U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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bck63
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bck63 » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:52 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:15 pm
bck63 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:05 pm
bck63 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:47 pm
jebmke wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:39 pm

Always have to remind myself how fleeting it is. I remember hitting a high (all time, at the time?) in October, 2007. I retired two months later (schedule set much earlier) at the end of December. Exciting times ahead.
Yikes. Had to be a tough time ahead right after retirement. Any thoughts for preparing for such a big downturn?
Pick an AA that you could stick with if the GFC happened again (i.e. stocks fall by 50%).
Good advice. That's exactly what I'm doing. And as I've pondered this, and really looked at myself, I've come to realize that I'm much more risk averse than I thought I was.
When stuff actually goes haywire, we usually find ourselves far less risk tolerant than we thought.
I agree. I am 56, can easily meet my goals with a 3% return or so, and am dialing back to 30/70 over time. Currently 55/45. I will be 30/70, plus probably two years cash reserves, which makes me comfortable.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:12 pm

oldzey wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:15 pm
A good start to the week for U.S. stocks! :beer
[/snip image of eagle flying over mountains]
And a good end to the week for U.S. stocks! :sharebeer
Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:11 am

mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:45 pm
mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:35 pm
*deep breath* Do you smell that? I love the smell of the soaring S&P 500 index in the morning...it smells like freedom.
I thought freedom was just another word for nothing left to lose? :confused
I was referring to the feeling of freedom financial independence or retirement gives :) .
I took Poetic license and quoted Janis Joplin.

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:12 am

I removed an off-topic post and a reply. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters.
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by corn18 » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:26 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:11 am
mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:45 pm
mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:35 pm
*deep breath* Do you smell that? I love the smell of the soaring S&P 500 index in the morning...it smells like freedom.
I thought freedom was just another word for nothing left to lose? :confused
I was referring to the feeling of freedom financial independence or retirement gives :) .
I took Poetic license and quoted Janis Joplin.
Awesome singer/songwriter. We need some more Janis on BH! Or maybe "How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?"
Don't do something, just stand there!

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 305pelusa » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:30 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:12 am
I removed an off-topic post and a reply. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters.
Thank you MOD. Those posts made me uncomfortable :/

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas » Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:17 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:11 am
mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:45 pm
mrspock wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:35 pm
*deep breath* Do you smell that? I love the smell of the soaring S&P 500 index in the morning...it smells like freedom.
I thought freedom was just another word for nothing left to lose? :confused
I was referring to the feeling of freedom financial independence or retirement gives :) .
I took Poetic license and quoted Janis Joplin.
You quoted Kris Kristofferson, he wrote that song.
You never miss your water till your well runs dry.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:19 am

Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:13 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:06 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:49 am
...[/img]
Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Pigs add "Diversification" :P
Pork bellies! Which you use to make bacon. Like in a bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich.
There is an epidemic going around that could kill 1/4 of the world's population of pigs. Someone floated the idea of a strategic bacon reserve. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:19 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:13 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:06 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:49 am
...[/img]
Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Pigs add "Diversification" :P
Pork bellies! Which you use to make bacon. Like in a bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich.
There is an epidemic going around that could kill 1/4 of the world's population of pigs. Someone floated the idea of a strategic bacon reserve. :wink:
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up. :o

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:57 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:19 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:13 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:06 am

Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Pigs add "Diversification" :P
Pork bellies! Which you use to make bacon. Like in a bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich.
There is an epidemic going around that could kill 1/4 of the world's population of pigs. Someone floated the idea of a strategic bacon reserve. :wink:
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up. :o
Pigs get slaughtered but someone makes money on the pigs, both in real life and in the markets. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

jebmke
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jebmke » Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up.
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market. Classic by-product problem. China doesn't consume much bacon so when they import pork from the US there is a lot of surplus bacon.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:12 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:57 pm
Pigs get slaughtered but someone makes money on the pigs, both in real life and in the markets. :wink:
In "an earlier life" I raised a few pigs every year (I quit around '90 or maybe '91). I butchered and processed everything myself. I would keep one and give one to my parents, and sell any others.

It didn't matter to me, but maybe something to ponder: Although homegrown pork does taste much better, considering the feed costs and the time it takes it's cheaper to buy it in the supermarket.

But I have NO IDEA what pork bellies are selling for at this moment. Fresh sliced pork "bellies" (same meat bacon is made from) is called "side pork," and is fried just like bacon -- usually for breakfast. My dad loved it, seems pretty tasteless to me. :shock:

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:44 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:12 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:57 pm
Pigs get slaughtered but someone makes money on the pigs, both in real life and in the markets. :wink:
In "an earlier life" I raised a few pigs every year (I quit around '90 or maybe '91). I butchered and processed everything myself. I would keep one and give one to my parents, and sell any others.

It didn't matter to me, but maybe something to ponder: Although homegrown pork does taste much better, considering the feed costs and the time it takes it's cheaper to buy it in the supermarket.

But I have NO IDEA what pork bellies are selling for at this moment. Fresh sliced pork "bellies" (same meat bacon is made from) is called "side pork," and is fried just like bacon -- usually for breakfast. My dad loved it, seems pretty tasteless to me. :shock:
Here at Bogleheads, we raise our own bacon and our own investment portfolios. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:22 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:17 am
You quoted Kris Kristofferson, he wrote that song.
I quoted ether Kris Kristofferson or Fred Foster the cowriter. I don't know which wrote that line.
jebmke wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market.
Pork bellies are no longer listed commodities. So sad.

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:29 pm

Please stay on-topic.
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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm

U.S. stocks, please continue to soar!

Thank you!

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:20 pm

oldzey wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm
U.S. stocks, please continue to soar!

Thank you!
...
Nice image :beer
🇺🇸 Strength Opportunity Aspiration Results 🇺🇸
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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:57 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:20 pm
oldzey wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm
U.S. stocks, please continue to soar!

Thank you!
...
Nice image :beer
🇺🇸 Strength Opportunity Aspiration Results 🇺🇸
Thank you, JoMoney!

SOAR, indeed! :sharebeer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:57 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:20 pm
oldzey wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm
U.S. stocks, please continue to soar!

Thank you!
...
Nice image :beer
🇺🇸 Strength Opportunity Aspiration Results 🇺🇸
Thank you, JoMoney!

SOAR, indeed! :sharebeer
I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:14 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:
Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Exuberance? When novice investors are constantly questioning whether it's alright to put a four figure sum into stocks right now?

The stock market run over the last 10+ years seems to have been the most unloved in history, despite having more than tripled in real dollars.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:14 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:
Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Exuberance? When novice investors are constantly questioning whether it's alright to put a four figure sum into stocks right now?

The stock market run over the last 10+ years seems to have been the most unloved in history, despite having more than tripled in real dollars.
Much like the proverbial "Taper Tantrum" of 2013 -- when rates had nowhere to go but UP! -- we seem to be in a Raging Bull Tantrum . . . he's gasping his last breath now, any day . . . :shock:

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:20 pm

Futures are UP... I know it isn't entirely reliable but it's looking promising for another robust week ahead.

clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by clip651 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:38 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 pm

Much like the proverbial "Taper Tantrum" of 2013 -- when rates had nowhere to go but UP! -- we seem to be in a Raging Bull Tantrum . . . he's gasping his last breath now, any day . . . :shock:
I suspect you're joking, but it just hits me funny as I've been reading that the bull can't possibly go on for much longer since I started investing 5 years ago (look at my join date). Back then, there were plenty of posts worrying if people should put money into the market when it was so high. Lots more posts like that during highs since then . There have been ups and downs since then (the initial Brexit vote was a sudden dip, but pretty short, for example), but good sized gains overall. If I'd given in to all the people worrying that the bull must be over soon, I'd still be on the sidelines after 5 years reading here.

Who knows where it goes from here! But plenty of people think they know, or think they know what couldn't happen next. :wink: Makes for entertaining reading, at least.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:20 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:20 pm
Futures are UP... I know it isn't entirely reliable but it's looking promising for another robust week ahead.
Given recent history, I'd say that futures being up now means that stocks will finish down tomorrow.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

mikeyzito22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mikeyzito22 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:20 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:20 pm
Futures are UP... I know it isn't entirely reliable but it's looking promising for another robust week ahead.
Given recent history, I'd say that futures being up now means that stocks will finish down tomorrow.
So is the community supposed to take 'recent history' as a test now? I'm just wondering because I always thought (as taught here on Bogleheads) that recency bias is not a good thing. Curious to know your thoughts.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:25 pm

clip651 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:38 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 pm

Much like the proverbial "Taper Tantrum" of 2013 -- when rates had nowhere to go but UP! -- we seem to be in a Raging Bull Tantrum . . . he's gasping his last breath now, any day . . . :shock:
I suspect you're joking, but it just hits me funny as I've been reading that the bull can't possibly go on for much longer since I started investing 5 years ago (look at my join date). Back then, there were plenty of posts worrying if people should put money into the market when it was so high. Lots more posts like that during highs since then . There have been ups and downs since then (the initial Brexit vote was a sudden dip, but pretty short, for example), but good sized gains overall. If I'd given in to all the people worrying that the bull must be over soon, I'd still be on the sidelines after 5 years reading here.

Who knows where it goes from here! But plenty of people think they know, or think they know what couldn't happen next. :wink: Makes for entertaining reading, at least.
Image

Here is a 90 year view.

More details here: Bulls-n-Bears

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:33 pm

clip651 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:38 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 pm

Much like the proverbial "Taper Tantrum" of 2013 -- when rates had nowhere to go but UP! -- we seem to be in a Raging Bull Tantrum . . . he's gasping his last breath now, any day . . . :shock:
I suspect you're joking, but it just hits me funny as I've been reading that the bull can't possibly go on for much longer since I started investing 5 years ago (look at my join date). Back then, there were plenty of posts worrying if people should put money into the market when it was so high. Lots more posts like that during highs since then . There have been ups and downs since then (the initial Brexit vote was a sudden dip, but pretty short, for example), but good sized gains overall. If I'd given in to all the people worrying that the bull must be over soon, I'd still be on the sidelines after 5 years reading here.

Who knows where it goes from here! But plenty of people think they know, or think they know what couldn't happen next. :wink: Makes for entertaining reading, at least.
Yes, my post was tongue-in-cheek because the Taper Tantrum Tyrants have been wrong for over 6 years, and The Raging Bull has been called dead for around that long too.

May 2013: "Interest rates have NOWHERE to go but UP!"

The 10-year Treasury since then:

Image


Numerous expert matadors have been claiming the stock market bull was dying for a good five years now:

Image

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:14 am

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Last time Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" didn't it take a couple of years to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs?

anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:29 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:14 am
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Last time Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" didn't it take a couple of years to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs?
Took more than 3 years. The quote was made Dec 1996.

But timing is everything, so most of what Fed chairs have said has been pretty worthless. Including but not limited to "no nationwide bubble in housing" and "subprime is contained". Shortly we will be proving "no crisis in our lifetime" wrong as well.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:43 am

Futures are up nicely again this morning.

Should be a good day for those invested in stocks! New record highs await us.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:52 am

Me, later this winter

Image
A fool and your money are soon partners

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:25 am

mikeyzito22 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:23 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:20 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:20 pm
Futures are UP... I know it isn't entirely reliable but it's looking promising for another robust week ahead.
Given recent history, I'd say that futures being up now means that stocks will finish down tomorrow.
So is the community supposed to take 'recent history' as a test now? I'm just wondering because I always thought (as taught here on Bogleheads) that recency bias is not a good thing. Curious to know your thoughts.
No, I was being facetious, like a great many of the posts in this thread and the 'freefall' thread.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:36 am

Not surprised to see individuals becoming more complacent with the market action lately.

Just in time for a pullback
:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:05 am

anoop wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:29 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:14 am
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Last time Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" didn't it take a couple of years to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs?
Took more than 3 years. The quote was made Dec 1996.
And then the market more than doubled over the next 3 years, and then crashed 40%. It never actually got as low as it was in 1996, so even with valuations the highest they had been since the Great Depression, and with the Fed chairman himself claiming "irrational exuberance", 1996 was still a good time to buy.
The J stands for Jay

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:11 am

I see that the markets are up again today! Recession fears are proving unfounded.
A fool and his money are good for business.

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:20 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:05 am
...And then the market more than doubled over the next 3 years, and then crashed 40%. It never actually got as low as it was in 1996, so even with valuations the highest they had been since the Great Depression, and with the Fed chairman himself claiming "irrational exuberance", 1996 was still a good time to buy.
That was long before this forum existed, but DW and I were putting 14%, rising to 18% over the years, of salaries into S&P index funds, keeping a little fun money on the side, and buying rentals. It worked.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:23 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:20 am
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:05 am
...And then the market more than doubled over the next 3 years, and then crashed 40%. It never actually got as low as it was in 1996, so even with valuations the highest they had been since the Great Depression, and with the Fed chairman himself claiming "irrational exuberance", 1996 was still a good time to buy.
That was long before this forum existed, but DW and I were putting 14%, rising to 18% over the years, of salaries into S&P index funds, keeping a little fun money on the side, and buying rentals. It worked.
In the end savings rate is what matters. And taking risks. Volatility while regularly investing is an amazing thing.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:49 am

"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

wolf359
Posts: 1962
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wolf359 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am

jebmke wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up.
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market. Classic by-product problem. China doesn't consume much bacon so when they import pork from the US there is a lot of surplus bacon.
I don't believe this is correct.

Pork bellies sliced thinly and cured is bacon.
Pork bellies are used extensively in Chinese cuisine. They just don't prepare it as bacon.
Actually, if you walk into any Asian grocery store, you can see which parts they eat. There are almost no byproducts that don't get consumed.

There was a shortage in pigs in China in recent years. In anticipation, US farmers increased their pork herds. The problem is that nobody anticipated the trade war, so now there's an oversupply of pork bellies in the US because China has cancelled the contracts. Hopefully when the trade war gets resolved, the pork market will stabilize.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/ ... rs-1538546

There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far as the Fed can go.

Taxes have already been cut.

Earnings are probably as high as they're going to get.

It's possible to go higher from here, but what additional good news can drop to boost the market further? Is anybody else left to buy into stocks?

It's mainly the trade war generating bad economic news. If it resolves, markets will climb for a last hurrah, but I'm not sure what's next. I'm not commenting on current Presidential politics, other than to say that the US Presidential election is next year, and that election day will resolve at least the issue of who is President. (I already learned last time that I have no ability to predict how the markets will react to political events.)

Always be ready for a downturn, but stay invested so you benefit from an upturn as well. Diversification works.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:38 am

retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:23 am

In the end savings rate is what matters. And taking risks. Volatility while regularly investing is an amazing thing.
Buy the dips. Where are the panic sellers of a year ago? That was a sweet dip just before the Roth IRA all in for 2019.
Image

StrangePenguin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by StrangePenguin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:53 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:38 am
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:23 am

In the end savings rate is what matters. And taking risks. Volatility while regularly investing is an amazing thing.
Buy the dips. Where are the panic sellers of a year ago? That was a sweet dip just before the Roth IRA all in for 2019.
Image
If only the "Christmas 2018" dip had held on a bit longer. By the time I got my annual bonus in late March prices weren't so low anymore.

StrangePenguin
Posts: 118
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by StrangePenguin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:54 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am
jebmke wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up.
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market. Classic by-product problem. China doesn't consume much bacon so when they import pork from the US there is a lot of surplus bacon.
I don't believe this is correct.

Pork bellies sliced thinly and cured is bacon.
Pork bellies are used extensively in Chinese cuisine. They just don't prepare it as bacon.
Actually, if you walk into any Asian grocery store, you can see which parts they eat. There are almost no byproducts that don't get consumed.

There was a shortage in pigs in China in recent years. In anticipation, US farmers increased their pork herds. The problem is that nobody anticipated the trade war, so now there's an oversupply of pork bellies in the US because China has cancelled the contracts. Hopefully when the trade war gets resolved, the pork market will stabilize.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/ ... rs-1538546

There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far as the Fed can go.

Taxes have already been cut.

Earnings are probably as high as they're going to get.

It's possible to go higher from here, but what additional good news can drop to boost the market further? Is anybody else left to buy into stocks?

It's mainly the trade war generating bad economic news. If it resolves, markets will climb for a last hurrah, but I'm not sure what's next. I'm not commenting on current Presidential politics, other than to say that the US Presidential election is next year, and that election day will resolve at least the issue of who is President. (I already learned last time that I have no ability to predict how the markets will react to political events.)

Always be ready for a downturn, but stay invested so you benefit from an upturn as well. Diversification works.
I think you've got the wrong thread. This belongs in the "Pork belly prices in free fall" thread. :D

wolf359
Posts: 1962
Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:47 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wolf359 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:08 pm

StrangePenguin wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:54 pm
wolf359 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am
jebmke wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up.
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market. Classic by-product problem. China doesn't consume much bacon so when they import pork from the US there is a lot of surplus bacon.
I don't believe this is correct.

Pork bellies sliced thinly and cured is bacon.
Pork bellies are used extensively in Chinese cuisine. They just don't prepare it as bacon.
Actually, if you walk into any Asian grocery store, you can see which parts they eat. There are almost no byproducts that don't get consumed.

There was a shortage in pigs in China in recent years. In anticipation, US farmers increased their pork herds. The problem is that nobody anticipated the trade war, so now there's an oversupply of pork bellies in the US because China has cancelled the contracts. Hopefully when the trade war gets resolved, the pork market will stabilize.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/ ... rs-1538546

There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far as the Fed can go.

Taxes have already been cut.

Earnings are probably as high as they're going to get.

It's possible to go higher from here, but what additional good news can drop to boost the market further? Is anybody else left to buy into stocks?

It's mainly the trade war generating bad economic news. If it resolves, markets will climb for a last hurrah, but I'm not sure what's next. I'm not commenting on current Presidential politics, other than to say that the US Presidential election is next year, and that election day will resolve at least the issue of who is President. (I already learned last time that I have no ability to predict how the markets will react to political events.)

Always be ready for a downturn, but stay invested so you benefit from an upturn as well. Diversification works.
I think you've got the wrong thread. This belongs in the "Pork belly prices in free fall" thread. :D
Hey, I actually tied the topic back to the stock market to make it relevant!

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:55 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am
jebmke wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:27 pm
Dang, I can't live without bacon. Imma headin' to the store tomorrow and stock up.
Actually, there is a glut of bacon on the market. Classic by-product problem. China doesn't consume much bacon so when they import pork from the US there is a lot of surplus bacon.
It's mainly the trade war generating bad economic news. If it resolves, markets will climb for a last hurrah, but I'm not sure what's next. I'm not commenting on current Presidential politics, other than to say that the US Presidential election is next year, and that election day will resolve at least the issue of who is President. (I already learned last time that I have no ability to predict how the markets will react to political events.)
This has certainly been a hot topic in financial news, but is it really that critical or just a tool to sway the market? Day-after-day of "worry" or "optimism" over trade with China has to wear on investors eventually. Say we finally reach a trade deal, whether good for the US or not, and we can expect a single-day spike (soar) of 1-3%? But, as you say, what's next?

DaftInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DaftInvestor » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:56 pm

Days like today make me recall friends, and some posters here in Bogleheads land, that stated 2 or 3 years ago they were pulling out of the stock market since there was surely a big crash coming soon that they wanted to buy back into. It's been a nice run-up I am surely glad I haven't missed.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:07 pm

All-time high for DOW.

All-time high for portfolio.

Life is very good.

I would be very surprised if we don't see some decline tomorrow, but, we could just as easily see another all-time high. Whatever we see, we will see.

This has been a pretty good year for us.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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Stinky
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Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:11 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:07 pm
All-time high for DOW.

All-time high for portfolio.

Life is very good.

I would be very surprised if we don't see some decline tomorrow, but, we could just as easily see another all-time high. Whatever we see, we will see.

This has been a pretty good year for us.

Broken Man 1999
This has been a pretty good year for anyone who is invested in the stock market. 2019 began with stock indices at a low point after the pullback late in 2018, and it's been an uneven, but nice, rise during 2019.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:21 pm

I'm pretty happy about my Total Bond, Short-term and Intermediate-term Treasury Index MFs. They have been rock-star investments for us.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:23 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am


There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far as the Fed can go.

Taxes have already been cut.

Earnings are probably as high as they're going to get.

It's possible to go higher from here, but what additional good news can drop to boost the market further? Is anybody else left to buy into stocks?
All the people that have been out of the market for several years saying thing like this?

I am not sure how long you have been investing, but do you recall the euphoria over stocks in the late 90's, people quitting their jobs to become day traders. Or the euphoria around house flipping in 2007ish? Do you see anything like that kind of capitulation buying? I see quite the opposite, a constant stream of hand wringing about the impending doom. Which probably means it is not coming anytime soon, but sure to come someday.

Not that any of this matters, i would not act on the prognostications in either case.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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