U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Steve Reading » Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:42 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:32 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:29 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:07 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:38 am
Well, indices are slightly up at the open, but S&P is still hanging around just under 3200.

I wish there were a way to jab it in the behind with something sharp & pointy.
Hanging so close to 3,200. So close!

If Bogleheads would just buy individual stocks en masse - right now - our collective resources could push it over the mark.

(Oops, true Bogleheads don't buy individual stocks) :oops:
Why doesn’t buying the 3-fund help too?
Three fund wouldn’t help because any purchases made today probably won’t settle until late this afternoon. We needed a kick to the stock market NOW.

And we got it. S&P 3200 achieved. Less than 4 trading days until Christmas.
I know Bogle didn't like ETFs, but many of us do.

Tesla is soaring too... poor Dan :( .
Is Dan that guy who was saying stocks were a terrible choice right now and that the correct amount of stock was 0%? Dan Mahoney (?) something like that?

If so, that poster has been awfully quiet lately...

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am

305pelusa wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:42 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:32 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:29 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:07 am


Hanging so close to 3,200. So close!

If Bogleheads would just buy individual stocks en masse - right now - our collective resources could push it over the mark.

(Oops, true Bogleheads don't buy individual stocks) :oops:
Why doesn’t buying the 3-fund help too?
Three fund wouldn’t help because any purchases made today probably won’t settle until late this afternoon. We needed a kick to the stock market NOW.

And we got it. S&P 3200 achieved. Less than 4 trading days until Christmas.
I know Bogle didn't like ETFs, but many of us do.

Tesla is soaring too... poor Dan :( .
Is Dan that guy who was saying stocks were a terrible choice right now and that the correct amount of stock was 0%? Dan Mahoney (?) something like that?

If so, that poster has been awfully quiet lately...
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog » Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:03 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
305pelusa wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:42 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:32 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:29 am


Why doesn’t buying the 3-fund help too?
Three fund wouldn’t help because any purchases made today probably won’t settle until late this afternoon. We needed a kick to the stock market NOW.

And we got it. S&P 3200 achieved. Less than 4 trading days until Christmas.
I know Bogle didn't like ETFs, but many of us do.

Tesla is soaring too... poor Dan :( .
Is Dan that guy who was saying stocks were a terrible choice right now and that the correct amount of stock was 0%? Dan Mahoney (?) something like that?

If so, that poster has been awfully quiet lately...
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
Yep. I haven't seen him around. maybe his prediction might pan out still... :wink:
Global Market Cap Equity/1 Year Cash/Bonds || 25x Expenses

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:32 pm

Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:07 am
Hanging so close to 3,200. So close!

If Bogleheads would just buy individual stocks en masse - right now - our collective resources could push it over the mark.

(Oops, true Bogleheads don't buy individual stocks) :oops:
When we buy VOO Vanguard buys the stocks for us. I'm doing my best but have to hold cash until after January 1st for the all in Roth contribution. I just hope this isn't the reverse of last year when the crash came just before the contribution.

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:13 pm

Great day for the S&P 500 today, and a good counterbalance to last year’s poor showing if this holds through the end of the year.

May 2020, be even 1/3 as good as 2020!

orhkaf
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by orhkaf » Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:15 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
305pelusa wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:42 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:32 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:29 am


Why doesn’t buying the 3-fund help too?
Three fund wouldn’t help because any purchases made today probably won’t settle until late this afternoon. We needed a kick to the stock market NOW.

And we got it. S&P 3200 achieved. Less than 4 trading days until Christmas.
I know Bogle didn't like ETFs, but many of us do.

Tesla is soaring too... poor Dan :( .
Is Dan that guy who was saying stocks were a terrible choice right now and that the correct amount of stock was 0%? Dan Mahoney (?) something like that?

If so, that poster has been awfully quiet lately...
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
ROFL...was thinking this exact thing last week.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:25 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
It is a good thing I decided to go 100% passive. In my younger days, I would have been pretty tempted to short TSLA about 12 mos. ago. It is still not clear the company will survive, but they sure are lasting longer than I could have staying the game.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:52 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:25 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
It is a good thing I decided to go 100% passive. In my younger days, I would have been pretty tempted to short TSLA about 12 mos. ago. It is still not clear the company will survive, but they sure are lasting longer than I could have staying the game.
It's easy to keep going when the price of your product is subsidized.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:03 pm

Nice little bubble up near the close to a new record high for S&P.

I think that Santa Claus is making the rounds. Along with some FOMO.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:25 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
It is a good thing I decided to go 100% passive. In my younger days, I would have been pretty tempted to short TSLA about 12 mos. ago. It is still not clear the company will survive, but they sure are lasting longer than I could have staying the game.
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. If I short $10k worth of TSLA, there very best thing that can happen to me is that the company goes belly-up and I make $10k. BUT a much more likely scenario is that the company has some residual value and I only make $5k or so. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.

If I take a long position, even in an individual stock the odds are good that I can make money, and I know I will never lose more than the amount I put in to start with.

UberGrub
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UberGrub » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:16 pm

CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:25 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
It is a good thing I decided to go 100% passive. In my younger days, I would have been pretty tempted to short TSLA about 12 mos. ago. It is still not clear the company will survive, but they sure are lasting longer than I could have staying the game.
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. If I short $10k worth of TSLA, there very best thing that can happen to me is that the company goes belly-up and I make $10k. BUT a much more likely scenario is that the company has some residual value and I only make $5k or so. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.

If I take a long position, even in an individual stock the odds are good that I can make money, and I know I will never lose more than the amount I put in to start with.
It might make sense for some Tesla employees to short the stock.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:17 pm

Keep soaring, Santa Claus!

Image

Only 3 more trading days until Christmas!
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:20 pm

Santa uses a jet now????? :confused Are the reindeer drawing SS now?

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Gettin' old ain't all it's cracked up to be. :oops:
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:36 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:20 pm
Santa uses a jet now????? :confused Are the reindeer drawing SS now?

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Gettin' old ain't all it's cracked up to be. :oops:
I think PETA caused the change. No exploiting the reindeer, most likely.

Of course soon Santa will draw the ire of those decrying the use of fossil fuels to power his sleigh. He is in a tough spot.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:39 pm

CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. If I short $10k worth of TSLA, there very best thing that can happen to me is that the company goes belly-up and I make $10k. BUT a much more likely scenario is that the company has some residual value and I only make $5k or so. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.

If I take a long position, even in an individual stock the odds are good that I can make money, and I know I will never lose more than the amount I put in to start with.
I think it's like watching a soap opera. It just makes you feel so alive.....
A fool and your money are soon partners

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TierArtz
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TierArtz » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:40 pm

Per the Morningstar app's US Barometer, every 9 field box is green (gains) for the day, week, month, 3 month, year, and 3 years. Its been quite awhile since they did not have at least a flash of red.

Looks like it will be a Merry Christmas for many reasons! But, if we get a repeat of last year I'll just buy more cheaper :D

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sreynard » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:42 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:36 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:20 pm
Santa uses a jet now????? :confused Are the reindeer drawing SS now?

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Gettin' old ain't all it's cracked up to be. :oops:
I think PETA caused the change. No exploiting the reindeer, most likely.

Of course soon Santa will draw the ire of those decrying the use of fossil fuels to power his sleigh. He is in a tough spot.

Broken Man 1999
Hey reindeer are great! Very tasty...

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:11 pm

Another record high close for the DOW.

Another record high for portfolio.

Dare we think of DOW 30,000? :shock:

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:19 pm

TierArtz wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:40 pm
Per the Morningstar app's US Barometer, every 9 field box is green (gains) for the day, week, month, 3 month, year, and 3 years. Its been quite awhile since they did not have at least a flash of red.

Looks like it will be a Merry Christmas for many reasons! But, if we get a repeat of last year I'll just buy more cheaper :D
A very Merry Christmas! As for sudden drops in the market, I'd like to wait a year, so that I'm ahead on all my savings & accumulation metrics. Then, yeah, I'm good with a sale. It's illogical, but as long as we're telling the market what to do I'd like to savor this year. :wink:
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:27 pm

S&P 500 Index
INDEXSP: .INX
3,205.37 +14.23 (0.45%)
Dec 19, 4:49 PM EST · Disclaimer

Very happy. Record results.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:47 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:20 pm
Santa uses a jet now????? :confused Are the reindeer drawing SS now?

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Gettin' old ain't all it's cracked up to be. :oops:
Nah. He uses a helicopter. I know this because I see it every day in the front yard of a house down the road. It looks like it might be inflatable--probably so he can allocate more weight for all those toys. Technology these days! :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:59 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am

DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
He's not wrong yet. Plenty of future yet. :happy

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:17 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am

DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
He's not wrong yet. Plenty of future yet. :happy
The gloating is a bit unseemly.

He was predicting Dow 16K back then, not 10k.
He might still end up being right, but his timing was a bit off. When pressed, he predicted to hit that by May 2019.

As we have seen from numerous examples, accurately predicting the future of the market is hard.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:50 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:17 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am

DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
He's not wrong yet. Plenty of future yet. :happy
The gloating is a bit unseemly.

He was predicting Dow 16K back then, not 10k.
He might still end up being right, but his timing was a bit off. When pressed, he predicted to hit that by May 2019.

As we have seen from numerous examples, accurately predicting the future of the market is hard.
It's nothing more than a guessing game.

The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:26 pm

CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.
You can only lose as much as you have in your brokerage margin account; you would get a margin call and if you can make it the broker will sell your borrowed stock.
The people who do it ether have inside information or are gamblers.

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:23 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:26 pm
CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.
You can only lose as much as you have in your brokerage margin account; you would get a margin call and if you can make it the broker will sell your borrowed stock.
The people who do it ether have inside information or are gamblers.
1. The amount in one's brokerage account might be a whole lot more than one is willing to short. Maybe 10x to 100x more.

2. About 30 years ago I had a friend who shorted something at an inopportune moment. She didn't have a lot extra in her account, but by the time her brokerage forced coverage of the short, her account was negative a few thousand $. It took her a while to pay that off and she was not happy.

No shorts for me -- ever.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:40 am

marcopolo wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:17 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am

DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
He's not wrong yet. Plenty of future yet. :happy
The gloating is a bit unseemly.

He was predicting Dow 16K back then, not 10k.
He might still end up being right, but his timing was a bit off. When pressed, he predicted to hit that by May 2019.

As we have seen from numerous examples, accurately predicting the future of the market is hard.
If your timing is off, you're wrong. He cannot still end up being right.

He predicted 16k by May 2019... He was wrong. And not just a little bit wrong.. Completely absolutely wrong. Yet he posted like he absolutely knew the future.. No doubt in his posts. But it turns out, he didn't know the future. Just like the rest of us.

Gloating is unseemly though, I agree.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:38 am

sreynard wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:42 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:36 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:20 pm
Santa uses a jet now????? :confused Are the reindeer drawing SS now?

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Gettin' old ain't all it's cracked up to be. :oops:
I think PETA caused the change. No exploiting the reindeer, most likely.

Of course soon Santa will draw the ire of those decrying the use of fossil fuels to power his sleigh. He is in a tough spot.

Broken Man 1999
Hey reindeer are great! Very tasty...
Indeed - Rudolph for dinner! Bon Appétit.

Campfire Cooking Reindeer for Christmas

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:48 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:23 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:26 pm
CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm
I have never understood the thinking behind shorting a stock. OTOH I can lose an unlimited amount if they get lucky and the stock goes through the roof.
You can only lose as much as you have in your brokerage margin account; you would get a margin call and if you can make it the broker will sell your borrowed stock.
The people who do it ether have inside information or are gamblers.
1. The amount in one's brokerage account might be a whole lot more than one is willing to short. Maybe 10x to 100x more.

2. About 30 years ago I had a friend who shorted something at an inopportune moment. She didn't have a lot extra in her account, but by the time her brokerage forced coverage of the short, her account was negative a few thousand $. It took her a while to pay that off and she was not happy.

No shorts for me -- ever.
Generally it’s better to short something while having offsetting long exposure. Direxion has some interesting funds that go 150% long, -50% short different market segments for example. Say small vs. large cap, or US vs. ex-US. Nobody is getting wiped out doing that, but you may very well underperform.

finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:46 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:52 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:25 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am
DanMahowny, yup. I believe he had a large short position on TSLA and was in short-treasuries. Predicting DOW 10K or something around there.
It is a good thing I decided to go 100% passive. In my younger days, I would have been pretty tempted to short TSLA about 12 mos. ago. It is still not clear the company will survive, but they sure are lasting longer than I could have staying the game.
It's easy to keep going when the price of your product is subsidized.
Tell that to big oil right now, or any of the other numerous subsidized industries.

When you short don’t you have to do it for a specific period of time? Or can you leave it open?

The best defense of the practice of shorting I’ve seen is that it helps keep markets honest because it rewards discovery of fraud. Otherwise, if shorting was illegal, there would be no reward for discovering fraudulent activity which, painful as it may be, can help inform stock prices. Shorting thus acts as an imperfect but better-than-nothing pressure relief valve to prevent market overheating.

But it’s definitely not a good idea to short for anyone but the professionals.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:57 am

Speaking of shorts... I remember when people thought Hussman was a genius, doesn't looks so hot these days....
Image
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:08 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:57 am
Speaking of shorts... I remember when people thought Hussman was a genius, doesn't looks so hot these days....
Wow! He somehow still has $250M under management after 10 years of consistent LOSSES, not just relative to the indexes, but in absolute terms! ER is 1.25%

edited: I misread the morningstar quad charts, sigh.

ge1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ge1 » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:13 am

Hussman had 8bn at the peak, so 250m is a huge drop. I would imagine mostly his own and family money.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:18 am

retiringwhen wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:08 am
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:57 am
Speaking of shorts... I remember when people thought Hussman was a genius, doesn't looks so hot these days....
Wow! He somehow still has $250M under management after 10 years of consistent LOSSES, not just relative to the indexes, but in absolute terms! ER is 1.25%
Hopefully the people that buy into it are really happy with the "diversification beyond conventional long-only investment strategies".
It certainly has been uncorrelated with the broad stock market if being a good "diversifier" is your thing.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:19 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:57 am
Speaking of shorts... I remember when people thought Hussman was a genius, doesn't looks so hot these days....
Image
What kind of strategy is he running here? With such steady declines I have to imagine there’s a substantial insurance/hedge aspect and if we have a prolonged bear it is positioned to make up those losses quick.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:21 am

Futures are SOARING near the open.

Another record day on Wall Street?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:22 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:19 am
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:57 am
Speaking of shorts... I remember when people thought Hussman was a genius, doesn't looks so hot these days....
Image
What kind of strategy is he running here? With such steady declines I have to imagine there’s a substantial insurance/hedge aspect and if we have a prolonged bear it is positioned to make up those losses quick.
LOL, yet another massive failure at market timing.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:24 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:19 am
...
What kind of strategy is he running here? With such steady declines I have to imagine there’s a substantial insurance/hedge aspect and if we have a prolonged bear it is positioned to make up those losses quick.
It's a long-short fund. I believe it's something like 50% short S&P 500, 50% cash, 100% leveraged individual stock picking...
Also known as:
Bluce wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:22 am
...
..
LOL, yet another massive failure at market timing.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:33 am

Stinky wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:21 am
Futures are SOARING near the open.

Another record day on Wall Street?
Confirmed!!

Stocks are soaring today!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am

Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:25 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
I had a CD come due yesterday. I just plunked it into more ISTB, a 1-5 year total bond market ETF that is my core bond holding.

I have another CD coming due on the 30th and will also dump it into ISTB. At some point I will spread it out into my other bond funds unless stocks take A YUGE DUMP (sorry Stinky!) and I will market-time ( :shock: ) into a bit more TSM. :!: :!:
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:38 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
Which one is it? :D
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:39 am

Stinky wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:38 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
Which one is it? :D
For a few reasons, I hope a top.

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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Steve Reading » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:44 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
See? If you had a dedicated Emergency Fund, you wouldn’t have to be paying taxes to cover emergencies.

Oh wait...

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:46 am

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:44 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
See? If you had a dedicated Emergency Fund, you wouldn’t have to be paying taxes to cover emergencies.

Oh wait...
I came out ahead :).

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:50 am

I am sorry to hear about your emergency, unless it was a happy emergency like you suddenly had to buy a new boat or a Brough Superior or something you like.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ReformedSpender » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:56 am

It's great that so many are ecstatic with the performance of the market.

Personally, I think this pace is unsustainable

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:12 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:46 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:44 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
See? If you had a dedicated Emergency Fund, you wouldn’t have to be paying taxes to cover emergencies.

Oh wait...
I came out ahead :).
No doubt. Paying taxes means you have gains, probably very nice ones.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

UberGrub
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UberGrub » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:21 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:12 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:46 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:44 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
See? If you had a dedicated Emergency Fund, you wouldn’t have to be paying taxes to cover emergencies.

Oh wait...
I came out ahead :).
No doubt. Paying taxes means you have gains, probably very nice ones.
I think that was 305’s point/joke. I’m pretty sure he’s against dedicated EFs and just says to invest as per your AA and withdraw when you need.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:26 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:12 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:46 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:44 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:09 am
Just had to sell a chunk of Total Market (ITOT) for an emergency; short term gain (would’ve gone long right after new year). Today is now either the market top, or the beginning of a massive run up.
See? If you had a dedicated Emergency Fund, you wouldn’t have to be paying taxes to cover emergencies.

Oh wait...
I came out ahead :).
No doubt. Paying taxes means you have gains, probably very nice ones.
Unfortunately it was a TLH position from 1/3/19 so it ended up being close to a wash.
Last edited by MotoTrojan on Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:36 am, edited 2 times in total.

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