M* vs Fool.com Charts

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intimidator3716
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M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by intimidator3716 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:14 pm

I hope this is a dumb question that noone has ever had to ask before and that is why i can't find it through searches.

I know that morningstar shows total returns in their charts and I'm pretty confident that fool.com shows stock price only. However, i am trying to compare relative performance with reversion to the mean in the back of my mind. I am comparing DODGX (Dodge and Cox Stock) to the S&P 500 index from 1975 to 2005.

Can someone explain to me why on Morningstar (http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... ture=en_US) from 1975 to 2005 the chart shows DODGX@700k vs SP500@370k but fool.com (https://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaqmutfun ... tive-chart) shows SP500@1500% and DODGX@1000%?

I tried using marketwatch and google as a 3rd data source but they do not go back to 1975. I can not fathom how DODGX can generate twice the return on M* and only 2/3rds the return on fool.com.

My assumptions:
I don't believe that mutual funds like DODGX can split like stocks.
Total return of sp500 on M* should include reinvestment of dividends just like for DODGX.

Thank you in advance, this is my first post and I want to let everyone on this board know that you have already been extremely helpful.

venkman
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by venkman » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:05 pm

It looks like the Fool chart is only showing price growth, while the M* chart is showing total growth, including reinvested dividends.

intimidator3716
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by intimidator3716 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:16 pm

I absolutely agree but dodgx and sp500 both have dividends of roughly 2%. I'm sure they tracked relatively closly on dividends for all 30 years since they are both US Large Cap. If m* doesn't apply dividends to the sp500 then that could be the answer, since 2% compounded for 30 years is 82%, but that would seem to be very misleading for m* to do that and put the sp500 on every total return chart as the basis of comparison.

not4me
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by not4me » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:58 am

I don't use these charts enough to know how they really work. My 1st thought though was that the mutual fund would be affected by offsetting losses & the index would not. To validate that, you might look at certain time periods in detail, try doing the same thing with a sp500 index fund etc...just a thought, but would be interested in hearing the outcome

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Doc
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by Doc » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:22 am

venkman wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:05 pm
It looks like the Fool chart is only showing price growth, while the M* chart is showing total growth, including reinvested dividends.
Morningstar has chart options for growth, price and (multiple length) rolling returns.
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.

intimidator3716
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by intimidator3716 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:31 am

For educational purposes I decided to try something more recent and using VFINX (Vanguard 500 Investor Class) vs DODGX this time since it is a fund instead of an index. I got similar scary results. There has to be some fundamental methodology that we are overlooking.

Date Range: 1/1/2010 - 7/13/18
M* final value: DODGX=29,326, VFINX=29,667
fool.com %rise since 1/1/2010: DODGX=115%, VFINX=150%

Expense ratios are reflected in the funds price. There are no loads on these funds. Dividends are very similar on these funds. 1.58 vs 1.75. The $300 that VFINX is greater than DODGX would be roughly 3% of the initial $10000 investment so I would expect VFINX to be 118% plus ~4% for dividends, so maybe 122%.

not4me
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by not4me » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:39 am

intimidator3716 wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:31 am
For educational purposes I decided to try something more recent and using VFINX (Vanguard 500 Investor Class) vs DODGX this time since it is a fund instead of an index. I got similar scary results. There has to be some fundamental methodology that we are overlooking.

Date Range: 1/1/2010 - 7/13/18
M* final value: DODGX=29,326, VFINX=29,667
fool.com %rise since 1/1/2010: DODGX=115%, VFINX=150%

Expense ratios are reflected in the funds price. There are no loads on these funds. Dividends are very similar on these funds. 1.58 vs 1.75. The $300 that VFINX is greater than DODGX would be roughly 3% of the initial $10000 investment so I would expect VFINX to be 118% plus ~4% for dividends, so maybe 122%.
intimidator, this is what I was suggesting earlier, but you didn't comment on. This to me lends support to what I was suggesting. Agree or disagree? You've looked at it more than I -- I'm trying to understand where you are on that thought

intimidator3716
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by intimidator3716 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:39 am

Thank you Doc, I never noticed that drop down. M* Price chart matches fool.com, no conspiracies going on.
not4you, I can't say exactly why the growth doesn't correlate with price from Jan 1997 to Jan 2003 (when DODGX gets its big boost) without a lot more digging. I can just say there are a lot more forces on growth than stock price. Like volatility, tax efficiency, dividends, expenses, etc, etc.

Thank you all for the education and insights. Just to sum up my findings, DODGX and VFINX (aka the market) march pretty close together 1975-1997, DODGX got the tech bubble correct, and from 2003 to 2018 they march together for the most part.

I guess it comes down to do I think Dodge and Cox will stay out of the next crash or did they just get lucky? And if they do dodge the next crash, does it overcome their expenses for the next 30 years (my holding period) or any taxable events if i wanted to sell my DODGX for VFINX (pretty sure that answer is no, uncle sam gets a lot because this is in my taxable account).

Thank you again, That Bogle guy really knew what he was talking about in his Tell Tale charts :beer

not4me
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by not4me » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:52 am

intimidator3716 wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:39 am
Thank you Doc, I never noticed that drop down. M* Price chart matches fool.com, no conspiracies going on.
not4you, I can't say exactly why the growth doesn't correlate with price from Jan 1997 to Jan 2003 (when DODGX gets its big boost) without a lot more digging. I can just say there are a lot more forces on growth than stock price. Like volatility, tax efficiency, dividends, expenses, etc, etc.

Thank you all for the education and insights. Just to sum up my findings, DODGX and VFINX (aka the market) march pretty close together 1975-1997, DODGX got the tech bubble correct, and from 2003 to 2018 they march together for the most part.

I guess it comes down to do I think Dodge and Cox will stay out of the next crash or did they just get lucky? And if they do dodge the next crash, does it overcome their expenses for the next 30 years (my holding period) or any taxable events if i wanted to sell my DODGX for VFINX (pretty sure that answer is no, uncle sam gets a lot because this is in my taxable account).

Thank you again, That Bogle guy really knew what he was talking about in his Tell Tale charts :beer
kudos to Doc for understanding...I thought you were trying to reconcile between growth & price. Sorry for confusion. Just an added word on Dodge & cox...they are long standing shop that has a value focus. I don't think they claim they'll match sp500 for any particular time period.

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Doc
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Re: M* vs Fool.com Charts

Post by Doc » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:55 pm

not4me wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:52 am
I don't think they claim they'll match sp500 for any particular time period.
I like to use the Morningstar rolling return charts to get a handle on how things compare over different times.

Example:

Image
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.

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