U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:41 am "House of Cards" isn't a TV show - it's the stock market right now :wink:
The question is are you in or out?
I'm mostly buy & hold; but the slice of my portfolio which is market timing, will be forced to buy back in week by week :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

theorist wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:41 am Sweden has been open throughout and has done better than Italy and Spain,
That's not saying much. Sweden is in the top 15% of countries in terms of cases per 1M population, and in the top 10% (possibly top 5%) of countries in terms of deaths per 1M population (higher death rate than USA). Not exactly a success story. The investment implication (to keep things on-topic) is that following whatever Sweden's doing wouldn't necessarily be a good thing for US people, economy, markets, etc.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

HanSolo wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:59 am
theorist wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:41 am Sweden has been open throughout and has done better than Italy and Spain,
That's not saying much. Sweden is in the top 15% of countries in terms of cases per 1M population, and in the top 10% (possibly top 5%) of countries in terms of deaths per 1M population (higher death rate than USA). Not exactly a success story. The investment implication (to keep things on-topic) is that following whatever Sweden's doing wouldn't necessarily be a good thing for US people, economy, markets, etc.
Let's not forget that if you are the only one who isn't recycling the impact on the environment will be non-existent. Sweden profits massively from all other countries that literally stopped everything. No tourism, flight passengers dropped by over 90% etc.

If every country was following Sweden, we would probably see millions dying.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by doss »

BW1985 wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:27 pm
Nicolas wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:01 pm
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:35 pm
BW1985 wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:20 pm
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:34 am I just finished watching the WWII documentary on Netflix yesterday. To even think Japan and Germany and the world have any meaningful recovery after that level of destruction within a couple of decades is mind boggling. The current crisis is bad, but nothing compare to back then. Don’t bet against humanity.
Which one? I'm big into WWII history, that was such a fascinating time to study.
Greatest events of WWII in colors. It even has an episode on the battle of Bulge, the one Taylor Larimore was in!
I believe the series is called World War II in Colour. I’ve also been watching it on Netflix. It’s excellent. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2069688/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

I also recommend The World at War (1973-76), a groundbreaking 26-part documentary series narrated by the actor Laurence Olivier about the deadliest conflict in history, World War II. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071075/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
+1. These are both outstanding.

I did not know Taylor was in the Battle of the Bulge! I would love to buy that man a coffee sometime.
At the risk of thread derailing, just wanted to point out there's a ton of fake color footage out there. You can tell by the washed out charcoal-like footage. They are even colorizing Civil War color photos and passing it in films like "The Civil War in Color". Right now the Smithsonian Channel has the has a ton of color footage from WWII (Okinawa in Color, Pacific War in Color, The Fall of Japan in Color, etc). Did you know that more color footage was shot during WWII than Black/White? It's just that when the producers copied the film for showcase, they only had black/white film for transfer (cheaper, more widespread).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic, which is the soaring US stock market.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Futures looking down. I wish the U.S. stock market would stay on topic ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Pump operation failure!

Back of envelope calculation fair value Feb 2020 2,700 (market overdone). Fair value today (depressed earnings, higher unemployment) 2,300. Overshoot due to capitulation & panic - below 2,000.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:45 am Pump operation failure!

Back of envelope calculation fair value Feb 2020 2,700 (market overdone). Fair value today (depressed earnings, higher unemployment) 2,300. Overshoot due to capitulation & panic - below 2,000.
You're wrong. It should be below 200.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:13 am Futures looking down. I wish the U.S. stock market would stay on topic ;)
:mrgreen: :sharebeer

Your wish may come true... maybe.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan »

H-Town wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:00 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:45 am Pump operation failure!

Back of envelope calculation fair value Feb 2020 2,700 (market overdone). Fair value today (depressed earnings, higher unemployment) 2,300. Overshoot due to capitulation & panic - below 2,000.
You're wrong. It should be below 200.
Huh? What would the CAPE be, 1.5 :D.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

My wrinkle reading suggests that SP500 should drop now to 1800 by August 2020.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:38 pm4
I didn't say that. What I said that those who know will know.
But will you know what you know when you know you know, and will you know who knows what you know, you know?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Independent George wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:47 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:38 pm4
I didn't say that. What I said that those who know will know.
But will you know what you know when you know you know, and will you know who knows what you know, you know?
Yes. I guess, you know.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:14 am
minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:41 am "House of Cards" isn't a TV show - it's the stock market right now :wink:
The question is are you in or out?
I'm mostly buy & hold; but the slice of my portfolio which is market timing, will be forced to buy back in week by week :oops:
You've portrayed yourself as a 100% certain wild-man market-timer...

What exactly is your plan?

Why have you been posting with such certainty about a drop to 1800 when you obviously don't believe it yourself if you are mostly buy and hold?
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Finally a down day. I am still sitting on about 7% cash in my portfolio. I imagine what Amazon and Apple report tonight will dictate how we finish the week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

atdharris wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:56 am Finally a down day. I am still sitting on about 7% cash in my portfolio. I imagine what Amazon and Apple report tonight will dictate how we finish the week.
The day is young. Plenty of time for stocks to soar before the close.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:04 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:56 am Finally a down day. I am still sitting on about 7% cash in my portfolio. I imagine what Amazon and Apple report tonight will dictate how we finish the week.
The day is young. Plenty of time for stocks to soar before the close.
All we need is a little more bad news and I bet we take off! Surprised we didn't jump once we heard *only* 3.8 million lost their jobs last week. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:02 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
9AM 4/29/2020 - 2937. “Fibonacci level” conquered.
Back under :mrgreen:

I'm actually surprised the market is down today, given AH increases yesterday.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:04 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:56 am Finally a down day. I am still sitting on about 7% cash in my portfolio. I imagine what Amazon and Apple report tonight will dictate how we finish the week.
The day is young. Plenty of time for stocks to soar before the close.
... For the night is dark and full of terror.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:58 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:02 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
9AM 4/29/2020 - 2937. “Fibonacci level” conquered.
Back under :mrgreen:

I'm actually surprised the market is down today, given AH increases yesterday.
Of course it will fluctuate, nothing shoot straight up or down. Your point was “ yet to push past that level”. It shot beyond that point. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:14 am
minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:41 am "House of Cards" isn't a TV show - it's the stock market right now :wink:
The question is are you in or out?
I'm mostly buy & hold; but the slice of my portfolio which is market timing, will be forced to buy back in week by week :oops:
You've portrayed yourself as a 100% certain wild-man market-timer...

What exactly is your plan?

Why have you been posting with such certainty about a drop to 1800 when you obviously don't believe it yourself if you are mostly buy and hold?
Although I will not deviate from my plan I am willing the market to go lower; people in the accumulation phase are at odds with those who already have nest eggs. The market isn't worth the current asking price! All I ask for is SPX 1800 to give myself and others a chance.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:19 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:14 am
minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:41 am "House of Cards" isn't a TV show - it's the stock market right now :wink:
The question is are you in or out?
I'm mostly buy & hold; but the slice of my portfolio which is market timing, will be forced to buy back in week by week :oops:
You've portrayed yourself as a 100% certain wild-man market-timer...

What exactly is your plan?

Why have you been posting with such certainty about a drop to 1800 when you obviously don't believe it yourself if you are mostly buy and hold?
Although I will not deviate from my plan I am willing the market to go lower; people in the accumulation phase are at odds with those who already have nest eggs. The market isn't worth the current asking price! All I ask for is SPX 1800 to give myself and others a chance.
While I understand why you want buy-in price to be lower (who wouldn't?), I don't think it's helpful to focus on what you cannot control: the market.

Focus on saving rate and the consistency of your saving. It's what matters. Not market timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:19 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:14 am
minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 am
Forester wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:41 am "House of Cards" isn't a TV show - it's the stock market right now :wink:
The question is are you in or out?
I'm mostly buy & hold; but the slice of my portfolio which is market timing, will be forced to buy back in week by week :oops:
You've portrayed yourself as a 100% certain wild-man market-timer...

What exactly is your plan?

Why have you been posting with such certainty about a drop to 1800 when you obviously don't believe it yourself if you are mostly buy and hold?
Although I will not deviate from my plan I am willing the market to go lower; people in the accumulation phase are at odds with those who already have nest eggs. The market isn't worth the current asking price! All I ask for is SPX 1800 to give myself and others a chance.
So you admit you have no idea what the future holds? You just "want" the market to go to 1800... But you post like you know... It's very annoying. Just as annoying if someone constantly predicted 4000 by July. Over and over and over. Stating it as a fact, not a hope. Annoying.

Even the words "I think this might happen..." would help a lot (and give actual reasons why)
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:03 pm
Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:58 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:02 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am

Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
9AM 4/29/2020 - 2937. “Fibonacci level” conquered.
Back under :mrgreen:

I'm actually surprised the market is down today, given AH increases yesterday.
Of course it will fluctuate, nothing shoot straight up or down. Your point was “ yet to push past that level”. It shot beyond that point. :beer
My understanding is the 61.8% is an inflection point when reached, triggering a reversal or break. Market sold off near the end of yesterday after passing it, was down today, and it's down after hours. If it continues to trend down does that mean the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement happened?
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:06 pm
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:03 pm
Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:58 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:02 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
9AM 4/29/2020 - 2937. “Fibonacci level” conquered.
Back under :mrgreen:

I'm actually surprised the market is down today, given AH increases yesterday.
Of course it will fluctuate, nothing shoot straight up or down. Your point was “ yet to push past that level”. It shot beyond that point. :beer
My understanding is the 61.8% is an inflection point when reached, triggering a reversal or break. Market sold off near the end of yesterday after passing it, was down today, and it's down after hours. If it continues to trend down does that mean the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement happened?
I have no idea! I only went by what you said. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:06 pmIf it continues to trend down does that mean the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement happened?
Really and truly, no one here cares.

It's like you're talking about Aries Sun with Gemini Rising... Seriously. It's no better than astrology. Maybe even worse.


"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"

-- John Kenneth Galbraith
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:10 pm
Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:06 pmIf it continues to trend down does that mean the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement happened?
Really and truly, no one here cares.

It's like you're talking about Aries Sun with Gemini Rising... Seriously. It's no better than astrology. Maybe even worse.


"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"

-- John Kenneth Galbraith
For people with backgrounds in math, science and engineering, this stuff does serve as comedy relief...(maybe for others too!).
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

theorist wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:21 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:10 pm
Corsair wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:06 pmIf it continues to trend down does that mean the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement happened?
Really and truly, no one here cares.

It's like you're talking about Aries Sun with Gemini Rising... Seriously. It's no better than astrology. Maybe even worse.


"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"

-- John Kenneth Galbraith
For people with backgrounds in math, science and engineering, this stuff does serve as comedy relief...(maybe for others too!).
it's amazing to me most of the biggest names in economics and finance all have sayings that basically say predicting market movements is hard.

And yet people still try to do it. Not only try to do it, but actually believe it's easy.


“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

--John Maynard Keynes


"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie [Munger] and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."

-Warren Buffet
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:01 pm
it's amazing to me most of the biggest names in economics and finance all have sayings that basically say predicting market movements is hard.

And yet people still try to do it. Not only try to do it, but actually believe it's easy.
Why is it amazing? If you get it right, you can become fabulously wealthy. The odds are a lot better than blackjack too.

Even the perma bears still have good odds of winning since the cost of placing their bets is so low.

And every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.

Buy and hold does not beat the market, it just takes the mean winnings and doesn't lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

This market has been sideways since January 2018. I'm thinking just walking away from looking for awhile. It will be hard for sure.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
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Post by Jozxyqk »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Your argument applies to literally any type of entrepreneurial activity. Sure, most new businesses fail in the first few years. Part of that is the risk of the activity, part is also because a lot of people try to open businesses who are bad at it.

Skill exists. Good entrepreneurs will consistently succeed. Good day traders consistently make good money.

It's fine to decide that you don't have the skill/inclination/time and are happy to take the average return (I have), but it's silly and wrong to dogmatically decide that the distribution of winners and losers is as random as people sitting at slot machines.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by zorobabel »

I bought ITOT yesterday, the results speak for themselves. Sorry guys ...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Yes, except the major difference is that the game isn't rigged against market timers or entrepreneurs.
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Post by canadianbacon »

Another great week over, ended up 0.06%!
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

zorobabel wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:11 am I bought ITOT yesterday, the results speak for themselves. Sorry guys ...
I sold some VV and QQQ yesterday. Should have sold some VONE too.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

S&P is now positive on the day.

After so many posts on the “free fall” thread over the weekend, it’s time to move the discussion here.
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Post by mrspock »

Stinky wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 2:21 pm S&P is now positive on the day.

After so many posts on the “free fall” thread over the weekend, it’s time to move the discussion here.
I think we should call this the Dead Cat Bull Market of 2020. If we retraced lows from here, I’d be the first time in history the market would have done this after recovering so much — I don’t like the bears’ odds on this call.

Combine that with the trend of economies opening back up, things only get better from here on out. Not to mention if they announce a vaccine which works, the shorts would be obliterated on that day.
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Post by Bluce »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:47 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Yes, except the major difference is that the game isn't rigged against market timers or entrepreneurs.
No, the market isn't intentionally rigged against investors, but the odds against market timers are known. Many authors (the names escape me) have noted -- via research -- that you only have about a 5% or so chance of beating the market over the long haul.

This is news to all Bogleheads . . . right?? :annoyed :mrgreen:
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Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP »

Bluce wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:47 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Yes, except the major difference is that the game isn't rigged against market timers or entrepreneurs.
No, the market isn't intentionally rigged against investors, but the odds against market timers are known. Many authors (the names escape me) have noted -- via research -- that you only have about a 5% or so chance of beating the market over the long haul.

This is news to all Bogleheads . . . right?? :annoyed :mrgreen:
Market timers still do better than those sitting on the sidelines. Just saying.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

It’s expensive now. According to the WSJ it’s trading at 24x earnings, and we are about to go into a recession.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 3:20 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:47 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Yes, except the major difference is that the game isn't rigged against market timers or entrepreneurs.
No, the market isn't intentionally rigged against investors, but the odds against market timers are known. Many authors (the names escape me) have noted -- via research -- that you only have about a 5% or so chance of beating the market over the long haul.

This is news to all Bogleheads . . . right?? :annoyed :mrgreen:
Market timers still do better than those sitting on the sidelines. Just saying.
Most do not. You should not state the above without qualifiers.

We can probably agree on this.

"Buy and hold" crowd should not say "successful market-timing is impossible".

"Market-timing" crowd should not say "Market-timing is easy" or "Most market-timers beat the market".

Edit: Whoops, I totally read this wrong.... You were comparing market-timers to people who don't invest at all?? Seems like a weird comparison, but okay.

Most of the people who are on the sidelines ARE market-timers. Unless they are on the sidelines 100% of the time.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon May 04, 2020 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 3:20 pm Market timers still do better than those sitting on the sidelines. Just saying.
Remind me of the survival bias. Do you think market timers who lost money would come back and tell the tale?

Occasionally, you may have a few who make so much money that a bad deal here or there won't make a difference.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grabiner »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 3:20 pm Market timers still do better than those sitting on the sidelines. Just saying.
This is true but misleading. Since the market goes up more than it goes down (which is why we have this thread), market timers who are in the market at random times will do better than investors who never get into the market, unless their transaction costs and taxes eat up the excess returns. However, a market timer who is in the market 50% of the time will do no better than an investor who is 50% in the market all the time, and will have more risk.
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Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP »

Are we talking about wall street betters or actual professionals here?

I think we all agree that people who don't trade for an actual living are generally not successful or at the very least, it's not a great idea.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

rockstar wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 5:10 pm It’s expensive now. According to the WSJ it’s trading at 24x earnings, and we are about to go into a recession.
With interest rates at 0% and heading lower, this will seem very cheap in hindsight
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Bluce wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:47 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pmAnd every once in a while, a good chunk of the timers win. The others kind of lose, but then get back up and do it again to win some other day.
You just described a gambler's rationale for gambling. Except the majority don't win another day. They'll lose, lose, win, lose lose. Their little, infrequent wins give them glimmers of hope and confidence so that they'll keep coming back to try to win and recoup losses.
Yes, except the major difference is that the game isn't rigged against market timers or entrepreneurs.
No, the market isn't intentionally rigged against investors, but the odds against market timers are known. Many authors (the names escape me) have noted -- via research -- that you only have about a 5% or so chance of beating the market over the long haul.

This is news to all Bogleheads . . . right?? :annoyed :mrgreen:
Yea, I’ve never seen Taylor post a list of about 1000 investment legend quotes saying you can’t time the market (successfully over the long term) hehe
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Well, soaring again today.

I don't know what is happening but I am hoping for more of it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

I'm in an odd place mentally. I'm as optimistic as ever in the medium and long term, but think we are in for more pain in the short term as the world gradually divests from its second-largest economy. I thought the March panic was overwrought, but am now finding this rally equally ridiculous.

I guess that markets are inherently unstable, alternating between 'Panic!' and 'Everything Is Awesome!' in the short run, which will eventually compress into a smooth line up or down once we've gotten some distance from it. Ten years from now, it will be perfectly obvious that we'd hit bottom/had a long way left to go. In the meantime, I guess this is what an IPS is for.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Right. I am investing as if I don't know nothing. It's really working better than I thought it would.

The world economy, I think, is 100 times more complex than the ideas we might be tempted to post over and over and over. You have to make a lot of choices about suppliers, and I am just not going to predict those choices.
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