Best longevity calculator?

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jefmafnl
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Best longevity calculator?

Post by jefmafnl »

What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?

Thanks.

J
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JoeRetire
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by JoeRetire »

jefmafnl wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:57 am What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?
How could anyone currently alive possibly gauge accuracy?

My favorite today is http://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/ since it predicts I'll live to 96.
My least favorite today is https://www.ssa.gov/oact/population/longevity.html since it tells me I'm a goner at 83.9.

Still, none of them asked about the cancer I happen to have. Seems like that might matter a little?
Last edited by JoeRetire on Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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stan1
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by stan1 »

You mean a site that would ask for very detailed health information on every medical ailment you might have ever had, family history, your past and current alcohol, cigarette,and drug consumption, your weight, your diet, your exercise habits, any high risk activities you participate in, sexual contacts? All of that and more might play into an algorithm that would give you a number within 5 years of what you'd probably estimate yourself -- but think of how much someone could make selling that data!
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Silk McCue »

jefmafnl wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:57 am What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?

Thanks.

J
Please provide me with your full name as it appears on your birth certificate, your date of birth, your full social security number, and the city and state in which you were born. I already have a time travel event scheduled for later in the week to review my financial plan based on what I learn there. As a favor to a fellow boglehead I will research your obituary and report back to you.

I will only do this on the condition that you then run all available longevity calculators to document the results and provide a tabulated report back to us so that we will have empirical evidence of which of those calculators truly are the best.

No need to thank me.

Cheers
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by nisiprius »

In my opinion, people shouldn't bother with these things. The differences in average life expectancy you get from these calculators, as you vary your assumptions, is relatively small, while the actual uncertainty of life expectancy--the dispersion, the standard deviation--is relatively large.

It's not really a number you can or should use for planning. It just leads to a false sense of precision.

These statistics are very useful if you are, in fact, dealing with a large group of people and their averages. They are good for setting public policy. They are good for insurance companies to know in order to figure out what premium to charge. They are good for the Social Security administration to know. But one person, one number? I don't think so.

For example, consider one of the single biggest and most reliable determinants of life expectancy: sex. We are told over and over again that women live longer, and any casual visit to a nursing home will show that this is true.

Based on the Social Security Actuarial Life Table, starting from a population of 100,000 at age 65, these are the number of men and women who will live to a particular age. The difference between men and women is obvious enough. But consider, regardless of sex, just how widely spread the range of ages is.

Image

For either sex, without calculating any exact numbers, just look at the chart. It is pretty darned clear that in a population of 100,000, a lot of people, too many to ignore, enough to think about in planning, are not going to reach age 75. And it is also clear that a lot of people are going to make it past age 90 or 95. It's not a long shot.

Yes, once you get up to age 100, you can see that it's quite a long shot for men, and just ordinary "good luck" for women.

But think about that. You might need to finance ten years in retirement, you might need to finance thirty. That's a factor of three in planning uncertainty.

There may be every reason in the world to eat right and keep fit, to push your personal distribution to the right, but the general uncertainty of life span is just much larger than any difference you can make through lifestyle choice.

And to anticipate the next question, no, it doesn't help you much to know how long Aunt Vera lived. You don't really know whether or not you have "good longevity genes." In the Framingham study, the correlation of life span between parents and children was only about 7%.

Life is uncertain. Plan on ten to thirty years in retirement, maybe ten to forty to be on the safe side (especially for women), but don't think you can get much actionable information out of adding a few years for education or subtracting a few years for body shape.

(And that's not even getting into questions of "correlation or causation?" for supposed longevity factors... or whether the articles and calculators are all truly disinterested, or whether some actually propaganda whose point is to show the importanceone factor they want to "sell" to you).
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Watty
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Watty »

Being married I like this super simple one since it gives the odds of the either of us living a certain number of years.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... ement-tool
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by skepticalobserver »

JoeRetire wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 am My favorite today is http://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/ since it predicts I'll live to 96.
Says 101!!. Love, love this calculator. Signing up for an immediate annuity today! or maybe not.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by tfb »

jefmafnl wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:57 am What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?
http://www.longevityillustrator.org/

From Society of Actuaries and American Academy of Actuaries, people who know this stuff.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AlohaJoe »

I also think the longevity illustrator is better than any of the other options listed so far.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by willthrill81 »

That one makes more sense to me than the SSA's calculator, which only examines the impact of gender. Ethnicity, health, tobacco use, etc. all have a known and significant impact on longevity.

Personally, I think that there can be some value in using these calculators. For instance, if I just use an average life expectancy for males, I might think that I'm not likely to live past 85, which would translate into a 30-35 year retirement. But several of the longevity calculators say that there is a 50% probability that I'll live past age ~94, based on the above factors. That means that I'd better plan for a very long retirement, at least 40 years and very possibly 50.

So if using these calculators leads you to an otherwise more conservative (i.e. longer lifespan) than you were planning for, I think that that can be prudent.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Hyperborea »

Beyond the one you use, think about using the age estimate out to the 90th percentile (conversely 10% chance of making it). As a male in my early 50's, I've got a median expected lifespan of 25 years left (half of men my age go before and half after) but a 90th percentile life expectancy of almost 40 years. If you are planning on a retirement of 25 years and instead make it to 40 then I sure wouldn't want to do the last 15 years broke. If you are in a partnership use joint life expectancy to the 90th percentile (again conversely 10% chance that one of the couple makes it to that age).
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by WanderingDoc »

stan1 wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:54 am You mean a site that would ask for very detailed health information on every medical ailment you might have ever had, family history, your past and current alcohol, cigarette,and drug consumption, your weight, your diet, your exercise habits, any high risk activities you participate in, sexual contacts? All of that and more might play into an algorithm that would give you a number within 5 years of what you'd probably estimate yourself -- but think of how much someone could make selling that data!
More sexual contact = better health in more than one respect, lower risk of prostate cancer, and potentially longer lifespan. :beer
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by dbw »

The way I think about this issue, Life Expectancy isn't the issue.
Given the forum, the question is how long do i need to plan to fund my retirement? Life Expectancy is the expected (i.e. 50/50 ) lifetime. We don't want a 50% chance of being without funds, at say 85, so I suggest that you need to think about the probability you are comfortable with.
For me it was 5% probability of retirement funds running out - a 1 in 20 chance. That meant in practice (using nisiprius data as example) that I had to assume I may live to 95, though i greatly doubt it. But I would rather leave my wife unspent money than run short on the way.
Just my perspective. The question is which error do you want - to leave unspent money or run short. It is impossible to predict.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by JoeRetire »

AlohaJoe wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:56 am I also think the longevity illustrator is better than any of the other options listed so far.
Better in what way?

It's trivially easy to use, requires almost no input, and doesn't force you to create an account.
On the other hand, it takes almost nothing into account that could individually affect your specific longevity other than gender and smoking.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by CurlyDave »

Looking at the life expectancy tables/calculators, I am seeing a hidden flaw in most of the retirement calculators and plans I see.

For the vast majority of couples there will only be one long term survivor. This has serious implications for spending patterns. Does one person need only half as much as two? Well, no. But there is a lower need.

Only half the medical, certainly lower transportation (DW and I each have a car). Housing expenses can be lower, not by half, but certainly 75% is a good estimate.

Has anyone seen a withdrawal plan that accommodates a substantial lowering of spending at some point in the sequence?
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:41 am For the vast majority of couples there will only be one long term survivor. This has serious implications for spending patterns. Does one person need only half as much as two? Well, no. But there is a lower need.
This is very true. And it also has implications for income: half the SS, survivor benefits, and so on.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:41 amOnly half the medical, certainly lower transportation (DW and I each have a car). Housing expenses can be lower, not by half, but certainly 75% is a good estimate.
It's going to be very dependent on the couple and their situation. If they have only one car then nothing changes. If the survivor doesn't plan on moving then there's no savings on housing except for a tiny amount of utilities. Medical might be cheaper but if there's only one then there is more need for a caregiver to be potentially hired because the spouse could have done some of the light duty items. Travel isn't much cheaper (single room whether one or two) and might be more expensive as the remaining spouse might go on group tours for the company. Tasks that one of the couple would do have to be done by the remaining partner or potentially hired out. Lots of items don't change.

On top of the savings possibly not being that great, what you've got to deal with is that they are probabilistic. You have no guarantees of one of you dying early and saving the other some money. You need to plan for the worst case and financially that is both of you surviving for a long time.
MP123 wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:01 pm This is very true. And it also has implications for income: half the SS, survivor benefits, and so on.
Depending on the source of the income and how much remains the tax rate may go up (MFJ to Single) meaning that less of the income is left over.
It’s not just that facts don’t seem to matter anymore. It’s that it doesn’t seem to matter that facts don’t matter.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by JoeRetire »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:41 amHas anyone seen a withdrawal plan that accommodates a substantial lowering of spending at some point in the sequence?
My plan handles the case where I die first and also the case where my wife dies first. [spoiler alert: we are fine in either case]
That said, we don't expect our spending to go down all that substantially. If it does, that's okay too.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by new2bogle »

The links above predict I will live within 2 years of 3 out 4 of my dead grandparents (1 still alive and ticking away in her 90s!), which is ~87. So maybe these calculators really are up to something...
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AlohaJoe »

JoeRetire wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:30 am
AlohaJoe wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:56 am I also think the longevity illustrator is better than any of the other options listed so far.
Better in what way?

It's trivially easy to use, requires almost no input, and doesn't force you to create an account.
On the other hand, it takes almost nothing into account that could individually affect your specific longevity other than gender and smoking.
The SOA tables include selection bias and life extension modifications which none of the other sources do. Those outweigh the other individual factors mentioned.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by nisiprius »

Now tell me--because in fact the SOA site gives no actual guidance on this--how you decide whether your health is "poor," "average," or "excellent?" That's the difference between Reuben having a 50% chance of living 23 years or 18 years.

Image
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

jefmafnl wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:57 am What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?
J:
As the above replies suggest, it is impossible to know how long we live and therefore how much we need to save.

Our solution was to purchase Single Premium Immediate Annuities near our 80th birthdays. This type annuity (simple and with very competitive premiums) is issued by insurance companies that use the money saved from those who die early (and don't need the money) to pay those who die later and do need the money (a neat idea).

My wife for 62 years died four years ago. It is comforting to know that I will have income whatever my "longevity."

Best wishes.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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My posting name is not a reference to a movie or a sly play on my initials. It was a diagnosis close to the time that I joined the forum about ten years ago. I'm fortunate that my defined benefit pension will provide for my wife after I'm gone. I must admit that I love beating the calculated odds every day.

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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Dead Man Walking wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:18 pm My posting name is not a reference to a movie or a sly play on my initials. It was a diagnosis close to the time that I joined the forum about ten years ago. I'm fortunate that my defined benefit pension will provide for my wife after I'm gone. I must admit that I love beating the calculated odds every day.

DMW
Dead Man Walking:

I know your feelings. I have survived four types of cancer and am now undergoing treatment for a fifth type (bone cancer).

Learning and helping others on the Bogleheads Forum may have helped our longevity.

Best wishes

Taylor
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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JoeRetire wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 am
jefmafnl wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:57 am What is your favorite (most accurate :) ) longevity calculator on the Internet?
How could anyone currently alive possibly gauge accuracy?
My favorite today is http://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/ since it predicts I'll live to 96.
My least favorite today is https://www.ssa.gov/oact/population/longevity.html since it tells me I'm a goner at 83.9.
Still, none of them asked about the cancer I happen to have. Seems like that might matter a little?
Mine were 102 and 86. The SSA one does not take lifestyle into account - just sex and current age.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by dm200 »

new2bogle wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:48 pm The links above predict I will live within 2 years of 3 out 4 of my dead grandparents (1 still alive and ticking away in her 90s!), which is ~87. So maybe these calculators really are up to something...
My grandparents died at about ages 83, 87, 95 and 95
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by dm200 »

The Spanish Flu "pandemic": In the first year of the pandemic, life expectancy in the United States dropped by about 12 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by JoeRetire »

AlohaJoe wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:52 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:30 am
AlohaJoe wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:56 am I also think the longevity illustrator is better than any of the other options listed so far.
Better in what way?

It's trivially easy to use, requires almost no input, and doesn't force you to create an account.
On the other hand, it takes almost nothing into account that could individually affect your specific longevity other than gender and smoking.
The SOA tables include selection bias and life extension modifications which none of the other sources do. Those outweigh the other individual factors mentioned.
I guess it depends on the intended use of the calculator.
To me, that one seems pretty much useless for an individual to use as the basis for retirement planning.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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Post by 2015 »

Having taken most of my life to learn how to truly live life, I'm really not concerned with its length anymore. Paradoxically, life has become more precious as fulfillment has deepened. OTOH, I'll take quality over quantity any day.

From a financial standpoint, isn't it prudent to just assume a 30-40 year retirement, anyway? Is a calculator needed to replace good common sense?
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by SmileyFace »

I tried all the calculators above - seem to be some differences in how they evaluate but appears I have a long life ahead of me. Luckily none of the calculators asked me about my cholesterol ;)
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AlphaLess »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:30 am In my opinion, people shouldn't bother with these things. The differences in average life expectancy you get from these calculators, as you vary your assumptions, is relatively small, while the actual uncertainty of life expectancy--the dispersion, the standard deviation--is relatively large.

It's not really a number you can or should use for planning. It just leads to a false sense of precision.

These statistics are very useful if you are, in fact, dealing with a large group of people and their averages. They are good for setting public policy. They are good for insurance companies to know in order to figure out what premium to charge. They are good for the Social Security administration to know. But one person, one number? I don't think so.

For example, consider one of the single biggest and most reliable determinants of life expectancy: sex. We are told over and over again that women live longer, and any casual visit to a nursing home will show that this is true.

Based on the Social Security Actuarial Life Table, starting from a population of 100,000 at age 65, these are the number of men and women who will live to a particular age. The difference between men and women is obvious enough. But consider, regardless of sex, just how widely spread the range of ages is.

Image

For either sex, without calculating any exact numbers, just look at the chart. It is pretty darned clear that in a population of 100,000, a lot of people, too many to ignore, enough to think about in planning, are not going to reach age 75. And it is also clear that a lot of people are going to make it past age 90 or 95. It's not a long shot.

Yes, once you get up to age 100, you can see that it's quite a long shot for men, and just ordinary "good luck" for women.

But think about that. You might need to finance ten years in retirement, you might need to finance thirty. That's a factor of three in planning uncertainty.

There may be every reason in the world to eat right and keep fit, to push your personal distribution to the right, but the general uncertainty of life span is just much larger than any difference you can make through lifestyle choice.

And to anticipate the next question, no, it doesn't help you much to know how long Aunt Vera lived. You don't really know whether or not you have "good longevity genes." In the Framingham study, the correlation of life span between parents and children was only about 7%.

Life is uncertain. Plan on ten to thirty years in retirement, maybe ten to forty to be on the safe side (especially for women), but don't think you can get much actionable information out of adding a few years for education or subtracting a few years for body shape.

(And that's not even getting into questions of "correlation or causation?" for supposed longevity factors... or whether the articles and calculators are all truly disinterested, or whether some actually propaganda whose point is to show the importanceone factor they want to "sell" to you).
I respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with this message, on the grounds that INFORMED adjustment to one's life expectancy can FAR exceed the variance (uncertainty).

Here are a few conditional variables:
- zip code you live in (living within 20 miles of a major metro center results in higher live expectancy due to better health-care),
- education (educated people live longer),
- income (more affluent people live longer, on average),
- current health indicators (weight, diabetes or not, high blood pressure or not, etc).

In some cases, that adjustment can be 10 years!

Now, add intentional, pro-active steps to live longer, and you can potentially gain another 10 years!
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

One of them said 95 for me. Let’s see, that would be 2062. Better get some of those EE bonds then, lol.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

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AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:11 pm One of them said 95 for me. Let’s see, that would be 2062. Better get some of those EE bonds then, lol.
When people talk about planning for a 30 year (or more) retirement, they aren’t kidding ……..
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Stinky wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:24 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:11 pm One of them said 95 for me. Let’s see, that would be 2062. Better get some of those EE bonds then, lol.
When people talk about planning for a 30 year (or more) retirement, they aren’t kidding ……..
I better keep doing yoga then and cut back on the coffee! Lol.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by Caduceus »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:30 am
For example, consider one of the single biggest and most reliable determinants of life expectancy: sex. We are told over and over again that women live longer, and any casual visit to a nursing home will show that this is true.
Was wondering if you know whether the research shows why women live longer than men? I'm curious how much of this is attributable to behavior (e.g. maybe men die more from violent deaths, from alcoholism, smoking, workplace accidents, etc.) or if this is more like a genetic thing - in other words, that women are just fundamentally supposed to live longer, independent of the types of behavioral differences men and women exhibit?

It would be nice to be immortal.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by willthrill81 »

AlphaLess wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:59 pm Now, add intentional, pro-active steps to live longer, and you can potentially gain another 10 years!
Daily flossing alone may add 6 years to your life. And no, I'm not offering medical advice, merely noting an observation.
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AlphaLess »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:09 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:59 pm Now, add intentional, pro-active steps to live longer, and you can potentially gain another 10 years!
Daily flossing alone may add 6 years to your life. And no, I'm not offering medical advice, merely noting an observation.
Great!
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Re: Best longevity calculator?

Post by AlphaLess »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:41 am Looking at the life expectancy tables/calculators, I am seeing a hidden flaw in most of the retirement calculators and plans I see.

For the vast majority of couples there will only be one long term survivor. This has serious implications for spending patterns. Does one person need only half as much as two? Well, no. But there is a lower need.

Only half the medical, certainly lower transportation (DW and I each have a car). Housing expenses can be lower, not by half, but certainly 75% is a good estimate.

Has anyone seen a withdrawal plan that accommodates a substantial lowering of spending at some point in the sequence?
Half of your argument is correct (will need less money, but not 50% less).

The other half is false. Deaths in couples are correlated. I.e., when one spouse dies, the chance of the other spouse dying soon is very high.

This is evident in statistics.
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