U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:01 pm

Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up.
lol no it doesn't
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?

adave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by adave » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:08 pm

Every day that passes we learn more about the virus, potential treatments, extend of infections and the economic damage and how to address it. I genuinely feel the panic has past and every day that passes we get closer to defeating this thing and reviving the economy. It will probably take quite a while to hit all time highs on the market again but the panic crash phase is over imo. We may stay in this middle ground for a while. 20% up from the low but 20% below ATH.

Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:13 pm

adave wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:08 pm
Every day that passes we learn more about the virus, potential treatments, extend of infections and the economic damage and how to address it. I genuinely feel the panic has past and every day that passes we get closer to defeating this thing and reviving the economy.
I agree. Unlike other recessions, this one was caused by a specific event that we can defeat. Once largely defeated, I don't see why, economically, things won't trend back up.

But honestly, what the heck do I know?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:16 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:13 pm
adave wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:08 pm
Every day that passes we learn more about the virus, potential treatments, extend of infections and the economic damage and how to address it. I genuinely feel the panic has past and every day that passes we get closer to defeating this thing and reviving the economy.
I agree. Unlike other recessions, this one was caused by a specific event that we can defeat. Once largely defeated, I don't see why, economically, things won't trend back up.

But honestly, what the heck do I know?
In the U.S. I would imagine a lot will depend on the damage sustained by individual and small business balance sheets.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:18 pm

BW1985 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:00 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:25 pm
Huh? I'm confused too. Why wouldn't you sell bonds to cover expenses? Am I missing your joke?
Bonds can fall in value, especially long bonds, and they may be down when one "must" sell. Expense money should be in cash. It is all in the Wiki.
Some folks keep next to zero cash, I believe livesoft is one of them.
I have a venture capital fund. I used some of that to catch the falling VOO knife. During the "great recession" I used some to buy used gold Rolex watches. Those watches are now worth more as scrap than I paid for them. Having extra cash on hand is good for many things other than traditional "dry powder".
Stinky wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:37 am
Futures are UP this morning.

But then again, they were up yesterday morning. And we all saw how that ended.
They ended up. :moneybag
I know not what the market will do tomorrow but I do know what I will do; I will follow my investment plan no matter how much it hurts.
The only thing I will not do is borrow money to play poker or buy VOO. That keeps the wolf from my door and food on the table.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:39 pm

rustymutt wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:36 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:31 pm
rustymutt wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:27 pm
Or we could be rational, and just wait this out on the sidelines for a time
Stocks are long-term money.

The rational move is to stay invested for the long-term with your stock money.

"Waiting it out on the sidelines" is usually a poor way to invest.
I'm fine with that. I don't need more, and this sits well with my personal feelings. I've been sleeping better out of this market.
I'm not a true buy and holder. I admit it. But I wouldn't be where I am if I had just bought and never moved with markets. May be that luck is involved, but I don't gamble, but sleep really good.
I have no problem with you being in a position to "sit on the sidelines", and not damage your retirement goals (since you've already met them).

I didn't like that you said that it was the rational position to take (implying that staying in the market during these times is irrational)

But perhaps I read it wrong, and you only meant it was a rational position to take for yourself only, since you have already reached all your long-term goals. That wasn't clear to me. Sorry about that.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:44 pm

BW1985 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:01 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up.
lol no it doesn't
And an hour later, we're up 3% instead of 1.5%...

And that was a very silly comment Forester.

I absolutely agree that the market may crash again soon, if the rosy scenarios we are all hoping for don't come to pass. I might even agree it's likely.

But you still don't get to call up days "down" days to feed your narrative.

If you are right, there will be plenty of actual down days to talk about.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:52 pm

Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
??? Why would you count below 2700 (IF it happens) as a 'down day'?

You may be waiting a while for 2000. Someone up thread mentioned the FED/administration 'not allowing' that - I tend to agree. I don't see 2000 on the SPX unless the world sees a dramatic shift worse for infections and deaths. /0.02 cents.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:53 pm

Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
lol this is comedy stuff.

I buy, regardless of S&P 500 level.

When I retire, I sell.

BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:55 pm

H-Town wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:53 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
lol this is comedy stuff.

I buy, regardless of S&P 500 level.

When I retire, I sell.
The Soar and Free Fall threads are the two most entertaining threads on the forum, that I've seen at least.
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:59 pm

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:52 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
??? Why would you count below 2700 (IF it happens) as a 'down day'?

You may be waiting a while for 2000. Someone up thread mentioned the FED/administration 'not allowing' that - I tend to agree. I don't see 2000 on the SPX unless the world sees a dramatic shift worse for infections and deaths. /0.02 cents.
That is the next question Forester... What happens if it doesn't drop to 2000? You're a terrible trader if you don't think you can never be wrong. Seriously. That is a HUGE rookie mistake...

You may be 99% sure that we will have another crash soon (and we absolutely might), but you better not be 100% sure... You better have a plan if you're wrong.

What's your play if we hang around between 2100 and 3000 for the next year? What if grows past 3000 in 2 months? Still a sucker rally? What about if it grows past 3000 in 6 months?

You better have a plan other than just "I will buy below 2000". At least have an expiring date on that plan.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:59 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:18 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:00 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:25 pm
Huh? I'm confused too. Why wouldn't you sell bonds to cover expenses? Am I missing your joke?
Bonds can fall in value, especially long bonds, and they may be down when one "must" sell. Expense money should be in cash. It is all in the Wiki.
Some folks keep next to zero cash, I believe livesoft is one of them.
I have a venture capital fund. I used some of that to catch the falling VOO knife. During the "great recession" I used some to buy used gold Rolex watches. Those watches are now worth more as scrap than I paid for them. Having extra cash on hand is good for many things other than traditional "dry powder".
Stinky wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:37 am
Futures are UP this morning.

But then again, they were up yesterday morning. And we all saw how that ended.
They ended up. :moneybag
I know not what the market will do tomorrow but I do know what I will do; I will follow my investment plan no matter how much it hurts.
The only thing I will not do is borrow money to play poker or buy VOO. That keeps the wolf from my door and food on the table.
I don't know anything about the used watch market - but, this comment made me smile (and, reminded me of when I had bought some art as an investment *shudder* many years ago). Did you buy the watches as an investment? Or, do you collect them?

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:00 pm

S&P 500 is only down -6% over the last 12 months.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:03 pm

Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer on CNBC:

"Prices are attractive but we don't really know what's gonna happen. Actually, nobody knows so that's why this is an opportunity - so we're buying."

:mrgreen:
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?

Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:04 pm

H-Town wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:53 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
lol this is comedy stuff.

I buy, regardless of S&P 500 level.

When I retire, I sell.
Agreed. We're retired and I'm STILL buying... cola pensions > expenses.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:04 pm

Melting up toward the close?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

vipertom1970
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vipertom1970 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:08 pm

Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
justification for FOMO. :D

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm

Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:00 pm
S&P 500 is only down -6% over the last 12 months.
Indeed. If you can believe it: my account value (including new money) is at the same level it was mid-November 2019 (no that's not a typo).

What I find fascinating is the knots all the market timers are now in, for a move that was supposed to make you sleep at night, it sure seems to do the opposite from where I stand. Now they have the agonizing choice of deciding when to get back in, which itself is a stomach turning choice. I figure we are getting into the territory where a lot of people capitulated (~March 11th lows), so the big damage to the market timing portfolios will begin soon -- you can already see threads popping up with people wondering how to get back in.

Buy and hold people.... we just stand here and twiddle our thumbs, buying up shares cheap as much as possible to regain our desired AAs.

Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.

occambogle
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by occambogle » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm

BW1985 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:55 pm
The Soar and Free Fall threads are the two most entertaining threads on the forum, that I've seen at least.
+1... especially in recent weeks when they were both completely valid at different hours of the day.

ballons
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ballons » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:21 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
Off to new sustainable highs!! :moneybag

10 million unemployed, nothing open or opening for months, businesses closing! Don't for get to wash your hands for 20 seconds. Life is great! :sharebeer
Corporate debt bubble is totally and completely solved.

atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.

goblue100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goblue100 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:26 pm

atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.
I put in 25% of my dry powder yesterday. Nothing today.
I may have missed the absolute lows, but if not I can buy more.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:26 pm

atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.
Don't worry, probably around 2900 you'll get one :D . At this rate it will be Friday or Monday.

index245
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by index245 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:27 pm

mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:00 pm
S&P 500 is only down -6% over the last 12 months.
Indeed. If you can believe it: my account value (including new money) is at the same level it was mid-November 2019 (no that's not a typo).

What I find fascinating is the knots all the market timers are now in, for a move that was supposed to make you sleep at night, it sure seems to do the opposite from where I stand. Now they have the agonizing choice of deciding when to get back in, which itself is a stomach turning choice. I figure we are getting into the territory where a lot of people capitulated (~March 11th lows), so the big damage to the market timing portfolios will begin soon -- you can already see threads popping up with people wondering how to get back in.

Buy and hold people.... we just stand here and twiddle our thumbs, buying up shares cheap as much as possible to regain our desired AAs.

Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.
Is it over? Maybe. But I'll truly be stunned if we are even flat from this point for the next six months or even two years. It would take an amazing ability for the markets to ignore poor corporate earnings, potential inflation, near-depression levels of unemployment, defaults in both rentals and mortgages, and near six figure deaths in the US alone. At current levels, the market is not historically "cheap" in any way, regardless of pandemic. The median time period for a bear market is 18 months.

That being said, like you and Mr. Bogle, I know nothing and am buy and hold. I liquidated a portion of my taxable account (balanced fund) to bolster cash reserves with potential job losses, but matched with related moves into equities in my retirement account. All other contributions to retirement and taxable are business as usual. Stay safe everyone.
Last edited by index245 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:28 pm

atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.
Buying on a 4% down day after three 3% up days won't make you richer.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

chicagoan23
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by chicagoan23 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:34 pm

index245 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:27 pm
Is it over? Maybe. But I'll truly be stunned if we are even flat from this point for the next six months or even two years. It would take an amazing ability for the markets to ignore poor corporate earnings, potential inflation, near-depression levels of unemployment, defaults in both rentals and mortgages, and near six figure deaths in the US alone. At current levels, the market is not historically "cheap" in any way, regardless of pandemic. The median time period for a bear market is 18 months.

That being said, like you and Mr. Bogle, I know nothing and am buy and hold. I liquidated a portion of my taxable account (balanced fund) to bolster cash reserves with potential job losses, but matched with related moves into equities in my retirement account. All other contributions to retirement and taxable are business as usual. Stay safe everyone.
At this point I think we have to assume that stock market prices are at least somewhat divorced from any actual substance, and that unlimited liquidity has to go somewhere, so it is going into stocks.
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" | | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:37 pm

atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.
I'm sure they're coming soon. I've been a buyer of VOO/VTI all the way down (and multiple times). BUT, I have to admit, SPX 2700 *feels* a bit frothy to me - given the economic fallout. Here's the thing, though, at least for me regarding my investments - I really make every effort to NOT allow any of my *feelings* to come into play. I have long subscribed to Buffett's idea of how long his favorite time to hold investments is - - forever. Bogleheads has taught me the value of low cost index funds - thanks!

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:38 pm

index245 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:27 pm
mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm
...
Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.
Is it over? Maybe. But I'll truly be stunned if we are even flat from this point for the next six months or even two years. It would take an amazing ability for the markets to ignore poor corporate earnings, potential inflation, near-depression levels of unemployment, defaults in both rentals and mortgages, and near six figure deaths in the US alone. At current levels, the market is not historically "cheap" in any way, regardless of pandemic. The median time period for a bear market is 18 months.

That being said, like you and Mr. Bogle, I know nothing and am buy and hold. I liquidated a portion of my taxable account (balanced fund) to bolster cash reserves with potential job losses, but matched with related moves into equities in my retirement account. Stay safe everyone.
I think this plays out more or less like past crashes. We get back 50% or so of our losses relatively rapidly (this is probably happening right now), and the last 50% will take time as your describe, 6-18 months or so. I don't think we went down enough to warrant a 2+ year recovery, maybe if it was 50%, but not the -33.7% we had.

As for the macro economic indicators you are noting, I would encourage you to examine the time delta between equity valuation recovery, and the recovery of those metrics. Probably 2/3 if the declines will be recovered fairly rapidly once the economies of the world "reboot" -- remember this isn't going to be a great depression, governments have learned and reacted much differently. Stimulus came fast and furious, with support for both Wall & Main streets. The last 1/3 .... that will probably take some time.

vipertom1970
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vipertom1970 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:43 pm

LOL, I am starting to see more threads of "what do I do with cash now "

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:49 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:00 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
I've given up mentally. I just want the damned average price for the month. Too much volatility for me to want to buy more than a handful of shares at a time. I'd be super annoyed to see my month's contribution drop by five percent tomorrow. Let alone possibly ten percent next month.
If that annoys you then you shouldn’t invest at all as you don’t have the right mentality for it

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:50 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:49 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:00 pm
Forester wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:52 pm
Fading rally - if SPX closes below 2700 this counts as a down day, even if technically the market is up. Team Bear has stronger hands - we'll buy below 2000, no higher 8-)
I've given up mentally. I just want the damned average price for the month. Too much volatility for me to want to buy more than a handful of shares at a time. I'd be super annoyed to see my month's contribution drop by five percent tomorrow. Let alone possibly ten percent next month.
If that annoys you then you shouldn’t invest at all as you don’t have the right mentality for it
Oh, I didn't know I had a choice.... guess I won't retire...

Most useless comment I've read all day.

thelateinvestor43
Posts: 626
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:55 pm

mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:26 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:04 pm
atdharris wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:37 am
Corsair wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:24 am
Jim Cramer is saying he doesn't understand why the market is moving up, darn we have bottomed :oops:
To be fair, neither do I, especially after the move we saw on Monday. I had some extra cash I want to deploy, but I was thinking things would drop after the huge run. The market seems to be pricing in that the economy will be open May 1st.
Yup completely confused as well. So I’ve resolved to split up my monthly buys to daily buys. I’ll get good prices, and I’ll get bad prices, but overall, I’ll just get the month’s average price. I see it as being less risky than a lump sum each month given the extreme volatility.
I'm waiting for a down day to start buying, but as we all have seen, there really hasn't been a down day.
Don't worry, probably around 2900 you'll get one :D . At this rate it will be Friday or Monday.
Don't get so excited. We're going back down next week. Maybe tomorrow.

ValuationsMatter
Posts: 341
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ValuationsMatter » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:00 pm

mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm

Indeed. If you can believe it: my account value (including new money) is at the same level it was mid-November 2019 (no that's not a typo).

What I find fascinating is the knots all the market timers are now in, for a move that was supposed to make you sleep at night, it sure seems to do the opposite from where I stand. Now they have the agonizing choice of deciding when to get back in, which itself is a stomach turning choice. I figure we are getting into the territory where a lot of people capitulated (~March 11th lows), so the big damage to the market timing portfolios will begin soon -- you can already see threads popping up with people wondering how to get back in.

Buy and hold people.... we just stand here and twiddle our thumbs, buying up shares cheap as much as possible to regain our desired AAs.

Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.
Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, or you might throw out your shoulder. After seeing only a 3-4% drop in total investments, because I chose to DCA back in instead of pulling the trigger all at once, I reached my long-term AA (70/30) on April 1st, and am now up significantly, this year. I've posted about it in another thread. What's nice is I still have plenty more left, ~30%, to deploy if the bear market downturn comes to fruition.

I thought for a couple of hours today about selling off 10% of my portfolio, because I have a strong inclination that this is not the end of unexpected economic/socio-political ramifications. But in the end, I'm very well positioned to profit off of the down turn if it's over, or stay insulated from and take advantage of another sharp down turn with a nice chunk of my portfolio.

thelateinvestor43
Posts: 626
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm

Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.

Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks?

Movie Theaters?
Bars and restaurants?
Planes?

Watch people go back to life as usual and watch the counts go right back up fast!

We're living in a whole new world UNTIL a vaccine is found. I heard an expert on infectious disease say that a vaccine is just "happy talk".
Last edited by thelateinvestor43 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Triple digit golfer
Posts: 5337
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:04 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
So how are you going to profit off of this huge crash that is guaranteed to come?

JohnnyFive
Posts: 181
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JohnnyFive » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:05 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
Couldn't agree more. I'm a small business owner (retail) and if you think the worst is behind us (even if you think that the market is forward looking enough and has this all "priced in") you are soon to be rather extremely disappointed. Especially given the fact that most "non-essential" retail is at least 3 weeks away from even being ALLOWED to open up again to customers.

Some (not all) small businesses and even medium and large businesses will soon start defaulting on their rents or mortgages. Alot of "bad stuff" is still to come. Don't kid yourselves.

User avatar
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 588
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:05 pm

S&P now in a bull market too.

Actually, S&P is back to where it was at only ~10 months ago in early June 2019. Which just seems...weird.

Corsair
Posts: 377
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:57 am
Location: WA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:07 pm

Jerome Powell doing work! :moneybag

I locked in some gains.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

fatcoffeedrinker
Posts: 213
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm

JohnnyFive wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:05 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
Couldn't agree more. I'm a small business owner (retail) and if you think the worst is behind us (even if you think that the market is forward looking enough and has this all "priced in") you are soon to be rather extremely disappointed. Especially given the fact that most "non-essential" retail is at least 3 weeks away from even being ALLOWED to open up again to customers.

Some (not all) small businesses and even medium and large businesses will soon start defaulting on their rents or mortgages. Alot of "bad stuff" is still to come. Don't kid yourselves.
If only the big money investors moving the market had retail analysts...oh, wait.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 949
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.

Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks?

Movie Theaters?
Bars and restaurants?
Planes?

Watch people go back to life as usual and watch the counts go right back up fast!

We're living in a whole new world UNTIL a vaccine is found. I heard an expert on infectious disease say that a vaccine is just "happy talk".
That’s all priced in, everybody knows all that.
I’m guessing that an “end of days” scenario hasn’t been priced in, but who cares about money in that situation?
Last edited by minimalistmarc on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

thelateinvestor43
Posts: 626
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:10 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:04 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
So how are you going to profit off of this huge crash that is guaranteed to come?
I could care less about profiting. For one, I don't have hundreds of thousands like most people here and two I'm not going to be so gullible to believe everything is going to be fine.

JohnnyFive
Posts: 181
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JohnnyFive » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:13 pm

fatcoffeedrinker wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm
JohnnyFive wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:05 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
Couldn't agree more. I'm a small business owner (retail) and if you think the worst is behind us (even if you think that the market is forward looking enough and has this all "priced in") you are soon to be rather extremely disappointed. Especially given the fact that most "non-essential" retail is at least 3 weeks away from even being ALLOWED to open up again to customers.

Some (not all) small businesses and even medium and large businesses will soon start defaulting on their rents or mortgages. Alot of "bad stuff" is still to come. Don't kid yourselves.
If only the big money investors moving the market had retail analysts...oh, wait.

We will revisit. I promise.

BW1985
Posts: 2046
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:14 pm

ValuationsMatter wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:00 pm
mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm

Indeed. If you can believe it: my account value (including new money) is at the same level it was mid-November 2019 (no that's not a typo).

What I find fascinating is the knots all the market timers are now in, for a move that was supposed to make you sleep at night, it sure seems to do the opposite from where I stand. Now they have the agonizing choice of deciding when to get back in, which itself is a stomach turning choice. I figure we are getting into the territory where a lot of people capitulated (~March 11th lows), so the big damage to the market timing portfolios will begin soon -- you can already see threads popping up with people wondering how to get back in.

Buy and hold people.... we just stand here and twiddle our thumbs, buying up shares cheap as much as possible to regain our desired AAs.

Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.
Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, or you might throw out your shoulder. After seeing only a 3-4% drop in total investments, because I chose to DCA back in instead of pulling the trigger all at once, I reached my long-term AA (70/30) on April 1st, and am now up significantly, this year. I've posted about it in another thread. What's nice is I still have plenty more left, ~30%, to deploy if the bear market downturn comes to fruition.

I thought for a couple of hours today about selling off 10% of my portfolio, because I have a strong inclination that this is not the end of unexpected economic/socio-political ramifications. But in the end, I'm very well positioned to profit off of the down turn if it's over, or stay insulated from and take advantage of another sharp down turn with a nice chunk of my portfolio.
I'm confused, if you're at your desired 70/30 AA then how do you have another 30% to deploy? Unless you're saying you'll change your AA based on market price?
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?

thelateinvestor43
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Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:15 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.

Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks?

Movie Theaters?
Bars and restaurants?
Planes?

Watch people go back to life as usual and watch the counts go right back up fast!

We're living in a whole new world UNTIL a vaccine is found. I heard an expert on infectious disease say that a vaccine is just "happy talk".
That’s all priced in, everybody knows all that.
Great, I guess we'll be at SP 4000 by the end of the year! We can start flying again and go back to life as usual. I guess all the doctors just overreacted. I'm going to book a cruise on Carnival for this fall! The entire future is already priced in!!

minimalistmarc
Posts: 949
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:18 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:15 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.

Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks?

Movie Theaters?
Bars and restaurants?
Planes?

Watch people go back to life as usual and watch the counts go right back up fast!

We're living in a whole new world UNTIL a vaccine is found. I heard an expert on infectious disease say that a vaccine is just "happy talk".
That’s all priced in, everybody knows all that.
Great, I guess we'll be at SP 4000 by the end of the year! We can start flying again and go back to life as usual. I guess all the doctors just overreacted. I'm going to book a cruise on Carnival for this fall! The entire future is already priced in!!
Nope. I’m a hospital physician and it really is terrible times. That doesn’t mean the stock market cares.

If you have no interest in accepting the fact that you can’t time the market, why do you hang around a non market timing forum. You’re not going to convince anybody here of anything.

Many people are trying to educate you, but your hardened attitude is becoming a little bit embarassing.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 2693
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Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:18 pm

We have equal likelihood of being in the free fall thread tomorrow...

Triple digit golfer
Posts: 5337
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:19 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:10 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:04 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.
So how are you going to profit off of this huge crash that is guaranteed to come?
I could care less about profiting. For one, I don't have hundreds of thousands like most people here and two I'm not going to be so gullible to believe everything is going to be fine.
Okay. So, how are you going to invest if you believe so strongly that things are going to get significantly worse?

User avatar
J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:24 pm

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:59 pm
Did you buy the watches as an investment? Or, do you collect them?
Both, I belong to a Rolex forum and know enough about them to tell the real from fake. I figured the gold would always be worth something but I never thought it would be worth more than I paid for the watches.

I only used "mad money", that "mad money" investment made it easer to ride out the virus crash. I hope those who didn't stick with their investment asset allocation have learned a valuable lesion about selling low.

Today was a personal turning point. My VOO buy on February 18 at 308.95 is down 18.46%, my buy on March 23 at 201 up 25.34%. I'm still down form my high but that last buy is defenatly in a bull market. If VOO stays above 199 for three or four months I'll be happy.
Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:04 pm
Agreed. We're retired and I'm STILL buying... cola pensions > expenses.
We have a winner. :moneybag
Not many of us left. Having a guarantied future income makes it easer to take more risk for more reward. :beer
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:10 pm
I don't have hundreds of thousands like most people here...
People are telling you why you don't have that much; if you keep trying to time the market you never will.

Corsair
Posts: 377
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Location: WA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:27 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:15 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land.

Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks?

Movie Theaters?
Bars and restaurants?
Planes?

Watch people go back to life as usual and watch the counts go right back up fast!

We're living in a whole new world UNTIL a vaccine is found. I heard an expert on infectious disease say that a vaccine is just "happy talk".
That’s all priced in, everybody knows all that.
Great, I guess we'll be at SP 4000 by the end of the year! We can start flying again and go back to life as usual. I guess all the doctors just overreacted. I'm going to book a cruise on Carnival for this fall! The entire future is already priced in!!
None of that matters if there is are buyer(s) the market will continue to go up.

"In effect, the Fed is giving the Treasury access to its printing press. This means that, in the extreme, the administration would be free to use its control, not the Fed’s control, of these SPVs to instruct the Fed to print more money so it could buy securities and hand out loans in an effort to ramp financial markets higher going into the election." - Bloomberg article
Last edited by Corsair on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

index245
Posts: 92
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by index245 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:28 pm

mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:38 pm
index245 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:27 pm
mrspock wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:15 pm
...
Farewell COVID-19 crash of 2020! I feel like I barely got to know you.
Is it over? Maybe. But I'll truly be stunned if we are even flat from this point for the next six months or even two years. It would take an amazing ability for the markets to ignore poor corporate earnings, potential inflation, near-depression levels of unemployment, defaults in both rentals and mortgages, and near six figure deaths in the US alone. At current levels, the market is not historically "cheap" in any way, regardless of pandemic. The median time period for a bear market is 18 months.

That being said, like you and Mr. Bogle, I know nothing and am buy and hold. I liquidated a portion of my taxable account (balanced fund) to bolster cash reserves with potential job losses, but matched with related moves into equities in my retirement account. Stay safe everyone.
I think this plays out more or less like past crashes. We get back 50% or so of our losses relatively rapidly (this is probably happening right now), and the last 50% will take time as your describe, 6-18 months or so. I don't think we went down enough to warrant a 2+ year recovery, maybe if it was 50%, but not the -33.7% we had.

As for the macro economic indicators you are noting, I would encourage you to examine the time delta between equity valuation recovery, and the recovery of those metrics. Probably 2/3 if the declines will be recovered fairly rapidly once the economies of the world "reboot" -- remember this isn't going to be a great depression, governments have learned and reacted much differently. Stimulus came fast and furious, with support for both Wall & Main streets. The last 1/3 .... that will probably take some time.
Fair enough. If your note is true, we've already gotten back the 50%. 6 - 18 months to go to reach the previous record high. Unfortunately, there are too many variables involved for me to entirely agree with this.

The virus itself is the main variable and truly nobody knows the answer. All of these scenarios may or may not happen, but any could change the course of the market if it was "unexpected." For the sake of discussion: Multi-stage contagion through the US (coasts flattening out but rips through the "center" of the country in coming months), additional shutdown needed in the fall when the second wave hits, or delays in developing a vaccine. In terms of the stimulus: short term it has been good and necessary, but what if it wasn't enough? Will we eventually pay a price for printing money and accumulating huge debt? What about the risky corporate debt unraveling (multiple threads on this)? The original highs of the market were heavily influenced by stock buybacks (drying up), corporate debt, and the most recent round of tax cuts. There is too much out there for me to call bottom.

Our opinion is different but it seems the approach is the same. Stay the course either way.
Last edited by index245 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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