U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:07 pm

papito23 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:42 am
For the last month, I've laughed every time I see this post bumped to the top of the forum.

The absurdity of it all. Dead cats bouncing everywhere.
And the free fall thread was wrong for 10 years. What do you call that? :)

Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
I do know that, because I am one of those market timers.

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:10 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
I do know that, because I am one of those market timers.
Got pictures to prove it? And even if you did happen to guess right, a sample size of one doesn't refute the point.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:13 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
I do know that, because I am one of those market timers.
Sit on the sidelines and wring your hands much?
Global Market Cap Equity/1 Year Cash/Bonds || 25x Expenses

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:16 pm

Look at today's biggest gainers; they're all short squeeze stocks. MGM, Michaels, Dave & Busters, Norwegian, American Airlines, etc.

Who also buys on large up days in a 2 week bear market?
Stocks only go up? Don't fight the Fed. | All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.

lessismore22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lessismore22 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
+1.

I don't know anybody jumping in and out of the market on a daily basis. I know plenty of people who pulled some, or all, of their equities to the sideline and are more than happy to miss those up days followed by downs. Will they guess the bottom right? Who knows, but that wasn't your point.

Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:10 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
I do know that, because I am one of those market timers.
Got pictures to prove it? And even if you did happen to guess right, a sample size of one doesn't refute the point.
You posted your argument based on a sample size of 2? right?
And my post was to say that one of your 2 points was a bad data point, because it was an obvious run up based on misinformation from an end of market press conference, that was immediately reversed the next business day.

P.S. Yes, I could make screenshots, but as you say, if I posted them, you would ignore them.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CoastalWinds » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:28 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:48 am
Stef wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:46 am
Why are we seeing +9%?
Remember Friday, March 13th? The market was trading on misplaced hope then. I suspect that today is more of the same.
I agree. This has me re-thinking just how “smart” the market is.

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:10 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm


Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
I do know that, because I am one of those market timers.
Got pictures to prove it? And even if you did happen to guess right, a sample size of one doesn't refute the point.
You posted your argument based on a sample size of 2? right?
And my post was to say that one of your 2 points was a bad data point, because it was an obvious run up based on misinformation from an end of market press conference, that was immediately reversed the next business day.

P.S. Yes, I could make screenshots, but as you say, if I posted them, you would ignore them.
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:32 pm

lessismore22 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
+1.

I don't know anybody jumping in and out of the market on a daily basis. I know plenty of people who pulled some, or all, of their equities to the sideline and are more than happy to miss those up days followed by downs. Will they guess the bottom right? Who knows, but that wasn't your point.
Doesn't mean they don't exist.

Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:50 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.
I'd love to hear you full investing strategy. Did it include selling on the 12th during a 10% skid?

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LiterallyIronic » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:55 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Anyone know how frequently a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund rebalances? Is it going to rebalance after today in order to capture some of today's gains?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.
No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:10 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.
No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
One would have to be a very bad market timer indeed to miss out on all the good days and experience all the bad days. It could happen, but I've not seen reliable data regarding the frequency of something like that.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:18 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.
No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
One would have to be a very bad market timer indeed to miss out on all the good days and experience all the bad days. It could happen, but I've not seen reliable data regarding the frequency of something like that.
It is the reason I dislike the missing out on the good days example people use, so many of the best days ever happened during bad declines. It just isn't realistic except for the ultimate panicky investor. The facts support the wisdom of Buy and Hold investing to date, no need to concoct unrealistic scenarios.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:24 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:20 pm


Well the market closed at 2,480 on March 12 and is currently 2,397 so what did they miss besides a 83 point drop? On March 10 the market closed at 2,882. I am not sure how much missing up days matter if those days are surrounded by down days.
You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.
No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
One would have to be a very bad market timer indeed to miss out on all the good days and experience all the bad days. It could happen, but I've not seen reliable data regarding the frequency of something like that.
It is the reason I dislike the missing out on the good days example people use, so many of the best days ever happened during bad declines. It just isn't realistic except for the ultimate panicky investor.
I'm not so sure. The market goes down because people selling, right? And it goes up because people are buying, right? In bear markets, when these types of swings happen, people are panicky, and they do buy and sell at the exact wrong times.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:29 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:24 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:23 pm


You're assuming these market timers are making optimal choices aside from missing two really good days. Statistics show it doesn't work that way.
No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
One would have to be a very bad market timer indeed to miss out on all the good days and experience all the bad days. It could happen, but I've not seen reliable data regarding the frequency of something like that.
It is the reason I dislike the missing out on the good days example people use, so many of the best days ever happened during bad declines. It just isn't realistic except for the ultimate panicky investor.
I'm not so sure. The market goes down because people selling, right? And it goes up because people are buying, right? In bear markets, when these types of swings happen, people are panicky, and they do buy and sell at the exact wrong times.
Feel free to research it for yourself, I could be wrong. We have had some pretty good days in the past month and yet somehow we are down 31%.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:32 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:24 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 pm


No, I am assuming no one just jumps out for the good days. Besides I was just exactly illustrating your example, a Market Timer that was out on March 13 and still out today. Isn't that how someone would miss both of these good days?
One would have to be a very bad market timer indeed to miss out on all the good days and experience all the bad days. It could happen, but I've not seen reliable data regarding the frequency of something like that.
It is the reason I dislike the missing out on the good days example people use, so many of the best days ever happened during bad declines. It just isn't realistic except for the ultimate panicky investor.
I'm not so sure. The market goes down because people selling, right? And it goes up because people are buying, right? In bear markets, when these types of swings happen, people are panicky, and they do buy and sell at the exact wrong times.
Feel free to research it for yourself. We have had some pretty good days in the past month and yet somehow we are down 31%.
:oops: I can't tell if you're being intentionally obtuse.

All I'm saying is that if someone made one finicky choice at the wrong time, they could be down 40% instead of 30% right now. I'm not sure how you are not getting my point.

Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:33 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:50 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.
I'd love to hear you full investing strategy. Did it include selling on the 12th during a 10% skid?
Sure, happy to share.

I can't do a lot of the things I would like to do, because a requirement of my employer is that I hold any position I open for 30 days.

Sold from 90/10 > 50/50 over the course of February 21st-March 4th at an average price of 7% below the peak. Basically, I had to wait until the most recent lot of each of my holdings was at least 30 days old to sell.

Buying back in at various price levels, mostly sticking to a fixed schedule based on pricing, but allowing myself to cherry pick a few individual stocks.

Bought to 65/25 on 3/12 at VOO 230, IWM 111.70
Bought to 70/30 on 3/16 SPY 242
Bought back to 70/30 on 3/18 with LEG 22.86
Bought back to 70/30 on 3/20 with T 29
Bought to 75/25 on 3/23 KSS 13.99 , PRU 39.87, VIAC 11, TROW 83.72, MMM 117.6
Bought to 76/24 on 3/24 VZ 49.30
Will buy to 85/15 Split between VEA and SCHB in the 2226-2054 range on the S&P 500.
Will buy to 100/0 with VT in the 2054-1908 range on the S&P 500.
If we fall below 1908, I will use more aggressive tools like a HELOC and leverage at varying degrees all the way down to 1113.
If we get to July 1st, and I haven't bought back to 90/10, I will buy back to 90/10 at the market price.

I will buy the following stocks instead of the index with 1% of my account at the following prices.
KMB 86, KO 29, CAT 78, DUK 59, EMR 36, DIS 66, TMUS 67, BRK-B 157, PGR 63
If we never get there, that's okay. Prices subject to change due to changes in fundamentals.

JLJL
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JLJL » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:36 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.
The argument that the "timers" missed just the good days is absurd. Never understood that argument. "IF you missed the top 10 days in history you'd have 0% gains" or whatever. No kidding.

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:39 pm

JLJL wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:36 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.
The argument that the "timers" missed just the good days is absurd. Never understood that argument. "IF you missed the top 10 days in history you'd have 0% gains" or whatever. No kidding.
One particular timer missing all the good days is absurd. But timers missing some good days is one of the reasons good days happen.

APX32
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by APX32 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:55 pm

I’m incredibly thankful for this opportunity today to sell most of my stocks. Looks like when it’s all said and done, I’ll be up almost $25k today, erasing 1/3 of my losses since the 2/20 peak. After all this madness, to be only down about $50k is a miracle. That’s about a third of my annual salary and still less than a year’s worth of savings, where I aim for $70-75k each year.

I figured a day like this was coming, and after today I’ll be approximately 7/5/88, where the 7% is an S&P pool account in the 401k, 5% is GLD, and 88% is cash in FDLXX, spread across 401k, Roth, and taxable.

Years of gains and contributions have been preserved and now I don’t care what happens with the markets. I front loaded the 401k this year which is now fully funded after the 3/15 paycheck. Starting April, I’m moving to AT 401k contributions with the automatic Roth in-plan conversion, which is basically another emergency account I’ll look to boost for the rest it 2020.

Staying the course and will be sleeping very well. Good luck to all and stay healthy! :sharebeer
Last edited by APX32 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
8% SPY | 5% GLD | 87% Cash

Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Patzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:56 pm

Selling 5% of my portfolio at market close.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:58 pm

Glad to hear of those folks selling chunks of their portfolio on this rally. Means there will be more bargain-level prices for me soon enough.

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:58 pm
Glad to hear of those folks selling chunks of their portfolio on this rally. Means there will be more bargain-level prices for me soon enough.
It's been truly amazing to see how prevalent emotional based market timing is on BHs.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:39 pm
JLJL wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:36 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:31 pm
No, you are the sample size of one, not the market.

It doesn''t matter if March 13 was a bad data point. The market went up nearly 10%. I would be willing to bet there were scores of investors who ducked out on the 12th and sold with 10% losses, then bought back in on the 13th, only to see a 12% loss their next training day.

When did I give any indication I would ignore them? Now, for context, what are you saying you accomplished, exactly -- you were out of the market on the 12th, in it on the 13th, then out of it again on the 16th?
The rally on the 13th, was mostly isolated to the last 45 minutes of the day, so for someone to have benefited from the 13th, they would have had to buy at 3:15PM and sold at 3:59PM on the 13th. If they held til market open on the 16th, they were net down.
It really is not a good data point to use to say market timers missed out on the 13th.

I am saying I missed both the 13th and the 16th, and that together they were net down, so I am happy I missed them.
The argument that the "timers" missed just the good days is absurd. Never understood that argument. "IF you missed the top 10 days in history you'd have 0% gains" or whatever. No kidding.
One particular timer missing all the good days is absurd. But timers missing some good days is one of the reasons good days happen.
Hope you had a very profitable day.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm

Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:03 pm
Market was down less than 3% today. Considering that it was a Monday, and that the Senate is still deadlocked on a relief bill, it seems like a “soaring” day to me.

Just think - if the market goes up on Tuesday and Wednesday, that will be two days in a row!

Hope springs eternal.
Well, Tuesday was an up day.

Hoping for the same on Wednesday. Pulling for two in a row!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:09 pm

Stinky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm
Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:03 pm
Market was down less than 3% today. Considering that it was a Monday, and that the Senate is still deadlocked on a relief bill, it seems like a “soaring” day to me.

Just think - if the market goes up on Tuesday and Wednesday, that will be two days in a row!

Hope springs eternal.
Well, Tuesday was an up day.

Hoping for the same on Wednesday. Pulling for two in a row!
Futures up!

keelerjr12
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by keelerjr12 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?

peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:36 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:09 pm
Futures up!
Not anymore!

The dead cat bounced today....but tomorrow?

rudeboy
Posts: 231
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm

keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Think you are confusing market timing with emotional trading. At least to me, Market Timing is not a day to day thing but a move made based on the belief in a trend. It also should not be emotional and getting back in should be systematic.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

keelerjr12
Posts: 128
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by keelerjr12 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:09 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Or your market timer was in on the up day and sitting at $105. But you’re also making the assumption that the person is buying and selling everyday. All you need to do is wait for the price to go even lower, which it had during that timeframe..

keelerjr12
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by keelerjr12 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:11 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm


Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Think you are confusing market timing with emotional trading. At least to me, Market Timing is not a day to day thing but a move made based on the belief in a trend. It also should not be emotional and getting back in should be systematic.
Exactly. To me, it sounded like this was a poor attempt and trying to prove market timers wrong.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:13 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 pm
The market is currently up 8%. Two days -- today and March 13th -- have given us 18% gains. Imagine all of the market timers out there who have missed just one of these days, and how much that will hurt their recovery from this crash in the long-term.

Buy-and-hold is the only game in town.
I've been buying and holding since 1990.

No regrets! :beer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

rudeboy
Posts: 231
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:31 pm

keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:09 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm


Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Or your market timer was in on the up day and sitting at $105. But you’re also making the assumption that the person is buying and selling everyday. All you need to do is wait for the price to go even lower, which it had during that timeframe..
No, I'm making the assumption that someone made one poor guess.

rudeboy
Posts: 231
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:34 pm

keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:09 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm


Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Or your market timer was in on the up day and sitting at $105. But you’re also making the assumption that the person is buying and selling everyday. All you need to do is wait for the price to go even lower, which it had during that timeframe..

There have been years when people have been sitting there waiting for the price to go lower from where they sold out. With how easy you make market timing sound, you must be a gazillionaire!

rudeboy
Posts: 231
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rudeboy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:36 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm
keelerjr12 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm
rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:04 pm


Pretty sure those market timers that "missed" March 13th, were pretty happy to miss it, because they also missed the next business day, March 16th.
You don't know that.
rudeboy,

You must be joking right? If you start with 100 dollars and the market goes up 5%, you’re left with $105. If it then falls 5%, youre left with $99.75. And, therefore, are down..

So what in the heck are you talking about?

Additionally, if you have 2 days in a row where the market makes X% you can’t just add them together and call it 2X%. For example, if you have 10% returns on 2 days in a row, your actual return is 21% and not 20%.

So, as I said... what in the heck are you talking about?
I'm talking about people who jump in and out of the market. It's not hard to understand, but since you insist...

Our market timer was not in the market when it went up 5% (due to a previous market timing effort), but then got in in time for the market to go down 5%. So our timer is at 95% whereas the buy and holder is at 99.75%. Stuff like this happens all the time.

In the real world, these swings have been 10% either way.
Think you are confusing market timing with emotional trading. At least to me, Market Timing is not a day to day thing but a move made based on the belief in a trend. It also should not be emotional and getting back in should be systematic.
No, I'm not confusing market timing with emotional trading, though I think they often overlap.

It sounds like you're making up definitions for things as it suits you.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:25 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:36 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 pm
Think you are confusing market timing with emotional trading. At least to me, Market Timing is not a day to day thing but a move made based on the belief in a trend. It also should not be emotional and getting back in should be systematic.
No, I'm not confusing market timing with emotional trading, though I think they often overlap.

It sounds like you're making up definitions for things as it suits you.
Maybe this will help.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=302849&p=5065362#p5065785
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:32 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:18 pm
ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:06 pm
News seems to be building again.
??

RM
There were surges in cases reported outside China, announced Italian school closings, possible India pharmaceutical supply chain disruption, China expecting it take to weeks to get back to 90% and I think several states reported their first cases or community infections. But maybe some see that as status quo.
There will be thousands of decisions market participants will make tomorrow like every other day. What if all of this is true, but along with that a research for cancer cure announces successful testing results, how will market price that information along with the current bad news, do you want to try and predict results of thousands of outcomes daily.
I assume any advance in cancer treatment will effect a single stock, the corona virus has the potential to disrupt industries. But just because it has the potential to does not mean it will.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=302849&p=5065362#p5065847
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:50 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:48 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:40 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:28 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:13 pm

How do you know this? and do you believe no one else knows this? if everyone knows this what makes you think it isn't already priced in?
Just because people have the same information doesn't mean they all draw the same conclusion or react to it in the same way. I doubt it is perfectly priced in because of the array and degree of potential outcomes still in play at this point. But as things evolve the market will gather a better understanding and continue to refine the pricing. At some point it will be a rear view mirror event no longer considered in pricing.
So you think at this point your view is better than the collective view of the market participants. In other words you are observing a mispricing, is that a correct way to interpret that?

I have no issues if you want to claim that, although I do not believe it is possible for anyone to detect and much less profit from such an effort. But if you want to claim that way, I'm not going to contest it.
At this point I am making a guess like everyone else. We can discuss whether it is an educated or informed guess or just a guess but it definitely comes with no guarantee. Even if I am correct in my assumptions I may end up on the wrong side of the outcome. But I feel my situation allowed me the freedom to act and I am willing to live with the consequences of being wrong.
Thanks for your candid response. Good luck!
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to sore!

Post by JoMoney » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:44 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:43 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:21 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:19 pm
Stocks continue to sore!

S&P back over 2400... bumping this thread to see if it will let off some of the steam. I'd like to get some contributions in early next year as low as possible ;)
You beat me to it! The selfish part of me wishes would rather not see the market really recover for a year or two.
I'm guessing this isn't the way you were wishing it wouldn't really recover :shock:
Indeed.
Timely that it (once again) crossed back over the 2400 market today.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:55 am

Get ready to make some moolah tomorrow morning everyone! Futures are up 2% for the DOW, 1% for the S&P.

peskypesky
Posts: 190
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:21 am

mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:55 am
Get ready to make some moolah tomorrow morning everyone! Futures are up 2% for the DOW, 1% for the S&P.
You were saying?

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ReformedSpender
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Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:16 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:13 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:10 am
Over $200bn in month-end pension fund rebalancing is due to occur. Keep that in mind if we start to "rally".
Umm, this is completely irrelevant to anything.
I'm all ears... :confused
and the rebuttal is...?
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:54 am

mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:55 am
Get ready to make some moolah tomorrow morning everyone! Futures are up 2% for the DOW, 1% for the S&P.
I really don't get the rally this past couple of days, but I'm happy to have partially rebalanced on Monday. With the market up 10% since then it's tempting to undo that rebalance now and just take the gains! At least until I calculate the actual magnitude of gains, and then I settle back in my saddle and cluck at my trusty buy-and-hold (& rebalance) horse to stay the course.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:07 am

Choo choo! Ain't no brakes on the stocks soaring train.

Asian markets closed massively in green, and European are mostly in green but they shot through the roof yesterday.

Half way through the US trading session, and looking positive so far. Obviously anything can change any minute.

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am

yes, quite a bear market rally. the short algos are covering very quick. Will probably peter out around 2500-2700.

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:12 am

peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:21 am
mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:55 am
Get ready to make some moolah tomorrow morning everyone! Futures are up 2% for the DOW, 1% for the S&P.
You were saying?
Quite right... 3% and 2%. I was too LOW! Cha-Ching! Cha-Ching! Up up we go!
Last edited by mrspock on Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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