Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

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1210sda
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Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by 1210sda » Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 pm

I'm kind of late on this, but I just discovered PV.

Just so many tools. It's hard to know where to begin.

Out of curiosity, I first tried the "Historical Efficient Frontier". I used both the Boglehead's 3 fund portfolio and Stocks/Bonds 60/40 (essentially the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund). Wanted to see if they fell on the efficient frontier line. Well, the 60/40 did and the 3FP didn't. It was the international stocks that kept the 3FP from being "efficient".

Does this mean that the 3FP isn't efficient? That the proxy for total international (Global ex-US Market) is not correct? That the available history of returns (from 1987) is inadequate, or that the efficient frontier is not meaningful? Other?

I would appreciate feedback on ways you have used PV. I really like the ability it provides to download results to an excel spreadsheet.

Thanks

1210

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Sun May 20, 2018 12:47 pm

My advice: Keeping playing with PV. Lots of good stuff there. I use the Monte Carlo functionality.

You might want to complement your PV play with Portfolio Charts (portfoliocharts.com). I really like it for the complex visualizations. I seem to recall some guy, Tyler 9000, has something to do with it. What I will say is that the data visualization on that site is simply outstanding. I do not say that lightly; I work with a number of professionals in the data visualization field. PV is a winner.
“If you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.”

venkman
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by venkman » Sun May 20, 2018 8:42 pm

1210sda wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 pm
Does this mean that the 3FP isn't efficient? That the proxy for total international (Global ex-US Market) is not correct? That the available history of returns (from 1987) is inadequate, or that the efficient frontier is not meaningful? Other?
Efficient frontier backtesting is kinda like asset class backtesting--it tells you what the optimum portfolio WAS for a given time period, not what it will be in the future.

The 3FP wasn't designed to be the most efficient possible portfolio. It was designed to be the SIMPLEST possible portfolio that provided low cost and wide diversification, and was suitable for most individual investors.

dbr
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by dbr » Sun May 20, 2018 8:58 pm

I think these things are intellectually interesting but as practical investing goes optimizing portfolio performance in whatever sense one takes that to be is tilting at windmills. <--- That is an opinion. Don't ask for proof because I don't have a quantified definition of TaWMs.

That does not mean there is not insight to be gained from contemplating results that can be generated in PV. It is in fact a marvelous application.

Angst
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by Angst » Sun May 20, 2018 9:40 pm

Yes, a site well worth spending some time at.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon May 21, 2018 1:58 am

OP makes two points:
1. That Portfolio Visualizer is wonderful tool.
2. That Total International has lagged Total Stock in the recent past.

I agree on both points. Nevertheless, I am keeping my three fund portfolio. There are numerous lengthy threads here on BH that make the case for international. I won’t repeat the reasons here.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon May 21, 2018 9:23 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 1:58 am
OP makes two points:
1. That Portfolio Visualizer is wonderful tool.
2. That Total International has lagged Total Stock in the recent past.

I agree on both points. Nevertheless, I am keeping my three fund portfolio. There are numerous lengthy threads here on BH that make the case for international. I won’t repeat the reasons here.
Things can stay cheap for a long time. Things can also remain expensive for a long time. The only way to ensure you are there ALL of the time, is to maintain ownership stakes in all asset classes. It's the proportion owned that can make or break a portfolio's return vs. the benchmark. If you are fine with deviating from the benchmark return both upside and downside, then stay the course. Owning broad based index funds ensures you are in all sectors of the market.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

123
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by 123 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:44 am

1210sda wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 pm
I'm kind of late on this, but I just discovered PV.

Just so many tools. It's hard to know where to begin...
I'm bringing back this thread to encourage people to try "Portfolio Visualizer". It really is a fantastic tool for backtesting stuff. Of course I've seen many references to it over the years but I never bothered to explore it. It's a nifty tool. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.

tj
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by tj » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:34 am

Is PV gone? When i try to go it says 404 NOt Found

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nisiprius
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by nisiprius » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:43 am

tj wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:34 am
Is PV gone? When i try to go it says 404 NOt Found
It worked for me a second ago. Are you absolutely sure you used the right URL: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

Speaking of it strictly as a website I've found it to be consistently available and fast.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

tj
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by tj » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:31 am

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:43 am
tj wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:34 am
Is PV gone? When i try to go it says 404 NOt Found
It worked for me a second ago. Are you absolutely sure you used the right URL: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

Speaking of it strictly as a website I've found it to be consistently available and fast.
It is working again. That was odd.

Greg in Idaho
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by Greg in Idaho » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:38 am

There goes a bunch more hours online...damn you!

I had seen so many references to PV here but never bothered, because cfiresim offered all I wanted...except more

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DWesterb2iz2
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by DWesterb2iz2 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:02 am

I’m a backtesting genius. If anyone ever needs a portfolio that used to perform really well, I’m your man.

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nedsaid
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:12 am

DWesterb2iz2 wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:02 am
I’m a backtesting genius. If anyone ever needs a portfolio that used to perform really well, I’m your man.
Yes, but can you future test? :wink:

All kidding aside, portfolio visualizer is an excellent tool. I have used it for portfolio analysis and for comparison. Unfortunately, past data is all we have and we all know that past performance does not guarantee future results, but the past does give us an idea of what might well happen in the future. It has its limitations but it is a fine analysis tool.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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DWesterb2iz2
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by DWesterb2iz2 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:23 am

Yep, Nedsaid, that's the joke!

dcabler
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by dcabler » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:53 am

AtlasShrugged? wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 12:47 pm
My advice: Keeping playing with PV. Lots of good stuff there. I use the Monte Carlo functionality.

You might want to complement your PV play with Portfolio Charts (portfoliocharts.com). I really like it for the complex visualizations. I seem to recall some guy, Tyler 9000, has something to do with it. What I will say is that the data visualization on that site is simply outstanding. I do not say that lightly; I work with a number of professionals in the data visualization field. PV is a winner.
Yes on all counts. And I would also add the Simba spreadsheet, available here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2520&start=700#p2753812

letsgobobby
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:55 am

How do you enter a portfolio in PV? I can’t find the data entry fields.

dcabler
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by dcabler » Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:33 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:55 am
How do you enter a portfolio in PV? I can’t find the data entry fields.
Starting here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Look at the rows: Asset1, Asset2, etc. There's a field for "Ticker Symbol" and %

letsgobobby
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:13 am

dcabler wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:33 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:55 am
How do you enter a portfolio in PV? I can’t find the data entry fields.
Starting here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Look at the rows: Asset1, Asset2, etc. There's a field for "Ticker Symbol" and %
My portfolio is in dollars, not percentages, and changes daily. How do I enter my specific portfolio?

dcabler
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by dcabler » Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:15 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:13 am
dcabler wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:33 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:55 am
How do you enter a portfolio in PV? I can’t find the data entry fields.
Starting here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Look at the rows: Asset1, Asset2, etc. There's a field for "Ticker Symbol" and %
My portfolio is in dollars, not percentages, and changes daily. How do I enter my specific portfolio?
You'll have to convert your portfolio to percentages. Really, this is just a backtester. It's not intended to be something you re-run very often

letsgobobby
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:38 pm

Yeah, scratch that. PV is not for tracking my investments. Still looking.

dcabler
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by dcabler » Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:49 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:38 pm
Yeah, scratch that. PV is not for tracking my investments. Still looking.
A lot of us just created our own spreadsheets for that. If you google within this forum, there are a few examples that some people have made public. Others use things like MINT or Personal Capital. Good luck!

letsgobobby
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:58 pm

As I wrote my spreadsheet no longer works consistently. Google spreadsheets seems to be bonking a lot. For > 12 hours last night I couldn’t add any new entries. Plus things are just too complex now. I’d like to avoid an aggregator, certainly I’m not comfortable giving out my log in info to multiple investment accounts but I’d also prefer not to enter ‘real’ data manually.

jmsaway
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by jmsaway » Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:04 am

While I find PV to be chock-full of info that I ASSUME is accurate, why is it when I change the Start Date from 1985 to 2000, the data do not appear to change? I haven't checked all of them but my eyes immediately go to CAGR.

vwgrrc
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by vwgrrc » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:12 pm

Anyone used the Portfolio Optimization tool there could share some thought? Do you follow or partially follow the results there?

One interesting thing I noticed is it will totally eliminate the International part in my portfolio if I don't give it a minimal, no matter what goal I choose. Fair enough since it's based on historical performance and international performed poorly in the past. On the other hand, Vanguard is suggesting more International these days. Also, when I put both Total Stock Market and SP500 without minimal, it will eliminate TSM and only use SP500.

I'm not going to eliminate my TSM and International allocation by any chance. Just some interesting findings using this tool. I like PV a lot and spent a lot of time playing with it :sharebeer

longinvest
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by longinvest » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Backtesting is a double-edged sword. When used to discover unsuspected risks and debunk false statements, it's awesome. When used to project past performance into the future, it can be extremely misleading. Unfortunately, some investors use it for the latter.

"The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future."
-- Jack Bogle
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic / international) stocks / domestic (nominal / inflation-indexed) long-term bonds | VCN/VXC/VLB/ZRR

international001
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Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

Post by international001 » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:34 pm

Backtesting is not only about finding the best past portfolio. Also about backtesting variance
I like to backtest my portfolio about different 10, 20 years intervals. If it performs about well in all these intervals, then it's a decent choice

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