A thought exercise

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bampf
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A thought exercise

Post by bampf »

Hi,

As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...

Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
Nescio
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dwickenh
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by dwickenh »

Would you feel differently if you would have been up 5% or 10% by cashing out? I also have fun with pretend portfolios to see what would have happened, but I never change course on the real thing.
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett
bloom2708
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by bloom2708 »

After 16 consecutive months of portfolio increases, 2 and maybe 3 months of negative returns is something "new" and "strange".

You know you are "there" when you don't even have to do the thought exercises. :o
sunshine18
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by sunshine18 »

No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
The Wizard
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by The Wizard »

sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
... except when it doesn't...
Attempted new signature...
sunshine18
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by sunshine18 »

The Wizard wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:24 am
sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
... except when it doesn't...
Short term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
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oldcomputerguy
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by oldcomputerguy »

sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 am
The Wizard wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:24 am
sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
... except when it doesn't...
Short term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
Not yet, at least not in the U.S.
There is only one success - to be able to spend your life in your own way. (Christopher Morley)
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tennisplyr
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by tennisplyr »

I beg to differ, we do know 2 things. The market will go up and the market will go down....we just don't when when.
“Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.” -Retired 13 years 😀
smitcat
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by smitcat »

bampf wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:51 pm Hi,

As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...

Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
If for whatever reason you want to play these simulation games the other half of the trick is to time when to get back in.
So a suggestion would be to stay tuned to the market each day and then simulate what you would do in future days/weeks/months and years.
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Rick Ferri
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by Rick Ferri »

Here is another thought excercise:

Assume you bought a few broadly diversified stock and bond index funds and stopped looking at your portfolio every day of every week of every month. Instead, you forgot about the account and didn’t look at it for 10 years. Would you be further ahead?
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
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bampf
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by bampf »

smitcat wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:31 am
bampf wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:51 pm Hi,

As a thought exercise I decided to liquidate my portfolio late last week. Given the political uncertainty, jitters in the market, and risk of a global trade war I decided to take some money off the table. Recall this was a thought exercise, so I didn't actually do anything. I did write down what I would have had if I liquidated everything. Watching the market bounce up and down in the last couple of days is kind of fun. This last week reinforces "no one knows nothing" and in the absence of knowledge one should hold the course...

Keep calm and sail on. I would have been about down 5% from where I am now if I had sold. No one knows nothing...
If for whatever reason you want to play these simulation games the other half of the trick is to time when to get back in.
So a suggestion would be to stay tuned to the market each day and then simulate what you would do in future days/weeks/months and years.
That sounds an awful lot like work. I think I will keep pounding money into my portfolio and forget about it until I need it....
Nescio
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bampf
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by bampf »

Rick Ferri wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:52 am Here is another thought excercise:

Assume you bought a few broadly diversified stock and bond index funds and stopped looking at your portfolio every day of every week of every month. Instead, you forgot about the account and didn’t look at it for 10 years. Would you be further ahead?
Can't quite do that as I am building the portfolio to hit some certain trigger numbers. (FIRE and all that.) But, yes, your point is well noted in that if I just let it ride, in 10 years I should be much better off. I'm still gonna look. And chew on it. But, I don't really do much but look... And add to it.
Nescio
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bampf
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by bampf »

On April 10th of 2018 the price of VTI was $136. Today it is $146. Nobody knows nothing. Let it ride....
Nescio
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Re: A thought exercise

Post by Fallible »

sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 am
The Wizard wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:24 am
sunshine18 wrote: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
... except when it doesn't...
Short term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
As long as it recovers before the money is needed.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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