U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:45 am
dogagility wrote: Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:10 pm
I could, but I won't because this thread isn't about the Japanese stock market. :beer
If I say historically my house has never caught on fire, and someone else points out that other houses have, that information would still be relevant to my house's fire risk--that is unless I can show how my house is intrinsically different than the other houses...perhaps my house isn't made of wood, it's made of concrete...that's an intrinsic difference. Is there such an intrinsic difference in the U.S. stock market than in other markets? What is that difference, exactly?
Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
Not to mention, buying in at 23,000 in 1987 would have worked out okay for most investors... Unless one was 100% stocks I guess.

A 50/50 Japan investor would have rebalanced on the way up and locked in most of those gains, so even after the crash, they would have been in okay shape.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

McGilicutty wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:51 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:25 am
H-Town wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:58 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:53 am
Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:22 am Futures soaring this morning.

Big day ahead.
1% qualifies as a big day?
Depends on who you asked. It could mean a $10k swing to many on here.
I wonder how many weeks/months of expenses that works out to.
$10K? On Bogleheads? That's got to be at least 3 years of expenses.
And that's before switching to the austere budget in hard times.
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McGilicutty
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:23 pm You could have used that same exact argument for the Japanese stock market pre-1990. Perhaps people did in fact use your argument to justify buying into the Nikkei even after it appeared super expensive (CAPE at nosebleed 90). Just using your argument alone, without any other consideration, I suggest can be dangerous. Though perhaps you do keep an eye on the good old CAPE, and have other considerations at hand, in which case I duly apologize.
As Fat Joe said in "What's Luv", "might be the chain or the whip, I don't know what it is."

Maybe it's California? Maybe it's Silicon Valley? Maybe it's our immigration system (does Japan allow immigrants?)? Maybe it's the massive QE employed by the Fed every time the market goes down?

Who knows, but something has caused massive outperformance of U.S. vs International.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:45 am
dogagility wrote: Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:10 pm
I could, but I won't because this thread isn't about the Japanese stock market. :beer
If I say historically my house has never caught on fire, and someone else points out that other houses have, that information would still be relevant to my house's fire risk--that is unless I can show how my house is intrinsically different than the other houses...perhaps my house isn't made of wood, it's made of concrete...that's an intrinsic difference. Is there such an intrinsic difference in the U.S. stock market than in other markets? What is that difference, exactly?
Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

McGilicutty wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:06 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:23 pm You could have used that same exact argument for the Japanese stock market pre-1990. Perhaps people did in fact use your argument to justify buying into the Nikkei even after it appeared super expensive (CAPE at nosebleed 90). Just using your argument alone, without any other consideration, I suggest can be dangerous. Though perhaps you do keep an eye on the good old CAPE, and have other considerations at hand, in which case I duly apologize.
As Fat Joe said in "What's Luv", "might be the chain or the whip, I don't know what it is."

Maybe it's California? Maybe it's Silicon Valley? Maybe it's our immigration system (does Japan allow immigrants?)? Maybe it's the massive QE employed by the Fed every time the market goes down?

Who knows, but something has caused massive outperformance of U.S. vs International.
I'm not addressing outperformance. See my prior post in this thread.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
cusetownusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cusetownusa »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:02 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:45 am

If I say historically my house has never caught on fire, and someone else points out that other houses have, that information would still be relevant to my house's fire risk--that is unless I can show how my house is intrinsically different than the other houses...perhaps my house isn't made of wood, it's made of concrete...that's an intrinsic difference. Is there such an intrinsic difference in the U.S. stock market than in other markets? What is that difference, exactly?
Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
Not to mention, buying in at 23,000 in 1987 would have worked out okay for most investors... Unless one was 100% stocks I guess.

A 50/50 Japan investor would have rebalanced on the way up and locked in most of those gains, so even after the crash, they would have been in okay shape.
Plus, does this chart include reinvesting dividends? Not sure how much of an impact that would be.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:45 am

If I say historically my house has never caught on fire, and someone else points out that other houses have, that information would still be relevant to my house's fire risk--that is unless I can show how my house is intrinsically different than the other houses...perhaps my house isn't made of wood, it's made of concrete...that's an intrinsic difference. Is there such an intrinsic difference in the U.S. stock market than in other markets? What is that difference, exactly?
Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
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Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:42 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am

Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
Every investor decides for themselves what risk they are willing to take. My take on it is that US economy is more likely to collapse and not recover for extended period of time rather than asteroid hitting the planet. But if you are worried about asteroids I suggest you build a bunker. As for nuclear war, I suggest you invest in emerging markets, guns, ammo, food and water.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Blue456 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:04 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:42 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am

That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
Every investor decides for themselves what risk they are willing to take. My take on it is that US economy is more likely to collapse and not recover for extended period of time rather than asteroid hitting the planet. But if you are worried about asteroids I suggest you build a bunker. As for nuclear war, I suggest you invest in emerging markets, guns, ammo, food and water.
I agree and much easier to plan for. But just listing potential problems without potential solutions seems to me to just increase anxiety unnecessarily. So we may have a potential Japan like crash okay, then what is your point in telling me this, that I should buy more bonds, hold gold, dump stocks? How does this potential issue change the thesis for an investor and should they take action because of it? What I try to guard against in my investing is implementing solutions to address outcomes with a 1% probability (in my view) that would negatively impact the other 99% of outcomes. To me there are times when the cost of insurance is just too great.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:42 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
BW1985 wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am

Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then yes I'd be concerned.
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
I'm saying that U.S. stocks are riskier than they appear just based on historical performance and if a person doesn't understand how much of a break the U.S. market could have from past performance, I think they could potentially add too much risk to their portfolio.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:21 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:42 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am

That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out. The Nikkei is at 22,478 today.

My only point is that if we just look at the historical behavior of the S&P and use it as a prediction of what to expect in the future, we could potentially be in for a mighty Japanese-style surprise!

Image
I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
I'm saying that U.S. stocks are riskier than they appear just based on historical performance and if a person doesn't understand how much of a break the U.S. market could have from past performance, I think they could potentially add too much risk to their portfolio.
So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk? What percentage wait do you put on the Japanese style outcome? What would be the cost to protecting against this if it didn't occur? You have identified a potential problem, now we need to know the likelihood, the solution and the cost of the solution if the problem does not manifest. Personally, I would be far more likely to take action if the likelihood was 20% versus say 1%.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:35 am So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk?
VTWAX and chill.
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:39 am
That, my friend, is a credible distinction. But just look at the graph. Nevermind the top...imagine buying in at 23,000 in 1987. How overvalued did it seem then? Perhaps not so much. A person buying in at that point, using the prior history of the Nikkei as reference, would be mightily stunned by the way things turned out.
You're just saying that. If you buy a stock that has a P/E of 100 (or infinity), you can go around all day saying "I didn't think it was overvalued." In practice, it depends. It could work out. Your opinion is as good as the next guy's.

If you're an index fund investor where the leading whole index has a P/E of 75 or 100, you can take some of the blame for that.
viewtopic.php?t=284851

The P/E of the entire Nasdaq 100 was 100 in 1999. It really was. And that was when the cost of capital wasn't zero.

So anyway, all I can say is that personally I'm not 100% US equities, but you could be. Probably not the end of the world.
A fool and your money are soon partners
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Stef wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:37 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:35 am So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk?
VTWAX and chill.
I think my point is being missed. It is not about whether or not a Japanese style market can occur in the U.S., sure it can and has been discussed for a couple decades. The issue is the probability of it occurring and whether or not it is worth the cost to take steps to mitigate that possibility.
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Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:35 am
So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk? What percentage wait do you put on the Japanese style outcome? What would be the cost to protecting against this if it didn't occur? You have identified a potential problem, now we need to know the likelihood, the solution and the cost of the solution if the problem does not manifest. Personally, I would be far more likely to take action if the likelihood was 20% versus say 1%.
Nobody knows that. You are making bet on SP500, I am making bet on Vanguard Total World Stock. Now this is US stocks thread so lets drink to that :beer. I do hold 60% US equities and I want US to outperform international for as long as possible :).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

The discussion is getting derailed on a risk assessment comparison with the Japanese market.

Please stay on-topic, which is the US stock market (increasing trend).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:35 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:21 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:42 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:10 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:47 am

I am at a loss what the point you think you are making is beyond investing requires the investor to take risk with the possibility of negative outcomes.
The point I am making is the danger of looking at the historical behavior of the S&P as a predictor of future outcome. See dogagility's post above where he/she says, "As a long-term investor, the graph I find more useful is my avatar. It's the total return of the US stock market since 1871. #ThisTimeIsNotDifferent". That's where this discussion started and is what I'm addressing.
And we could be in for a nuclear war, an uncontrollable pandemic in the world's food sources or an asteroid strike. So how do we decide which of these potential events should effect our investing decision and to what degree? How do you decide which outcome is more likely yours or Dogagility's? How many years before the crash should Japanese investors have started withdrawing money from their market? Not asking what is the potential problem, asking what is the point?
I'm saying that U.S. stocks are riskier than they appear just based on historical performance and if a person doesn't understand how much of a break the U.S. market could have from past performance, I think they could potentially add too much risk to their portfolio.
So what steps do they take to mitigate this risk? What percentage wait do you put on the Japanese style outcome? What would be the cost to protecting against this if it didn't occur? You have identified a potential problem, now we need to know the likelihood, the solution and the cost of the solution if the problem does not manifest. Personally, I would be far more likely to take action if the likelihood was 20% versus say 1%.
It's impossible to know if a sea change could occur or the likelihood of such. My own personal belief is people shouldn't take more risk then they need to in the face of such an unknown, but people will have different views on this. I ascribe to the notion people should have only as much risk in their portfolio to meet their financial need and no more, but again, we all have different views.

I just want people to have a realistic assessment of the risk they take when they buy stocks. I think the historical chart of the U.S. market makes it seem stocks can only go up, that a potential thing like what happened in Japan is altogether impossible, and I think that is a dangerous falsehood.

Sorry...only saw Mod's msg now...Will no longer discuss this.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:22 am Futures soaring this morning.

Big day ahead.
And here we are midday in the doldrums...basically flat...The stock market can be such a tease sometimes...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MDfan »

Apple closing some of its stores again is not good news.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

MDfan wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:15 pm Apple closing some of its stores again is not good news.
Yes, they're doing this because of rising levels of Covid-19, and unsurprisingly Disney (a highly covid sensitive stock) is taking it on the chin, down 2% to $115 levels...a price I remember so well...

Jim Cramer: “I don’t know when they’re going to solve it, and people are going to go back to Disney. And when they do, I don’t think you’ll get it for $115 or $120,” he said.
Feb 26th article
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/jim-cra ... to-me.html
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MDfan »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:36 pm
MDfan wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:15 pm Apple closing some of its stores again is not good news.
Yes, they're doing this because of rising levels of Covid-19, and unsurprisingly Disney (a highly covid sensitive stock) is taking it on the chin, down 2% to $115 levels...a price I remember so well...

Jim Cramer: “I don’t know when they’re going to solve it, and people are going to go back to Disney. And when they do, I don’t think you’ll get it for $115 or $120,” he said.
Feb 26th article
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/jim-cra ... to-me.html
Disney is getting a lot of pushback on its planned July reopening in CA. If we have to start shutting things down again, all bets are off.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:22 am Futures soaring this morning.

Big day ahead.
Oh well. Futures didn’t do a very good job of predicting the market close today.

On to next week!
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Tim_in_GA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tim_in_GA »

Wake me up when the S&P500 hits 3500.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Tim_in_GA wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:06 pm Wake me up when the S&P500 hits 3500.
4000 for me... I'm retiring when it hits that (or in 4 years, whichever comes first).
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

Tim_in_GA wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:06 pm Wake me up when the S&P500 hits 3500.
Here's to hoping you have a short nap. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by johnegonpdx »

"hang on lady, we're going for a ride . . ."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vwgrrc »

CA, TX, FL case numbers look very concerning now, and several other smaller states. More likely than not we're going to see state-specified shutdown very soon. I don't think that's fully priced in at this level. Hold on tight folks!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

vwgrrc wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:26 am CA, TX, FL case numbers look very concerning now, and several other smaller states. More likely than not we're going to see state-specified shutdown very soon. I don't think that's fully priced in at this level. Hold on tight folks!
What do you think has been fully priced in?

You need to get away from first level thinking.

More lockdown = another 3 trillion of non inflationary money printing = good for stockmarket.

I’m just making that up, but my point is, nobody knows anything
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

minimalistmarc wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:18 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:26 am CA, TX, FL case numbers look very concerning now, and several other smaller states. More likely than not we're going to see state-specified shutdown very soon. I don't think that's fully priced in at this level. Hold on tight folks!
What do you think has been fully priced in?

You need to get away from first level thinking.

More lockdown = another 3 trillion of non inflationary money printing = good for stockmarket.

I’m just making that up, but my point is, nobody knows anything
+1

-TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

What happened to MrSpock's post that previously occupied this space?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:24 pm What happened to MrSpock's post that previously occupied this space?
Moved it to its own thread, figured it was overloaded/off topic for this thread.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Nasdaq in the lead! Small Cap trailing in 4th place. Existing Home Sales report coming up at 10 a.m. et, the sole market moving indicator of the day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
Well nuts!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
Where are you getting your reading? I see green...
https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Gufomel »

Interesting that futures were up about 0.7% right into open, but S&P opened down about 0.3%.

International looks to be having its rare day in the sun. Or perhaps not too rare going forward.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:49 am
Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
Where are you getting your reading? I see green...
https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
That’s a futures link.

Kinda irrelevant while the market is open. At least, I don’t pay any attention to it until late this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silk McCue »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:49 am
Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
Where are you getting your reading? I see green...
https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
You are linked to the futures TAB of that site. No idea why it is showing what it is showing. Try using this tab on that same page that shows actuals.

https://m.investing.com/indices/

Cheers
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:53 am
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:49 am
Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
Where are you getting your reading? I see green...
https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
That’s a futures link.

Kinda irrelevant while the market is open. At least, I don’t pay any attention to it until late this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
Yes, sorry, I just realized that.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

It's only down a little now...I think everyone is waiting on the Existing Home Sales report coming in at 10am et...

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull ... ek.asp#top
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
S&P is up now.

All is well with the world.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:30 am
Stef wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 am Time to start this thread after a day off.

Futures up.
Too soon, -0.45% now.
S&P is up now.

All is well with the world.
Well, a few moments ago the S&P was at exactly 0%...while the 10-yr, TIPS, and gold are all up...not exactly a bull market moment. Nasdaq is up, though.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

At this moment, the Curly family portfolio is once again at a new record high.

Of course that may change next month when I pull out enough to pay my 2019 taxes...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:28 am At this moment, the Curly family portfolio is once again at a new record high.

Of course that may change next month when I pull out enough to pay my 2019 taxes...
It may also change if markets plummet, but it won't matter unless you sell. I wonder how healthy it is to be so absorbed with daily price movements if what is only important is the price you buy and the price you sell.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:16 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:28 am At this moment, the Curly family portfolio is once again at a new record high.

Of course that may change next month when I pull out enough to pay my 2019 taxes...
It may also change if markets plummet, but it won't matter unless you sell. I wonder how healthy it is to be so absorbed with daily price movements if what is only important is the price you buy and the price you sell.
For me, it is more the entertainment value than anything else. I can watch the markets for free. As a retired old geezer recovering from some health issues, it beats daytime TV.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty »

Not a bad day ... S&P 500 up 0.65% ... Nasdaq up 1.11%
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:55 pm Not a bad day ... S&P 500 up 0.65% ... Nasdaq up 1.11%
A more normal day, hopefully we can build upon this and inch our way back to 3200, and beyond.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:55 pm Not a bad day ... S&P 500 up 0.65% ... Nasdaq up 1.11%
Larry was up 1.49% today. :greedy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Nasdaq at record high.

S&P up 1%.

What’s not to like?
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