A thought exercise
A thought exercise
Hi,
As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...
Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...
Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
Nescio
Re: A thought exercise
Would you feel differently if you would have been up 5% or 10% by cashing out? I also have fun with pretend portfolios to see what would have happened, but I never change course on the real thing.
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” |
— Warren Buffett
Re: A thought exercise
After 16 consecutive months of portfolio increases, 2 and maybe 3 months of negative returns is something "new" and "strange".
You know you are "there" when you don't even have to do the thought exercises.
You know you are "there" when you don't even have to do the thought exercises.
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Re: A thought exercise
No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
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Re: A thought exercise
Short term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
- oldcomputerguy
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Re: A thought exercise
Not yet, at least not in the U.S.sunshine18 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 amShort term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
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- tennisplyr
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Re: A thought exercise
I beg to differ, we do know 2 things. The market will go up and the market will go down....we just don't when when.
“Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.” -Retired 13 years 😀
Re: A thought exercise
If for whatever reason you want to play these simulation games the other half of the trick is to time when to get back in.bampf wrote: ↑Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:51 pm Hi,
As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...
Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
So a suggestion would be to stay tuned to the market each day and then simulate what you would do in future days/weeks/months and years.
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Re: A thought exercise
Here is another thought excercise:
Assume you bought a few broadly diversified stock and bond index funds and stopped looking at your portfolio every day of every week of every month. Instead, you forgot about the account and didn’t look at it for 10 years. Would you be further ahead?
Assume you bought a few broadly diversified stock and bond index funds and stopped looking at your portfolio every day of every week of every month. Instead, you forgot about the account and didn’t look at it for 10 years. Would you be further ahead?
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
Re: A thought exercise
That sounds an awful lot like work. I think I will keep pounding money into my portfolio and forget about it until I need it....smitcat wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:31 amIf for whatever reason you want to play these simulation games the other half of the trick is to time when to get back in.bampf wrote: ↑Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:51 pm Hi,
As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...
Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
So a suggestion would be to stay tuned to the market each day and then simulate what you would do in future days/weeks/months and years.
Nescio
Re: A thought exercise
Can't quite do that as I am building the portfolio to hit some certain trigger numbers. (FIRE and all that.) But, yes, your point is well noted in that if I just let it ride, in 10 years I should be much better off. I'm still gonna look. And chew on it. But, I don't really do much but look... And add to it.Rick Ferri wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:52 am Here is another thought excercise:
Assume you bought a few broadly diversified stock and bond index funds and stopped looking at your portfolio every day of every week of every month. Instead, you forgot about the account and didn’t look at it for 10 years. Would you be further ahead?
Nescio
Re: A thought exercise
On April 10th of 2018 the price of VTI was $136. Today it is $146. Nobody knows nothing. Let it ride....
Nescio
Re: A thought exercise
As long as it recovers before the money is needed.sunshine18 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 amShort term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle