In my experience, when there are fundamental disagreements between reasonable people, its because one, the other, or both are operating under different basic assumptions.fantasytensai wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 9:01 amIt appears that nobody is understanding the point that I am trying to make. When this many people are not getting it, it must be my fault. I will try one more time in the simplist terms possible, and if I still fail, I'm giving up.
1. Everyone is quick to point out that yield is increasing. But THE DROP IN NAV IS MUCH MORE THAN THE INCREASE IN YIELD. You start with $100. You lose $20 but gain $10. That's NOT good.
2. Everyone is also quick to point out that you have to look at the long term - 10 years rather than 5 months. But over a period of 10 years, owning 100% stocks has a much greater ceiling than 80/20, or even 90/10. The risks with stocks is almost always within shorter durations.
Since the OP has identified himself as the outlier here, it would be appropriate for him to review what he is assuming vis-a-vis what is classically asssumed in the Boglehead mantra and elsewhere. I would really be interested in a post from him squaring his POV with the general consensus described above. Nobody here is stupid.