U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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potatopancake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by potatopancake »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
Ditto. I don't care about the death numbers or numbers of new cases. We are seeing a fundamental change in society that will persist until this thing is beat (ie, vaccine).

China has this thing beat from a healthcare utilization overload sense. People drive to work and go home. I doubt there is much in the way of entertainment business now. Here is traffic index for their two largest cities:

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-in ... i-traffic/

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-in ... g-traffic/

Wuhan appears to still be in near total lockdown:

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-in ... n-traffic/
New Providence
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by New Providence »

DaftInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:33 pm With the Market up nearly 8% today - I wonder if I will be able to find Toilet Paper at the stores this week. Do we think there is a correlation? :)
The correlation might be with unemployment. Are we at 10 million unemployed? If we get to 15 million the Market will skyrocket! :twisted:
Alchemist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Alchemist »

Kinda of shocked by the huge move up, and futures tomorrow are already up 3% :shock:

Maybe we are past the bottom? That or this dead cat has wings...
1rl9DS5gl2
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This sure doesn't feel like a bull market but......

Post by 1rl9DS5gl2 »

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

The S&P closed at a low of 2237 on 3/23. If the next bull market begins when we've come off the bear market low by 20% then a bull run will begin if we close today above 2684, which seems entirely possible given what the futures look like at this point (8:30 AM). What am I missing? Could we really come out of a bear market in about 2 weeks?
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Good news. Hopefully the alarmists and dooms dayers will return to their caves soon. There will be pent up demand and we'll be back in business this summer.

Weak businesses will fail and the strong will prevail. Just part of the cycle. Looking forward to the dooms day accounts on here disappearing or back to reddit.
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magicrat
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Re: This sure doesn't feel like a bull market but......

Post by magicrat »

Bull market and bear market are nonsense terms. You are really asking "can stocks go up 20% in 2 weeks" - the answer is yes. Stocks are volatile.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged 1rl9DS5gl2's thread into a similar discussion.

Let's try and keep two threads for the stock market.

- Upward trends: U.S. stocks continue to soar! (this one)
- Downward trends: U.S. stocks in free fall
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minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
I love your fear. It allows me to continue to buy cheap equities for as long as possible. Keep it up please. I’ll be happy to sell you some for much higher prices when you bring yourself back from planet gloom.

My experience of the last crash, before I became a bogler, is that people were screaming dead cat bounce from the bottom all the way to the top (for 10 years +). Do you really want that to be you?
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

And just think, a month ago he was asking what a mutual fund is. Now, he's a soothsayer. The market whisperer.
A fool and your money are soon partners
tk1978
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tk1978 »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:28 am Good news. Hopefully the alarmists and dooms dayers will return to their caves soon. There will be pent up demand and we'll be back in business this summer.

Weak businesses will fail and the strong will prevail. Just part of the cycle. Looking forward to the dooms day accounts on here disappearing or back to reddit.
Lol
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Bluce
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Re: This sure doesn't feel like a bull market but......

Post by Bluce »

magicrat wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:33 am Bull market and bear market are nonsense terms. You are really asking "can stocks go up 20% in 2 weeks" - the answer is yes. Stocks are volatile.
I agree. They only mean something after the fact, when seen in the rear view mirror when they can be officially categorized.

Market prices are driven by millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions every moment. They may follow what they did yesterday (buy, sell, do nothing), they may react to today's news, they may react to expected future events.

A million X a million X another million = many parts, moving independently. Good luck predicting it. There are more daily stock market decisions than there are dollars in the latest bailout budgets.
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carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

4/7/2020, Wow, just woke up in the morning and thought I was dreaming looking at the DOW up 800 points :beer
Last edited by carminered2019 on Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Tim_in_GA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tim_in_GA »

Giving up the gain quickly now.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:28 am
goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
I predict you won't be. NO restaurants will be open this WHOLE SUMMER! Just watch.
You have come a long way in 5 months.
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:13 am Hi,

Regrettably, at 46 I have just begun to start a Roth Ira at Fidelity. I plan on working at least another 20 years, and maybe never retiring really as I don't think I can afford to. I don't make a lot of money and I'm single and have no kids. Is it too late to start a Roth? I realize I'm not going to retire a millionaire, etc. I live and take care of my mother at the moment.

I have about $400, maybe $600, a month at least to throw into an IRA (roth) and have a larger amount that I inherited from my grandmother that I can also put in at $6000 a year. I am totally new to this. I did create an account, etc, but have not yet begun to fund it.

Can someone help give me some tips on the funds that would be best to select, etc or is that a subjective issue? For example, mutual funds or etfs, and how many.
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SouthernFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SouthernFIRE »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
Keep holding out for 1800. It'll be here any day now. As for me, I'll bet on the human spirit, our scientists, and technology continuing to improve our lives and drive the market higher.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
Did you get out of the market? If so, are you still on the sidelines waiting to get back in?
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MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
Bro, this is your first crash? It’s a good learning opportunity. I suggest writing down your daily feeling and S&P level. Look back at it in the next few months. Then use what you learn in future bear markets.
flaccidsteele
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by flaccidsteele »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?
Yes

People are people. Once the lockdown is lifted, people will go everywhere

Tourist sites packed in China after lockdown lifted
Large numbers of people flocked to popular tourists sites and major cities across China over the country's holiday weekend, despite warnings from health authorities that the risk posed by the coronavirus pandemic remains far from over.

Such was the rush to get into the popular tourist spot, that at 7.48 a.m., authorities took the unusual step of issuing a notice declaring that the park had reached its 20,000 person daily capacity, and would not be accepting any more visitors
Americans will do the same
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

FOMO bull trap. The next leg down will start soon :beer
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:32 am Wow, so many people who can predict the future in here!

I'll keep buying and holding. I plan on living another 60 years.
I know... it's just as bad to predict everything will be fine as to predict everything is doomed.

We don't know.

It could crash again tomorrow, this could just be a bear market rally, or last week could be the new lows.

We don't know.

This is why market-timing is hard. Buy and hold for the long run, and you don't have to know which way the market is going in the short-term.

Because we don't know.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Forester wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:42 am FOMO bull trap. The next leg down will start soon :beer
Yay, more opportunity to pick up cheap shares from the fearful, weak hands :)
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

The bottom likely isn't in until small cap beats TSM by a couple of percent over a week. S&P 500 leading the charge smells of FOMO & complacency.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

SouthernFIRE wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:23 am As for me, I'll bet on the human spirit, our scientists, and technology continuing to improve our lives and drive the market higher.
+1
this is exactly why I invest and believe in the market. I dumped ever shinny penny I had into the market and I even sold back my brand new high end sport car to throw into the market last couple weeks. I smell a new sport car soon. :D
Last edited by carminered2019 on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

vipertom1970 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:49 am
SouthernFIRE wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:23 am As for me, I'll bet on the human spirit, our scientists, and technology continuing to improve our lives and drive the market higher.
+1
this is exactly why I invest and believe in the market. I dumped ever shinny penny I had into the market and I even sold my back my brand new high end sport car to throw into the market last couple weeks. I smell a new sport car soon. :D

:sharebeer

If you're ever taking people for rides, let me know. j/k
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan »

Forester wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:42 am FOMO bull trap. The next leg down will start soon :beer
Based on the crazy pessimistic tone on here recently, this is my thought as well. After a 10% up day and then some steady up days, I would be surprised if all the market timers stayed in cash, or doubled-down with a nice holding in SPXU :twisted:.
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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Steve Reading »

Forester wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:29 am The bottom likely isn't in until small cap beats TSM by a couple of percent over a week. S&P 500 leading the charge smells of FOMO & complacency.
S&P 500 leading the charge? SCs beat S&P 500 yesterday and are beating it today 0_o
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cpan00b
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cpan00b »

I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Go for it and let us know or better yet short the market. I assume you are still fairly young with low 1 comma portfolio.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Stock money should be long-term money.

Quit worrying about Q2 or Q3.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
anon3838
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon3838 »

mrspock wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:34 am My Amazon TP order was shipped and arrives tomorrow. I'm taking this as a bullish sign. Once the hand sanitizer is back in stock, 3000 will follow soon I bet.
which brand TP is in stock? I keep checking but haven't found anything on amazon.
anon3838
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon3838 »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:28 am
goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
I predict you won't be. NO restaurants will be open this WHOLE SUMMER! Just watch.
I've been ordering curb-side 2-3 days per week from my favorite restaurant. Last week I got the very last curb delivery time, when I called in to pre-order at 3pm.

Yesterday I made my 2nd month's payments to my house cleaner, and the person who cuts my hair. They're both technically unemployed, but a lot of people who are "unemployed" are still receiving payment from some of their customers. My children are continuing their private music lessons, over video conferencing.

And as I type this I can hear two lawn mowers and blowers, being operated by the gardeners of my neighborhood.

This obviously is not all encompassing, but in my own little world, most of the self-employed people and restaurants I enjoy (and appreciate) are adapting.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:45 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Stock money should be long-term money.

Quit worrying about Q2 or Q3.
Having 2-2.5 years of expenses in bonds (which at my young-ish age of 35 and after a market decline is almost 25% of my portfolio) is wonderful. I am at such a place of peace not caring about short-term stock performance. I feel secure. If I lose my job today, I know that I can take a step back, breathe, and not worry. My bills will get paid, my family will get fed, and I will not have to sell a single stock to do so for at least 2 years, probably more like 2.5. Depends on COBRA premiums, really. But I digress.

Listening to wise Bogleheads back in 2009 when I joined here telling me to always hold bonds was probably the best investment decision I ever made. One of the first thing I read when learning about investing was Bogle's advice about holding age in bonds. Yes, I could have had more stocks in a long bull market and ultimately a larger nest egg today. But I also could have panicked a few times when I was scared that I was going to lose my job (not due to recession, but due to company being sold to a private seller and my current company sold to private equity). I could have had sleepless nights. I could have sold half my stocks for bonds in March of 2009 and never got back in at my current AA. Who knows what I would have done? It's easy to say in hindsight, but at the moment, nobody knows what they'll do until they're in the situation. At that point, it is too late.

Retiredjg rings a bell here. She always seems to recommend at least 20% bonds. I have seen here do it a thousand times and it hits home every time I see her post it to a new member.

The feeling of missing out slightly on gains with a healthy bond/cash allocation is far better than the feeling of a stock-heavy portfolio tanking 30%, fearing job loss, and wondering how long you'll be able to feed your family and how much of a loss you'll take on your equities that you fear you'll have to sell.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:26 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:45 am The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
Did you get out of the market? If so, are you still on the sidelines waiting to get back in?
No. I'm rather proud of myself. I didn't really sell much. I don't have a lot like most of you people, but I am still basically close to what I had (95% I'd say) from Feb 19 high. "Losing" money doesn't really bother me now, as I realize it'll mostly come back some day, hopefully.

I do have about $30k sitting in my savings, but I'm keeping most of that as a EF. If prices on FSKAX Total Market get down to $50 or so a share I may throw in $10k, I don't know.

I hovered from 40/60 to now 60/40 about. I have $7k in MM fund and was waiting to put it into the equity side. I have been buying into the equity side over the last month little by little though when it was $68 a share, etc.

I'm not afraid to get up to 70/30 now. To me it's about accumulating shares and hoping that someday we'll reach 3386 again and or more. If people don't have that hope then what's the point of investing? Isn't "hoping" for appreciation more or less the point? Unless you're a day trader I guess.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I agree. I think things will be different forever, but we will adapt. After 9/11, we had to change as a society. Metal detectors at public stadiums, increased security at airports, etc. We adapt well and things become the new normal.

I think we'll likely see some increased precautions, at least for a while. Maybe people will wear masks in public more often. Maybe stores and restaurants will continue to limit number of customers at a time. Maybe group sizes will be limited at certain events. Maybe deep cleans for certain businesses will become part of the normal. Maybe people will use sanitizer more often, wash their hands more often, be more cognizant of touching their faces. Maybe hand shaking will be a thing of the past.

Who knows? All I do know is that we will adapt and life will go on. There is no alternative.
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I just don't see things opening up any time soon. I can't see people working in offices for at least until June, if that. I would be VERY afraid to go back to an office and be around 30 or 40 people every day. I would NOT go into restaurants or bars. Heck, I get creeped out just going to the supermarket now! I wear my N95 mask and gloves, get in and get the heck out quick. It's sad, but I think it's the new norm.

I wash my hands about 30 times a day literally. I need more hand cream!
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I just don't see things opening up any time soon. I can't see people working in offices for at least until June, if that. I would be VERY afraid to go back to an office and be around 30 or 40 people every day. I would NOT go into restaurants or bars. Heck, I get creeped out just going to the supermarket now! I wear my N95 mask and gloves, get in and get the heck out quick. It's sad, but I think it's the new norm.

I wash my hands about 30 times a day literally. I need more hand cream!
I think a lot of people project how they feel onto society as a whole (myself not excluded from this). The more bearish folks seem to be the ones that personally are more worried about their everyday lives (I think you are in this camp) and then assume that everyone will feel the same way, hence your pessimism. I am in the other camp. I like going to the grocery store just to get out of the house (and I am not young -- 51 -- but have no higher risk conditions). I can't wait for the stay-at-home orders to be lifted so I can start doing things again, including restaurants. Will I be more careful? Absolutely. But I will start a normal life again. Which makes me more optimistic -- perhaps incorrectly -- because I believe there are a lot of people in my camp.
Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP »

goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
Possible since every state is it’s own government. However, reopening any hospitality businesses before a vaccine or cure or zero case count is strongly courting the emergence of a second wave.
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I just don't see things opening up any time soon. I can't see people working in offices for at least until June, if that. I would be VERY afraid to go back to an office and be around 30 or 40 people every day. I would NOT go into restaurants or bars. Heck, I get creeped out just going to the supermarket now! I wear my N95 mask and gloves, get in and get the heck out quick. It's sad, but I think it's the new norm.

I wash my hands about 30 times a day literally. I need more hand cream!
I think you are more anxious than most people.

This is exhibited in your fears above and your fear of investing.

I’m a little neurotic too. But as a hospital doctor find your fear of going into an office slightly amusing.

Most people will embrace their old lifestyle as soon as allowed
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

The bulls are chasing the bears and visa a versa in the last hour of trading. Who has what priced in. :confused
MDfan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MDfan »

minimalistmarc wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:29 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I just don't see things opening up any time soon. I can't see people working in offices for at least until June, if that. I would be VERY afraid to go back to an office and be around 30 or 40 people every day. I would NOT go into restaurants or bars. Heck, I get creeped out just going to the supermarket now! I wear my N95 mask and gloves, get in and get the heck out quick. It's sad, but I think it's the new norm.

I wash my hands about 30 times a day literally. I need more hand cream!
I think you are more anxious than most people.

This is exhibited in your fears above and your fear of investing.

I’m a little neurotic too. But as a hospital doctor find your fear of going into an office slightly amusing.

Most people will embrace their old lifestyle as soon as allowed
There will definitely be a transition period, but I see things getting back to normal fairly quickly as well when this is all over. The real question is when that "all over" time will be.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

vipertom1970 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:05 am 4/7/2020, Wow, just woke up in the morning and thought I was dreaming looking at the DOW up 800 points :beer
LOL, so much for up 800 points in the morning.……..time for a nap on the Westcoast.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:02 pm The bulls are chasing the bears and visa a versa in the last hour of trading. Who has what priced in. :confused
Stock prices are priced in.

Shh! Don't let the secret get out! Who knows what might happen? Prices may no longer be priced in.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:29 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:45 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Stock money should be long-term money.

Quit worrying about Q2 or Q3.
Having 2-2.5 years of expenses in bonds (which at my young-ish age of 35 and after a market decline is almost 25% of my portfolio) is wonderful. I am at such a place of peace not caring about short-term stock performance. I feel secure. If I lose my job today, I know that I can take a step back, breathe, and not worry. My bills will get paid, my family will get fed, and I will not have to sell a single stock to do so for at least 2 years, probably more like 2.5. Depends on COBRA premiums, really. But I digress.
I would be concerned, at your age, of spending down your bond principle even in an emergency. For me, I would view it as a very last resort, like before having to eat rats or being kicked out of your home.

No? :confused
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Ride it out, the way trading went in the last hour there are many like you. Remember for every seller there is a buyer. I do hope your asset allocation is proper for your situation.

My last buy of VOO on March 23 at 201 is up 21.22%. Not long ago I too was losing principal not long ago but I'm going to stick to what I have been doing. :greedy
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calvin+hobbes
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by calvin+hobbes »

Bluce wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:29 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:45 pm
cpan00b wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm I've been all about staying the course but man is this market irrational. If it goes up another 2-3% to S&P 2850 I'll finally break even which is enticing me to sell everything out and sit on the sideline with cash. I'll still be out 3 years worth of investing gains at that point but at least no losses? If I truly believe that market will go back down to at least S&P 2200 with Q2 and Q3 earnings results...
Stock money should be long-term money.

Quit worrying about Q2 or Q3.
Having 2-2.5 years of expenses in bonds (which at my young-ish age of 35 and after a market decline is almost 25% of my portfolio) is wonderful. I am at such a place of peace not caring about short-term stock performance. I feel secure. If I lose my job today, I know that I can take a step back, breathe, and not worry. My bills will get paid, my family will get fed, and I will not have to sell a single stock to do so for at least 2 years, probably more like 2.5. Depends on COBRA premiums, really. But I digress.
I would be concerned, at your age, of spending down your bond principle even in an emergency. For me, I would view it as a very last resort, like before having to eat rats or being kicked out of your home.

No? :confused
Would you recommend he sell equities instead?
Iridium
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Iridium »

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:24 pm Possible since every state is it’s own government. However, reopening any hospitality businesses before a vaccine or cure or zero case count is strongly courting the emergence of a second wave.
South Korea stayed open though their wave with minimal loss of life though really good preparation, testing, and tracing. COVID moved quickly, catching the world off guard. A second wave won't be able to do the same.
anon3838
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon3838 »

minimalistmarc wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:29 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:32 pm Life will go on. I have faith in our scientists that we will adapt and move on from this period of our lives. I am not convinced the world will remain shut down more than another month. Perhaps we won't get back to how live was in January immediately, but I think we can get back to restaurants and bars at half capacity and people returning to work. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but a lot has changed since mid-March, and we still have 23 days left in April.
I just don't see things opening up any time soon. I can't see people working in offices for at least until June, if that. I would be VERY afraid to go back to an office and be around 30 or 40 people every day. I would NOT go into restaurants or bars. Heck, I get creeped out just going to the supermarket now! I wear my N95 mask and gloves, get in and get the heck out quick. It's sad, but I think it's the new norm.

I wash my hands about 30 times a day literally. I need more hand cream!
I think you are more anxious than most people.

This is exhibited in your fears above and your fear of investing.

I’m a little neurotic too. But as a hospital doctor find your fear of going into an office slightly amusing.

Most people will embrace their old lifestyle as soon as allowed
Those of us with children will be thrust back into normal whether we like it or not when school activities resume. Not just public school, but also extracurricular activities.
Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Looks like Mr. Market took care of my need to rebalance, at least for now.

Short-term reserves 0.0%

Bonds 50.7%

Stocks 49.3%

Other 0.0%

We are good for the next advance or decline that comes down the road.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

anon3838 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:05 pm
mrspock wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:34 am My Amazon TP order was shipped and arrives tomorrow. I'm taking this as a bullish sign. Once the hand sanitizer is back in stock, 3000 will follow soon I bet.
which brand TP is in stock? I keep checking but haven't found anything on amazon.
Cottonelle Ultra Comfortcare — the stuff that clogs your toilet if you use more than 4-5 squares :) . I snagged it at about 2:30am on Friday or Saturday morning. Just keep watching, and then ignore the ship dates if it’s within 4 weeks. This was originally schedule for late April but arrived today.

You can also get commercial TP pretty easily via staples or Office Depot if you are into your TP emergency reserves. Good luck!
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