitchen, bought all new appliances, and replaced all flooring on the first floor, and replaced our front door.

So far even with various remodeling expenses we have ended up with a higher portfolio balance, even accounting for our routine living expenses.

It is almost like free money.

Our A/C guy says our 17 year-old downstairs heat pump is still good for a bit longer, and our main roof is still in good shape. Neither will last forever, but every year we can squeeze out of each helps.

DW bought gas for the first time since June, so our van is getting very little use, so we are good for a few more years. Fewer than 100,000 miles driven, even though we have had it over 11 years. Though, I wouldn't mind replacing it with MB Sprinter van. I would have to see a really good increase in the portfolio to spend that kind of money. I can't justify the price, yet.

I'm all for doing these type activities in the current market. The higher the market goes, the more I like to do projects around the casa.

Broken Man 1999

[boogiehead]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

Half of your statement is already happening.

It’s contributing to current soaring I think.

You're probably right. Forward looking.

Its funny whenever the stock market goes up one of the mainstream publications (i.e. cnbc, wsj, etc..) always points to progress on some type of vaccine. This could be everyday as I'm sure there is some type of progress everyday on the vaccine. I personally think we can all thank the Fed for single handily stimulating the market with its policies

[marcopolo]

Based on futures market tonight, it looks like we will be SOARING again tomorrow.

New highs are ahead!

I am impressed. I was worried that there would be a little bit of a pause after last week's action, but here we are again.

Warming up that antigravity machine.

There is a high probability that I will be adding to my holdings tomorrow. Need to spend a little time considering my alternatives.

Don't forget to talk it over with TINA before you make any decisions.

(Just as an aside, I actually have a second cousin named Tina in real life. I haven't seen her in 60 years, but back in my early teens her beauty was very great.)

The Jäger Fund would like to introduced its new members. We are thrilled to have them aboard and excited to see what these new additions can contribute.

• iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT)

• Communication Services Sel Sect SPDR^® ETF (XLC)

• Technology Select Sector SPDR^® ETF (XLK)

• Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR^® ETF (XLY)

I guess you found a hobby in this iteration of your retirement.

[TheTimeLord]

I am impressed. I was worried that there would be a little bit of a pause after last week's action, but here we are again.

Warming up that antigravity machine.

There is a high probability that I will be adding to my holdings tomorrow. Need to spend a little time considering my alternatives.

Don't forget to talk it over with TINA before you make any decisions.

(Just as an aside, I actually have a second cousin named Tina in real life. I haven't seen her in 60 years, but back in my early teens her beauty was very great.)

The Jäger Fund would like to introduced its new members. We are thrilled to have them aboard and excited to see what these new additions can contribute.

• iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT)

• Communication Services Sel Sect SPDR^® ETF (XLC)

• Technology Select Sector SPDR^® ETF (XLK)

• Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR^® ETF (XLY)

I guess you found a hobby in this iteration of your retirement.

I believe you are correct. I find it very mentally stimulating.

[A_Bond]

Wow. Now, THIS is soaring!

[rockstar]

Wow. Now, THIS is soaring!

To infinity and beyond.

[tsohg]

And to think, I might have under-bid in the BH 2020 S&P500 guessing contest (3480.0)...

[mrspock]

Futures are up again... the FOMA continues. With JPOW giving his speech, it’s going to be an interesting day.

[jason2459]

Isn't it the general fed tomorrow and the big j p speech on their inflation plan on Thursday?

[Stinky]

Futures are up again... the FOMA continues.

FOMO? TINA? Who knows?

Let the party continue.

[bugleheadd]

bought spy 350 calls. its just too easy to make money nowadays

[willthrill81]

Just wait until a vaccine is approved and covid cases start decreasing...

I think it's already expecting that.

Stock market is a strange beast. A stock may double it's earnings, but the stock goes down because everyone expected it to increase it's earnings 2.5x

Stock market may already expect a vaccine, and soon. One could get announced and approved, but the announcement may mention January or something, and the stock market could go down on the good news, because most people expected November.

Or whatever. Hard to predict stock market moves.

I don't think that the market in aggregate is expecting a vaccine soon. Based on the reports from those who actually work on such things, the most plausible timeline for a vaccine being ready to administer on a mass scale is sometime in the summer of 2021, though it could obviously be sooner or later.

But I agree that it's awfully difficult to determine what has been 'priced in' and what hasn't.

[lostdog]

Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets?

[lostdog]

First! For 8001!

Edit: I like the free-falling one better. It shows how nobody can predict the future.

Go back in pages and read that thread from March to April.

[TechGuy365]

Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets?

Glad to hear I’m not the only one.

[rockstar]

It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.

[Steve Reading]

It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.

To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.

[whodidntante]

Futures looking strong like bull. Which matters a great deal if you are trading futures tonight.

[inbox788]

It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.

To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.

Blow-off top pattern developing?

[whodidntante]

It's odd that the market hasn't pulled back by now.

To me, the market still looks rather attractive.

You’d need about a 14-30% additional rise in stock prices before the equity risk premium reverts back to more normal, historical levels.

While other people are thinking of bringing some chips to the cage, Steve backed up borrowed trucks and loaded up.

I like your gamble.

[lostdog]

Possibly another up day.

[Stinky]

Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets?

There may be some who post on this thread who check futures overnight. Maybe they check multiple times.

Not naming anybody in particular.....

[JoMoney]

I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active

[A_Bond]

I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active

It's like glancing over the morning news, its a nice part of the morning routine.

[Robot Monster]

Who is willing to admit when they wake up in the middle of the night, they grab their phone and check the premarkets?

There may be some who post on this thread who check futures overnight. Maybe they check multiple times.

Not naming anybody in particular.....

Need a night light that glows in either shades of green, or red, depending on premarket conditions. In all seriousness, there was something like this!

NEWS WATCH: GADGETS; A Glowing Delphic Orb Says 'Buy,' 'Hold' or 'Panic'
https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/tech ... panic.html

[Stinky]

Possibly another up day.

We’re into the green for the day.

[mrspock]

Possibly another up day.

We’re into the green for the day.

Quite the run there in the last couple hours, not a melt-up, but a slow and steady crawl into green. I'm around 200k ahead of where I thought I'd be right now... pretty amazing this index investing/buy n' hold.

[HomerJ]

I don't keep a phone/computer/tv or any distractions in the bedroom... but when I do decide to get up in the morning, checking what the futures are doing before the market opens is as routine as my morning coffee. I'm not sure why, there is nothing the market could be doing that will cause me to do anything, I think it's mostly to see whether or not this thread will be active

I usually do it the opposite way.

If I see this thread (or the other thread) getting a lot of action, THEN I check how the market is doing.

I don't think I've ever checked futures, although I do have a good idea of where S&P 500 is at the end of each day (which is silly I know)

[Independent George]

It makes no sense to me, but I'll take it. Automatic investments really takes away a lot (but not all) of the stress.

[rockstar]

It makes no sense to me, but I'll take it. Automatic investments really takes away a lot (but not all) of the stress.

I don't try to make sense of it. I just buy and have a plan to sell if it crosses below a certain level. I also have a plan to buy back in. That's all I can really do.

[TechGuy365]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

[Stinky]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

S&P just cracked 3400, and is now half way to 3500.

Let the good times roll!

[TheTimeLord]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.

[TheTimeLord]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as $1.44 (0.67 expected). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/salesfo ... -2021.html

Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

S&P just cracked 3400, and is now half way to 3500.

Let the good times roll!

That makes me think of a specific Sean Connery movie.

[lostdog]

you guys/gals with QQQ must be

[jason2459]

I thought it was humourous when talking heads were talking about the DOWs price yesterday. In the morning the DJIA was up and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings. Then later that day it was down and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings... Cracks me up when they have no clue about something and totally say the same things conflicting themselves.

[Stinky]

I thought it was humourous when talking heads were talking about the DOWs price yesterday. In the morning the DJIA was up and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings. Then later that day it was down and they were saying it was because of the shake up in holdings... Cracks me up when they have no clue about something and totally say the same things conflicting themselves.

It would be simpler if the talking heads would say “there were more buyers than sellers (at the current market price)” when the market moves up.

And the reverse when the market moves down.

But that would be too simple, wouldn’t it?

[Hyperchicken]

Man I did not have this much itch to sell some of my holdings in MGK in March as I do now. Good times are a test in their own way.

[CurlyDave]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.

I know -- life is tough. But I think I can learn to live with new all time highs.

[TheTimeLord]

Salesforce (CRM) up 26% today on earning surprise and being added as a Dow Jones component!! Last night they announced EPS as 0.94 (0.19 expected). Entire Nasdaq is rocking too. Another exciting green day!

Sigh, repositioning is easier when the market moves in both directions with an upward bias, instead of straight up. But I am making do.

I know -- life is tough. But I think I can learn to live with new all time highs.

I can if I have to, but it will reduce my returns.

[jason2459]

Just wait till tomorrow. Mr. J Powell to lay out how they plan to control things...