U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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jpdion
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jpdion » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:07 am

Staying the course . . . but skimming a bit off the current high in VTSAX for a vacation.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:21 am

The bulletproof bull!
Unstoppable!!!!!

DrivingFun
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DrivingFun » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year. Assuming that this is the case (lets not argue about this part), there is probably more downsides to bonds for a while. Am I wrong? For example Intermediate Term Exempt is somewhere around 2.4% yield right now. Ally is paying 1.8% on savings accounts. If we do get those 4 hikes, Ally will probably be somewhere around 2.5-2.8% or more by this time next year. It makes sense that the yield on my bond fund will have to significantly rise to compete, which guarantees price drop. Wouldn't it make sense (at least in taxable) to wait out the interest rate hikes in savings accounts or CDs, then go back into bonds?

I'm far from an expert on these matters, so please educate me if I'm completely wrong.

goblue100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goblue100 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:20 am

DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year. Assuming that this is the case (lets not argue about this part), there is probably more downsides to bonds for a while. Am I wrong? For example Intermediate Term Exempt is somewhere around 2.4% yield right now. Ally is paying 1.8% on savings accounts. If we do get those 4 hikes, Ally will probably be somewhere around 2.5-2.8% or more by this time next year. It makes sense that the yield on my bond fund will have to significantly rise to compete, which guarantees price drop. Wouldn't it make sense (at least in taxable) to wait out the interest rate hikes in savings accounts or CDs, then go back into bonds?
Sometimes expected rate hikes don't occur, though I do believe absent a major shock of some sort that shouldn't be the case this time. The extra yield will eventually make up the loss in principal, probably in a shorter time than you think. I've been dollar cost averaging into bonds the same as I would into equities. I'm older and getting close to retirement, and need the portfolio stability.
DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
I'm far from an expert on these matters, so please educate me if I'm completely wrong.
Makes two of us, just my humble opinion.
Can't take it with you when you're gone | But I want enough to get there on - Rollin with the flow - Jerry Hayes

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am

Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave.
100% stock. I was invested in 2008 and am prepared to lose 50% just like I did in 2008. But I suppose I would still be considered young and have only been a forum member for a couple years now.

I don't want to get all "this time it's different" with bonds, but feel honestly that my generation won't have the same Bond bull market a lot of older people did. Just like a college degree for us wasn't an automatic path to success, we couldn't afford college on our part time jobs, and we won't be able to rely on our pensions with even social security looking like it might take a 25% haircut. Some things do change. I do plan to get into bonds when I am older. If I had a parent as well off as a lot of the posters on here I might think differently, but the "new normal" is a growing income gap where many my age will have to work as long as we can stay healthy and can't afford the plattitudes of boomers or even older Xers.
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
A fool and his money are good for business.

2015
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 2015 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:31 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:46 am
I was feeling cocky myself thinking stocks will surely be much higher given my timeline so why bother rebalancing right now when I came across this:

The Worst Bear Market That Nobody Ever Talks About
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/0 ... lks-about/

From 1965 to 1982 (17 years), stocks basically gained a sum total of 0.19% with large gyrations in between. Bonds meanwhile returned about 1.3% annually.
I came of age during this era, and I remember it vividly. High inflation, high interest rates, gas prices soaring, growing unemployment, large mining and manufacturing operations closing (usually permanently), small businesses failing. This was when the Rust Belt started rusting.
Thanks for posting. My favorite paragraph:
There are many lessons to be learned from this period but the main takeaway is that stocks can suck for a long, long time. Thinking that you’re mentally prepared for this type of environment is not enough. You must have a portfolio that truly matches your risk tolerance- not your risk tolerance today near all-time highs, but your actual risk tolerance. A properly constructed portfolio- one you can stick with through thick and thin, is what separates investors who can take advantage of cheap stocks versus those who get burned and never return.
I for one never forgot about this period. It's why I'm using LMP.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:36 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:49 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave.
Those periods were several years ago, so I can understand people forgetting them with such an amazing bull run since, or, as you say, perhaps they weren't invested during those times. But, there's no denying some of the shocked reactions on this board during the unexpected, albeit small, 10% correction last February when the market was surging based on the new corporate tax plan and a strong forecast for 2018. The correction has now been erased, but if 10% sent shockwaves through your system, some people might want to consider rebalancing sooner than later. Here's hoping 2018 continues to be a strong year for stocks, but you're likely taking far too much risk if you can't handle a few dips along the way.
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
For rebalancing, I consider bonds on sale.
Yes, it is telling if a 10% correction, which is perfectly normal, freaks some people out. What might be happening is that we are in shorter supply of pessimists that could change their mind and become optimists. If so, this is not a good sign for the markets. A good dose of pessimism helps keep bull markets going. On the other hand, I don't see euphoria out there either. No discussion of a new paridigm.

Interest rates have risen but mostly at the short end of the yield curve. Intermediate rates and long rates are up but not by nearly as much as short rates. By historical standards, interest rates are still rather low. Bonds are certainly cheaper than they were but I wouldn't say that they are on sale.

My guess is that stocks are not as expensive as they look here and that bonds are still not a bargain here.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nisiprius » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:37 am

At last, we have finally found the secret of wealth without work. As John Jakob Raskob said, "Everybody ought to be rich." He said that in September, 1929.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

MichCPA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MichCPA » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:38 am

DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year.
If the rate hikes are 'consensus' aren't they already priced in and we won't see a future drop due to interest rates unless they are increased MORE than currently expected? Also, I would argue that bonds are significantly more attractive now than in January. You have higher yield and interest rates closer to the historical average implies less future headwind (esp if we have 4 rate hikes priced in). If you thought bonds were a good idea in January, they should be a good idea now.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:41 am

DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year. Assuming that this is the case (lets not argue about this part), there is probably more downsides to bonds for a while. Am I wrong? For example Intermediate Term Exempt is somewhere around 2.4% yield right now. Ally is paying 1.8% on savings accounts. If we do get those 4 hikes, Ally will probably be somewhere around 2.5-2.8% or more by this time next year. It makes sense that the yield on my bond fund will have to significantly rise to compete, which guarantees price drop. Wouldn't it make sense (at least in taxable) to wait out the interest rate hikes in savings accounts or CDs, then go back into bonds?

I'm far from an expert on these matters, so please educate me if I'm completely wrong.
No you are not wrong. It is just that we don't know how long and intermediate interest rates will react. There is such a thing as a flattening of the yield curve. Indeed, an inverted yield curve where short rates are higher than long rates is considered a signal for recession. The yield curve has flattened a bit but too early to make economic predictions on that. Inflation has ticked up a bit but is still fairly well behaved.

It is pretty unusual for bonds to be down two years in a row, which suggests that bonds will be in positive territory in 2019. But then again, we don't know. The crystal ball is cloudy.
A fool and his money are good for business.

protagonist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by protagonist » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:42 am

MichCPA wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:38 am
DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year.
If you thought bonds were a good idea in January, they should be a good idea now.

I agree. And if you thought they were a bad idea in January, they are still a bad idea now.
The crystal ball is indeed cloudy, but not completely black. Interest rates have descended from an all-time high to an all-time low in the past 30-40 years. To "guess" that there is a better than 50% chance that they will rise in the coming decade or two is not at all unreasonable.
And if the chance is closer to 55%, then you may be better off playing blackjack in a casino. At least you will get free drinks.
We all have different ideas about this.
Last edited by protagonist on Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am

feel like year 2000 again.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:52 am

MichCPA wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:38 am
DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:35 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year.
If the rate hikes are 'consensus' aren't they already priced in and we won't see a future drop due to interest rates unless they are increased MORE than currently expected? Also, I would argue that bonds are significantly more attractive now than in January. You have higher yield and interest rates closer to the historical average implies less future headwind (esp if we have 4 rate hikes priced in). If you thought bonds were a good idea in January, they should be a good idea now.
Yes, expectations are already priced into the bond market. I remember back in 1988 or so when I purchased three zero coupon US Treasuries with an interest rate of 8%. If I remember right, they were ten year bonds. I should have backed up the truck with those but my funds were limited in those days. Hard for me to say that bonds are cheap here. Last I looked the 30 year US Treasury bond was just below 3% yield. Huge gap between 8% for 10 year treasuries in 1988 and 3% for 30 year treasuries today.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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alpine_boglehead
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by alpine_boglehead » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:24 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
Agreed. There's no hoard of investors chasing any company with .com in the name. No startups with 3 developer CEOs, 6 executive assistants and 9 Tesla model 3s :)

I think the absurdity of the tech bubble becomes clear when you compare the PE ratios with the interest rates.

2000: S&P 500 PE at 29, implied return 3.4%, 10-year treasuries: 6.5%
2018: S&P 500 PE at 25, implied return 4%, 10-year treasuries: 2.8%

(PE source, treasury source)

Valuations were high, but against that interest rate backdrop ... :oops: We'd need to have 7%-ish rates today to compare with 2000.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
I just saw a link to a news story titled "Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000."

Chilling. :shock:

Might be time to put in a buy for toilet paper and bottled water futures.

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:42 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
i posted the return from 95-99 earlier in this thread. we aren't anywhere close to that.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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randomizer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by randomizer » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:51 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm
No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
I would like the irrational exuberance to keep on going for just a while longer.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

gluskap
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gluskap » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:03 pm

US stocks continue to soar - NW goes up YAY!
US stocks in freefall - sale on stocks YAY!

Either way I'm happy.

Darth Xanadu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Darth Xanadu » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:04 pm

MJW wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
I just saw a link to a news story titled "Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000."

Chilling. :shock:

Might be time to put in a buy for toilet paper and bottled water futures.
Toilet paper futures ... now that could be a disgusting return indeed.
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:12 pm

I dialed down % in equity a bit but certainly not out off the market yet.

DrivingFun
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DrivingFun » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:14 pm

MichCPA wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:38 am

If the rate hikes are 'consensus' aren't they already priced in and we won't see a future drop due to interest rates unless they are increased MORE than currently expected?
I guess this is where I need to be educated. Does increase in yield guarantee decrease in price? If so, then we're currently pricing in the fact that short term rates will be higher than intermediate term rates. So lets say a year from now as I previously mentioned we're 2.8% on high yield savings accounts and still 2.4% on the intermediate term exempt, after tax that's basically a wash. Obviously not a great look for the bond fund. If the yield today doesn't reflect the "expectation", then my understanding the price is guaranteed to fall to accommodate that. Which is again not a great look for the bond fund.

The 1-Year return on VWIUX is 0.64% and YTD is -0.04%. I guess other than the unexpected case of halt to rising short term rates, in what case would it make sense to stick it out with the bond fund? I'm personally leaning toward waiting out these rate hikes in a high yield savings account. It seems to me that the risk sticking it out with VWIUX, is higher than the risk of losing out on some yield by parking the money in a high yield savings account. Obviously there is some element of timing when to get back in, but since the expectation of rate hikes is somewhat more forward and public it's a little different than trying to call a top or bottom of the market, etc.

Again I'm far from knowledgeable in this area, so I'm all ears.
Last edited by DrivingFun on Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CULater » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:40 pm

OH NO! The "Freefall" thread marked the bottom of the market and the start of the Eternal Bull. Now I suppose that we'll look back at the "U.S. stocks continue to soar" thread as marking the top and the start of the Eternal Bear. Hide the Women and Children!!
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:02 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm

I just saw a link to a news story titled "Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000."

Chilling. :shock:

Might be time to put in a buy for toilet paper and bottled water futures.
Toilet paper futures ... now that could be a disgusting return indeed.
I just take what the market gives...

MichCPA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MichCPA » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:27 pm

DrivingFun wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:14 pm
MichCPA wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:38 am

If the rate hikes are 'consensus' aren't they already priced in and we won't see a future drop due to interest rates unless they are increased MORE than currently expected?
I guess this is where I need to be educated. Does increase in yield guarantee decrease in price? If so, then we're currently pricing in the fact that short term rates will be higher than intermediate term rates. So lets say a year from now as I previously mentioned we're 2.8% on high yield savings accounts and still 2.4% on the intermediate term exempt, after tax that's basically a wash. Obviously not a great look for the bond fund. If the yield today doesn't reflect the "expectation", then my understanding the price is guaranteed to fall to accommodate that. Which is again not a great look for the bond fund.

The 1-Year return on VWIUX is 0.64% and YTD is -0.04%. I guess other than the unexpected case of halt to rising short term rates, in what case would it make sense to stick it out with the bond fund? I'm personally leaning toward waiting out these rate hikes in a high yield savings account. It seems to me that the risk sticking it out with VWIUX, is higher than the risk of losing out on some yield by parking the money in a high yield savings account. Obviously there is some element of timing when to get back in, but since the expectation of rate hikes is somewhat more forward and public it's a little different than trying to call a top or bottom of the market, etc.

Again I'm far from knowledgeable in this area, so I'm all ears.
A couple of things going on here. First, its generally true that prices will decrease as rates increase. This is because if you are five years into a ten year bond and that bond has a lower rate than a current five year bond so the market pays less for the old bond. Second, I don't think a comparison of a savings account which is ultra-short term and riskless can be compared to intermediate term muni bonds because of

1) some added credit risk because of the loss of FDIC insurance
2) the different tax treatment of exempt bonds. This varies from person to person based on tax rate. It makes accurate comparisons much more complicated. Its theoretically possible that if a tax increase was scheduled in the future and priced in by the market that a yield curve on an exempt security might be affected by taxes rates, not just interest rates.
3) term risk, an intermediate bond requires locking in rates for 5 to 10 years
4) Some munis are callable

You need to isolate interest rate from other characteristics of fixed income (credit risk, term risk, redemption risk) for a fair comparison. That is why when people refer to the 'yield curve' they generally mean the US Treasury yield curve. Also a .67 rise in 1 month rates this year has led to a .43 increase in the 7 yr (rough avg intermediate term). Given that, I don't rule out inversion with a 1% increase, but it isn't a guarantee either. You might consider exploring shorter maturities if you want less interest rate sensitivity.

Crisium
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Crisium » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:34 pm

Now we need a thread for ~0.0% change days.

U.S. stocks maintain the status quo!

MichCPA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MichCPA » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:36 pm

Crisium wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:34 pm
Now we need a thread for ~0.0% change days.

U.S. stocks maintain the status quo!
The more things change, the more they stay the same! :wink:

invstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by invstar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:38 pm

:thumbsup
gluskap wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:03 pm
US stocks continue to soar - NW goes up YAY!
US stocks in freefall - sale on stocks YAY!

Either way I'm happy.

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CaliJim
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CaliJim » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:48 pm

finite_difference wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:32 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am
CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
Yes, and so do you. COBOL is still a supported and actively maintained compiler.

So since there’s a free compiler and a new shiny 1989:2014 version there’s no excuse! ;)
Ooooh. I'll get on it tomorrow. 8-)
-calijim- | | For more info, click this Wiki

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm

MJW wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
I just saw a link to a news story titled "Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000."

Chilling. :shock:

Might be time to put in a buy for toilet paper and bottled water futures.
Keep in mind that stocks fell from 2000-2002, and there was a recession in 2001. Things were starting to look good just when the financial crisis hit. And it has taken a while for the economy to fully recover from that blow. While the current bull market in stocks is not as long as the pundits report it (it's only two years old), the recovery since 2009 has been referred to as the 'most unloved bull market ever'. So I'm not worried about consumer confidence being high. Most all of the fundamental indicators are very solid right now, and the supposedly 'pricey' stock market reflects that.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

SchruteB&B
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SchruteB&B » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:03 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
Agreed. Everyone was so cocky and over the top in 1999. I remember it was surprising to find someone who wasn't day trading.

mega317
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mega317 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:10 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm
the recovery since 2009 has been referred to as the 'most unloved bull market ever'.
Why?

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:31 pm

mega317 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:10 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm
the recovery since 2009 has been referred to as the 'most unloved bull market ever'.
Why?
Don't ask me. But it has been referred to that way. Perhaps because, as Nedsaid recently pointed out, bull markets thrive off pessimists being slowly converted into optimists.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:42 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:31 pm
mega317 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:10 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm
the recovery since 2009 has been referred to as the 'most unloved bull market ever'.
Why?
Don't ask me. But it has been referred to that way. Perhaps because, as Nedsaid recently pointed out, bull markets thrive off pessimists being slowly converted into optimists.
It was because everyone was still shell shocked and expected a repeat 2008 or 9. Even my husband said yesterday that what goes up must come down. I said the stock market is not an apple so gravitational laws don’t apply.

Esq123
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Esq123 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:46 pm

What goes up.....

Seriously, stop talking about it. Don't jinx it please.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Esq123 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:59 pm

gluskap wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:03 pm
US stocks continue to soar - NW goes up YAY!
US stocks in freefall - sale on stocks YAY!

Either way I'm happy.
+1

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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:04 pm

It looks like the S&P 500 hit another new high today. Surprised that in a thread on soaring stocks, that hasn't been mentioned yet! (not REALLY surprised) :mrgreen:
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by roymeo » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:05 pm

The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:15 pm

SchruteB&B wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:03 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
Agreed. Everyone was so cocky and over the top in 1999. I remember it was surprising to find someone who wasn't day trading.
Well, we had a family member take up day trading. A fellow employee traded her workplace savings plan during her lunch hour. I remember 1999 pretty well.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:18 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:04 pm
It looks like the S&P 500 hit another new high today. Surprised that in a thread on soaring stocks, that hasn't been mentioned yet! (not REALLY surprised) :mrgreen:
Just out of a meeting seeing how the trading day went and yes - YET ANOTHER HIGH!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:31 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm
MJW wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm

I just saw a link to a news story titled "Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000."

Chilling. :shock:

Might be time to put in a buy for toilet paper and bottled water futures.
Keep in mind that stocks fell from 2000-2002, and there was a recession in 2001. Things were starting to look good just when the financial crisis hit. And it has taken a while for the economy to fully recover from that blow. While the current bull market in stocks is not as long as the pundits report it (it's only two years old), the recovery since 2009 has been referred to as the 'most unloved bull market ever'. So I'm not worried about consumer confidence being high. Most all of the fundamental indicators are very solid right now, and the supposedly 'pricey' stock market reflects that.
I was mainly just playing off of the date referenced (2000) since we know what followed shortly after. It was mostly meant tongue-in-cheek. Mostly.

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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:46 pm

GoldStar wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:18 pm
FIREchief wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:04 pm
It looks like the S&P 500 hit another new high today. Surprised that in a thread on soaring stocks, that hasn't been mentioned yet! (not REALLY surprised) :mrgreen:
Just out of a meeting seeing how the trading day went and yes - YET ANOTHER HIGH!
"Some people" sneak a peak at the market on their smart phones DURING a meeting. 8-)

"It's alright boss, I'm just multi-tasking....."
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by flyingaway » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm

Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:22 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm
Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.
I was going to rebalance today but chose not to. Maybe tomorrow.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:30 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm
Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.
You sold from a soaring market like this? Whaaaaaaaaat???

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by flyingaway » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:41 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:30 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm
Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.
You sold from a soaring market like this? Whaaaaaaaaat???
Most people do not want to sell in an uprising market, and are unable to buy into a going down market. I just think I have won the game and it is more important to keep some gains.

flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by flyingaway » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:42 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:30 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm
Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.
You sold from a soaring market like this? Whaaaaaaaaat???
My 2nd rebalance this month, last week I did about $200,000 rebalance into bonds. Trying to build my bond tent.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jclear » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:11 pm

MichCPA wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:36 pm
Crisium wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:34 pm
Now we need a thread for ~0.0% change days.

U.S. stocks maintain the status quo!
The more things change, the more they stay the same! :wink:
Vanguard Rolls Out New ”Steady Rudder Index Fund”
Meanwhile, water cooler talk is all about Tether. Is it too late to get in?

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:19 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:42 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:30 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:14 pm
Moved about $50,000 total stock market index to total bond index today.
You sold from a soaring market like this? Whaaaaaaaaat???
My 2nd rebalance this month, last week I did about $200,000 rebalance into bonds. Trying to build my bond tent.
Sorry. I should have been more clear that my comments were intended to be humorous rather than serious.

No issue at all with your actions; I have done similar in recent months.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:33 pm

lostdog wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:15 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am
CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
I took a semester of COBOL in college. 1997.
http://dilbert.com/strip/1994-06-10

I tested out of Fortran in college.

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