Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

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bligh
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Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by bligh » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:54 pm

Did anyone else notice that VWO (Emerging Market ETF) is down almost 20% from its peak? I am not sure how much further it has to fall, but I have to say that so far I have been pleasantly surprised with my willingness to stay the course. I will be rebalancing with new money next month so hopefully the market doesn't bounce back by then.

I've been surprised by the resilience of the US and European markets though. I imagine with a more domestic consumption base they are not as impacted by the possibility of changes and disruptions in global trade.

Yankuba
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Yankuba » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:31 pm

I noticed - every week I invest a couple of hundred dollars and it has all been going to Emerging Markets the last few months because it trails my other funds. I think it was my best performing index fund earlier in the year but now it is the worst. I have been in emerging markets for more than 15 years and it has been up maybe 6% per year over that time. Not terrible, but I believe it trails all US asset classes. I am getting sour on emerging markets - the ten year returns are awful - but at least it is only a small percentage of my portfolio.

Housedoc
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Housedoc » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:37 pm

I moved out of EM in May, 80% Vang total, 20% international now.
I was that way for years and did well. My mindset is be happy and don't chase the world I know little about.

TIAX
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by TIAX » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:53 pm

Housedoc wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:37 pm
I moved out of EM in May, 80% Vang total, 20% international now.
I was that way for years and did well. My mindset is be happy and don't chase the world I know little about.
Selling low sounds like chasing returns to me.

FootballFan5548
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by FootballFan5548 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:58 pm

I feel like I've been catching a falling knife with VWO. I've been throwing money at it to keep my EM % of International in line. The last couple of weeks every time it's down 1-2% I throw a few hundred bucks at it, and it keeps on sliding down 1-2% regularly. Bummer.

nexesn
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by nexesn » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:08 pm

+1

You can add me to the same club. I thought this would be a good sector to have more exposure to, so I've increased my investment %. But each day, it keeps going down. I'm in it for a long hold, but it does make me wish I didn't invest so much 2 weeks ago (I know this is called market timing, but I can still say I wish I'd waited). At least I'm not down 20% :D

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:10 pm

Fed raise interest. Dollars flow out of EM. But I think it is a good time to add positions in EM. Maybe not once, DCA it.

Theoretical
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Theoretical » Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:50 pm

EM valuations are getting back to the crazy cheap for value. Even aside from valuation issues, its standard deviation is so high it’s always a roller coaster.

averagedude
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by averagedude » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:11 pm

EM has a history of wide swings. You got to have an iron stomach if you own them. Stay the course.

letsgobobby
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:14 pm

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Last edited by letsgobobby on Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Engineer250
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Engineer250 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:18 pm

I didn't realize this was happening but it explains why my EM in my spreadsheet is below my desired AA. I have a lot of my international in the TSP so have to manually balance international small cap and EM. I finally got my small cap where it should be (market weight) and couldn't figure out why my EM was a few percent below. Oh well, I know where most of my contributions will be going in the next few paychecks.

I don't pay attention to performance. Just hold 50/50 US/International and try to keep market weight numbers of small cap (and EM in international) in both.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

livesoft
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by livesoft » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:39 pm

bligh wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:54 pm
Did anyone else notice that VWO (Emerging Market ETF) is down almost 20% from its peak?
Does that includes dividends? Let me look ...

... down about 17% from the peak, but only down 4% from a December 2017 low.
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bgf
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by bgf » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:46 pm

I hadn't noticed til I saw it in a headline this afternoon. I'll rebalance with this month's dividends and contributions.
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rj49
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by rj49 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:36 pm

I look on the positive of having its volatility buried within Target Retirement funds, and the funds buying more at lower prices in order to rebalance internally. Then evidently the TSP income fund I own will shift to an international index that includes EM stocks, so that portion will also be bought at a big discount. That's one of the virtues of an all-world balanced fund, there are usually things that zig while others zag, and so one doesn't notice as much volatility as I would have with individual funds for each segment, and I get less anxious over headline scares about the bond market, Italy and other European countries, Chinese debt or trade wars, or overvaluation of the US stock market. I let Vanguard rebalance and ratchet down risk over time in the TR funds, and I have my TSP set on 72T withdrawals, so I get a monthly check and it feels like an annuity with some growth potential.

MnD
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by MnD » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:54 am

averagedude wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:11 pm
EM has a history of wide swings. You got to have an iron stomach if you own them. Stay the course.
I mirror global market cap as best as I can with my fund choices in various accounts so I don't worry about what the various equity classes are doing relative to each other nor do I "rebalance" into various equity classes. I have no idea what the "right" percentage of EM would be, as is implied by holding a fixed allocation. I buy the haystack and receive what the market returns.

EM was 9.7% of total world equity as of May 31, 2018 in Vanguard Total World Stock so I guess I have a little less than that now.
A "really big week" good or bad for EM will move my EM allocation (if I bother to check) by around 0.3% of portfolio composition.
During this big bear EM market, EM has plummeted as a share of my portfolio allocation by 1 percentage point - OMG!
Not very exciting - and no cast iron stomach required. :mrgreen:

The only rebalancing I do is when my safe funds (stable value and fixed income) falls below 27% or exceed 33%.
70/30 AA, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if FI <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.

MnD
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by MnD » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:12 am

rj49 wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:36 pm
I look on the positive of having its volatility buried within Target Retirement funds, and the funds buying more at lower prices in order to rebalance internally. Then evidently the TSP income fund I own will shift to an international index that includes EM stocks, so that portion will also be bought at a big discount. That's one of the virtues of an all-world balanced fund, there are usually things that zig while others zag, and so one doesn't notice as much volatility as I would have with individual funds for each segment, and I get less anxious over headline scares about the bond market, Italy and other European countries, Chinese debt or trade wars, or overvaluation of the US stock market. I let Vanguard rebalance and ratchet down risk over time in the TR funds, and I have my TSP set on 72T withdrawals, so I get a monthly check and it feels like an annuity with some growth potential.
If you are mirroring a total international or total world index approach or investing in funds that have that mandate, you or the fund managers are not selling other equity classes (like US or developed international) and buying EM shares to "rebalance internally". EM, if in a EM-specific decline, will and should decline as a percentage component of total international or total world. Likewise if (for example) China becomes 30% of the global market cap but remained in the EM category, EM in total world stock might go from 10% now to 40%. The fund managers would not be selling China to keep it and EM at some particular fixed percentage.
70/30 AA, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if FI <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.

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Doc
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Doc » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:11 am

averagedude wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:11 pm
EM has a history of wide swings. You got to have an iron stomach if you own them. Stay the course.
Our EM position has not dropped at all. :D
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.

onourway
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by onourway » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:25 am

Nearly all of the 'loss' is a retreat from an extremely short-lived peak between December and January. Otherwise, as Livesoft already mentioned, it's off about 4% since last fall, and still up ~4% for the last year.

le_sacre
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by le_sacre » Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:47 am

When I first acquired my positions in EM and developed markets, I wasn't thinking carefully (enough) of setting a target allocation. As such, I ended up really heavily tilted toward EM (which luckily has turned out fine). When I realized I should be more Bogleheaded about it, I decided I would gradually rebalance (toward a less extreme EM tilt) by additional contributions to developed rather than selling EM.

But even though I am still above my desired tilt, it is a bit hard to resist the temptation to buy EM now! Can't help that regret of "If only I'd set a sensible allocation from the start, I could rebalance right now and feel great about it!"

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by jhfenton » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:19 pm

Meh. It's what EM does. I've been investing in EM since 1998, when we opened our Roth IRAs. You have to accept the volatility and rebalance into and out of it.

JBTX
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by JBTX » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:25 pm

EM has a disproportionate share of commodities in them and commodities have not been read hot for a while.

niceguy7376
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by niceguy7376 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:43 pm

What are some fund names at VG and Fido for this EM?

asif408
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by asif408 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:25 pm

JBTX wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:25 pm
EM has a disproportionate share of commodities in them and commodities have not been read hot for a while.
At least according to Morningstar, Vanguard Total Stock Market has about 9% in materials and energy companies, while Vanguard Emerging Markets Index has 15% in materials and energy companies. A difference, yes, but not exactly disproportionate or even close to the way it used to be. The biggest differences sector wise appears to be healthcare and financials when comparing the two.

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by JBTX » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:09 pm

asif408 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:25 pm
JBTX wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:25 pm
EM has a disproportionate share of commodities in them and commodities have not been read hot for a while.
At least according to Morningstar, Vanguard Total Stock Market has about 9% in materials and energy companies, while Vanguard Emerging Markets Index has 15% in materials and energy companies. A difference, yes, but not exactly disproportionate or even close to the way it used to be. The biggest differences sector wise appears to be healthcare and financials when comparing the two.
You are correct. My perception of EM was outdated.

https://www.americanfunds.com/individua ... rkets.html

bgf
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by bgf » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:33 pm

JBTX wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:09 pm
asif408 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:25 pm
JBTX wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:25 pm
EM has a disproportionate share of commodities in them and commodities have not been read hot for a while.
At least according to Morningstar, Vanguard Total Stock Market has about 9% in materials and energy companies, while Vanguard Emerging Markets Index has 15% in materials and energy companies. A difference, yes, but not exactly disproportionate or even close to the way it used to be. The biggest differences sector wise appears to be healthcare and financials when comparing the two.
You are correct. My perception of EM was outdated.

https://www.americanfunds.com/individua ... rkets.html
i think that your perception was a common one on these boards. in reality, the largest companies owned by VWO are very large, cutting edge tech companies in modern cities.

Tencent,Taiwan Semiconductor, Alibaba, Naspers, Baidu, etc.
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boglewill34
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by boglewill34 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:41 pm

niceguy7376 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:43 pm
What are some fund names at VG and Fido for this EM?
Not these two, but at Schwab I hold SFENX.

drk
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by drk » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:49 pm

niceguy7376 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:43 pm
What are some fund names at VG and Fido for this EM?
At Vanguard, it's FTSE Emerging Markets. At Fidelity, it's iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. Note that the latter includes South Korea as an emerging market.

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Call_Me_Op » Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:10 am

If you do not know why you have tilted toward EM, you will have a hard time sticking with it.
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by nedsaid » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:21 am

FootballFan5548 wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:58 pm
I feel like I've been catching a falling knife with VWO. I've been throwing money at it to keep my EM % of International in line. The last couple of weeks every time it's down 1-2% I throw a few hundred bucks at it, and it keeps on sliding down 1-2% regularly. Bummer.
Emerging Markets are nicknamed Submerging Markets for a reason. This is a potentially very rewarding asset class over time but also very volatile. Emerging Markets run hot and cold. You just have to be very patient with these.
A fool and his money are good for business.

livesoft
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:45 am

Up 2% in less than 24 hours. How do like them apples?
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davidsorensen32
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by davidsorensen32 » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:51 am

I sold all my emerging last year after holding them for 20+ years. In the last couple years I travelled to a lot of them and experienced first hand corruption, lack of transparency and lack of rules thats conducive to investing. I became very pessimistic. I don’t believe in emerging anymore. In fact I don’t believe in International either. US is an exception. Even Europe don’t share our market driven values. Just look at how they manage their pension funds

bligh wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:54 pm
Did anyone else notice that VWO (Emerging Market ETF) is down almost 20% from its peak? I am not sure how much further it has to fall, but I have to say that so far I have been pleasantly surprised with my willingness to stay the course. I will be rebalancing with new money next month so hopefully the market doesn't bounce back by then.

I've been surprised by the resilience of the US and European markets though. I imagine with a more domestic consumption base they are not as impacted by the possibility of changes and disruptions in global trade.

heyyou
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by heyyou » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:02 pm

by letsgobobby » I had no idea and don't care.
by jhfenton » Meh. It's what EM does. I've been investing in EM since 1998, when we opened our Roth IRAs. You have to accept the volatility and rebalance into and out of it.
Thank you. From reading this thread, I was getting the idea that I was supposed to steadily monitor each of my stock allocations.

TIAX
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by TIAX » Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:41 am

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:51 am
I sold all my emerging last year after holding them for 20+ years. In the last couple years I travelled to a lot of them and experienced first hand corruption, lack of transparency and lack of rules thats conducive to investing.
And do you think the market is unaware there's more corruption in emerging markets?

Valuethinker
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:50 am

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:51 am
I sold all my emerging last year after holding them for 20+ years. In the last couple years I travelled to a lot of them and experienced first hand corruption, lack of transparency and lack of rules thats conducive to investing. I became very pessimistic. I don’t believe in emerging anymore. In fact I don’t believe in International either. US is an exception. Even Europe don’t share our market driven values. Just look at how they manage their pension funds

bligh wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:54 pm
Did anyone else notice that VWO (Emerging Market ETF) is down almost 20% from its peak? I am not sure how much further it has to fall, but I have to say that so far I have been pleasantly surprised with my willingness to stay the course. I will be rebalancing with new money next month so hopefully the market doesn't bounce back by then.

I've been surprised by the resilience of the US and European markets though. I imagine with a more domestic consumption base they are not as impacted by the possibility of changes and disruptions in global trade.
I don't think that one can point at Europe and "how they manage their pension funds"?

The Norwegian State oil fund which owns 1.5 per cent ish of every listed company in the world is managed on very Boglehead principles.

PGGM one of the largest pension funds in the world? Ditto.

What pension funds were you referring to?

In a way this is irrelevant because we have to assume the market knows this already and has priced it in?

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by david1082b » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:51 am

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:51 am
US is an exception. Even Europe don’t share our market driven values. Just look at how they manage their pension funds
US and Europe have world’s worst-funded corporate pension schemes

The study, which looked at more than 9,000 companies globally, found that businesses in North America and Europe have the largest pension underfunding levels compared with revenues.
https://www.ft.com/content/bab7da4e-948 ... d2f0ebb7f0
Corporate Pension Funding Gap To Hit Record This Year https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconst ... this-year/
Best avoid USA too then.

columbia
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by columbia » Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:36 am

I can’t get to those links, but how prevalent are corporate pension funds in EM companies? If you don’t offer a pension plan, it can’t be underfunded...

sabhen
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by sabhen » Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:42 am

While I always believed in international investing as a useful diversifier, one has to be selective. In my view, the reason US markets are outperforming and will continue to do so is the innovation culture. Europe does not have Facebook, Google, or Amazon. Also, the US has a laser-focus on "shareholder value". US law favors shareholders. Companies will not hesitate firing employees and closing down plants to reduce costs. European countries to varying degrees believe in some form of stakeholder capitalism or social market (i.e.: Germany). Companies/Management balance the needs of employees, shareholders, suppliers etc... Because the US is such a large and diverse economy, I prefer to have most of my investments in the US. This allows me to indulge my love for travel to Europe.

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by drk » Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:13 am

sabhen wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:42 am
While I always believed in international investing as a useful diversifier, one has to be selective. In my view, the reason US markets are outperforming and will continue to do so is the innovation culture. Europe does not have Facebook, Google, or Amazon. Also, the US has a laser-focus on "shareholder value". US law favors shareholders. Companies will not hesitate firing employees and closing down plants to reduce costs. European countries to varying degrees believe in some form of stakeholder capitalism or social market (i.e.: Germany). Companies/Management balance the needs of employees, shareholders, suppliers etc... Because the US is such a large and diverse economy, I prefer to have most of my investments in the US. This allows me to indulge my love for travel to Europe.
I'm not sure what this has to do with emerging markets. Europe only makes up 5.36% of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets.

For what it's worth, it remains an open question whether companies' focus on shareholder value is a positive long-term economic phenomenon. It's still a very young idea.

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asset_chaos
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by asset_chaos » Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:46 pm

"[Y]ou are never adequately diversified unless you have some holdings that make you uncomfortable" wrote Peter Bernstein in a salient essay on the 60/40 portfolio and investment survival (http://web.archive.org/web/200612140619 ... in6040.pdf). Perhaps being the uncomfortable holding is the portfolio role assigned to emerging markets (EM) stocks when owning them through a separate fund. Back in the days when I owned EM via a separate fund---the only option then---I remember them as being markedly more volatile than developed market stock funds. Maybe a separate EM fund makes it easier to stay the course with the other stock holdings, which are calm by comparison.

What's the most volatile sector of the US stock market? I don't know either. Nowadays I own a market proportion of EM stocks through total word stock fund. I neither notice nor worry about the volatility of particular sectors of the global market any more than a typical investor in the total US stock fund knows or worries about the volatility of the consumer cyclical or railroad sectors. Just stocks are my uncomfortable holding now. Oops, have I simplified too much?
Regards, | | Guy

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patrick013
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by patrick013 » Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:22 pm

Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business
activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity
markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down
20% I don't know. No info.

Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I
ever have the time for it.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:28 pm

livesoft wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:45 am
Up 2% in less than 24 hours. How do like them apples?
Wait til Monday.......
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Makaveli
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Makaveli » Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:00 pm

Small tilt to VWO and rarely rebalance (other than new contributions or dividend reinvestments). That tilt resides within my rIRA so its impossible to harvest losses. Perhaps an area for improvement.

staythecourse
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by staythecourse » Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:28 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:14 pm
I had no idea and don't care.
Agreed.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

3funder
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by 3funder » Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:51 am

FootballFan5548 wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:58 pm
I feel like I've been catching a falling knife with VWO. I've been throwing money at it to keep my EM % of International in line. The last couple of weeks every time it's down 1-2% I throw a few hundred bucks at it, and it keeps on sliding down 1-2% regularly. Bummer.
Until it doesn't. Every dog has its day.

columbia
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by columbia » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:04 am

patrick013 wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:22 pm
Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business
activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity
markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down
20% I don't know. No info.

Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I
ever have the time for it.
Something like this?
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/271 ... factor-etf

texasdiver
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by texasdiver » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:30 pm

This is a reason why I have most of our investments in target retirement funds. I know there is an emerging market component in our portfolio but it isn't broken out so when I track account balances I don't see the separate balance for each component of the portfolio and start thinking about making stupid changes. It's a lot easier to just let things ride when it isn't broken out separately.

Valuethinker
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Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:43 pm

columbia wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:04 am
patrick013 wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:22 pm
Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business
activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity
markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down
20% I don't know. No info.

Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I
ever have the time for it.
Something like this?
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/271 ... factor-etf
Not an EM fund?

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Location: Montana

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by montanagirl » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:46 pm

I almost jumped in this year...almost.. :beer

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patrick013
Posts: 2797
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by patrick013 » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:57 pm

columbia wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:04 am
patrick013 wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:22 pm
Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business
activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity
markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down
20% I don't know. No info.

Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I
ever have the time for it.
Something like this?
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/271 ... factor-etf
Yeah, good enough for the old stand-by's. Something like that for
EM too. With all the equity market segmentation at least the index
would be with companies that are cash heavy, invested for safety.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

heyyou
Posts: 3595
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:58 pm

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Post by heyyou » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:47 am

I feel like I've been catching a falling knife with VWO. I've been throwing money at it to keep my EM % of International in line. The last couple of weeks every time it's down 1-2% I throw a few hundred bucks at it, and it keeps on sliding down 1-2% regularly. Bummer.
There I was, in the 1980s buying those S&P500 fund shares at fluctuating prices. Eventually my portfolio grew a little larger, more from contributions than fund gains. These days, that seems to have worked out well, so give EM some time, maybe 20+ years. Risk seems to appear long before the reward shows up.

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