U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:57 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:22 am
After 3 months of sideways movement, it's nice to see the S&P reach new highs.
Cheers! :beer

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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:05 am

minesweep wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:53 am

Ruppell's Griffon Vulture. It's the highest flying bird ever recorded at 37,000 ft.

Top 10 Highest Flying Birds In The World
Cool it with the vultures -- that is completely the wrong image. :oops:

If we want a bird, a nice Mallard or even a Crane from that list is good.

I am thinking a SR-71 might be nice. A good-looking airplane with some serious credentials.

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:12 am

Maybe we should use space ships or rockets?

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:12 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:05 am
I am thinking a SR-71 might be nice. A good-looking airplane with some serious credentials.
The analogy may be a very good one, a plane faster than any missile at the time but one that required frequent refueling.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:17 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:12 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:05 am
I am thinking a SR-71 might be nice. A good-looking airplane with some serious credentials.
The analogy may be a very good one, a plane faster than any missile at the time but one that required frequent refueling.

Image
Even needs refueled immediately after takeoff due to the tank leaking before it heats up. Excellent analogy.

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hisdudeness
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hisdudeness » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:45 am

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:49 am
columbia wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:45 am
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:01 pm
oldzey wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:04 am
Continue to soar, U.S. stocks!
[large image squelched]

What would be the appropriate bird, spacecraft, or aircraft for international stocks soaring, should that ever happen?
The dodo?
Image
We have a winner and his name is JoeDough :)

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:15 pm

hisdudeness wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:45 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:49 am

Image
We have a winner and his name is JoeDough :)
How about Pork-o-Soar?
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DonIce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DonIce » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:24 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:12 am
Maybe we should use space ships or rockets?
Save the rockets for when the S&P500 is crossing 5000.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:35 pm

Fly, market fly
Fly, market fly
Fly, market fly
Up, up to the sky

Apologies to Silver Convention - Fly, Robin, Fly

Broken Man 1999

PS: That link to the list of high-flying birds was unbelievable. 37,000 feet? Wow! :shock:

I had no idea birds were capable of reaching those heights. I mean, sure, I've seen nature shows about eagles and such, but never anything comparable to these true high-flyers.
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 305pelusa » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm

The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?

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goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goodenyou » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm

Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | Do you know how to make a rain dance work? Dance until it rains.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:57 pm

305pelusa wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm
The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?
The shorts may yet win. Hey, what's the correct CAPE10 for an economy with weak inflation, tepid growth, low unemployment, wide budget deficits, a huge tech sector, and near zero interest rates? I need to know which side of the mean we are on. :happy

anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:06 pm

No recession for next 12 months according to CR.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... ecast.html

I think before we crash we have to progress from overvaluation to bubble (where there is rampant, mindless speculation by everybody). We are not there yet. If WeWork had IPO'ed successfully, we would have been closer.

Until then it's onward and upward.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:33 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:35 pm
Fly, market fly
Fly, market fly
Fly, market fly
Up, up to the sky
Higher and higher! What could go wrong? :confused

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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:44 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
Not free fall, but they will probably continue to decline.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:33 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
Not free fall, but they will probably continue to decline.
:shock: OMG! OMG! OMG! :shock:

Just like the "Taper Tantrum" in 2013! "Rates can only go up from here!"

. . . hey wait, despite all the talking heads and their crystal balls, that never happened. :confused

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:05 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
Not free fall, but they will probably continue to decline.
The experts were first saying that rates will hit 4% soon, then when they started falling they changed their tune to say rates are imminently going to hit 1%, now what is it - UP or DOWN? LOL!

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:06 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:57 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm
The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?
The shorts may yet win. Hey, what's the correct CAPE10 for an economy with weak inflation, tepid growth, low unemployment, wide budget deficits, a huge tech sector, and near zero interest rates? I need to know which side of the mean we are on. :happy
This is the euphoria before a crash. I've seen it in 1999 and 2007.

"Those who don't learn history is doomed to repeat it."

:beer :sharebeer

Not saying it's a coincidence, but the person controlling the trade war can easily manipulate the stock market with his thumbs.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:16 pm

H-Town wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:06 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:57 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm
The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?
The shorts may yet win. Hey, what's the correct CAPE10 for an economy with weak inflation, tepid growth, low unemployment, wide budget deficits, a huge tech sector, and near zero interest rates? I need to know which side of the mean we are on. :happy
This is the euphoria before a crash. I've seen it in 1999 and 2007.
Stock growth has been slow, 5.24% real annualized, since 2018, even though most of the economic fundamentals are still very solid. I've lost count of all the threads by novice investors who are scared to buy stocks right now. That doesn't sound like euphoria to me.

Yes, the market will experience another sizable downturn at some point. But I'm not seeing any evidence to indicate that it will do so in the very near future.

That being said, I sleep very well at night with my trend following strategy. A market downturn could well result in my future returns getting a nice boost.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:18 pm

Great close today:

3,039.42 +16.87 (0.56%)
Oct 28, 4:58 PM EDT

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:44 pm

Some folks just can't stand prosperity!

I embrace it with both arms. Love it, love it, love it.

If Mr. Market can remain at current levels, or maybe grow a tiny bit more, DW and I can finish all our home projects. All I need is 6 more months at the most.
- bathroom
- fence
- replace a couple of boards on deck and throw another coat of thick sealer/surface coating. Might outlast me.

Of course everything will be done no matter, but I sure like doing projects in times of plenty.

Let the good times roll.....

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:51 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:05 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
Not free fall, but they will probably continue to decline.
The experts were first saying that rates will hit 4% soon, then when they started falling they changed their tune to say rates are imminently going to hit 1%, now what is it - UP or DOWN? LOL!
As any observant fellow learns, sooner or later, interest rate predictions are no better than stock market predictions. :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:57 pm

Look at a 100 year chart, log form, adjusted for inflation. This is what, the 5th biggest expansion in a century? No big deal and plenty of room left if this is like '82 - 2000 or even '49 - '65.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jo ... ical-chart

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:15 pm

A good start to the week for U.S. stocks! :beer

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Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:21 pm

H-Town wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:06 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:57 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm
The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?
The shorts may yet win. Hey, what's the correct CAPE10 for an economy with weak inflation, tepid growth, low unemployment, wide budget deficits, a huge tech sector, and near zero interest rates? I need to know which side of the mean we are on. :happy
This is the euphoria before a crash. I've seen it in 1999 and 2007.

"Those who don't learn history is doomed to repeat it."

:beer :sharebeer

Not saying it's a coincidence, but the person controlling the trade war can easily manipulate the stock market with his thumbs.
I agree, but I don't think we're soaring quite that high.

But more importantly there's nothing I can do about it. I've just got to ride it out, no matter what.

Also, even though we know something is coming, we need to know when it will happen in order to act upon the information. The markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:50 pm

what euphoria?.. it's been nonstop pessimism in the last two years, hardly the type of sentiment you expect before a crash. My thinking is that the euphoric stage is yet to come.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:13 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:24 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:06 am

Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
This is all very pessimistic.
Not at all. That means stay the course, stick with your asset allocation and don't go chasing the flavor of the month.
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Are U.S. bonds in free fall?
Not free fall, but they will probably continue to decline.
Bonds are for income. They can't decline or increase in value if held to maturity. Only market timers risk a decline.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:44 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:13 pm
Bonds are for income. They can't decline or increase in value if held to maturity. Only market timers risk a decline.
Most are not holding individual bonds but rather bond funds which can result in a loss unfortunately even if held for the term of the fund.

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:32 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:50 pm
what euphoria?.. it's been nonstop pessimism in the last two years, hardly the type of sentiment you expect before a crash. My thinking is that the euphoric stage is yet to come.
Agreed. I invested through the dot.com rise and crash, and the GFC. I see nothing today that looks like the euphoria of the dot.com or real estate crazes. If anything it's the opposite. Many people are still fearful of the market. CEOs/CFOs are preparing for a recession, even more so than just a few months ago. This keeps the market on a slow and steady growth trend. If they all were euphoric, the market would already have risen an extra 40, 60, 80%, and then crashed and lost most or all of it. Instead we have a nice smooth ride (even if it doesn't feel that way, even if there are worries, even if rates are [legitimately, imho] low and valuations are correspondingly high.)
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:01 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:17 pm
Portfolio7 wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:47 am
I am going to jinx this by saying I could see another 8% by the end of the year (dodges rotting fruit thrown from the bleachers.)

Investing can be so painful, but also so much fun. It's like rotisserie baseball with index funds, except an average year usually means you're winning!
I look at this and think of all the wise men who started predicting 4% or 5% CAGR about 5 years ago...
yep... 15 years ago also. And it may still happen, who knows. If my planning process has taken lower returns into account, I can get those lower-than-average returns and STILL be on track. I'd love to see the 8% I predicted, but if it dives 10% or more instead, well, so be it. Mr Market does his own thing, regardless of what I would like.

Still, it's fun to watch your plan succeeding, and even more fun when it appears to be providing you with the margin of safety you'd hoped for, and the best is knowing all the setbacks overcome to get to this point.

...and to put credit where it's due, so much of the plan dependent on the foundation laid by Mr Bogle, RIP.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:35 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:16 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:06 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:57 pm
305pelusa wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:43 pm
The enthusiasm on this thread is astounding.

So are we gonna bump that one MarketTimer thread where he called the top at 2832 and went short S&P 500? Or we're not really about that any more?
The shorts may yet win. Hey, what's the correct CAPE10 for an economy with weak inflation, tepid growth, low unemployment, wide budget deficits, a huge tech sector, and near zero interest rates? I need to know which side of the mean we are on. :happy
This is the euphoria before a crash. I've seen it in 1999 and 2007.
Stock growth has been slow, 5.24% real annualized, since 2018, even though most of the economic fundamentals are still very solid. I've lost count of all the threads by novice investors who are scared to buy stocks right now. That doesn't sound like euphoria to me.

Yes, the market will experience another sizable downturn at some point. But I'm not seeing any evidence to indicate that it will do so in the very near future.

That being said, I sleep very well at night with my trend following strategy. A market downturn could well result in my future returns getting a nice boost.
+1

The media and everyone else seems to forget we were sideways for two years but fear still runs rampant and the news outlets are annoyingly blasting new highs and recession articles. I don't see any euphoria.

If I mention the stock market or investing to my non investing friends, I still get a blank stare.
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

jpdion
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jpdion » Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:39 am

Peeled next year's cash requirements off the top of Total Stock and Total Bond and put it in the money market account. Always nice to sell high. :)

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:44 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:13 pm
Bonds are for income. They can't decline or increase in value if held to maturity. Only market timers risk a decline.
Most are not holding individual bonds but rather bond funds which can result in a loss unfortunately even if held for the term of the fund.
Bond funds are self-correcting. That's why I like them.

Sure, interest rates can go up, and bond fund values can drop... But then old bonds roll off, and new bonds are purchased at the higher interest rates, and the yield goes up.

So you make the money back from the initial drop.

Likewise, if interest rates go down, bond fund values can go up... But then new bonds are bought at the lower interest rates, and the yield goes down.

Bond funds are pretty steady-eddy.

Inflation is the real danger to bonds, not interest rates.
The J stands for Jay

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:44 am

S&P at new intraday highs. Once again.

The rally continues.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 305pelusa » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:52 am

I had this exchange with stocknoob about 2 months ago:
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:43 pm
It would be a joke to call this a bull market.
I replied
305pelusa wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:43 am
What do you call a market where the index broke a record high less than a month ago?
I'm still waiting on an answer. :happy

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:29 am

Well, you don't win a prize for arguing on the internet.

When I look at S&P 500 10 year charts, nominal total return, I keep seeing basically the stocks quadrupled, just based on the statistics of the eye. It varies a little as the 10 year window moved. I went month-to-month in portfoliovisualizer and in there I was able to see that from March 2009 (the bottom) to March 2019 it was closer to quintupling than quadrupling. Final value is 4.7X in 10 years. That's amazing.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:54 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am
Bond funds are self-correcting.
When I held bonds they worked that way. My principal returned to where it started. The interest paid cancelled out the gain or loss of principal. Making more than interest on bonds requires market timing.

I got out of bonds when they became a guarantied real loss and money markets started paying to the left of the decimal point.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:01 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:54 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am
Bond funds are self-correcting.
When I held bonds they worked that way. My principal returned to where it started. The interest paid cancelled out the gain or loss of principal. Making more than interest on bonds requires market timing.

I got out of bonds when they became a guarantied real loss and money markets started paying to the left of the decimal point.
Is this only true of intermediate & short bonds? Because Simba's backtesting spreadsheet shows losses for long bonds over some periods.

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by columbia » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:13 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:54 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am
Bond funds are self-correcting.
When I held bonds they worked that way. My principal returned to where it started. The interest paid cancelled out the gain or loss of principal. Making more than interest on bonds requires market timing.

I got out of bonds when they became a guarantied real loss and money markets started paying to the left of the decimal point.
Would you shift back to bonds, if the yields reached a certain spread over money market? At what difference in yield?

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:20 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:01 pm
Is this only true of intermediate & short bonds? Because Simba's backtesting spreadsheet shows losses for long bonds over some periods.
That is only if one sells today. What happens if one never sells?
columbia wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:13 pm
Would you shift back to bonds, if the yields reached a certain spread over money market? At what difference in yield?
Probably not; I don't need or want income. I do like my "cash" to give me at least a real 0% though, so maybe.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:23 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:01 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:54 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am
Bond funds are self-correcting.
When I held bonds they worked that way. My principal returned to where it started. The interest paid cancelled out the gain or loss of principal. Making more than interest on bonds requires market timing.

I got out of bonds when they became a guarantied real loss and money markets started paying to the left of the decimal point.
Is this only true of intermediate & short bonds? Because Simba's backtesting spreadsheet shows losses for long bonds over some periods.
I've had bond funds for over 20 years, and am now holding about 70% in bonds and CDs. I'm letting my CD ladder run out, which will happen next March and the proceeds will go back into bond funds.

Long bonds, especially Treasurys, can be very volatile, usually in the opposite direction of stocks (although not this year). One of my funds, TLH iShares 10-20 year Treasurys, is up 11.38% YTD.

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:00 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:01 pm
Is this only true of intermediate & short bonds? Because Simba's backtesting spreadsheet shows losses for long bonds over some periods.
That is only if one sells today. What happens if one never sells?
columbia wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:13 pm
Would you shift back to bonds, if the yields reached a certain spread over money market? At what difference in yield?
Probably not; I don't need or want income. I do like my "cash" to give me at least a real 0% though, so maybe.
Uh, well, then your heirs get your retirement funds. But I'm not sure that's necessarily the goal of saving for retirement.

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:20 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:13 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:24 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:06 am

Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
This is all very pessimistic.
Not at all. That means stay the course, stick with your asset allocation and don't go chasing the flavor of the month.
I know. My comment was directed at the picture of the flying pig balloon above your quote as a representation of this “soaring” thread. I thought that if the pig was to be slaughtered, then the soaring would end badly. Sometimes my sense of humor is lost on everyone except for me. :happy I think I was over thinking the flying pig.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SevenBridgesRoad » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:31 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:20 pm

I know. My comment was directed at the picture of the flying pig balloon above your quote as a representation of this “soaring” thread. I thought that if the pig was to be slaughtered, then the soaring would end badly. Sometimes my sense of humor is lost on everyone except for me. :happy I think I was over thinking the flying pig.
All in all... When I saw the flying pig balloon, I immediately flashed back to Pink Floyd.
Retired 2018 age 61 | "Not using an alarm is one of the great glories of my life." Robert Greene

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:43 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:00 pm

Uh, well, then your heirs get your retirement funds. But I'm not sure that's necessarily the goal of saving for retirement.
I'm retired and have enough annuity income to buy VTI every month. Don't hate me just because I'm a "boomer".
GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:20 pm
I think I was over thinking the flying pig.
Maybe not. It could mean we who buy and hold US stocks are pigs. Not pigs, just bulls on a run. :moneybag

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:43 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:00 pm

Uh, well, then your heirs get your retirement funds. But I'm not sure that's necessarily the goal of saving for retirement.
I'm retired and have enough annuity income to buy VTI every month. Don't hate me just because I'm a "boomer".
My point was that your particular situation is not the situation all or most of us are in. I plan to live off my retirement savings, which means I have to sell eventually.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:14 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:10 am
Bond funds are self-correcting. That's why I like them.
This looks good on paper but the correction is usually slow and you may not recoup losses within the term of the bond. For example, I bought some bonds in Jan 2018 at 2.7% yield and a term of 6 years.

Since the interest rates plummeted the NAV has skyrocketed which is all good. However, now the yield has drastically dropped. Technically the rise in NAV (Term x amount of rise in NAV) should compensate me for the drop in yield to keep my end result the same (final amount at the end of my term per the original yield).

But say I collect the low yield for the next 3 years, so 5 years have elapsed. In the 5th year the interest rates rise dramatically to 4% and the NAV plummets. Now, I lost money since I have been collecting the low yield but don't even have the NAV to compensate me even though the term is almost up (6 years). This would never happen with an individual bond since I will always get the par value back on the maturity date. With a bond fund you are essentially screwed with the perpetual movement of interest rates.

Another terrible aspect about buying a bond fund today is that you are locking in negative real yields... why does anyone today want to lose money and take risk doing it on top of it, even if it's a marginal risk? I don't understand it. There is little hope at the moment that interest rates will rise to a level to give a decent real return, at least I am not optimistic that is going to happen any time soon.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:41 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
My point was that your particular situation is not the situation all or most of us are in.
Most aren't in the 51% marginal tax bracket like I am*. None of us are in the exact same situation. That is why the three fund portfolio is a good starting point but it needs adjustments for each individual.

*Social Security “Hump” and the new tax rates???

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:58 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:41 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
My point was that your particular situation is not the situation all or most of us are in.
Most aren't in the 51% marginal tax bracket like I am*. None of us are in the exact same situation. That is why the three fund portfolio is a good starting point but it needs adjustments for each individual.

*Social Security “Hump” and the new tax rates???
Hmm... well that's a pickle.

Also, you don't have any trad accounts? Because RMD's would also require one to sell; although I grant you that you can just funnel the after tax money right back into the same positions.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:23 am

nice piece by The Compound on forecast for Q4...

https://youtu.be/KVMTdMbuZ8I

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