U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
So there is a main goalpost. That implies that there are multiple other goalposts? I get it now.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

TINA has been in the house and I have been sneaking money out of her purse.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
Psssst.... Fibonacci analyses are utter nonsense. About as good as going to a tarot card reader for your stock advice.
EddyB
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by EddyB »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:46 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
So there is a main goalpost. That implies that there are multiple other goalposts? I get it now.
It's less work than having to move the one.
7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 7eight9 »

theorist wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:15 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:56 pm
theorist wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:46 am There is a lot of forward-looking good news. The first states are re-opening. Europe is re-opening slowly (even Italy, next week).
Is this really news from the markets perspective, considering it has been known for at least a week?

Also, here’s some not-so-good info that the market doesn’t seem to be factoring in ... over 26M Americans have lost their job.
From my perspective, the openings are uncertain till announced. E.g. we still don’t quite know when big states like NY and CA will really ramp back up. Similarly, European countries have opened in small stages, with announcements every week or two about nuanced stages of the opening. But we do know that in the US, 5 states are reopening now, with all indications that others will follow in the next month, and similarly with various bits of economies of Austria, Italy, Germany...

The unemployment was more or less guaranteed and intentionally created when the government explicitly told people to stay at home and many businesses to shut down. It is viewed by many as being temporary, and will hopefully be to a large extent cured (over time) by the re-openings mentioned above. Probably not back to the 3.5% unemployment level any time soon, sadly. Hopefully, stimulus payments are helping those who are most affected.

[I agree with you that the openings can be anticipated on a few day timescale, but I believe the unemployment was anticipated even earlier.]

From this perspective, the next big market danger comes from unexpected downsides to the re-openings. Either cases ramp back up and we have a second wave of shutdowns, or re-opening proves much less smooth (in terms of economic ramp-up) even than we can anticipate.

Of course my perspective may be unique to me, and not explain how the market movers think about things at all :-).
I don't think we are going to have to wait too long to find out (see text in bold above).

As Germany lockdown eases, spread of coronavirus worsens
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/ ... 43362.html

Will the market shrug off a failure to reopen or could it precipitate the second leg down? It will be interesting to see.
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expat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by expat »

I hate this thread. It has no useful purpose and isn't actionable.
rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:11 pm I hate this thread. It has no useful purpose and isn't actionable.
Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:11 pm I hate this thread. It has no useful purpose and isn't actionable.
I smell FOMO or market timing gone bad !!!!
Last edited by carminered2019 on Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:11 pm I hate this thread. It has no useful purpose and isn't actionable.
Maybe you’ll feel more comfortable on the “free fall” thread?
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expat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by expat »

Maybe you’ll feel more comfortable on the “free fall” thread?
That one is useless too! :)
expat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by expat »

Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 pm
Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
There are lots of anti-Boglehead threads/posts here lately. Contrarian views offer debates and things to talk about. If everyone set a 3 fund portfolio up and didn't peek this place would be pretty much dead.
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SmileyFace »

BW1985 wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:15 pm
expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 pm
Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
There are lots of anti-Boglehead threads/posts here lately. Contrarian views offer debates and things to talk about. If everyone set a 3 fund portfolio up and didn't peek this place would be pretty much dead.
Well - there would still be consumer debates (whether or not a $5000 watch is worthwhile; how to score toilet-paper; what kind of soap to buy; ...)
theorist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist »

I think everyone posts in these threads as a matter of entertainment. I’m definitely not changing my AA or investing plans based on speculations here about present / future market soaring (or on the other thread, about present / future market free falls).

There are some pretty serious market timing threads, but you know, people are free to do whatever they want with their own money.
mroe800
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mroe800 »

DaftInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:21 pm
BW1985 wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:15 pm
expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 pm
Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
There are lots of anti-Boglehead threads/posts here lately. Contrarian views offer debates and things to talk about. If everyone set a 3 fund portfolio up and didn't peek this place would be pretty much dead.
Well - there would still be consumer debates (whether or not a $5000 watch is worthwhile; how to score toilet-paper; what kind of soap to buy; ...)
Has the watch thread been bumped lately? Hadn’t seen it since corona started.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 pm Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
Nothing in the philosophy says that people need to ignore markets. They just shouldn't act on those daily changes.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
Sometimes I wonder if people really believe this nonsense. But then I remember there are anti-vaxx people, flat earthers etc.
FlyingMoose
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FlyingMoose »

Stef wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:57 am
Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
Sometimes I wonder if people really believe this nonsense. But then I remember there are anti-vaxx people, flat earthers etc.
If enough people believe it, it will make it true. If it breaks above some commonly-believed level and a bunch of people buy it, that will make it go up.
occambogle
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by occambogle »

GDP contracts almost 5% and more than expected, Gilead drug positivity news.... it's like a risk-parity news portfolio....
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

S&P up almost 2% near the open. Over the 2,900 level.

We'll see if we can hold onto the gains as the day progresses.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Still expecting to see 3000 by end of this week.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:11 pm I hate this thread. It has no useful purpose and isn't actionable.
Still in cash?
Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

Gilead releases a PR statement which has countered other news about remdesivir the minute GDP (worst than estimates) comes out. Quite a coincidence.

Noticed similar things when unemployment numbers come out on Thursdays.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan »

Global small value is soaring for me. US value too.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Feel you. I will admit I did a small market timing adjustment by decreasing my 401k contribution to spread through 2020 instead of maxing out in July. The recent rally was a driver but I also have a hefty pile of 0% CC debt expiring in 2021 that I’m cash flowing and want to get the bulk of it done sooner than later given the economic uncertainty.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Feel you too. But you said it yourself, everything what you listed is public information. So it's priced in.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Another drop does seem likely.

But another drop seemed likely at 2550-2600... Stock market had risen from the bottom on March 23 at 2200 even with all the bad news, and no one... I mean NO ONE on this board expected it to hit 2900+ again so soon.

So NONE of us got it right.

And anyone who sold at 2600 is stressing a little bit right now... Maybe not a lot of stress. They are mostly thinking "Man, it will drop again... I'm sure it will. This is crazy."

And they are probably right.

But there's a little stress in there, because what if the impossible continues to happen? What if it doesn't drop, maybe just stays even for a few weeks, maybe even grows more?

If it's growing like this now, what happens if some serious GOOD news hits?

Market-timing is stressful.

50/50 buy and hold is awesome. You're never wrong. You're always right (or vice-versa). :)

Stocks go up, you're smart to be holding stocks, and it's nice seeing your portfolio grow
Stocks go down, you're smart to be holding bonds, and amid all the screams of dismay, you feel pretty good that your portfolio is just a little bit lower.

But that's just me. :sharebeer
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Seems so obvious and easy doesn’t it? Agree best to do nothing.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Btw, this might help you turn off that urge to sell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stef wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:42 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Btw, this might help you turn off that urge to sell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0
Great video!
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

This market is really incredible. We're sitting at 15%+ in unemployment, GDP just shrunk 4.5%, and there is no real evidence we will see anywhere near a V-shaped recovery. Yet, we are something like 15% off ATHs. If I had the balls, I'd just sink all my cash savings into the market and let it roll. It seems as if the FED will not let the market crash. Perhaps I should just ride with them?
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

atdharris wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am This market is really incredible. We're sitting at 15%+ in unemployment, GDP just shrunk 4.5%, and there is no real evidence we will see anywhere near a V-shaped recovery. Yet, we are something like 15% off ATHs. If I had the balls, I'd just sink all my cash savings into the market and let it roll. It seems as if the FED will not let the market crash. Perhaps I should just ride with them?
Whatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk. When I saw that big pop in futures this morning, I thought the market's gone from whiskey to heroin this morning. Small caps up 3.5% 5% today, that's good, I'll just enjoy the ride with what I already have.

So it'll go up or down sometime. No timing it for me.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SmileyFace
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SmileyFace »

mroe800 wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:19 pm
DaftInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:21 pm
BW1985 wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:15 pm
expat wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 pm
Pretty simple to skip it. You just don't push the button.
Threads devoted to daily market ups and downs are anti-Boglehead :)
There are lots of anti-Boglehead threads/posts here lately. Contrarian views offer debates and things to talk about. If everyone set a 3 fund portfolio up and didn't peek this place would be pretty much dead.
Well - there would still be consumer debates (whether or not a $5000 watch is worthwhile; how to score toilet-paper; what kind of soap to buy; ...)
Has the watch thread been bumped lately? Hadn’t seen it since corona started.
Actively being updated (Yesterday/Today)!
Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

I find the short-term dips and rallies interesting even if I don't act on them except to rebalance.

It seems like a contradiction, but I'm a permabear who nevertheless maintains a 90/10 portfolio because I'm an optimist on the long-term despite being convinced we're constantly headed for disaster in the short term. As I get older, and my 'long-term' becomes shorter and shorter, I'll reduce my stock exposure.

I expect pain for the next 6 months or so even as the world's economies re-open. I expect a global shift in the global economy as companies start moving away from China over the next 2-5 years. This will probably cause price increases and reductions in productivity as economies adjust, and the disruption raises the possibility of an actual shooting war in Asia as a side-effect.

At the end of the day, though, I expect the world economy to continue to grow, and will invest accordingly. Economic growth is fundamentally about getting better and better at using our resources to improve quality of life, and I don't see the virus changing that. It might even accelerate it in the long run.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by truenorth418 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:39 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
So NONE of us got it right.

I did.

As did everyone else here who had an IPS, stayed the course, perhaps bought more stocks when they hit rebalancing bands. Those of us Bogleheads who did that are now enjoying the ride back up.

Not saying I think the market won’t drop again. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. I have no idea.

But I was so disappointed to see many on this board panicking and selling, or trying to time the market during this situation.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:00 am
atdharris wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am This market is really incredible. We're sitting at 15%+ in unemployment, GDP just shrunk 4.5%, and there is no real evidence we will see anywhere near a V-shaped recovery. Yet, we are something like 15% off ATHs. If I had the balls, I'd just sink all my cash savings into the market and let it roll. It seems as if the FED will not let the market crash. Perhaps I should just ride with them?
Whatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk.
Truth.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:00 am
atdharris wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am This market is really incredible. We're sitting at 15%+ in unemployment, GDP just shrunk 4.5%, and there is no real evidence we will see anywhere near a V-shaped recovery. Yet, we are something like 15% off ATHs. If I had the balls, I'd just sink all my cash savings into the market and let it roll. It seems as if the FED will not let the market crash. Perhaps I should just ride with them?
Whatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk. When I saw that big pop in futures this morning, I thought the market's gone from whiskey to heroin this morning. Small caps up 3.5% today, that's good, I'll just enjoy the ride with what I already have.

So it'll go up or down sometime. No timing it for me.
I hope someone asks Powell what he thinks of the big disconnect from Main Street to Wall Street. About concerns on increases in Moral Hazard. Sure they will be soft-ball questions though.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Just another +2.2% day from the current level and we're back to 3000.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

truenorth418 wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:22 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:39 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
So NONE of us got it right.

I did.
You thought we'd be back at 2900+ by now?
As did everyone else here who had an IPS, stayed the course, perhaps bought more stocks when they hit rebalancing bands. Those of us Bogleheads who did that are now enjoying the ride back up.

Not saying I think the market won’t drop again. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. I have no idea.

But I was so disappointed to see many on this board panicking and selling, or trying to time the market during this situation.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying... I too "stayed the course" and did nothing.

I'm saying no one was posting a couple of weeks ago how we were likely to hit 2900+ soon with deaths increasing, unemployment increasing, GDP decreasing.

I'm saying no one knows enough to make accurate predictions. You're saying the same thing.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

I just finished watching the WWII documentary on Netflix yesterday. To even think Japan and Germany and the world have any meaningful recovery after that level of destruction within a couple of decades is mind boggling. The current crisis is bad, but nothing compare to back then. Don’t bet against humanity.
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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by siamond »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:00 amWhatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk. When I saw that big pop in futures this morning, I thought the market's gone from whiskey to heroin this morning.
That is the best characterization I've read in a while... Totally drunk indeed... :shock:
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

lostdog wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:46 am
Stef wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:42 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:16 am I am not a market timer and never have been, but if I ever was to attempt, I can't imagine a more tempting time than now. The country is shut down, earnings are going to be awful, we're very likely in a recession, unemployment is 17% or maybe higher, we are seeing resurgence in virus cases when other countries open up...and stocks are just 13-14% off the all time high.

But I still won't do it. I know enough to know that I know nothing and that markets are forward looking and already know all of the information that I know.
Btw, this might help you turn off that urge to sell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0
Great video!
Outstanding!

Staying the course here. Doing nothing unless the market has a large decline or increase, in which case I will be rebalancing per IPS. Other than that, buying $750 biweekly via 401k contributions and watching the market do its thing.
rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott »

I haven't checked in a few days..... but the average stock is down much more than the leading cap weighted indexes. Large cap tech has kept the index where it is.... but there are tons of stocks that are still down 30%+ from 2 months ago.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

atdharris wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am If I had the balls, I'd just sink all my cash savings into the market and let it roll.
right now 30+% up from low, no way...…….you go all in when there's blood on the streets which was 4 weeks a go, right now is just FOMO. I went all-in when the DOW was dropping from 22k-18K.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:50 am, edited 4 times in total.
aristotelian
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by aristotelian »

I noticed that today the yield curve is actually completely non-inverted for the first time in many months.

1M 0.08
2M 0.09
3M 0.11
6M 0.13
1Y 0.16
2Y 0.20
3Y 0.26
5Y 0.37
7Y 0.52
10Y 0.62
20Y 1.00
30Y 1.20
Randolph Mortimer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Randolph Mortimer »

lostdog wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:46 am
Stef wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:42 amBtw, this might help you turn off that urge to sell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0
Great video!
Agreed, that guy just got a new subscription. Thanks for posting!
MiddleOfTheRoad
Posts: 307
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

Corsair wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:30 am
Forester wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am Will be a complete disaster for the bulls if they can't pump this up and close above 2,900!
Moving the goalpost much?
The main goalpost should be 2934.49 which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

We’ve been around these levels for a few weeks and yet to push past that level.
9AM 4/29/2020 - 2937. “Fibonacci level” conquered.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:44 am I noticed that today the yield curve is actually completely non-inverted for the first time in many months.

1M 0.08
2M 0.09
3M 0.11
6M 0.13
1Y 0.16
2Y 0.20
3Y 0.26
5Y 0.37
7Y 0.52
10Y 0.62
20Y 1.00
30Y 1.20
Who would have ever thought that we would have a “non invested” yield curve with the 30 year at 1.20%?
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