U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by columbia »

There’s a lot of short positions in the 2020 BH contest....
parval
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by parval »

wrongfunds wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:44 pm
Stef wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:23 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:15 pm Holy TSLA.
I wanted to buy at 180, but kept telling myself: don't buy individual stocks!
When you buy individual stock, you have to have predetermined exit point. With the whole market, you don't have an exit point until you need to the money to support you in retirement.

If you had bought Apple at $1 (adjusted for split) would you have kept it until it reached $1000 or would have got out when you doubled your money? Be honest with yourself. If you said but that was only fun money, then it really does not make much difference to your total portfolio even if you were to let it ride all the way.

Same thing with the bitcoins, Teslas, and Apples.
Wait why can't you hold these until retirement?
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Mr. Softee isn't doing so bad either.

Curly family portfolio is once more in record high territory. Although it is hard to count after hours figures as "real".
wrongfunds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wrongfunds »

Well, I had lots of high fliers like Nortel, JDS, Solectron and Lucent in my retirement account circa 2000.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

wrongfunds wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:00 pm Well, I had lots of high fliers like Nortel, JDS, Solectron and Lucent in my retirement account circa 2000.
My Pop did too. And then some insurance company called AIG in 2007.... ya that didn’t end well. 2nd generation investor, I learned and now exclusively index. So far so good, instead of stock picking, I have tons of time to comment on Internet forums :D .

Futures up marginally, hopefully Mr. Market is in a good mood tomorrow!
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

mrspock wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:40 pm
Futures up marginally, hopefully Mr. Market is in a good mood tomorrow!
LOL not anymore... down 0.11% now
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:06 pm AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
:oops:
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:31 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:06 pm AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
:oops:
DW has her fun money in AMZN. Waiting for the opening bell with bated breath.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:39 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:31 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:06 pm AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
:oops:
DW has her fun money in AMZN. Waiting for the opening bell with bated breath.
Good for her. It was quite a quarter.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:39 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:31 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:06 pm AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
:oops:
DW has her fun money in AMZN. Waiting for the opening bell with bated breath.
Congratulations!

You, me, and one or two other people on the planet knows it's "bated" in this context -- not "baited." :beer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

guyinlaw wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:00 am
mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:36 am Firing up this thread again. Futures are up 200 pts!
Cramer doesn't think it's time to buy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs ... ot_mostpop
Looks like Cramer may have been right.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:41 am
guyinlaw wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:00 am
mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:36 am Firing up this thread again. Futures are up 200 pts!
Cramer doesn't think it's time to buy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs ... ot_mostpop
Looks like Cramer may have been right.
Don’t you want to buy low? I’d think today would be perfect day to buy.
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:41 am
guyinlaw wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:00 am
mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:36 am Firing up this thread again. Futures are up 200 pts!
Cramer doesn't think it's time to buy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs ... ot_mostpop
Looks like Cramer may have been right.
Don’t you want to buy low? I’d think today would be perfect day to buy.
Falling knife? Could be lower tomorrow?
TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TropikThunder »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:08 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:41 am
guyinlaw wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:00 am
mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:36 am Firing up this thread again. Futures are up 200 pts!
Cramer doesn't think it's time to buy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs ... ot_mostpop
Looks like Cramer may have been right.
Don’t you want to buy low? I’d think today would be perfect day to buy.
He said it on Monday, so perhaps he found the acorn this time.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce »

We haven't heard from Stinky in a while. I hope he's okay and hasn't jumped out of a ten-story window or something. :(
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bck63
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bck63 »

Bluce wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:30 am
CurlyDave wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:39 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:31 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:06 pm AMZN skyrocketing after hours... market should be up big tomorrow.
:oops:
DW has her fun money in AMZN. Waiting for the opening bell with bated breath.
Congratulations!

You, me, and one or two other people on the planet knows it's "bated" in this context -- not "baited." :beer
Or "fetid." :thumbsdown
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

You mean vs feted?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Bluce wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:23 am We haven't heard from Stinky in a while. I hope he's okay and hasn't jumped out of a ten-story window or something. :(
I’m licking my wounds after a tough week.

And I’ve about hit a rebalance point where I should sell US equity and buy international equity, because my international has been a LOSER year to date. Is it time to reassess my IPS? :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

For new investors, IPS: Investment policy statement

"Year to date" is not very long in the big scheme of things. Perhaps reassess in 6 months? In the mean time, follow your IPS. (Further discussion can be done in the Personal Investments forum.)
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:27 am
...And I’ve about hit a rebalance point where I should sell US equity and buy international equity, because my international has been a LOSER year to date. Is it time to reassess my IPS? :oops:
Investing is one of the very few endeavors where keeping on doing the same thing and expecting different results is not considered a form of insanity.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:27 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:27 am
...And I’ve about hit a rebalance point where I should sell US equity and buy international equity, because my international has been a LOSER year to date. Is it time to reassess my IPS? :oops:
Investing is one of the very few endeavors where keeping on doing the same thing and expecting different results is not considered a form of insanity.
After reflection, I’m not changing my IPS. What was good enough (and hopefully well conceived) should be good enough today and tomorrow.

But, as noticed by many folks in other threads, international has underperformed domestic equities for a while now, and the underperformance continues. Someday, let’s hope that there is a reversal.
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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

It would appear that equities have reached a permanently high plateau. :happy
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

If US keeps outperforming for decades, I will srsly question the EMH.

Or is there a premium (like SCV in the past) when your flag has stars?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

whodidntante wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:30 am It would appear that equities have reached a permanently high plateau. :happy
I think that I’ve heard that somewhere before ......
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Stef wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:31 am If US keeps outperforming for decades, I will srsly question the EMH.

Or is there a premium (like SCV in the past) when your flag has stars?
The EMH deserves a lot of serious questioning.
How many decades do you think are needed?
Image

FWIW, your theory can already be questioned as South Africa's flag doesn't have any stars
Image
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:52 am
The EMH deserves a lot of serious questioning.
How many decades do you think are needed?
Image
While I am not the biggest EMH guy around, I think attributing differences in market performance between countries to flaws in EMH is ignoring the role of society (customs), political climate, and natural resources in market performance for various countries.

I am still thankful that I have been a US investor for my entire life.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:24 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:52 am
The EMH deserves a lot of serious questioning.
How many decades do you think are needed?
Image
While I am not the biggest EMH guy around, I think attributing differences in market performance between countries to flaws in EMH is ignoring the role of society (customs), political climate, and natural resources in market performance for various countries.
Most EMH proponents argue that all of those factors along with all other possible factors should be incorporated into the prices. At the least, the implications of their argument is that the very long-term risk-adjusted returns of stocks in all countries should be the same. The fact that that has not at all been the case does not appear to deter most of them.
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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Steve Reading »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:19 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:24 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:52 am
The EMH deserves a lot of serious questioning.
How many decades do you think are needed?
Image
While I am not the biggest EMH guy around, I think attributing differences in market performance between countries to flaws in EMH is ignoring the role of society (customs), political climate, and natural resources in market performance for various countries.
Most EMH proponents argue that all of those factors along with all other possible factors should be incorporated into the prices. At the least, the implications of their argument is that the very long-term risk-adjusted returns of stocks in all countries should be the same. The fact that that has not at all been the case does not appear to deter most of them.
Well first of all, the returns shown aren't risk-adjusted but if you do risk-adjust, it does look closer (the countries with lower equity returns have lower safe returns too).
Secondly, I think the implication of the argument is that different countries should have similar expected risk-adjusted returns. The actual realized returns will be quite different. As time goes by, due to the law of large numbers, they will get closer. So we can say that the implication is that given infinite time, they will be the same. In any amount of finite time, they can be expected to differ.

Third, most importantly, I wouldn't take data from 1900 to be considered efficient any ways. I certainly don't think the EMH would apply back when few quants were in the industry and we didn't have computers. It wasn't really until ~1995 and onwards that we have hundreds of hedge funds, arbitrageurs and high-frequency trading computers ready to pounce on any inneficiency.

And finally, I don't think any one agrees markets are perfectly efficient any ways. Just mostly efficient.

As you said, data presented here does not deter me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BogleMelon »

Dow futures bounce by 150 points following Friday’s 600-point rout
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/us-futu ... fears.html

:sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jags4186 »

I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Well, the BULL is running strong this morning.

No records, but the bear is certainly hibernating.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it...
Just wait until the next bear market and see what happens to it.

Just my personal prediction, but they are selling expensive luxury toys, the kind of thing that does not sell well in a recession.

If I wanted any of it, which I don't, a recession would be the time to buy.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

in my opinion TSLA stock is in an epic bubble, when the next recession hits, which it will eventually my prediction is that Tesla isn't going to survive it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused


Well are they selling now?....as the only time to brag is when you actually cash in. Otherwise it's just paper profit that could be gone in a few months. It's an incredibly volatile stock.
Jags4186
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jags4186 »

rascott wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:20 am
Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused


Well are they selling now?....as the only time to brag is when you actually cash in. Otherwise it's just paper profit that could be gone in a few months. It's an incredibly volatile stock.
All I know is one has ordered a Tesla with their profits.

I sometimes wonder if I should make some “risky” bets, but I know that it’s a losers game and I’m not lucky. I still waste $5/wk on lottery tickets though :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Post by puc_ytpme »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:32 am in my opinion TSLA stock is in an epic bubble, when the next recession hits, which it will eventually my prediction is that Tesla isn't going to survive it.
Might be a bubble might not. I do know this, there is a generational shift in how people are viewing the environment(For the better).
The corporate world is slowing catching on & seeing a demand for cleaner products. Tesla happened to be ahead of the curve. Winter is coming for big oil. Up to the mellinnial’s & Gen Z to make this shift a lasting reality!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:22 am
rascott wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:20 am
Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused


Well are they selling now?....as the only time to brag is when you actually cash in. Otherwise it's just paper profit that could be gone in a few months. It's an incredibly volatile stock.
All I know is one has ordered a Tesla with their profits.

I sometimes wonder if I should make some “risky” bets, but I know that it’s a losers game and I’m not lucky. I still waste $5/wk on lottery tickets though :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag


Honestly if you are looking for lottery tickets/gambling... try options. At least your downside loss is a fixed amount.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:32 am in my opinion TSLA stock is in an epic bubble, when the next recession hits, which it will eventually my prediction is that Tesla isn't going to survive it.
Since we are all doing predictions here’s mine: GM or Ford (perhaps both) will declare bankruptcy before the decade is out — this time no bail out. Tesla, VW, Kia, Nissan and Toyota will be alive and well making cars.

Tesla, is quite obviously following the Amazon model, spending every dime it can to increase revenue and get market share. If you measure them by how much money they are making you are missing the entire point. They are a tech company, anyone who’s visited their campus Or factory can see this. Tech work ethic, approach to moving fast, to data (collection, analysis, value of data) and tech approach to making money to change the world — not for shareholders (though they will benefit along the ride).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused
Pff. I've been there done that with individual stocks. I learned my lesson and tuned out any stock discussions with friends like that. They usually brag on about small stocks that have 50%+ gain in a few days. And they fall on my deaf ears since I know my net worth is several times over theirs.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

mrspock wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:31 am
... They are a tech company, anyone who’s visited their campus Or factory can see this. Tech work ethic, approach to moving fast, to data (collection, analysis, value of data) and tech approach to making money to change the world — not for shareholders (though they will benefit along the ride).
You do realize that the "Tesla factory" first opened in 1961 as a GM assembly plant, went out of business, was re-opened as the NUMMI plant, and went under again. It is on its third life...
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Post by AnalogKid22 »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:05 am I have to admit, I am incredibly jealous/bitter right now. I have a few friends who all bought heavily into Tesla about 2 or 3 years ago and watching it just skyrocket the past 6 months is a tough pill to swallow...especially since they are letting me hear it.

In fairness, I guess it’s karma after I gave them a pretty big ribbing after it jump to $380ish following the “420” tweet and subsequent drop to 180.

Although I’m not a longtime investor, it seems to me that a big change between years past and today is the amount of people who buy a stock simply on liking a product and not fundamentals.

What do I know :confused
There will always be hot stocks and those willing to take the risk of getting in early. You just have no idea what will happen tomorrow. I've been tempted over the years to pour my entire portfolio into one or a few single stocks, such as MSFT, APPL, TSLA, and, of course, Bitcoin, just to name a few. These seemed like a sure thing years ago and they've certainly paid off very well for those who got in at the right time. My portfolio would be substantially larger had I taken the plunge, but, over the years, I've seen these stocks get hammered and shareholders panic-sell. They lost money while my index funds remained fairly steady or only dipped by a small fraction, in comparison, and I bought at a discount. As others have mentioned, the key, of course, to market timing is knowing when to get in and when to get out and I'm terrible at both.
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Post by oldzey »

Monday, Monday - So good to me...

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by NotTooDeepLearning »

The 10 Year 3 Month yield curve is inverted and the 10 year real yield is negative. Stocks and bonds are pointing towards different futures.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:45 am
mrspock wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:31 am
... They are a tech company, anyone who’s visited their campus Or factory can see this. Tech work ethic, approach to moving fast, to data (collection, analysis, value of data) and tech approach to making money to change the world — not for shareholders (though they will benefit along the ride).
You do realize that the "Tesla factory" first opened in 1961 as a GM assembly plant, went out of business, was re-opened as the NUMMI plant, and went under again. It is on its third life...
Yes, it’s one of the first things they mention on the tour :) .

The factory bears little resemblance to its former life, it’s light airy, clean as a whistle, attention to detail is everywhere, island of desks on the manufacturing floor. If anything, the pics they show demonstrate just how different their approach to manufacturing is (engineers on the floor vs in some ivory tower in Detroit — they try to solve problems same day vs weeks).
Last edited by mrspock on Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

TSLA is just unreal.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Stef wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:01 pm TSLA is just unreal.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lates ... =home-page

Some people thought it's smart to short sell TLSA.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Should I keep telling myself "Why didn't you buy at 180" till they reach 1+ trillion market cap? :o
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Stef wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:08 pm Should I keep telling myself "Why didn't you buy at 180" till they reach 1+ trillion market cap? :o
Should you already have TLSA by the virtue of investing in VTI?

The beauty of investing in Total U.S. stock: no regret, no fuss, no worries.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef »

Yeah of course but most of VTIs stocks are crap, you just don't know which.
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