U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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GoldStar
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U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:09 pm

Why do people keep updating the "free fall" thread with the market at all time highs AGAIN!
More of us are becoming millionaires everyday.
I continue to adjust my AA - moving stocks to bonds - but it appears there is no stopping this Bull!

(Opening this thread hoping it doesn't get shut down after this discussion:
FIREchief wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:13 pm
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:58 pm
Why are folks updating this thread?
Perhaps someone can start a new thread that's titled "U.S. stocks still flying"....then I can know how well the market is doing to see which thread is being updated. :D
Well "somebody" (perhaps Goldstar?) could create a new thread, but I'll bet a buck that this thread will continue to thrive until locked!
)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm

No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm

On the bright side, we could start a contest to guess how many posts are allowed here before it gets locked!
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Atomic
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Atomic » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:16 pm

S&P 2896.74.
Twenty years from now, as i start drawing to fund retirement, I wonder if i will regret this biweekly purchase of stocks.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:26 pm

Can't we just close both threads and start a "nedsaid effect" thread, where he posts a running log of his upcoming investing activities so the rest of us can do the opposite? It would be a lot more actionable.

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm
No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
Meh - no need to be superstitious :)
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!

260chrisb
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 260chrisb » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:37 pm

The "US stocks in a freefall" is at 6790 posts. I don't understand?

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:41 pm

GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm
No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
Meh - no need to be superstitious :)
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!
I like having fun with this. Actually the "stocks in freefall" thread was a pretty good contrary indicator for a while. When the markets corrected from August 2015 through February 2016, the contrary indicator stopped working but then regained its magic touch afterwards. The thread would pop up and the markets would rally. Fun to think about but I highly doubt that hedge funds are placing bets based upon a thread on the Bogleheads Forum. But you never know, Cliff Asness has been known to prowl this forum. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:43 pm

Atomic wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:16 pm
S&P 2896.74.
Twenty years from now, as i start drawing to fund retirement, I wonder if i will regret this biweekly purchase of stocks.
My bet is that in 20 years you will be very happy and thank your younger self for staying the course!

I really like the free fall thread. I did notice a while back that frequent free fall poster Uncle Pennybags mysteriously disappeared.

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:45 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:41 pm
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm
No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
Meh - no need to be superstitious :)
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!
I like having fun with this. Actually the "stocks in freefall" thread was a pretty good contrary indicator for a while. When the markets corrected from August 2015 through February 2016, the contrary indicator stopped working but then regained its magic touch afterwards. The thread would pop up and the markets would rally. Fun to think about but I highly doubt that hedge funds are placing bets based upon a thread on the Bogleheads Forum. But you never know, Cliff Asness has been known to prowl this forum. :wink:
I haven't been here long enough to notice a contrary indicator between that thread and the market but I am happy to take blame, but will assume no financial responsibility, should the market crash tomorrow :)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:47 pm

GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:45 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:41 pm
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:13 pm
No, no, no, no. The last thing we need right now is more market optimism. I better rebalance my portfolio as soon as possible as a correction is nigh. Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed
Meh - no need to be superstitious :)
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!
I like having fun with this. Actually the "stocks in freefall" thread was a pretty good contrary indicator for a while. When the markets corrected from August 2015 through February 2016, the contrary indicator stopped working but then regained its magic touch afterwards. The thread would pop up and the markets would rally. Fun to think about but I highly doubt that hedge funds are placing bets based upon a thread on the Bogleheads Forum. But you never know, Cliff Asness has been known to prowl this forum. :wink:
I haven't been here long enough to notice a contrary indicator between that thread and the market but I am happy to take blame, but will assume no financial responsibility, should the market crash tomorrow :)
I am quite certain now that Cliff Asness and the good folks at AQR have a big short on the market after seeing this thread. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:14 pm

My buck is safely in my wallet!!! :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by roymeo » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:17 pm

GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!
I would have been far better off only buying the winners, too!
(cept I wouldn't sleep at night)
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:28 pm

roymeo wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:17 pm
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:34 pm
I sometimes wonder why I've spent the last 9 years rebalancing - I would have been far better off if I had just let the equities ride all these years!
I would have been far better off only buying the winners, too!
(cept I wouldn't sleep at night)
I gave up holding individual stocks in the late 90s. One of my bigger holdings back then was Amazon. If only I had held that one :) (of course there were several others I am glad I dumped).

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:36 pm

For those who keep score: "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" has 6,792 posts and "U.S. stocks continue to soar" has 15. I would say that "stocks continue to soar" has a long ways to go.


Edit: We are up to 16 now. :wink:
Last edited by nedsaid on Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:40 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:36 pm
For those who keep score: "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" has 6,792 posts and "U.S. stocks continue to soar" has 15. I would say that "stocks continue to soar" has a long ways to go.
Well Freefall did have a bit of a headstart ;)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:56 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:26 pm
Can't we just close both threads and start a "nedsaid effect" thread, where he posts a running log of his upcoming investing activities so the rest of us can do the opposite? It would be a lot more actionable.
Well, actually I am planning another round of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds in the next few days, that is if the markets keep rallying. I guess that is a "buy" indicator on the US Stock Market.

Actually I do have a running thread that does what you describe above. I update it every quarter or so.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CaliJim » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:36 pm
For those who keep score: "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" has 6,792 posts and "U.S. stocks continue to soar" has 15. I would say that "stocks continue to soar" has a long ways to go.


Edit: We are up to 16 now. :wink:
We need an update frequency chart.

Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
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sambb
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sambb » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:11 pm

might be a good time to rebalance off the table to a lower stock allocation slightly, but who knows

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:12 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:36 pm
For those who keep score: "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" has 6,792 posts and "U.S. stocks continue to soar" has 15. I would say that "stocks continue to soar" has a long ways to go.


Edit: We are up to 16 now. :wink:
Dead cat bounce.

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Deleted
Last edited by Nicolas on Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by reimann » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:18 pm

I rebalanced today. Increased my bond holdings from 6% to 7.5%.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mega317 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:35 pm

I don't think this thread will have the same juice. First of all stocks going up don't generate the same emotions due to loss aversion. Second, there aren't really reverse crashes where stocks go up 50% rapidly.

Perhaps the counterpart to people worrying about and losing their jobs during a crash would be people worrying about having to work more because all of their colleagues are retiring. See?, not the same emotion.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:29 am

So in a coming bear market, is this the thread we will ironically update about our misguided optimism ? ;)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:34 am

JoMoney wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:29 am
So in a coming bear market, is this the thread we will ironically update about our misguided optimism ? ;)
No. It's the tread that we'll post "smart-alecky" posts in to commiserate during those awful "crashes" of more than one percent in a SINGLE trading day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:39 am

Since stock market losses are a thing of the past, should I go 100% stock or 500% stock?

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sabtastic » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:42 am

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:39 am
Since stock market losses are a thing of the past, should I go 100% stock or 500% stock?
500. Leverage, baby, Leverage!!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by youdiditr2 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am

this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:14 am

youdiditr2 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am
this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!
As opposed to tracking since the times someone called a "top" because of a 100% equities thread multiple times over the past six or seven years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:22 am

youdiditr2 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am
this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!
Top isn't until 2020. Trust me. Better put away this crystal ball.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am

Despite my best efforts to "kill" the thread and have some fun with it, this thread does seem to be picking up steam. All kidding aside, I would not try market timing with Boglehead threads though I have had fun talking about it. It does however, give you some idea of sentiment.

When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave.

I also am amused when other threads pop up that we should not invest internationally. I remember back 11 years or so when foreign stocks outperformed the US and were a must have asset class. Don't worry, international investing will be back in style someday.

Factors seem to have died during the era of Large Cap Growth, and I suspect this will end too. Value will be back along with other factors. What is old will be new again. Right now, Taylor Larimore and the 3 fund portfolio reigns supreme and factors are in the dustbin, but I predict that will change too.

Amazing that someone who bought dividend stocks now wants to sell. Another thread was about somebody who bought Vanguard Dividend Growth fund as wants to sell that as well. I guess people didn't listen to my warnings not to chase yield, bond yield and dividend yield, during the period of very slow economic growth and very low interest rates. Now the folks who jumped on the dividend bandwagon want to jump off. This tells me that perhaps a higher dividend strategy/lower volatility strategy might start working again.

There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.

What I am saying is don't fall victim to recency bias. This unfortunately happens even on Bogleheads and I am citing abundant evidence of that.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SGM » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:51 am

When asked what will happen to the market I am reminded of J.P. Morgan's intelligent answer to the same question. "It will fluctuate".

BHs are good for some laughs now and then. :D

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:51 am

Nicolas wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:18 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:43 pm
I really like the free fall thread. I did notice a while back that frequent free fall poster Uncle Pennybags mysteriously disappeared.
I bet he's on a desert island somewhere with The Munchkin Man!
If that’s the case, I hope it’s a dessert island.



(Sorry. I couldn’t not write it.)

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Psyayeayeduck
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:01 am

And thanks for confirming my move to re-balance my allocation to take in more bonds a week ago. Everything is rosy and pretty...until it isn't.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by InvestingGeek » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:42 am

I was feeling cocky myself thinking stocks will surely be much higher given my timeline so why bother rebalancing right now when I came across this:

The Worst Bear Market That Nobody Ever Talks About
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/0 ... lks-about/

From 1965 to 1982 (17 years), stocks basically gained a sum total of 0.19% with large gyrations in between. Bonds meanwhile returned about 1.3% annually.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tennisplyr » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:51 am

Your thoughts become your life....continue the optimism :!:
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goblue100 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:52 am

Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:01 am
And thanks for confirming my move to re-balance my allocation to take in more bonds a week ago. Everything is rosy and pretty...until it isn't.
After reading the threads about no more international and no more bonds on the forum recently, I feel like growing a beard and holding up a sign that says "The End is Near". Since my crystal ball doesn't work that well, I'll continue to own international, bonds and stocks. According to my personal investment and retirement plan. I do like what the US equity market is giving us, however.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am

CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:20 am

Are all your friends trading stock tips?

Do you hear a lot of people discussing stocks in public?

I don’t think we have entered the irrational exuberance stage, and strong earnings have made stocks less expensive. Of course that doesn’t mean a crash is not around the corner — especially since this thread popped up!
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goblue100 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:26 am

finite_difference wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:20 am
Are all your friends trading stock tips?

Do you hear a lot of people discussing stocks in public?
Actually, I have a couple of guys at work that have started talking about their trades and why they can't lose buying Netflix and Amazon. Makes me shudder. Not quite as bad as 1999 when all I heard going down the hall was 401k trade discussion.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MichCPA » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:30 am

Glad somebody else jinxed it.

The first rule of stock rallies is like the first rule of fight club. /s :wink:

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:32 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am
CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
Yes, and so do you. COBOL is still a supported and actively maintained compiler.

So since there’s a free compiler and a new shiny 1989:2014 version there’s no excuse! ;)
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:41 am

just checked the total returns of the SP500 from 95-99. $10k would have grown to $35k in that short period.

no rolling 5 year period from 2008 onward comes even close to that.

as a 33 year old, i hope i get to live through a bull market like that...
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jhfenton » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:44 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am
CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
My employer may still have a legacy system somewhere that runs COBOL, and if so we probably pay someone a healthy sum to maintain it. :moneybag

I must be old too. I studied COBOL in high school in the mid-to-late-80's along with FORTRAN and RPG. GM had an assembly plant in our town, and at some point they had donated a DEC PDP-11 to the high school. (I don't know which model.) We had a room of video terminals and a small cool room with the computer and a teletype terminal. There was an old punch card machine too, but it was a joke even then.

But I never used those languages outside of high school. On my own time in high school, I coded in Pascal. In college, I used LISP and C. In recent years, I've learned Objective C and Swift, but I have yet to actually write my world-changing app. :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:46 am

I was feeling cocky myself thinking stocks will surely be much higher given my timeline so why bother rebalancing right now when I came across this:

The Worst Bear Market That Nobody Ever Talks About
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/0 ... lks-about/

From 1965 to 1982 (17 years), stocks basically gained a sum total of 0.19% with large gyrations in between. Bonds meanwhile returned about 1.3% annually.
I came of age during this era, and I remember it vividly. High inflation, high interest rates, gas prices soaring, growing unemployment, large mining and manufacturing operations closing (usually permanently), small businesses failing. This was when the Rust Belt started rusting.

lostdog
Posts: 1293
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:15 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:03 am
CaliJim wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Anyone have the scripting chops to pull dates of posts from these two threads and update a speadsheet?

I don't think I can do it in COBOL 74 or 85.
Um, do you even have a computer that runs COBOL??
:shock:

(I guess I’m old, I actually know what COBOL is. :| )
I took a semester of COBOL in college. 1997.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave.
100% stock. I was invested in 2008 and am prepared to lose 50% just like I did in 2008. But I suppose I would still be considered young and have only been a forum member for a couple years now.

I don't want to get all "this time it's different" with bonds, but feel honestly that my generation won't have the same Bond bull market a lot of older people did. Just like a college degree for us wasn't an automatic path to success, we couldn't afford college on our part time jobs, and we won't be able to rely on our pensions with even social security looking like it might take a 25% haircut. Some things do change. I do plan to get into bonds when I am older. If I had a parent as well off as a lot of the posters on here I might think differently, but the "new normal" is a growing income gap where many my age will have to work as long as we can stay healthy and can't afford the plattitudes of boomers or even older Xers.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:43 am

I was feeling cocky myself thinking stocks will surely be much higher given my timeline so why bother rebalancing right now when I came across this:

The Worst Bear Market That Nobody Ever Talks About
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/0 ... lks-about/

From 1965 to 1982 (17 years), stocks basically gained a sum total of 0.19% with large gyrations in between. Bonds meanwhile returned about 1.3% annually.
Maybe no one talks about, but all the modelling tools like FireCalc, cFireSim, etc. show that retirements starting in the mid 60s (1965, 1966) produce some of the worst outcomes when considering various withdrawal strategies. Not only were the return lack luster, but there was high inflation during much of that period.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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AnalogKid22
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Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:49 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:55 am
When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave.
Those periods were several years ago, so I can understand people forgetting them with such an amazing bull run since, or, as you say, perhaps they weren't invested during those times. But, there's no denying some of the shocked reactions on this board during the unexpected, albeit small, 10% correction last February when the market was surging based on the new corporate tax plan and a strong forecast for 2018. The correction has now been erased, but if 10% sent shockwaves through your system, some people might want to consider rebalancing sooner than later. Here's hoping 2018 continues to be a strong year for stocks, but you're likely taking far too much risk if you can't handle a few dips along the way.
There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds.
For rebalancing, I consider bonds on sale.
Last edited by AnalogKid22 on Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:05 am, edited 3 times in total.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

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DaftInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DaftInvestor » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:53 am

A MUCH better headline to look at than the "Freefall" headline!

:sharebeer

I did recently re-balance into International and Bonds to get my numbers back to targets. If the market drops I can just re-balance again and take advantage of some lower prices.

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