Are we in bear territory?

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Keepcalm
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Are we in bear territory?

Post by Keepcalm » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm

How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now?

Thanks.

neilpilot
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by neilpilot » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:59 pm

We've had many days of over 100 point drops, so I doubt a 20 point drop is the criteria.

The traditional definition of a bear market occurs when prices drop 20 percent or more from their 52-week high.

magicrat
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by magicrat » Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:13 pm

I did a quick check and the S&P500 is down about 10% from the late-January highs. So, we're 10 percentage points from a 20% drop.

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munemaker
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by munemaker » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:00 pm

Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now?

Thanks.
No, we are not in bear territory. Not even close.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:02 pm

munemaker wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:00 pm
Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now?

Thanks.
No, we are not in bear territory. Not even close.
Just about halfway.

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DanMahowny
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:06 pm

Not yet. But it won't take much longer.

We had a great run, made lots of money, but it's over.

DOW 16,000
Funding secured

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:09 pm

The bull party can't go on forever. Call a Uber and go home.

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LadyGeek
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:09 pm

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (market trending).
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BanquetBeer
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by BanquetBeer » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:12 pm

We had a good run and fundamentals are still strong. Lots of political drama with trade wars seem to be the anchor. We have opportunity to go either way depending on how this shakes out. I don’t know the future - seems like a coin flip scenario.

Freefun
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Freefun » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:29 pm

The bear market will start June 13 2018 at 1:12PM Eastern time (I provide the time for day traders) and will end 22 months later.

As you write this down, please note that I've been wrong on individual stock trades 50%-80% of the time and this is why I decided to follow this forum's principles.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

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Peter Foley
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Peter Foley » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:43 pm

Historically (traditionally?) investors have looked at new highs or lows to predict a longer trend. So if the next drop were to a lower level than the earlier drops (breaking past the so called support level) we could be in for a bear market. Then again, maybe not. IMHO you only really know when you can see the trend from a historical perspective. By then it is too late.

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tadamsmar
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:45 pm

Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now?

Thanks.
We are not in bear territory according to the definitions that I find.

It's a 20% drop, not a 20 point drop.

There is no "within" time-period.

The definitions are vague, but they seem to imply that it's a bear market if it does not recover in 2 months.

We are about 10% down on the SP500. The downturn has exceeded 2 months.

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Carlos Danger
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Carlos Danger » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:49 pm

Yes.

No.

Maybe so.

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DaftInvestor
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by DaftInvestor » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:50 pm

Not in Bear or Bull territory this year. Its Bunny time - hop up and down.

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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by moshe » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:55 pm

Freefun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:29 pm
The bear market will start June 13 2018 at 1:12PM Eastern time (I provide the time for day traders) and will end 22 months later.

As you write this down, please note that I've been wrong on individual stock trades 50%-80% of the time and this is why I decided to follow this forum's principles.
This. :beer
My money has no emotions. ~Moshe | | I'm the world's greatest expert on my own opinion. ~Bruce Williams

Mr.BB
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Mr.BB » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:55 pm

10% correction usually happen once a year. Last one was Jan/Feb in 2016. we have been on a 2 year tear since then and I think 2011 was the last one before that. Usually you get a 5% correction a couple time a year.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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cfs
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by cfs » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:58 pm

We are not in bear territory, but it is possible that we are entering Denial Territory. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs

p.s. You just don't want to be out of this market for ONE day !
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

lostdog
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by lostdog » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:32 pm

I don't know.

retiredjg
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by retiredjg » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:39 pm

I'm in bear territory. Have to take the bird feeders down in the spring and summer so they don't get destroyed.

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munemaker
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by munemaker » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:42 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:06 pm
... it's over.
No one knows nuttin'. Stay the course.

H-Town
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by H-Town » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:52 pm

Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now?

Thanks.
Why do you want to know? Are you going to do anything differently if we are or we are not in bear territory?

TravelforFun
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm

Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?

TravelforFun

feh
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by feh » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:16 pm

TravelforFun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm
Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?
The S&P 500 returned 19% last year, and it's down 2.5% so far this year.

I would think recent retirees should be quite happy.

CppCoder
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by CppCoder » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:17 pm

I don't think I'm in bear territory, but I'm told an alligator shows up on the golf courses every now and again.

airshow
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by airshow » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:01 pm

I sold all my funds and am now buying antiques. :shock: :mrgreen:

Iliketoridemybike
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Iliketoridemybike » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:05 pm

TravelforFun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm
Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?

TravelforFun
Not if they have sufficient short term funds.

NYCwriter
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:29 pm

We're not. Look at the charts! Still, there's been a lot more volatility than I remember in the past. I started doing my regular small adds on down days.

Glockenspiel
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Glockenspiel » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:16 pm

airshow wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:01 pm
I sold all my funds and am now buying antiques. :shock: :mrgreen:
I did actually just read a newspaper article about how inexpensive antiques are nowadays. They’re pretty much going for 80% off what they were being sold for about 10-15 years ago.

Bacchus01
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:21 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:16 pm
airshow wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:01 pm
I sold all my funds and am now buying antiques. :shock: :mrgreen:
I did actually just read a newspaper article about how inexpensive antiques are nowadays. They’re pretty much going for 80% off what they were being sold for about 10-15 years ago.

I see stuff getting dumped on Craigslist or Facebook for 1/10th what you would have gotten 15 years ago. No one wants the clutter

jalbert
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by jalbert » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:03 am

A better way to word the question is “Were we in bear territory?” A 20% drop as an agreed upon definition of a bear market is a statement about the near past history of the market, not a statement about where the market is at the present or where it will go in the near future.
Risk is not a guarantor of return.

CurlyDave
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by CurlyDave » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:44 am

feh wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:16 pm
TravelforFun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm
Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?
The S&P 500 returned 19% last year, and it's down 2.5% so far this year.

I would think recent retirees should be quite happy.
I retired in 2007. DW retired in ~2012.

We are happy. Portfolio is off its all-time high which was in early 2018, but is still well above year end 2016 and any previous years.

We also have rental real estate. Cash flow is at an all time high.

Who is old enough to remember "What, me worry?"

best2u
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by best2u » Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:08 am

TravelforFun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm
Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?

TravelforFun
I retired in December of 17. Missed going out at the high by one month (smile). We expect to see some continued choppy markets this year. Not at all atypical in a mid term election year. Not anticipating a bear market and I may add to my stock holdings later this year, as I expect to see another new all time high within 12 to 18 months. If I am wrong and the market tanks I will ride it out as I am not over extended with my current stock holdings.

onourway
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by onourway » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:58 am

We're anxious when the market is high. We're anxious when the market is low.

We should be in the goldilocks zone.

:D

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:42 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:44 am
Who is old enough to remember "What, me worry?"
I am. :happy


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Veiled
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Veiled » Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:58 am

retiredjg wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:39 pm
I'm in bear territory. Have to take the bird feeders down in the spring and summer so they don't get destroyed.
:mrgreen: That was amazing. My favorite thing about this forum is everyone's very appropriate levity regarding the market's ups and downs. It illustrates that this investment philosophy works.

Edited also to add:
Glockenspiel wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:16 pm
airshow wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:01 pm
I sold all my funds and am now buying antiques. :shock: :mrgreen:
I did actually just read a newspaper article about how inexpensive antiques are nowadays. They’re pretty much going for 80% off what they were being sold for about 10-15 years ago.
None of the millenials want "old brown furniture," I guess.
Pardon me as I read these one hundred and fifty-seven SP vs LLC vs Scorp threads...

peppers
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by peppers » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:06 am

If you live near Soldier Field in Chicago....then yeah...
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by ReformedSpender » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:34 am

Gold might be trying to tell us all something or maybe its a nothing burger. Time will tell

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Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Dale_G
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Dale_G » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:54 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:39 pm
I'm in bear territory. Have to take the bird feeders down in the spring and summer so they don't get destroyed.
You must be up north retiredjg. Around here the bears do not hibernate, so bird feeders are at risk all year long. The market bears don't hibernate either. I've learned to live with the bears - whether at the bird feeders or the markets.

Dale
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wrongfunds
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by wrongfunds » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:34 am
Gold might be trying to tell us all something or maybe its a nothing burger. Time will tell

Image
Do people seriously actually get actionable information from that chart? Do these people have STEM background?

marcopolo
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by marcopolo » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:19 pm

best2u wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:08 am
TravelforFun wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:59 pm
Would like to know what those who retired within the last couple of years think. Is this the sequence-of-return risk retirees are fearful of?

TravelforFun
I retired in December of 17. Missed going out at the high by one month (smile). We expect to see some continued choppy markets this year. Not at all atypical in a mid term election year. Not anticipating a bear market and I may add to my stock holdings later this year, as I expect to see another new all time high within 12 to 18 months. If I am wrong and the market tanks I will ride it out as I am not over extended with my current stock holdings.
I signed the paperwork on my separation agreement with employer on January 26th, which was the near term (maybe longer term?) peak of the market. Given the recent sustained run-up and valuations, I kind of a expected a poor sequence of returns. Maybe its getting started even sooner than i expected; i would not characterize the recent volatility as anything of consequence, yet. I am mentally, and hopefully financially, prepared for a poor sequence, assuming there are modest returns on the other side.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

retiredjg
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by retiredjg » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:00 am

Dale_G wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:54 pm
You must be up north retiredjg. Around here the bears do not hibernate, so bird feeders are at risk all year long. The market bears don't hibernate either. I've learned to live with the bears - whether at the bird feeders or the markets.
"Half-back" territory :happy

MrPotatoHead
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by MrPotatoHead » Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:59 pm

If so, prepare all food a distance from where you sleep at nights, store all food in metal animal proof containers away from the sleeping area.

Glockenspiel
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by Glockenspiel » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:36 am

Veiled wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:58 am
None of the millenials want "old brown furniture," I guess.
Lol. In my experience as an "older millennial, this is mostly true. We inherited a china hutch that my wife's grandfather built. It's not an antique, but could classify as "old brown furniture". I was fine leaving it brown, but my wife (also an older millennial) basically put it on my list of things to do to paint it white. So now we have a white painted china hutch which we store wine glasses, some crystal we got at our wedding, and some "Fostoria" glassware that we inherited from another grandparent.

drk
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by drk » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:02 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 pm
Do people seriously actually get actionable information from that chart? Do these people have STEM background?
No, hence the "might be" and the "maybe".

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:04 pm

drk wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:02 am
wrongfunds wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 pm
Do people seriously actually get actionable information from that chart? Do these people have STEM background?
No, hence the "might be" and the "maybe".
I would tend to disagree with your comment. Nothing is a guarantee but there are possibilities, hence the language utilized. Charts are constructive in their own right, more so now than before with increased algorithmic investing imo.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

KarenC
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by KarenC » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:29 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:34 am
Gold might be trying to tell us all something or maybe its a nothing burger. Time will tell

Image
Do people seriously actually get actionable information from that chart? Do these people have STEM background?
I can see a blue line and a sort of amber line, but I don't see any red lines. I think the chart would definitely be more actionable if it had at least one red line. (There's some red numbers, so that helps.)
"How much you know is less important than how clearly you understand where the borders of your ignorance begin." — Jason Zweig

rgs92
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by rgs92 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:41 pm

I think the OP was referring to a 20% drop, not 20 points on any particular average.
Yep, 20-30% drops are normal and probably healthy in the long run for anyone building a portfolio over time.
And it's even conceivably healthy for someone withdrawing money over time since the reinvested dividends (and bond interest payments) and rebalancing purchase are buying low.

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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:03 pm

KarenC wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:29 pm
...I can see a blue line and a sort of amber line, but I don't see any red lines. I think the chart would definitely be more actionable if it had at least one red line. (There's some red numbers, so that helps.)
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JoMoney
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by JoMoney » Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:14 pm

cfs wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:58 pm
We are not in bear territory, but it is possible that we are entering Denial Territory. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs

p.s. You just don't want to be out of this market for ONE day !
'Denial Territory' ? I think we're somewhere between 'Excitement' and 'Thrill' ... same relative position, just opposite direction of the trend
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cfs
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Re: Are we in bear territory?

Post by cfs » Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:24 pm

Thank you Mister JM, always good to see that interesting chart. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs

p.s. You just don't want to be out of this market for ONE day!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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