U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:51 am
BW1985 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Agreed.
+1 , I think they will. This is going to be less bad than people think.
Agreed. I honestly believe there WILL be a vaccine - LOTS of very reputable companies pursuing it. Tragically, there will also be quite a lot of death prior to a working and widely distributed vaccine, though.
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

New highs this year! S&P 4000 with 10 million people unemployed, no airline travel, no restaurants, and no clothing stores open! Yay! Life is good!! :moneybag :shock:
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

BW1985 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Agreed.
it's ok, couple more days like this the FOMO guys will have to get back in to jack up the markets even higher.
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpsetRaptor »

Corsair wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:02 am Has no one noticed prior weekend SARS-2 stats have also been low? Could it be some labs aren't open on weekends LOL.
I noticed that too. Today new case numbers in Italy and Spain were good and Germany was great, but they have all been dipping on the weekends/Sundays then go back up a little. Overall trendline is better, regardless, but it's a curiosity.
Last edited by UpsetRaptor on Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Gufomel
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Gufomel »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:52 pm
RonSwanson wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:26 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:33 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:30 am Futures gains have held overnight.

I’m sensing some green shoots of optimism. It’s still pretty dark, but the dawn seems to be coming.
Hmm.... maybe I will hold off a rebalancing transaction that I had planned to do today.
I've rescheduled mine to tomorrow. With volatility so high, we can expect another down day sometime soon.
Down yes of course, but down compared to where we are today? Maybe.
I have very little faith that we break out of the 2400/2650 range this week. But if we breakout tomorrow, oh well. Not like I was able to buy at 2450 today either.
Try today :P
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SmileyFace
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SmileyFace »

With the Market up nearly 8% today - I wonder if I will be able to find Toilet Paper at the stores this week. Do we think there is a correlation? :)
InvestingGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by InvestingGeek »

:shock: Are people in cash watching this? Up nearly 8% today! That's on top of an already good week. 8-)

We might be going up and down a bit for a while but general trend looks to be upwards from here on.

Yes, there is coming economic pain but the critical point is that it's known already. The sellers have all sold out so there's no one left to sell. Now, unless we get more unexpected bad news, the bulls have it :sharebeer .

(always the optimist :D ).
anon3838
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon3838 »

DaftInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:33 pm With the Market up nearly 8% today - I wonder if I will be able to find Toilet Paper at the stores this week. Do we think there is a correlation? :)
As of yesterday, Sunday 4/5/20, there was a long line waiting for Costco to open, and toilet paper sold out early, as is the new normal.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

DaftInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:33 pm With the Market up nearly 8% today - I wonder if I will be able to find Toilet Paper at the stores this week. Do we think there is a correlation? :)
The best explanation I have read on the TP shortage is that we are making as much as ever, but that there are two distinct markets in the US -- commercial/institutional and consumer. They have different manufacturers, different supply chains and there is very little leakage from one market to the other.

With so many people staying home institutional use is down, but consumer use is up. There is an oversupply in the institutional market and a shortage in the consumer market. The thing that will resolve this is an end to lockdowns and a return to work. Not much correlation to the market, but a lot to whether businesses/restaurants/hotels are operating near capacity or are stuck in the doldrums.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:52 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:44 pm Market is melting up near the close.
Is there a circuit breaker at +7%?
I don’t believe there are circuit breakers when the market is rising. There are circuit breakers when it is falling.

However, the futures market has trading halts on both the upside and the downside.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:52 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:44 pm Market is melting up near the close.
Is there a circuit breaker at +7%?
I think if it happens in the last 35 minutes they let it ride.

How are all you short seller's do'n? :mrgreen:
SPXU
Important:For individual securities, circuit breakers can be triggered regardless of whether the price is increasing or decreasing. By contrast, circuit breakers that relate to broad market indices are only triggered based on downward price movements.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
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fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.

“Hoping” is a very emotional approach to investing and likely to result in behavioural error.

The market does not care what you hope for. It does not care about jim Cramer or any financial news’s well informed opinion.

Choose an asset allocation (no more than 60% equities for somebody as anxious/risk averse as you) then lump or DCA
Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
At 1800, that'd be a 30%+ drop from here. You may be 'hoping' for awhile.

Disclosure: I've been buying small chunks (25 share lots) of VOO (and a few individual stocks) on the way down.
billy269
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by billy269 »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:16 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm

Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
At 1800, that'd be a 30%+ drop from here. You may be 'hoping' for awhile.

Disclosure: I've been buying small chunks (25 share lots) of VOO (and a few individual stocks) on the way down.
What about buying chunks on the way up? I had no problem DCAing on the way down and got about half of my savings into the market. On the way up it is way more difficult to pull the trigger for me. If I miss a sale on normal goods, I wait until the next sale or do not buy. I have to really force myself not to have this same mindset about investing. It is really hard.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

billy269 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:31 pm What about buying chunks on the way up? I had no problem DCAing on the way down and got about half of my savings into the market. On the way up it is way more difficult to pull the trigger for me. If I miss a sale on normal goods, I wait until the next sale or do not buy. I have to really force myself not to have this same mindset about investing. It is really hard.
I have a set amount I invest every month. On the way up my month's amount is the limit; on the way down if I run out I will borrow from my venture capital fund. I'm into myself for four months; hopefully I will have it paid back before VOO hits 199.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

billy269 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:31 pm
Rosencrantz1 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:16 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm

Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
At 1800, that'd be a 30%+ drop from here. You may be 'hoping' for awhile.

Disclosure: I've been buying small chunks (25 share lots) of VOO (and a few individual stocks) on the way down.
What about buying chunks on the way up? I had no problem DCAing on the way down and got about half of my savings into the market. On the way up it is way more difficult to pull the trigger for me. If I miss a sale on normal goods, I wait until the next sale or do not buy. I have to really force myself not to have this same mindset about investing. It is really hard.
I've bought on the way up too. Like you, though, I've found it a little easier to swallow when the market is down big. I like 'round numbers' - so, I tend to try to force myself to buy when the DOW is around 23000 or 22000 or 21000. I did a double buy of VTI with the DOW around 19500 - so far, I've gotten lucky there. Plus, of course, I don't have unlimited funds - so, I've been trying to hold my buying** to once or twice a week over the past month or so.

**this includes rebalancing one time too.

edit to add - I HAD a 3+ year of EF. Now, it's about 2+ years. We have cola pensions > expenses.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:36 pm
billy269 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:31 pm What about buying chunks on the way up? I had no problem DCAing on the way down and got about half of my savings into the market. On the way up it is way more difficult to pull the trigger for me. If I miss a sale on normal goods, I wait until the next sale or do not buy. I have to really force myself not to have this same mindset about investing. It is really hard.
I have a set amount I invest every month. On the way up my month's amount is the limit; on the way down if I run out I will borrow from my venture capital fund. I'm into myself for four months; hopefully I will have it paid back before VOO hits 199.
Sounds like you think VOO is on its way to 199?
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:36 pm
billy269 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:31 pm What about buying chunks on the way up? I had no problem DCAing on the way down and got about half of my savings into the market. On the way up it is way more difficult to pull the trigger for me. If I miss a sale on normal goods, I wait until the next sale or do not buy. I have to really force myself not to have this same mindset about investing. It is really hard.
I have a set amount I invest every month. On the way up my month's amount is the limit; on the way down if I run out I will borrow from my venture capital fund. I'm into myself for four months; hopefully I will have it paid back before VOO hits 199.
Sounds like you think VOO is on its way to 199?
I don't know where VOO is going but I do hope it does not go to 199. When it is that low I'm losing principal. Losing principal makes me sad, way sadder than losing house money. Not long ago I thought I had enough house money that I my principal was safe for a life time. I was wrong. :oops:
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

What a day :shock:
I heard a new one today, forget the "V" we're at the early stages of a "Checkmark" recovery ✔️
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Corsair wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:05 am
dwickenh wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:44 am
bo105954027 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:39 am Why is market going up today when bad news are all around: infections, tolls, unemployment...
Any good news currently pulling market up?
The market already knew this news. It is looking 3-6 months ahead and people are getting optimistic about
that time frame. Nobody knows for sure, but things are going to look better sometime.
The market didn't do this in January or February. It kept climbing and ignoring the virus. If it was forward looking it would have corrected sooner than it did.
Dude, it's forward-looking, but it's not always right..

You guys REALLY don't understand how the market works.

Bad news today that we all expected does not move the market.

If the market expects 2 million people to DIE, and the headlines blare "1.8 million dead in the streets!", the market will go UP.

And we will get two dozen people here posting "how can the market possibly go up on this terrible news!?"

That's how it works.

But when it learns it's wrong, it changes the other direction too...

"3 million dead", the market goes down.

In January and February, the market didn't expect the virus to be so bad... it was wrong.. so it crashed later...

Now it thinks the worst is past... It may be wrong... It may crash again... But it's logical that it is moving up even though people are STILL dying... Because it already knew about those people...
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
I hate to say this.... but the odds of seeing 1800 are about zero. Zilch. In the darkest days of this thing we barely managed 2300.

Now we are two weeks out from the peak, with piles of tests and PPE being manufactured, and it’s all down hill from there. If I could short TP, PPE and COVID-19 test futures .... I would. In about 3-4 months they will have them all stacked to the rafters at your local big box store.

And psssst: go look at daily active cases vs totals. Hmmm
Pinotage
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Pinotage »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 am I just have to say this. It won't bother me a bit seeing people rooting for the Pandemic get crushed if the market keeps going up. Honestly, some folks have been getting a bit ghoulish imho.
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
It looks like you took about a month off from posting.

Did that time away leave you feeling better, worse, or indifferent about your investments?
Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:23 pm
Corsair wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:02 am Has no one noticed prior weekend SARS-2 stats have also been low? Could it be some labs aren't open on weekends LOL.
I noticed that too. Today new case numbers in Italy and Spain were good and Germany was great, but they have all been dipping on the weekends/Sundays then go back up a little. Overall trendline is better, regardless, but it's a curiosity.
Yep, as expected the US new case and death numbers are higher. In certain areas much higher.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon »

From Eddy Elfenbein on Twitter:

"Today was the sixth-best percentage gain for the Dow in the last 87 years.

But only the third-best in the last month."

We live in volatile times.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
seychellois_lib
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by seychellois_lib »

mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:10 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm

Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
I hate to say this.... but the odds of seeing 1800 are about zero. Zilch. In the darkest days of this thing we barely managed 2300.

Now we are two weeks out from the peak, with piles of tests and PPE being manufactured, and it’s all down hill from there. If I could short TP, PPE and COVID-19 test futures .... I would. In about 3-4 months they will have them all stacked to the rafters at your local big box store.

And psssst: go look at daily active cases vs totals. Hmmm
I suspect any excess material will be stockpiled by the Feds. I hope it will. We can avoid much of this nonsense next time around if we have a playbook and a very very well stocked national stockpile of equipment and consumables. I think manufacturers will be rewarded as a result.

With regard to "daily active cases vs totals.". If you look at national data, positive trends began to emerge a week ago. I didn't really want to believe it when I did some simple math on the numbers but it turns out it was real. I really think our obsession with single family homes, suburbs and car culture has been a godsend. So is our culture of the kids leaving the nest and doing their own thing. It results in us being spread out and makes it easy to distance. If that is accurate it's an irony of historic proportions. I just hope we don't play whack a mole as each state goes through a crisis.

I am concerned about the end game though. Unless and until we get a massive amount of test capability online I don't see how we can safely restart unless we place restrictions on certain demographics. Massive testing allows us to ID the infected and get them off the streets and into quarantine.

Having said all of this, if the data continues to show progress we may see a market snapback that'll water your eyes. It's all academic to me. I haven't touched a darn thing other than buy a few shares of BRK/B. Well, two weeks ago I did move some $$ from comercial MM to Govt. MM. But that was the extent of my panic selling/buying.
potatopancake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by potatopancake »

There is no meaning to the news any longer. The market is going to continue going up and now is as good a time as ever to invest.

Look at today, the SP futures are up, hours after Boris Johnson is admitted to the ICU. A world leader may die and the stock market does not care. This was unexpected and in no way, was this, priced in.
bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:37 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:13 pm
... There is a tendency to be well prepared for the last bear market. :happy
OK. I'll bite. How will the next bear be different than the last one and the one before that? Predictions anyone?

And was late 2018 a bear market? Is there any way to tell before, say 2028?

The problem I am having is that with interest rates so low, I very much doubt that there is room for any capital appreciation in bonds. I just don't see how to prepare for the next bear.
stock up on toilet paper and hand soap!
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

potatopancake wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:00 pm There is no meaning to the news any longer. The market is going to continue going up and now is as good a time as ever to invest.

Look at today, the SP futures are up, hours after Boris Johnson is admitted to the ICU. A world leader may die and the stock market does not care. This was unexpected and in no way, was this, priced in.
Nobody knows nothing.

Or as I prefer, Nobody knows enough.

There are ten thousand variables, not one or even a dozen, and no one knows the rules of the game (heck, the rules can change every so often, so even looking at the past doesn't help).

Stop trying to predict what the market is going to do.

There is far more going on than just Boris Johnson... I'm sure that data point is a negative, but there are ten thousand other data points, and I guess at least 7000 of them were positive today. Maybe tomorrow there will be 6000 negative... Maybe 8000... No one knows.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by garlandwhizzer »

Great rally today! Unknown shape of the recovery whether V, W, or I hope not L. It will take a while for the fiscal cavalry from Congress to arrive. In the meantime social distancing while we wait for recovery. I think there is a real question about whether the suddenness and deep severity of this episode will change consumer confidence long term. Millions are now unemployed, thousands of small businesses closed or in the process of closing, more trouble in both areas ahead short term. I'm wondering if even after the acute problem is over, which clearly will happen, how quickly is not certain, there will be a persisting pessimism in consumer and business confidence as a result of all those jobs killed so quickly and all the small businesses suddenly out of business. Perhaps my view is shaped by where I live now in retirement, Hawaii whose economy is hugely dependent on tourism which is suddenly dead. Perhaps it's different in other places, but the shock of this episode may linger in our minds and behavior for longer than we think with more emphasis on saving rather than spending and safety rather than risk taking.

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Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:40 pm
DaftInvestor wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:33 pm With the Market up nearly 8% today - I wonder if I will be able to find Toilet Paper at the stores this week. Do we think there is a correlation? :)
The best explanation I have read on the TP shortage is that we are making as much as ever, but that there are two distinct markets in the US -- commercial/institutional and consumer. They have different manufacturers, different supply chains and there is very little leakage from one market to the other.

With so many people staying home institutional use is down, but consumer use is up. There is an oversupply in the institutional market and a shortage in the consumer market. The thing that will resolve this is an end to lockdowns and a return to work. Not much correlation to the market, but a lot to whether businesses/restaurants/hotels are operating near capacity or are stuck in the doldrums.
Yes, something along the lines of... residential toilet paper usage is up ~40%, but supply can only be increased ~20% in the near term, and no one is going to build a new plant for something that might be over in 2 months.
Gotta use less TP per flush, or buy those big commercial rolls.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

My Amazon TP order was shipped and arrives tomorrow. I'm taking this as a bullish sign. Once the hand sanitizer is back in stock, 3000 will follow soon I bet.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:10 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:46 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:08 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:21 pm

Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait.
Okay, I'll wait.
And please post all of your short positions while we both wait.
No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to start dcaing though.
I hate to say this.... but the odds of seeing 1800 are about zero. Zilch. In the darkest days of this thing we barely managed 2300.

Now we are two weeks out from the peak, with piles of tests and PPE being manufactured, and it’s all down hill from there. If I could short TP, PPE and COVID-19 test futures .... I would. In about 3-4 months they will have them all stacked to the rafters at your local big box store.

And psssst: go look at daily active cases vs totals. Hmmm
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:10 pm ...

I hate to say this.... but the odds of seeing 1800 are about zero. Zilch. In the darkest days of this thing we barely managed 2300.

Now we are two weeks out from the peak, with piles of tests and PPE being manufactured, and it’s all down hill from there. If I could short TP, PPE and COVID-19 test futures .... I would. In about 3-4 months they will have them all stacked to the rafters at your local big box store.

And psssst: go look at daily active cases vs totals. Hmmm
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year!
Because data... it's a thing. And sorry I lied. 1 week, latest projections just came rolling in (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). California has basically crushed this thing already... 50% margin on ICU beds and ventilators right now. COVID is waving the white flag, the terms of surrender are now being drawn up, and the 5 star general on the other side is putting on their nice uniform for the treaty signing ceremony on the carrier.

Like I've been saying for weeks now. This isn't going to be as bad as people think. The health care professionals were always quoting worse case scenarios to ensure "social distancing" behavior change, again as anyone would in that position. Even now when the data is painfully obvious they are low balling, again they don't want people to revert behavior until the war is won.

Wall Street is obviously looking at similar data, probably far better quality than what is public. Expect next steps to be something along the lines of at risk folks still needing to shelter in place, but everyone else going back to work in 4-6 weeks. It won't really be 100% "over" until vaccination happens, but as far as Wall Street is concerned....put a fork in it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goblue100 »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Futures are UP again. Roughly 3% as of now.

This is the bounce that won’t quit.

Hope all those folks who sold on the way down, hoping to re-buy at lower prices, have already gotten back in.

Market timing is really hard!
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

I fear for the poor folks that invested everything in SPXU.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Stef wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:03 am I fear for the poor folks that invested everything in SPXU.
No bogleheads would touch this. It’s for speculative day traders only.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grettman »

Stinky wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:29 am Futures are UP again. Roughly 3% as of now.

This is the bounce that won’t quit.

Hope all those folks who sold on the way down, hoping to re-buy at lower prices, have already gotten back in.

Market timing is really hard!
Doubt we will ever hear from them if they didn't.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grettman »

Scrolled from top to bottom of CNN's web page. Not one positive article related to virus.

(there is one about zeroing in on the source but I don't consider it positive in the sense it doesn't give any of the positive facts about how progress in getting out of this mess is being made)

These latest jumps in the market are a warning to investors who rely on the news for making investing decisions....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Mrmetalpole »

Stinky wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:29 am Futures are UP again. Roughly 3% as of now.

This is the bounce that won’t quit.

Hope all those folks who sold on the way down, hoping to re-buy at lower prices, have already gotten back in.

Market timing is really hard!
Jaime Dimon says we’re heading for deep recession and sadly we’re being advised of entering a period of “Great Death”. So.....Everyone ready for a calm election season?, 2021 earnings estimates all ramped up? booked your next Disney trip?, upgrading your iPhone soon?....What a suckers rally (huge short covering) hope everyone takes advantage If you need to
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

mrspock wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:09 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:10 pm ...

I hate to say this.... but the odds of seeing 1800 are about zero. Zilch. In the darkest days of this thing we barely managed 2300.

Now we are two weeks out from the peak, with piles of tests and PPE being manufactured, and it’s all down hill from there. If I could short TP, PPE and COVID-19 test futures .... I would. In about 3-4 months they will have them all stacked to the rafters at your local big box store.

And psssst: go look at daily active cases vs totals. Hmmm
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year!
Because data... it's a thing. And sorry I lied. 1 week, latest projections just came rolling in (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). California has basically crushed this thing already... 50% margin on ICU beds and ventilators right now. COVID is waving the white flag, the terms of surrender are now being drawn up, and the 5 star general on the other side is putting on their nice uniform for the treaty signing ceremony on the carrier.

Like I've been saying for weeks now. This isn't going to be as bad as people think. The health care professionals were always quoting worse case scenarios to ensure "social distancing" behavior change, again as anyone would in that position. Even now when the data is painfully obvious they are low balling, again they don't want people to revert behavior until the war is won.

Wall Street is obviously looking at similar data, probably far better quality than what is public. Expect next steps to be something along the lines of at risk folks still needing to shelter in place, but everyone else going back to work in 4-6 weeks. It won't really be 100% "over" until vaccination happens, but as far as Wall Street is concerned....put a fork in it.
We'll see. I think you're wrong. Tony Dwyer said we'll "test new lows again". I don't see people going back to work till at least June. And a lot of people won't have JOBS to go back to! REMEMBER? There are MILLIONS now UNEMPLOYED.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF2L_G49eIA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
I predict you won't be. NO restaurants will be open this WHOLE SUMMER! Just watch.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:28 am
goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
I predict you won't be. NO restaurants will be open this WHOLE SUMMER! Just watch.
Another 40% is kind of ridiculous. At any given moment, tnere is always someone screaming doom is near..there is.somone zay that at best and at worst of times
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:28 am
goblue100 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:58 am
How do you know that we're "two weeks" from a peak?? We'll just have to see what happens. We have a LONG WAY to go. I doubt people are going back to work at the end of April. When are people going back to restaurants and flying and bars? Not for the rest of this year! April 5th we had less cases in the US, BUT on April 6th we HAD MORE cases.

We'll just have to see what happens. Then there's the mass unemployment, business closures, etc, etc.

Wall Street Money Manager Minerd says we may drop another 40% on the S&P.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall- ... 2020-04-05
I think the people predicting that bars and restaurants will never open and we will be dealing with this "for years" are essentially wrong. I'll make a prediction, I live in Dallas. And I'll predict I'm sitting in my favorite restaurant on May 10th eating a meal.
I predict you won't be. NO restaurants will be open this WHOLE SUMMER! Just watch.
Another 40% is kind of ridiculous. At any given moment, tnere is always someone screaming doom is near..there is.somone zay that at best and at worst of times
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Wow, so many people who can predict the future in here!

I'll keep buying and holding. I plan on living another 60 years.
thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

The vaccine, if there is ever one is about a year off. Do you think people are going to risk their lives sitting together in restaurants and bars and concerts until then? Do you think people are going to pack into planes and buses and movie theatres?

Do you think it's just going to be life as usual back at the office anytime soon?

Things are going to get really bad! The WHOLE world is affected and NO ONE has recovered yet or for the foreseeable future.

This is a bounce that will fall hard and fast in a few more days. My prediction.
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