Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

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CULater
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Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by CULater » Sat May 05, 2018 12:25 pm

“Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” Most of the time the answer is NO.

> Between 1926 and 2016, just 4% of all stocks accounted for all of the net gains in the U.S. market. All other stocks, as a group, delivered returns that were no better than Treasury bills.

> Over that same time period, more than half of all stocks would have delivered a negative return to a buy-and-hold shareholder. In fact, the single most common return was -100%—in other words, a complete loss.

> Treasury bills have historically returned just 2% a year. And yet, for any given stock in any given month, the odds of beating Treasury bills were slightly worse than even: T-bills beat individual stocks 52% of the time.

http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/05/any ... -average/

Makes me think that second only to making wine out of water is the miracle of making money out of stocks.
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

dbr
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by dbr » Sat May 05, 2018 12:44 pm

CULater wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 12:25 pm
“Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” Most of the time the answer is NO.

> Between 1926 and 2016, just 4% of all stocks accounted for all of the net gains in the U.S. market. All other stocks, as a group, delivered returns that were no better than Treasury bills.

> Over that same time period, more than half of all stocks would have delivered a negative return to a buy-and-hold shareholder. In fact, the single most common return was -100%—in other words, a complete loss.

> Treasury bills have historically returned just 2% a year. And yet, for any given stock in any given month, the odds of beating Treasury bills were slightly worse than even: T-bills beat individual stocks 52% of the time.

http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/05/any ... -average/

Makes me think that second only to making wine out of water is the miracle of making money out of stocks.
Maybe the data you report is not the relevant information to estimate the outcome you actually care about.

123
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by 123 » Sat May 05, 2018 12:56 pm

An excellent example of why it is rarely, if ever, to your advantage to buy an individual stock versus a broadly based index fund. Only with a broadly based investment strategy will you be able to capture the "unicorns", those stocks that primarily account for the rise in the stock market over time.
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.

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SimpleGift
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by SimpleGift » Sat May 05, 2018 1:19 pm

CULater wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 12:25 pm
Makes me think that second only to making wine out of water is the miracle of making money out of stocks.
No doubt, the distribution of returns of individual stocks has a large positive skew, with most stocks having negative or very low returns, balanced by a minority of super outperformers (chart below). Unlike in Lake Wobegon, where all children are above average, in the real world of positively skewed returns, the majority of stock returns are below average.
But the lesson is not to avoid investing in stocks — it's just to invest in ALL of the stocks in the market index, so that one is assured of capturing the return of the super-outperfomers. If one only holds a minority of names in the index (like most active managers), the odds are already stacked against you.
Cordially, Todd

lazyday
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by lazyday » Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am

If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.

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JoMoney
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by JoMoney » Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am

lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

lazyday
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by lazyday » Sun May 06, 2018 4:56 am

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
voya wrote:Created in 1935 with an equal number of common stock shares of the 30 leading U.S. companies at the time; currently invested in a total of 22 leading U.S. corporations

New stocks can’t be purchased, so holdings have changed only due to spin-offs or mergers since Fund inception
Nice, I wouldn't have guessed 22 companies after 80+ years, even with spin-offs.

There may be some survivorship bias if 1935 was a lucky year to start. But imagine if you tried this with a microcap fund!

Call_Me_Op
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sun May 06, 2018 5:48 am

You can solve this by using index funds.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

columbia
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by columbia » Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b

Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.

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JoMoney
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by JoMoney » Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am

columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

anil686
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by anil686 » Sun May 06, 2018 8:15 am

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.
Bogle pointed this out in Common Sense on Mutual Funds - Chapter 13 on Taxes - he cited this fund as very tax efficient (obviously no turnover) and actually outperformed the SP500 since it's inception to 1997 at the time of the writing. Obviously not as diversified as an index fund but pretty impressive...

columbia
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by columbia » Sun May 06, 2018 8:22 am

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.

Hah! And has definitely underperformed since then.

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nedsaid
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by nedsaid » Sun May 06, 2018 9:39 am

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
I have to admit I shake my head when I see threads like this, I have owned stocks individually for 30 years and I have not witnessed the effect that most stocks have very poor performance. Most all of the stocks that I own are Large Caps. My stocks have more or less tracked the market.

If I had to guess, there are probably 10,000 or so stocks out there in the United States. Only 3,500 or so are actually investable, these are what show up in the US Total Stock Market Index. The others have very thin trading volumes and are companies that very few longer term investors would have any interest in, these are speculative bets.

It is true that a relatively small subset of the market tends to drive the performance of the overall market. The thing is, the makeup of that subset is always changing. For example, no one talked about the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) until recent years. Apple and Amazon have been around for a while, the rest are relatively new companies.

The lesson here is that things look a whole lot better if you do a bit of screening to toss out the speculative junk. The universe of truly investable stocks looks better and the large caps look better yet.
A fool and his money are good for business.

snarlyjack
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by snarlyjack » Sun May 06, 2018 11:27 am

I totality agree Nedsaid.

I've been missing your comments (glad were back)..... :sharebeer

Snowjob
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by Snowjob » Sun May 06, 2018 11:36 am

columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:22 am
JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.

Hah! And has definitely underperformed since then.
Actually since inception its ahead by about 10%

rich126
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by rich126 » Sun May 06, 2018 1:13 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 9:39 am
JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
I have to admit I shake my head when I see threads like this, I have owned stocks individually for 30 years and I have not witnessed the effect that most stocks have very poor performance. Most all of the stocks that I own are Large Caps. My stocks have more or less tracked the market.

If I had to guess, there are probably 10,000 or so stocks out there in the United States. Only 3,500 or so are actually investable, these are what show up in the US Total Stock Market Index. The others have very thin trading volumes and are companies that very few longer term investors would have any interest in, these are speculative bets.

It is true that a relatively small subset of the market tends to drive the performance of the overall market. The thing is, the makeup of that subset is always changing. For example, no one talked about the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) until recent years. Apple and Amazon have been around for a while, the rest are relatively new companies.

The lesson here is that things look a whole lot better if you do a bit of screening to toss out the speculative junk. The universe of truly investable stocks looks better and the large caps look better yet.
When I saw this thread I just shook my head at its foolishness. I agree with your response. About the only true thing about owning an index is that you won't out perform it and for most people it is probably the safest investment.

I'm far from an expert stock whiz but just reading, filtering out the junk and hype, I'd done well. Due to my current job I have to track my accounts (yeah I probably should always do that but ...) and I've done better than the SP500 for the last 5+ yrs while maintaining far from being fully investment (i.e., I just look at account totals on 12/31 each year and compute the change).

I can't see how anyone thinks treasury bills is going to be a good investment over 50+ yrs compared to stocks.

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nedsaid
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by nedsaid » Sun May 06, 2018 2:48 pm

rich126 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 1:13 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 9:39 am
JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
I have to admit I shake my head when I see threads like this, I have owned stocks individually for 30 years and I have not witnessed the effect that most stocks have very poor performance. Most all of the stocks that I own are Large Caps. My stocks have more or less tracked the market.

If I had to guess, there are probably 10,000 or so stocks out there in the United States. Only 3,500 or so are actually investable, these are what show up in the US Total Stock Market Index. The others have very thin trading volumes and are companies that very few longer term investors would have any interest in, these are speculative bets.

It is true that a relatively small subset of the market tends to drive the performance of the overall market. The thing is, the makeup of that subset is always changing. For example, no one talked about the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) until recent years. Apple and Amazon have been around for a while, the rest are relatively new companies.

The lesson here is that things look a whole lot better if you do a bit of screening to toss out the speculative junk. The universe of truly investable stocks looks better and the large caps look better yet.
When I saw this thread I just shook my head at its foolishness. I agree with your response. About the only true thing about owning an index is that you won't out perform it and for most people it is probably the safest investment.

I'm far from an expert stock whiz but just reading, filtering out the junk and hype, I'd done well. Due to my current job I have to track my accounts (yeah I probably should always do that but ...) and I've done better than the SP500 for the last 5+ yrs while maintaining far from being fully investment (i.e., I just look at account totals on 12/31 each year and compute the change).

I can't see how anyone thinks treasury bills is going to be a good investment over 50+ yrs compared to stocks.
Hint: The S&P Indexes do a good job filtering out the junk. The US Total Stock Market Index has just over 50% of its market capitalization in the largest 100 companies. So market-cap weighting does its part too, though imperfectly, to filter out the junk.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by willthrill81 » Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 2:48 pm
rich126 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 1:13 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 9:39 am
JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 am
lazyday wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 am
If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer.

Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do.
As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mu ... d-series-b
I have to admit I shake my head when I see threads like this, I have owned stocks individually for 30 years and I have not witnessed the effect that most stocks have very poor performance. Most all of the stocks that I own are Large Caps. My stocks have more or less tracked the market.

If I had to guess, there are probably 10,000 or so stocks out there in the United States. Only 3,500 or so are actually investable, these are what show up in the US Total Stock Market Index. The others have very thin trading volumes and are companies that very few longer term investors would have any interest in, these are speculative bets.

It is true that a relatively small subset of the market tends to drive the performance of the overall market. The thing is, the makeup of that subset is always changing. For example, no one talked about the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) until recent years. Apple and Amazon have been around for a while, the rest are relatively new companies.

The lesson here is that things look a whole lot better if you do a bit of screening to toss out the speculative junk. The universe of truly investable stocks looks better and the large caps look better yet.
When I saw this thread I just shook my head at its foolishness. I agree with your response. About the only true thing about owning an index is that you won't out perform it and for most people it is probably the safest investment.

I'm far from an expert stock whiz but just reading, filtering out the junk and hype, I'd done well. Due to my current job I have to track my accounts (yeah I probably should always do that but ...) and I've done better than the SP500 for the last 5+ yrs while maintaining far from being fully investment (i.e., I just look at account totals on 12/31 each year and compute the change).

I can't see how anyone thinks treasury bills is going to be a good investment over 50+ yrs compared to stocks.
Hint: The S&P Indexes do a good job filtering out the junk. The US Total Stock Market Index has just over 50% of its market capitalization in the largest 100 companies. So market-cap weighting does its part too, though imperfectly, to filter out the junk.
Market-cap weighting of large caps or total markets, by definition, allocates the majority of the fund to the largest companies. The problem with this is that the largest companies in the market have a strong tendency to underperform the market going forward. That's why I think that equal-weighting or even reverse-weighting can make more sense.
In other words, holding just those aforementioned large-cap names, or a even a heavy concentration of those stocks in a portfolio, will eventually lead to underperformance, compared against a broader and more diversified investment basket, research has found.

On average, about seven of the 10 largest companies by market value in the S&P 500 underperformed their industry over the following decade by about 7 percentage points, based on research going back to 1997, according WSJ Market Data Group.

Arnott produced similar results by analyzing stock returns globally over six decades in a 2012 study, titled “Too big to succeed.”


“We found that two-thirds of the largest companies in the world underperformed their own sector over the ensuing 10 years—by an average 4.70% a year, Arnott said in a recent interview with MarketWatch.

The persistent outperformance of today’s largest tech companies isn’t sustainable in the long run, according to Arnott.

“Future success of these companies seems assured in the same way future success of tech companies in 2000 seemed assured. Back then, each had a compelling story. But of the 10 largest tech companies two failed and none outperformed the S&P 500 over the following 18 years,” Arnott explained.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... 2018-04-19

When I have mentioned this in other threads...it's crickets.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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nedsaid
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by nedsaid » Sun May 06, 2018 4:38 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 2:48 pm

Hint: The S&P Indexes do a good job filtering out the junk. The US Total Stock Market Index has just over 50% of its market capitalization in the largest 100 companies. So market-cap weighting does its part too, though imperfectly, to filter out the junk.
Market-cap weighting of large caps or total markets, by definition, allocates the majority of the fund to the largest companies. The problem with this is that the largest companies in the market have a strong tendency to underperform the market going forward. That's why I think that equal-weighting or even reverse-weighting can make more sense.
I would say that market-cap weighting works well enough. Hard to outperform such an index even with those perceived weaknesses.

Don't have a quarrel with equal weighted indexes. It is an approach that seems to have worked. I often have suggested small and small/value tilting as 100 stocks are just over 50% of the Total Market. Even US Total Stock Market isn't as diversified as we think, it is pretty much a mega-cap index. However, I can think of many dumber things than putting your money in the most successful 100 companies in America.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by willthrill81 » Sun May 06, 2018 5:00 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 4:38 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 2:48 pm

Hint: The S&P Indexes do a good job filtering out the junk. The US Total Stock Market Index has just over 50% of its market capitalization in the largest 100 companies. So market-cap weighting does its part too, though imperfectly, to filter out the junk.
Market-cap weighting of large caps or total markets, by definition, allocates the majority of the fund to the largest companies. The problem with this is that the largest companies in the market have a strong tendency to underperform the market going forward. That's why I think that equal-weighting or even reverse-weighting can make more sense.
I would say that market-cap weighting works well enough. Hard to outperform such an index even with those perceived weaknesses.

Don't have a quarrel with equal weighted indexes. It is an approach that seems to have worked. I often have suggested small and small/value tilting as 100 stocks are just over 50% of the Total Market. Even US Total Stock Market isn't as diversified as we think, it is pretty much a mega-cap index. However, I can think of many dumber things than putting your money in the most successful 100 companies in America.
Certainly cap-weighting is acceptable, but the data seem to be clear that it has not been optimal. For instance, Guggenheim's equal-weighted S&P 500 fund has outperformed Vanguard's market cap-weighted fund by nearly 1% annually since 2004, and this outperformance has been fairly consistent across the years.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

david1082b
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by david1082b » Sun May 06, 2018 5:06 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
Market-cap weighting of large caps or total markets, by definition, allocates the majority of the fund to the largest companies. The problem with this is that the largest companies in the market have a strong tendency to underperform the market going forward. That's why I think that equal-weighting or even reverse-weighting can make more sense.
You can just get a mid-cap index. The equal-weight S&P small-cap 600 ETF $EWSC has underperformed its market-cap weight equivalent pretty badly since it started in 2010: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Reverse-weighting looks like it would have been an underperformer since 2010, since it would have gone for overweighting the smallest stocks severely, and the equal-weight small-cap 600 overweights the smaller small-caps too. I guess equal-weighting has been popular since the equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the normal S&P 500 by a bit over certain stretches of time since 2006 or so. Well it was the mid-caps wot done it.

None of this means that the equal-weight small-cap 600 can't outperform in future of course. Micro-caps might steal the day in the next 20 years, who knows.

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willthrill81
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by willthrill81 » Sun May 06, 2018 5:10 pm

david1082b wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 5:06 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
Market-cap weighting of large caps or total markets, by definition, allocates the majority of the fund to the largest companies. The problem with this is that the largest companies in the market have a strong tendency to underperform the market going forward. That's why I think that equal-weighting or even reverse-weighting can make more sense.
You can just get a mid-cap index. The equal-weight S&P small-cap 600 ETF $EWSC has underperformed its market-cap weight equivalent pretty badly since it started in 2010: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Reverse-weighting looks like it would have been an underperformer since 2010, since it would have gone for overweighting the smallest stocks severely, and the equal-weight small-cap 600 overweights the smaller small-caps too. I guess equal-weighting has been popular since the equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the normal S&P 500 by a bit over certain stretches of time since 2006 or so. Well it was the mid-caps wot done it.

None of this means that the equal-weight small-cap 600 can't outperform in future of course. Micro-caps might steal the day in the next 20 years, who knows.
Equal-weighting and reverse-weighting don't seem to have an intuitive advantage in the mid-cap and small-cap space because they are both already avoiding the largest companies in the market (i.e. S&P 500).

Keep in mind that an equal-weighted S&P 500 fund is not investing in mid-caps. Mid-caps are not included in the S&P 500; they are below it in terms of market cap.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

drk
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by drk » Sun May 06, 2018 5:27 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
In other words, holding just those aforementioned large-cap names, or a even a heavy concentration of those stocks in a portfolio, will eventually lead to underperformance, compared against a broader and more diversified investment basket, research has found.

On average, about seven of the 10 largest companies by market value in the S&P 500 underperformed their industry over the following decade by about 7 percentage points, based on research going back to 1997, according WSJ Market Data Group.

Arnott produced similar results by analyzing stock returns globally over six decades in a 2012 study, titled “Too big to succeed.”


“We found that two-thirds of the largest companies in the world underperformed their own sector over the ensuing 10 years—by an average 4.70% a year, Arnott said in a recent interview with MarketWatch.
This doesn't say what it intends to say. The following phrases tell me nothing about the overall performance of large companies:
  • "about seven of the 10 largest [...] underperformed [...] by about 7 percentage points"
  • "two-thirds of the largest companies [...] underperformed their own sector [...] by an average 4.70% a year"
That information would be really helpful if I could pick out which ones would underperform. Sadly, I cannot.
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm
The persistent outperformance of today’s largest tech companies isn’t sustainable in the long run, according to Arnott.

“Future success of these companies seems assured in the same way future success of tech companies in 2000 seemed assured. Back then, each had a compelling story. But of the 10 largest tech companies two failed and none outperformed the S&P 500 over the following 18 years,” Arnott explained.
This just seems like a guess based on little more than wishful thinking. I would offer that there is an if-you-squint-just-right similarity between the Dot-Com Bubble and now, but there really isn't. The bubble was concentrated in companies with no real hope of profitability. The ones that did were commodities companies producing chips, memory, etc.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sun May 06, 2018 7:12 pm

It would be helpful if the OP would post a comment explaining the purpose of the original post. Is OP recommending we sell our stock mutual funds and put all our money in Treasury bills? Is this what OP has done with their own portfolio?

drk
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by drk » Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 7:12 pm
It would be helpful if the OP would post a comment explaining the purpose of the original post. Is OP recommending we sell our stock mutual funds and put all our money in Treasury bills? Is this what OP has done with their own portfolio?
The post is an argument in favor of buying the market rather than buying individual stocks. It could have been phrased better.

CULater
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Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

Post by CULater » Sun May 06, 2018 10:32 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 7:12 pm
It would be helpful if the OP would post a comment explaining the purpose of the original post. Is OP recommending we sell our stock mutual funds and put all our money in Treasury bills? Is this what OP has done with their own portfolio?
Just enjoy your wine and don't ask how it was made.
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

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