U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

Man, this is one of those times when I'm glad all of my investments are automatic. I thought the March drop was crazy (the world was not ending), and I think this rally is even crazier (lots of folks are still out of work, and businesses are in debt to their eyeballs). Fortunately, I'm still 10-20 years from retirement, so it's all pretty academic to me.
Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

S&P 500 seems to run in tandem with global money supply. If they keep printing, which they will, markets will go up up up
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Corsair wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:38 am S&P 500 seems to run in tandem with global money supply. If they keep printing, which they will, markets will go up up up

Long term, there is high probability markets will go up but expect a lot of up and down volatility along the way. Same as it ever was.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

The S&P is over 3,000 now and the Dow is back over 25,000. The Nazz is at 9,450. Not bad! Good to see a swift recovery in the U.S. Stock Market. Hopefully the economy can follow suit.
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TechGuy365
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TechGuy365 »

fundseeker wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:00 am Are you all watching and cheering on the stock market because you are taking some action?

Are you going to watch it daily until retirement or death just because you're interested? If you've set your AA and are staying the course, daily changes in the market do not matter.
It's like watch sports. Sports doesn't really matter, and you can't take any actions on it other than eating chips and scream at the TV. Yet billions of people do it.

This this much more fun and exciting than watching sports, especially now that there is no sports. It's like my team (The Bulls) is always winning over the other team (The Bears) over long term. Before anybody piles on, I know these are 2 sports here. :D
cpan00b
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cpan00b »

Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...

The biggest problem indeed.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
I agree.

Also, next time there’s a dip in the market (as there will inevitably be), don’t click the “sell” button.

If you don’t click “sell”, you won’t need to worry about when to buy.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
cpan00b
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cpan00b »

Stinky wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am
mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
I agree.

Also, next time there’s a dip in the market (as there will inevitably be), don’t click the “sell” button.

If you don’t click “sell”, you won’t need to worry about when to buy.
Thanks, I held on through the March and April [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] (actually purchased some more equities near the bottom) but rather sold on the way up about a week or two ago. Thought S&P @ 2950 was too good to be true when it hit last week to derisk but it appears the market keeps on chugging up despite what I perceived to be poor economic conditions for the country as a whole. I'm still hesitant to buy in now though since I should stick to what I thought a week or two ago.
InvestingGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by InvestingGeek »

Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
What percentage of your portfolio is contributions made since Feb. 19, 2020?
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

I'm still down 8% or so on the year, and anchoring bias weighs on me. Fear of losses makes me want to reduce my AA. FOMO makes me want to increase my AA. Confirmation bias enhances my personal interpretation of the market narrative, that's probably significantly misguided.

As far as my investing process is concerned, it's great that the legitimate default is "steady as she goes." I rebalanced when my bands were violated, and kept investing.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:40 am Thanks, I held on through the March and April [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] (actually purchased some more equities near the bottom) but rather sold on the way up about a week or two ago. Thought S&P @ 2950 was too good to be true when it hit last week to derisk but it appears the market keeps on chugging up despite what I perceived to be poor economic conditions for the country as a whole. I'm still hesitant to buy in now though since I should stick to what I thought a week or two ago.
If you felt the need to de-risk, then you've accomplished your goal; just stick to your new AA. Don't sell or buy expecting to profit off of the volatility.
BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:40 am
Stinky wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 am
mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
I agree.

Also, next time there’s a dip in the market (as there will inevitably be), don’t click the “sell” button.

If you don’t click “sell”, you won’t need to worry about when to buy.
Thanks, I held on through the March and April [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] (actually purchased some more equities near the bottom) but rather sold on the way up about a week or two ago. Thought S&P @ 2950 was too good to be true when it hit last week to derisk but it appears the market keeps on chugging up despite what I perceived to be poor economic conditions for the country as a whole. I'm still hesitant to buy in now though since I should stick to what I thought a week or two ago.
When you sell and deviate from your AA you're gambling that the price will go lower. Gambling over the long run the house usually wins.
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpsetRaptor »

Right now: Bears befuddled.

Some point in the future: A vaccine is approved, the market yawns, bulls befuddled.

Any point in time: Buy-and-holders just go about their day.
RiotAct
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RiotAct »

Independent George wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:05 am Man, this is one of those times when I'm glad all of my investments are automatic. I thought the March drop was crazy (the world was not ending), and I think this rally is even crazier (lots of folks are still out of work, and businesses are in debt to their eyeballs). Fortunately, I'm still 10-20 years from retirement, so it's all pretty academic to me.
My thoughts exactly. Retail and discretionary spending are in some trouble, I think, especially after the stimulus “funny money” runs dry.
cpan00b
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cpan00b »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:04 am
mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
What percentage of your portfolio is contributions made since Feb. 19, 2020?
Interesting question - I hadn't done the analysis until just now.

At February 19 I was roughly 80% equities and 20% bonds across my accounts.

Taxable brokerage:
Looks like I purchased a total of $17,411 of VTSAX between February 20 and March 2nd. Notably all of this was at a HIGHER price than VTSAX is currently at (average price I paid for those shares was $77.53 and the price of VTSAX was $72.63 as of Friday's close). I also purchased $5071 of VTIAX, which fortunately averaged out at $24.37/share which is close to what the current price is. Some of these purchases were because I still had auto weekly invest on and some were because I jumped in too eagerly and purchased haphazardly (and too early). A lesson I learned is that I should have had a more controlled rebalancing strategy after hitting certain 5% bands, etc. As you can see I stopped investing ANY NEW payroll money after March 2nd.

401K:
Between March 9th and May 18th, I rebalanced by selling my bonds and purchasing a total of $52,000 worth of Fidelty Total US at an average price of $72.18 and sold a total of $59,247 at an average price of $82.01. If I calculate the gain on this buy and sell transaction for the shares comprising the $52k, I only profited about $7k on the transaction.

So in summary, I went from an allocation of 80-20 to about 95-5. Between Feb 20 and March 2nd I invested a total of $22.5k, all at a relatively high price. I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd from my paychecks and therefore did not invest about $46k in cash in what would have been lower prices and which would have increased in value through now had I invested automatically each paycheck.

I did some rebalancing in my 401k which only resulted in my out performing the market by ~7k, with respect to that account. Right now I am at an asset allocation of 75-25 due to holding onto new cash since March and rebalancing back in my 401k out of equities.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

InvestingGeek wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:55 am Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
Yeah as a 29yo I was praying for a slow -80% decline over a whole decade.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Stef wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:53 am
InvestingGeek wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:55 am Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
Yeah as a 29yo I was praying for a slow -80% decline over a whole decade.
Because you didn't want to have a job?
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I am an accumulator. The last thing I'd want is a market that is 30-50% or more below its all time highs. That likely comes packaged with high uncertainty, potential hiring freezes, layoffs, and all sorts of other bad things for an accumulator. You can't accumulate if you have nothing to add to your pile.

How about the S&P 500 hovers around 3,000-3,400, flirting with all-time highs for a couple years, a vaccine becomes available and then the market takes off on a 12% per year annual return for the next ten years or so?
BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:23 pm I am an accumulator. The last thing I'd want is a market that is 30-50% or more below its all time highs. That likely comes packaged with high uncertainty, potential hiring freezes, layoffs, and all sorts of other bad things for an accumulator. You can't accumulate if you have nothing to add to your pile.

How about the S&P 500 hovers around 3,000-3,400, flirting with all-time highs for a couple years, a vaccine becomes available and then the market takes off on a 12% per year annual return for the next ten years or so?
The thing is we can't control any of that so I'm not sure why people talk about it so much. Instead of hoping and wishing for whatever price people want the S&P to be I suggest just focusing on earning more and spending less.
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?
Ed 2
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ed 2 »

minimalistmarc wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:40 am
Corsair wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:38 am S&P 500 seems to run in tandem with global money supply. If they keep printing, which they will, markets will go up up up

Long term, there is high probability markets will go up but expect a lot of up and down volatility along the way. Same as it ever was.
Stock market volatile? Nuh)
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

BW1985 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:27 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:23 pm I am an accumulator. The last thing I'd want is a market that is 30-50% or more below its all time highs. That likely comes packaged with high uncertainty, potential hiring freezes, layoffs, and all sorts of other bad things for an accumulator. You can't accumulate if you have nothing to add to your pile.

How about the S&P 500 hovers around 3,000-3,400, flirting with all-time highs for a couple years, a vaccine becomes available and then the market takes off on a 12% per year annual return for the next ten years or so?
The thing is we can't control any of that so I'm not sure why people talk about it so much. Instead of hoping and wishing for whatever price people want the S&P to be I suggest just focusing on earning more and spending less.
People talk a lot about things that they can't control. People also hope and wish a lot. It is human nature. Earning more and spending less requires real effort. That is not human nature.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:04 am
mrspock wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:16 am
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...
Let me help: close your eyes and click buy. I never sold, just rebalanced and hit new all time highs in my portfolio today. No this time wasn’t different, nor will next time be different.
What percentage of your portfolio is contributions made since Feb. 19, 2020?
About 6%, just under half of this went into bonds as the rebalance (which ended up being within a day of the low — just how it worked out) plus recovery tilted the portfolio heavily to equities.

If this keeps up, this might wind up as one of my best investment years ever. A combination of stay the course and being very fortunate (I’m in big tech).
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Kudos, I agree. However I admit to making one change. Instead of putting 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds, in March I adjusted my auto-purchase to 100% S&P 500. This is so immaterial that it's silly, but it feels good to take advantage of low prices.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
theorist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist »

Portfolio7 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:03 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Kudos, I agree. However I admit to making one change. Instead of putting 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds, in March I adjusted my auto-purchase to 100% S&P 500. This is so immaterial that it's silly, but it feels good to take advantage of low prices.
At what point do you think you’ll decide prices aren’t low anymore, and go back to 75/25?
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Portfolio7 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:03 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Kudos, I agree. However I admit to making one change. Instead of putting 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds, in March I adjusted my auto-purchase to 100% S&P 500. This is so immaterial that it's silly, but it feels good to take advantage of low prices.
But weren't you low in stocks after the crash anyway? I have been putting 100% of contributions into stocks because I am still a couple percent low.
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

theorist wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:08 pm
Portfolio7 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:03 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Kudos, I agree. However I admit to making one change. Instead of putting 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds, in March I adjusted my auto-purchase to 100% S&P 500. This is so immaterial that it's silly, but it feels good to take advantage of low prices.
At what point do you think you’ll decide prices aren’t low anymore, and go back to 75/25?
It's not material enough to be worth a process, nor a decision.

If I get outside my bands I'll rebalance, as I did 2 months ago. At this point in my investing life, that's a matter of market returns - not contributions.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:40 pm
Portfolio7 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:03 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Kudos, I agree. However I admit to making one change. Instead of putting 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds, in March I adjusted my auto-purchase to 100% S&P 500. This is so immaterial that it's silly, but it feels good to take advantage of low prices.
But weren't you low in stocks after the crash anyway? I have been putting 100% of contributions into stocks because I am still a couple percent low.
Yes, and if I used contributions to rebalance, you're correct that's what I would have done anyway. However, contributions are too small to meaningfully change much in a relevant timeframe. When my bands are triggered, I rebalance that following month (by which I mean I don't rebalance the day it triggers, I rebalance as a result of my once per month review). That happened in late March.

My AA is actually a little overweight stocks now. If market gains reach the point where I have to sell stocks and buy bonds, I'll have done well enough, and will happily rebalance again.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
cpan00b
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cpan00b »

GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Ugh yea, definitely learned that. Should I start to DCA now? If I auto set 2.5k a week purchase each Friday starting this week, by year end I will have invested about 77k of new money, which would still leave me with the same 100k in cash at year end which I currently hold. I.e. this total contribution would match my expected net income for the same period. I calculate that at year end, that would get me back to a 80-20 allocation (assuming today's valuations which obv won't be the case but just saying). I'd be out of the market longer by DCAing over 33 weeks but would probably sleep better given current uncertainties. Good plan?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stinky wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 10:43 pm Futures are up almost 1.5%.

Will Tuesday be the day when the S&P crosses 3,000 again? :moneybag
Tuesday saw the S&P cross 3,000 to the good side, then recross back below that mark.

Tuesday night futures are up. Hopefully Wednesday will be the day when S&P crosses and holds above 3,000.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:38 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Ugh yea, definitely learned that. Should I start to DCA now? If I auto set 2.5k a week purchase each Friday starting this week, by year end I will have invested about 77k of new money, which would still leave me with the same 100k in cash at year end which I currently hold. I.e. this total contribution would match my expected net income for the same period. I calculate that at year end, that would get me back to a 80-20 allocation (assuming today's valuations which obv won't be the case but just saying). I'd be out of the market longer by DCAing over 33 weeks but would probably sleep better given current uncertainties. Good plan?
If you were 80/20 and panicked at a 35% drop, then that's way too high of a stock allocation for you are this point in your investing career. Drop it down to 65/35 or 70/30 and see if you can weather the next drop without panicking. If you cannot, drop your equity allocation even more until you hit a correction which you have proven to yourself that you "stayed the course". From there just lump sum it. If you can't bring yourself to lump sum 65/35 then try 50/50 -- for reference this would be the recommended bond allocation of a 50 year old, with 15 years to go till retirement (based on the "age in bonds" rule).

DCA'ing is just a good way to suffer losses from a different direction (missing out on gains). And for goodness sake, do not look at a short term fluctuations in your portfolio's value as some sort of mistake.... judge your decisions based on sound process, not short term outcomes (i.e. changes in portfolio value) which are meaningless over the duration of your investing horizon.

Finally, I'd also run some math on how much money you actually need for retirement (inflation adjusted), even if you can stomach 80/20 or 70/30, if you don't actually need to take that risk to achieve your goals, dial down your equity allocation to only the level required to achieve your goals (i.e. I need X dollars in Y years).

P.S. You are in good company, head over to the thread @ viewtopic.php?p=5273153 , many have made the same mistake.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Regarding my earlier post:
HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:25 am ... being the savvy market timer that I am (cough, cough), I decided to become a "dip buyer" below 2800.

And that could be the signal that 2800 is a permanent floor now. You read it here first!
Starting April 24, 2020, the S&P has closed above 2800 every day. It was that evening that I posted the above. This was in the midst of other posts talking about the S&P going to 2,000.

One month has passed. So far, so good.

I rarely post a prediction/forecast/etc. The other one I can think of was in the 2019 Bogleheads contest, I finished at #6. On the next market close, mine was the closest number. I missed winning by one trading day!

By the way, I did pick up some shares on my above-mentioned dip-buying, as there were some intraday forays below 2800 since April 24, which allowed some of my limit orders to execute (meaning the "permanent floor" as mentioned above has held up only in terms of closing prices... but that's not too shabby).
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Futures are now well over the 200 dma, if tomorrow holds then barring any further shocks (example a 2nd wave) downside seems limited... opinions?
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:50 am Futures are now well over the 200 dma, if tomorrow holds then barring any further shocks (example a 2nd wave) downside seems limited... opinions?
I think that's a fair view of things. I think barring a bunch of states having to go back into lockdown due to meaningful surges in hospitalizations, we are probably in the clear. That said, I think the bar will be pretty high to go back into lockdowns.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Big rotation into value stocks today. Much more of this and we can finally declare FAANGTESLA to be dead money for 10 years.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Fund manager GMO reduces equity exposure after rebound
Ben Inker, GMO’s head of asset allocation, said its $17.5 billion of benchmark-free unconstrained strategies had reduced net equity exposure by 30%, repositioning a significant portion of a long equity position to equity long/short and keeping a 25% long position in emerging market value stocks.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-marke ... KKBN2322S1

---

Bullish sign?
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Future at 3027.

New ATH soon?
Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:50 am Futures are now well over the 200 dma, if tomorrow holds then barring any further shocks (example a 2nd wave) downside seems limited... opinions?
Stocks going higher limits the downside, eh?
Seems like it increases the downside to me.
GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:38 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:51 pm
dogagility wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 4:14 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:47 am I stopped contributing any new money since March 2nd...
There's your problem. Keep investing money regularly, no matter what, through ups and downs. It will pay off in the end.
I always champion auto-investing because it takes the emotion out. You don’t have to consider whether you should wait a couple days or not before you take the plunge with your money. Basically no thinking required and no action to take because it’s already a done deal.
Ugh yea, definitely learned that. Should I start to DCA now? If I auto set 2.5k a week purchase each Friday starting this week, by year end I will have invested about 77k of new money, which would still leave me with the same 100k in cash at year end which I currently hold. I.e. this total contribution would match my expected net income for the same period. I calculate that at year end, that would get me back to a 80-20 allocation (assuming today's valuations which obv won't be the case but just saying). I'd be out of the market longer by DCAing over 33 weeks but would probably sleep better given current uncertainties. Good plan?

Yes that is a good plan because you will sleep well and get back in the market. Some people around here don’t like to buy on Fridays, so I have mine set for Mondays (but that is another topic and it probably doesn’t matter). :happy The key thing is that if/when the market tanks, you don’t look at your investments and just pat yourself on the back for buying the dip with your automated plan. If you don’t think you can ignore a down market, mrspock gave good advice above regarding thinking about your risk tolerance and dialing it down. I’m 53 years old and 80/20 and didn’t panic the last few months because I’ve been through down markets at 100% equities and learned that it’s better to do nothing (or rebalance if you hold bonds which I do now).

Best of luck to you and if you are at some point tempted to not follow whatever plan you decide on, start a post and let everyone here talk you into staying the course. Bogleheads are good at that!




Okay, back to soaring.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

So I went over to Yahoo! Finance, and saw this picture, the guy is clearly looking up towards the U.S. stocks SOARING above him
Image
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

I was just going to make a joke about the headline writers today. That guy is looking up at the indices and wondering why the headline guys can't keep up.

Image
It's a 5 step process - gains, cut gains, loss, cut losses, gains. 5 headlines a day.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo »

Stef wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:53 am
InvestingGeek wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:55 am Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
Yeah as a 29yo I was praying for a slow -80% decline over a whole decade.
Let me fix that for you.

...I was praying for a rate of savings that increases from the income I bring in from my human capital while I throw everything at my investments, as well as reinvest all my dividends and interest throughout the next three to three and a half decades.
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

InvestingGeek wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:55 am Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
What??!!
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:09 pm I was just going to make a joke about the headline writers today. That guy is looking up at the indices and wondering why the headline guys can't keep up.

Image
It's a 5 step process - gains, cut gains, loss, cut losses, gains. 5 headlines a day.
Yes, there are 5 headlines. Sometimes it sounds like they are published in random order.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by inbox788 »

Stinky wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 9:44 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 10:43 pm Futures are up almost 1.5%.

Will Tuesday be the day when the S&P crosses 3,000 again? :moneybag
Tuesday saw the S&P cross 3,000 to the good side, then recross back below that mark.

Tuesday night futures are up. Hopefully Wednesday will be the day when S&P crosses and holds above 3,000.
Befuddled.

Just looked back 12 months ago, we were at 2800 and 6 months ago 3100 and 3 months ago nearly 3400. If some of the harder hit companies recover some or some more, will we see 300 points rise and be near back where we were as if nothing happened or changed?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

inbox788 wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 1:55 pm Befuddled.

Just looked back 12 months ago, we were at 2800 and 6 months ago 3100 and 3 months ago nearly 3400. If some of the harder hit companies recover some or some more, will we see 300 points rise and be near back where we were as if nothing happened or changed?
If we get back to ATH, it will be like the last year never happened.

I think back to the Dallas TV show of the 1980s. “Bobby Ewing“ was killed off at the end of the 1984-85 season. He remained dead for the 1985-86 season. But the writers wanted him back on the show, so the first episode of the 1986-87 season brought Bobby back to life by explaining that the entire prior season was just a bad dream of Bobby’s wife.

“Just a bad dream”. Hope that we can say this about the virus pretty soon.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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