U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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hoops777
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

I wonder how the market will be reacting in a couple of weeks when it is clear how the powers to be did not react on time and the number of cases is overwhelming the system.Not trying to be pessimistic but the math does not look good.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:48 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:15 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am
I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:
What kind of "bares"?
A timber be'are. I kilt more be'ares today. They are dropping left and right. :greedy
kilt him a be 'are when he was only three
Point 1) I was tweaking whoever misspelled "bear" as in bear market. They spelled it "bare." Today, with many people not knowing their native language, it's always a crap shoot to know if they're misspelling on purpose or not.

Point 2) Having been a young lad during Davy's era, I distinctly remember seeing it spelled in comic books as he pronounced it: "b'ar."

:sharebeer
Daniel Boone (not Crockett) was famously reported to have spelt bear as bar but it’s apparently apocryphal. From Wikipedia:
Frontiersmen often carved messages on trees or wrote their names on cave walls, and Boone's name or initials have been found in many places. A tree in present Washington County, Tennessee reads "D. Boon Cilled a. Bar on tree in the year 1760". A similar carving, preserved in the museum of the Filson Historical Society in Louisville, Kentucky, reads "D. Boon Kilt a Bar, 1803." The inscriptions may also be among numerous forgeries of the famous trapper, part of a long tradition of phony Boone relics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Boone
I have no "Google Knowledge" on the subject. I'm going from memory 60 years ago, as "b'ar" was how the author spelled it in the comic books. :mrgreen:
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

Beach
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Beach » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
I guess so, this just seems like the evidence should be crystal clear and in real time. Life returning to normal, people being able to go out and spend money. Hourly workers back on the job. Toilet paper on the shelves....

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

Barron’s says the bear is over, we’re now at the start of a new bull market.

The Stimulus Bill Just Lifted the Dow Back Into a Bull Market.
The blue-chip index achieved a gain of 20% from its low in just three trading days. That ties the three day period ending October 8, 1931, for the quickest bear market low to bull market entry on record. This bear market lasted for 11 trading days, making it the shortest ever.

https://www.barrons.com/

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UpsetRaptor
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.

cherijoh
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by cherijoh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:04 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
I wonder how much of this is Boeing? It closed at $95.01 on March 16 and closed today at $180.55. That is a 90% increase in 10 days! :shock:

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Stef
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:04 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Not only the bottom but probably missed a 20-30% recovery.

I wonder what the news were back in December 2009 when the markets were up +65% from the bottom.

rudeboy
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Exactly. If it were so easy as to sit tight and wait for the good news, everyone would be a Warren Buffet.

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

LOL! What happened out there today?!

Chuck107
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Re: Bull Trap? Or are we recovering already

Post by Chuck107 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:40 pm
Well that was anti-climactic...



It could be QE doing its magic...

Or a simple bull trap...

I just dont understand. Im out of job. All my friends as well. Coronavirus just got started. I guess this is the reason to stay the course
Could be, might be, Nobody knows nothing, but your last guess is a good one. :beer

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FelixTheCat
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by FelixTheCat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:06 pm

I wish it would stop. I plan to buy more VTSAX in the beginning of April. :D
Felix is a wonderful, wonderful cat.

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:06 pm

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm
LOL! What happened out there today?!
Seems like the crazy selling has stopped! Wait, I will probably eat those words tomorrow.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

mac808
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by mac808 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]."

It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time.

There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housing, and financial asset prices generally. That will be where the wind is sown for future generations. But the Fed can, and may, absolutely guarantee that the S&P 500 remains above a certain level come high or hell water, or that highly-leveraged airlines don't go bankrupt, or that financial institutions that make bad bets remain solvent. As a result there's little point in trying to analyze fundamentals during a macro crisis like this.

I'm readjusting my AA and trading strategies based on this fairly obvious realization that I'm sure many people have had before me.

alfaspider
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:11 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Bottoms tend to happen right when the bad news stops hitting, but before the good. Right now, it's not clear how much bad news is yet to come. Will NYC run out hospital beds or will things level off before? Will warming weather slow the spread or will it go full steam ahead? Is NYC our Wuhan, or are other cities next? We just don't know the answers.

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LadyGeek
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm

I merged wkimdds's thread into a similar discussion.
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minimalistmarc
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm

Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market declared?
Last edited by minimalistmarc on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

atdharris
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:14 pm

I can't imagine this is the end of the sell-off, but what do I know. the worst is yet to come and there is no telling when life returns to normal.

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watchnerd
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market top declared?
That's what I thought....
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hoops777
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm

The virus is going to cause all sorts of unheard numbers, including unemployment. To think everything with the market will now be unaffected is crazy to me.
I do not think people really are understanding how bad this could get. There are also consequences to printing money.

I hope I am wrong but after hearing the new talk about widely going back to normal at Easter, I am truly in a state of disbelief those words were spoken.

We will get through it in time, but it will NOT be happening anytime soon. Just look at the reality and forget the wishful thinking.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:20 pm

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm
LOL! What happened out there today?!
I'm no longer losing principal and have paper gains. :mrgreen:

hoops777
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:21 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
In other news: USA is now #1 in COVID-19 cases.
US also number one with many state leaders not taking it seriously enough along with a name I will not mention. That combination does not bode well as the numbers keep rising. I am truly dumbfounded by some of the interviews I have seen from different officials.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BW1985 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:21 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:20 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm
LOL! What happened out there today?!
I'm no longer losing principal and have paper gains. :mrgreen:
When did you start investing?
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?

atdharris
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market top declared?
That's what I thought. The media seems to think a 20% rally after a 35% drop means a new bull market. Not what I thought..

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bligh
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by bligh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
In other news: USA is now #1 in COVID-19 cases.
I was hoping the US would lead the world in this time of crisis.... not like this though. :oops:

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windaar
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by windaar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

anon3838 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:58 pm
I will believe it when I can buy toilet paper without having to stand in a line of 300+ people waiting for a store to open.
Today at Publix I saw full shelves of TP for the first time in weeks. Limit one 4-pack per person, but available at last.
Nobody knows nothing.

Mr.BB
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm

Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

Mickstick
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mickstick » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm

Image

We are returning to "normal" :twisted:
Last edited by Mickstick on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design" - F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

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Harry Livermore
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Harry Livermore » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm

Well, if that's the end of it, then shucks.
I'm still not able to go to work and earn money, so that's not great. But I remain happy with our AA and changed nothing (I did shuffle some bond funds in my pension plan)
Keep in mind the rally that happened right after the 1929 crash. I was looking for a chart to post, but could not seem to find one that did not have a copyright on it. Anyway, we might rally here for a bit and then see more spectacular losses.
Cheers

ETA: I see Mickstick chimed in while I was writing. His chart is another variation of the theme.
ETA: Here's an article from the GFC, looking back at the rallies withing the Great Depression:
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-m ... depression
Last edited by Harry Livermore on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:33 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:57 pm
rascott wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:18 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:54 pm
Silk McCue wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:50 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm
These past few days have really demonstrated that nobody knows nothing. 5% increase on the same day the worst jobs report of all time comes out. Did anyone see that coming?

Is this a dead cat bounce or have we hit the bottom?

I'm glad I don't have to try to predict it. Buy-and-hold makes life simpler.
The bad jobs report was not a surprise to anyone. It was already baked into the mental calculus.

Cheers
The anticipation of a bad report may have been baked in, but no one new the actual numbers until they were released. The numbers were higher than many predicted.

The number is totally irrelevant. Jobs reports are only relevant when they are used as market guidance for how the economy is doing. Everyone knows the economy is basically shut down and the numbers are going to be horrific for a few months. The market cares more about what the numbers will look like in August and beyond..... not April.

That every unemployed person is going to be paid $4k/mo for the next 4 months gives enough breathing room to bridge. The data on the virus is what matters.... not an unemployment report.
Well, the data on the virus is disasterous, so.... why is the market up 5%?

Hindsight is 20/20 -- you're coming up with an explanation as to why the jobs report didnt impact the market after-the-fact. Did you predict yesterday that the market would be soaring today?

Nobody can predict what the market will do what will do on a daily basis.

I'm just saying that this jobs report was totally irrelevant to today's market action. The worst jobs reports in recessions often actually come after the market has bottomed.

I don't think the market has bottomed.... and I fully expect coming weeks jobs reports to be even worse. Those numbers will be equally irrelevant. Only thing that matters in the next month or two is the new data that will come out regarding the virus. Is the virus data worse than was projected last week? Not that I've seen.

vencat
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vencat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:37 pm

I still need a couple of 8 digit absolute gains to catch up with the old bull before I get tossed in the air by the new one!!

MishkaWorries
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by MishkaWorries » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:37 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm
Dead bull bounce?
Nice.
We plan. G-d laughs.

vencat
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vencat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm

Mickstick wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm
Image

We are returning to "normal" :twisted:
Is that a bulltrap or bull@rap?!

jajlrajrf
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by jajlrajrf » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm

I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.

minimalistmarc
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
Nope, GDP numbers will be terrible but predictable and most likely priced in.

Stop thinking short term. You can’t predict the market, nobody can

wkimdds
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:48 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.

THX THAT HELPS ALOT :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Thesaints
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Thesaints » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:50 pm

huskerfan1414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm
This is insane.

Either the virus stuff is overblown and the market somehow knows it, and this is going to be a V.

or the market is walking up a mountain blind and is going to step off the ledge and go tumbling.

At this point I don't think there's a "medium" or "in between". I don't see how anyone can forecast anything other than great news or terrible news at this point.

But I know nothing! This has to be unprecedented.
Nobody can tell the real size of the coronavirus financial impact. Therefore market prices are oscillating rather randomly. Final result can be near the extremes, or anything in between.

dh
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by dh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.
You are on record (a guarantee of movement up or down). I am going to hold you to that :sharebeer

During this time when the magnitude of short-term movements are greater (both up and down) than at any time since the early 1930s, I think it is interesting that people love labeling market movements with clever phrases ... my new favorite is every bear puts out a little honey. This could be a bear market rally, or perhaps a bull run to all time highs. Mr. Market does what it does, and I have an asset allocation ready for whatever comes. At times like this, I thank the Bogleheads who have taught me to have a plan and ignore the noise. However, I am going to watch :shock: what happens next so I can measure jajlrajrf's bold guarantee.

Be well my friends!

wkimdds
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:31 pm

Just to add about new bull market, my opinion is this is a bull trap (and yes im staying the course regardless)

We have 3 million people on EI, over 90k cases (and soon to be worse. Most likely #2 in the world as I know chinese are lying about their numbers) and severe economic impact. I am lucky to have emergency fund but many people live paycheck to paycheck. Think what can happen to these people if this prolongs. QE will fail eventually.

whereskyle
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by whereskyle » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:31 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
Oh that definition of a bull market is bulls*** in my opinion. For me the bear lasts until we reach the prior peak. Anything less and we're getting ahead of ourselves. Hilarious how CNBC is running "Biggest gain since 1931/33!" Could there be a more foreboding headline?
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

fusspot
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fusspot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:33 pm

Here is the truth.wait for it.....................................................Who the hell knows.

fusspot
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fusspot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:34 pm

Forgot to add Throw a dart!

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm
Barron’s says the bear is over, we’re now at the start of a new bull market.

The Stimulus Bill Just Lifted the Dow Back Into a Bull Market.
The blue-chip index achieved a gain of 20% from its low in just three trading days. That ties the three day period ending October 8, 1931, for the quickest bear market low to bull market entry on record. This bear market lasted for 11 trading days, making it the shortest ever.

https://www.barrons.com/
:shock:

Nowizard
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Nowizard » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm

Well, at least these posts are generally more enjoyable than many over the past week, even if celebration is premature, at least in my opinion.

Tim

rudeboy
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm

This thing shot up 20% before the market timers could find the "ON" switch to their Rube Goldberg machines.

This may well be a false rally, but ask yourself: if you didn't predict this, what makes you think your future predictions will fare any better?

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watchnerd
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:46 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm
This thing shot up 20% before the market timers could find the "ON" switch to their Rube Goldberg machines.
The bear put on a bull costume to lure the market timers back so he can nomnomnom.
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:50 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market declared?
No.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

vipertom1970
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:51 pm

up 142K today....beer on me even for the end of the world guys :sharebeer

grettman
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by grettman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:00 pm

My prediction: tomorrow’s close will be different than today’s close. Prove me wrong with science.

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Taylor Larimore
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Predicting stock market returns

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:01 pm

Nicolas:

I hope Barron's is right but I remember when the front page of Barron's screamed "BUY GM NOW!" -- A few months later GM went bankrupt.

I doubt if anyone can predict (except by luck) what stocks will do in the future. I learned the hard way that I can't.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Mr.BB
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Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
Nope, GDP numbers will be terrible but predictable and most likely priced in.

Stop thinking short term. You can’t predict the market, nobody can
I'm not thinking short-term That's just part of the road trip. I don't think anybody has any idea where those GDP numbers are going to fall except very low, and since I don't think anybody's seen anything quite like this I don't think they know how to price it.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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