Invest in Tesla?

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4nursebee
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am

For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
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4nursebee
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:31 am

I am reading a lot at the teslamotorsclub forums today and found the charts at the following link interesting, an article that compares sales of different car makers.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/28/te ... echnica%29
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:02 pm

4nursebee wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am
For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
I am mostly off Tesla threads, but I have a few anecdata points I'd like to share:
1. My brother-in-law rented a Model 3 on a trip recently. I drove it. It is a wonderful car and peppy. I thought I'd miss the instrumentation of a regular car, but I did not.
2. A number of household workers (electrician, plumber, painter, etc.) have recently reacted very differently to seeing my Tesla in the garage than similar workers did in the past. They are considering the possibility of an EV in their own lives, Tesla or LEAF or Bolt or whatever. This is a change over the past few years. Until recently, I was considered an eccentric old man (which I plead guilty to, but not because of my view on electric cars), now they ask me loads of specific questions relating to how an EV or PHEV might fit into their use cases.
3. Tesla is working up a quote for me to install Tesla Powerwalls in my garage. My HVAC company is working up a quote for an electric boiler. We will not be "off the grid," but we will be resilient in the face of grid outages, to the point where we could possibly go off-grid at some point.
4.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by crystalbank » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:33 pm

They still sell a lot of cars and their revenue is growing quite remarkably. I don't think the current valuation is sustainable and will likely lead to correction. But I think Tesla as a company will survive and continue to grow.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Theoretical » Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:01 pm

4nursebee wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am
For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
I think the long term environmental consequences of the huge increase in lithium batteries remain to be seen and are likely underestimated.

slowrider
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by slowrider » Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:18 pm

Volatility estimates show that the price could get down to around $200 in the next couple months, and that calculation doesn't use bigger issues about what is going in the car market.

oragne lovre
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by oragne lovre » Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:25 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:33 am
oragne lovre wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:56 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:03 am
cj2018 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:57 pm


TSLA is valued as a tech business, not car business. Any comps with a car business like Ford or GM or Toyota alike is simply absurd. Yes, they currently produce cars but their main business is renewable energy and total domination in AI- based means of transportation.

Again, please don’t insult Tesla by comparing it to traditional car business like Ford, it’s not apple to Apple comparison
Is it so absurd? At the end of the day one has to ask where any putative profits may come from. As far as we can tell, it's going to be cars and perhaps to a lesser extent home batteries and the like. But their battery tech isn't all that unique, and they haven't done all that much with the solar city acquisition. What they are mostly selling are slick futuristic cars. So then, how is it different from Ford or GM other than specializing in EVs? This is simply a new product sold within an established business. That's very different from, say Amazon, which was originally an online bookseller but obviously had a much different business model than Barnes and Noble because the online nature allowed it to sell just about anything and also expand into non-retail services. It's not clear what Tesla can do that GM can't. Perhaps Musk is hiding an ace up his sleeve and there's some new direction the business is going in, but until we see that ace I simply don't see the justification for valuing Tesla as anything other than a car company.
As you pointed out, Amazon was initially an online bookseller and few people then could have imagined what Amazon would have expanded into other services as it does today. If you look at Tesla history, it initially starts out as a company for niche market of performance car, the Roadster. It has, however, expanded into battery manufacturing along with Panasonic, into power-storage business, into solar energy. Its CEO also has his hands on Space X that helped launch his original Roadster car into the orbit, on Boring company that has won Chicago bid to build a tunnel to alleviate traffic congestion surrounding Chicago O'Hare. Those are just some examples what Tesla CEO can do that GM cannot. Tesla, well connected to other sister companies, is not just in car business. Investors, who may be right or wrong, see it as a tech company.
Right, but spaceX and the boring company are different companies even if Musk is behind them. Tesla does not participate in the upside from those activities. Tesla started out as a company with one model, but that generally how car companies start out.
https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/tesla-se ... g-company/

I used to think that these companies were not conntected but Tesla technology and batteries may have other applications not well aware by non-technological investors.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:15 am

From Josh Wolfe. People like him, Jim Chanos, Steve Eisman are vocal shorts regarding Tesla. I think the points he makes in this little twitter thread apply mightily to some of the things I am reading on this board.
Josh co-founded Lux Capital to support scientists and entrepreneurs who pursue counter-conventional solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time in order to lead us into a brighter future. The more ambitious the project, the better—like, say, creating matter from light.

Josh is a Director at Shapeways, 3Scan, Lux Research and Kallyope and helped lead the firm’s investments in Planet, Echodyne, Clarifai and Authorea. He is a founding investor and board member with Bill Gates in Kymeta, making cutting-edge antennas for high-speed global satellite and space communications. Josh is a Westinghouse semi-finalist and published scientist.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1021 ... 21664.html
Many people would be better served w/a bit less 'singularity university' + a bit more 'accounting 101'

If bankruptcy occurs?
Shock will remind many that when people w/money meet people w/experience, the ones w/experience end up w/ the money + the ones w/money get experience
Roughly six weeks and 70 points ago. :greedy
kchico » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:19 am

Tesla is killing it lately. They are about to officially announced the Gigafactory in China and that they are making 5k Model 3's a week. The layoffs are certainly bullish and 35k version of the model is coming in 5 months. Great time to be a Tesla shareholder. :moneybag
Last edited by matjen on Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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alfaspider
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by alfaspider » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:32 am

oragne lovre wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:25 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:33 am
oragne lovre wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:56 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:03 am
cj2018 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:57 pm


TSLA is valued as a tech business, not car business. Any comps with a car business like Ford or GM or Toyota alike is simply absurd. Yes, they currently produce cars but their main business is renewable energy and total domination in AI- based means of transportation.

Again, please don’t insult Tesla by comparing it to traditional car business like Ford, it’s not apple to Apple comparison
Is it so absurd? At the end of the day one has to ask where any putative profits may come from. As far as we can tell, it's going to be cars and perhaps to a lesser extent home batteries and the like. But their battery tech isn't all that unique, and they haven't done all that much with the solar city acquisition. What they are mostly selling are slick futuristic cars. So then, how is it different from Ford or GM other than specializing in EVs? This is simply a new product sold within an established business. That's very different from, say Amazon, which was originally an online bookseller but obviously had a much different business model than Barnes and Noble because the online nature allowed it to sell just about anything and also expand into non-retail services. It's not clear what Tesla can do that GM can't. Perhaps Musk is hiding an ace up his sleeve and there's some new direction the business is going in, but until we see that ace I simply don't see the justification for valuing Tesla as anything other than a car company.
As you pointed out, Amazon was initially an online bookseller and few people then could have imagined what Amazon would have expanded into other services as it does today. If you look at Tesla history, it initially starts out as a company for niche market of performance car, the Roadster. It has, however, expanded into battery manufacturing along with Panasonic, into power-storage business, into solar energy. Its CEO also has his hands on Space X that helped launch his original Roadster car into the orbit, on Boring company that has won Chicago bid to build a tunnel to alleviate traffic congestion surrounding Chicago O'Hare. Those are just some examples what Tesla CEO can do that GM cannot. Tesla, well connected to other sister companies, is not just in car business. Investors, who may be right or wrong, see it as a tech company.
Right, but spaceX and the boring company are different companies even if Musk is behind them. Tesla does not participate in the upside from those activities. Tesla started out as a company with one model, but that generally how car companies start out.
https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/tesla-se ... g-company/

I used to think that these companies were not conntected but Tesla technology and batteries may have other applications not well aware by non-technological investors.
$400,000 of batteries and motors between Tesla and the Boring company is hardly indicative of a transformational new business line.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:57 am

Germany going long (talks to build a plant)?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-expl ... 1532961828
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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:05 am

4nursebee wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:57 am
Germany going long (talks to build a plant)?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-expl ... 1532961828
Pump, pump, pump! Just like the five China factory announcements over the years. This is nothing.
The talks are still in their early stages, and might not yield an agreement
1) Build China Gigafactory
2) New factory in Europe
3) Model S, X refresh, Model Y
4) Expand Gigafactory
5) Pay debt
6) Build Semi
7) Build Roadster

Cash in hand : <$2B Q2 likely
Capital needed : Around $10-11B

Capital Raise:
1) Sell Flamethrowers, Surfboards.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:48 pm

Earnings (or lack thereof :wink: ) set to be announced this Wednesday.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:10 pm

walkerbait wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:54 am
This has probably been discussed before, and is nothing more than a guess on my part, but I think Tesla will have a real problem with margins on the $35k Model 3. I am guessing they are making money with their current production models, but I wonder what their cost structure is like as the options fade and the average selling price drops.

It would seem as if the vast majority of their pent up demand is waiting for the cheaper models (evidenced by rapidly shortening wait times for those willing to buy a current production model). With their cash flow situation, I can't help but wonder if they're stuck between moving to the cheaper models (and little or no operating margin) vs trying to hold out and continue to produce the current models (less demand but an operating margin).

They may have been counting on efficiencies at scale for 1-2 years from now that haven't yet materialized by the time they get to the $35k version. Again, just a guess.
Ive seen multiple articles showing a loss at $35K. Hence Musk pushing the higher end ones for initial delivery.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:35 pm

Theoretical wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:01 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am
For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
I think the long term environmental consequences of the huge increase in lithium batteries remain to be seen and are likely underestimated.
A fraction though of what the equivalent amount of petrol engined (ICE in general) cars do to the environment. Gasoline and diesel really are awful.

No solution is perfect, but some are a lot better than others.

A potentially greater concern is a shortage of the Rare Earths (which are not necessarily rare) that go into the electric motors (but not, as I understand it the batteries).

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:42 pm

4nursebee wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am
For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
I think Tesla did that deal to bail out Musk's own $1bn+ investment in that company, that he would have lost (I am vague on the numbers, but I think it is on that order).

Although the Powerwall is a neat idea, I don't in general see big synergies with a car maker, even an electric one.

Yes solar is going to be big. Utility scale solar farms in high solar insolation areas. Home solar? Yes, in time, but costs aren't low enough yet*.

But it's hard to establish comparative advantage on that. What you need is a solar panel breakthrough that cannot be easily duplicated. The industry is low on R&D

https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/taming-sun is an interesting critique, from a solar industry expert and advocate. Well worth googling his name and getting some of the to and fro that this book provoked.

In summary, I don't see it creating huge value for Tesla shareholders. Insufficient barriers to entry.


* they are much much lower for home solar in Australia. There's a host of reasons for that around regulation and streamlined supply and installation chains. Australia (where power rates have soared) is probably the highest home solar penetration in the world (or headed that way).

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:57 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:42 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:09 am
For those that have opinions on Tesla as a company to invest in (or to avoid due to its lack of future prospects, not because it is non BH), what are you opinions or thoughts on the energy aspects of its product offerings? I have little hope to fully comprehend such things but the future seems positive.
I think Tesla did that deal to bail out Musk's own $1bn+ investment in that company, that he would have lost (I am vague on the numbers, but I think it is on that order).

Although the Powerwall is a neat idea, I don't in general see big synergies with a car maker, even an electric one.

Yes solar is going to be big. Utility scale solar farms in high solar insolation areas. Home solar? Yes, in time, but costs aren't low enough yet*.

But it's hard to establish comparative advantage on that. What you need is a solar panel breakthrough that cannot be easily duplicated. The industry is low on R&D

https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/taming-sun is an interesting critique, from a solar industry expert and advocate. Well worth googling his name and getting some of the to and fro that this book provoked.

In summary, I don't see it creating huge value for Tesla shareholders. Insufficient barriers to entry.


* they are much much lower for home solar in Australia. There's a host of reasons for that around regulation and streamlined supply and installation chains. Australia (where power rates have soared) is probably the highest home solar penetration in the world (or headed that way).
Thanks for sharing these thoughts.
I do see need for Powerwall, perhaps even affordability for some. Not yet for me. The Puerto Rico virtual power station in 11,000 homes is interesting. Big powerwalls, like Australia battery also interesting.
Home Solar? Got it, affordable. Basically paid for itself.
I think there is R and D. The R/D for solar in TSLA is the software/hardware that controls things, also the new roof design.

I knew of an HVAC man that installed free minisplit AC systems in public housing as long as he got paid the savings he generated over a year or two. He made money. I think battery power could do this also on a large scale, as in the Australia story, I just cant wrap my mind around that business well enough to justify further holding of TSLA stock.
4nursebee

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by FIBoston » Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:47 pm

**checks url, makes sure he's not in reddit**

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:32 am

Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car.
Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives.

Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not just stuck with interstates with superchargers. $35,000. I'd find that far preferable to a Tesla at this point.

They do sell an all-electric one with only 89 mile range. I agree that's lame. They appear to be only leasing that one.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am

oragne lovre wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:56 pm
Its CEO also has his hands on Space X that helped launch his original Roadster car into the orbit, on Boring company that has won Chicago bid to build a tunnel to alleviate traffic congestion surrounding Chicago O'Hare.
That's actually a NEGATIVE. Those ventures distract the CEO from focusing on making Tesla profitable. And many senior leaders have left Tesla, so Musk needs to spend MORE time on Tesla if he wants to keep it going.
Tesla, well connected to other sister companies, is not just in car business. Investors, who may be right or wrong, see it as a tech company.
Tesla absolutely is a car company. It does have it hands in battery technology. That very well could expand Tesla profit's beyond it's core car business.

But SpaceX and the Boring company have very little to do with Tesla's profits. Very weird that you would bring those up as a reason to invest in Tesla. I guess you're investing in Musk, not Tesla?
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:32 am
Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car.
Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives.

Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not just stuck with interstates. $35,000. I'd find that far preferable to a Tesla at this point.

They do sell an all-electric one with only 89 mile range. I agree that's lame. They appear to be only leasing that one.
+1 Far more interested in plug in hybrid approach vs all electric. Much more versatile car.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:32 pm

The conference call and many things about it suggest they are executing well, have firm plans for the future, and are doing things well.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:43 pm

Apparently the largest quarterly loss in Tesla history didn't stop the investors as stock is up 5% in after hours trading.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/01/news/c ... index.html

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Ruprecht » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:50 pm

Theoretical wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:01 pm
I think the long term environmental consequences of the huge increase in lithium batteries remain to be seen and are likely underestimated.
What? You must be joking. Lithium falls freely from the sky and is lovingly collected by bunny rabbits.
Last edited by Ruprecht on Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by harikaried » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:54 pm

There was an interesting comment from the investor call that is expanded on their shareholder letter regarding the Model 3 competitors.

Top 5 trade ins: Toyota Prius, BMW 3-series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Nissan Leaf

July Model 3 sales were 52% of all US mid-sized premium sedan sales. I.e., Model 3 sold more than BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class, Lexus IS, Jaguar XE combined.

So it seems that quite a few Model 3 buyers are willing to spend more money on a Tesla than what they've spent previously for a vehicle. Would be interesting to see what this extra spending is at what expense and if it's causing the mid-sized segment to shrink or these are new buyers.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:02 pm

Some more news from the Tesla 2Q results.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/tesla-e ... -2018.html
The electric car maker's second-quarter loss was wider than analysts expected, but the company backed its prior forecast that calls for profitable third and fourth quarters.
Tesla's total automotive gross margins rose slightly, fueled in part by a the fact that Model 3 gross margins turned slightly positive in the second quarter, over the previous quarter, but were down over the second quarter of last year. Tesla expects Model 3 margins to be 15 percent in the third quarter, still lower than the 25 percent target Tesla had set for the car.
https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-e ... h-14670514

Tesla Earnings Were a Mess -- 3 Reasons to Stay Bearish on the Stock

excerpts:
Tesla burned through $1.5 billion in cash in the first six months of the year. Despite Tesla saying it's keeping a watchful eye on capital expenditures, it still only ended the quarter with $2.2 billion in cash.

"In the second half of 2018, we expect, for the first time in our history, to become both sustainably profitable and cash flow positive," Tesla said on its earnings press release. The company may be banking on a big fourth quarter.

Tesla hinted it will raise money to fund its new Gigafactory in China.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:06 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:32 am
Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car.
Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives.

Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not just stuck with interstates. $35,000. I'd find that far preferable to a Tesla at this point.

They do sell an all-electric one with only 89 mile range. I agree that's lame. They appear to be only leasing that one.
+1 Far more interested in plug in hybrid approach vs all electric. Much more versatile car.
Everyone has a different preference. Hybrid doesn't interest me. Give me a bigger battery and remove the combustion engine. No more oil changes, no more trips to the gas station. BEV is the car for me!

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by cj2018 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:24 pm

ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:06 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:32 am
Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car.
Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives.

Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not just stuck with interstates. $35,000. I'd find that far preferable to a Tesla at this point.

They do sell an all-electric one with only 89 mile range. I agree that's lame. They appear to be only leasing that one.
+1 Far more interested in plug in hybrid approach vs all electric. Much more versatile car.
Everyone has a different preference. Hybrid doesn't interest me. Give me a bigger battery and remove the combustion engine. No more oil changes, no more trips to the gas station. BEV is the car for me!
Ditto - oil changes, gas station, combustion engine all suck. Bigger battery, solar or other sustainable renewable clean energy couldn't come faster!

Most millennials like myself dislike cars (that's why we Uber/Lyft), hate combustion engine or trip to gas station/oil change (BEV for me!). It's simply a demographic shift and different preferences than the older generations.

In Musk we Trust! (or whoever else that can bring us to the future). Combustion engine must go. :sharebeer

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:51 pm

FIBoston wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:47 pm
**checks url, makes sure he's not in reddit**
:sharebeer

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by gougou » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:10 pm

Tesla probably will deliver 60K model 3 in Q3 which is 40K more than Q2. Assuming ASP of $55K that is $2.2B more revenue than this quarter.

So we are looking at $6.2B revenue per quarter and rapidly growing. Forward P/S is about 2. With China and Europe factories this company can grow really big in 2 to 3 years. Tesla also expects to be profitable and cashflow positive. It is dangerous to short such a stock.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by oragne lovre » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:09 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am
oragne lovre wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:56 pm
Its CEO also has his hands on Space X that helped launch his original Roadster car into the orbit, on Boring company that has won Chicago bid to build a tunnel to alleviate traffic congestion surrounding Chicago O'Hare.
That's actually a NEGATIVE. Those ventures distract the CEO from focusing on making Tesla profitable. And many senior leaders have left Tesla, so Musk needs to spend MORE time on Tesla if he wants to keep it going.
Tesla, well connected to other sister companies, is not just in car business. Investors, who may be right or wrong, see it as a tech company.
Tesla absolutely is a car company. It does have it hands in battery technology. That very well could expand Tesla profit's beyond it's core car business.

But SpaceX and the Boring company have very little to do with Tesla's profits. Very weird that you would bring those up as a reason to invest in Tesla. I guess you're investing in Musk, not Tesla?
It's about sustainable energy, reuseable materials, millennials' change of thought, benevolent artificial intelligence.
Last edited by oragne lovre on Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Tanelorn
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:11 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:04 pm
"Tesla reports the biggest loss in its history," looks like Q2 had a $720 million loss and total $1.4 billion this year. So with $2.2 billion cash, Tesla will be bankrupt by this time next year? Is that what you're looking at for recommending people to short the stock?
They won’t go bankrupt but they will likely need to raise capital and that can be expensive and be reflected in a lower stock price.

Yes, they claim to be executing well and to be profitable and cash flow positive for every quarter starting with Q3. But Musk lies a lot, and I seriously doubt they will achieve this except perhaps through accounting gimmicks. We’ll see where this ends up in another quarter or two.

My theory is that the stock is up since Elon didn’t insult anyone or act crazy, just tired and a bit rambling, so much better than expected.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:02 pm
TSLA up 10% in extended trading. At what point do you cut your losses? Not a good day to be a shorter.
Why would you cover when your thesis hasn’t changed and their financials haven’t meaningfully improved? Same company, short more when it goes up, right? Just like when you “buy cheap” when the market irrationally falls. 10% swings are par for the course for a volatile stock like Tesla. Presumably one shorting the stock will have sized it appropriately so they won’t have to cut their losses even if it moves 20-30% higher.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by rgs92 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:31 am

Nah, I don't think so. All Tesla sells is cars. Nobody has a monopoly on cars. Toyota and Honda are the most popular cars, and even they have not been super investments, just reasonably healthy companies.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by jdb » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:00 am

rgs92 wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:31 am
Nah, I don't think so. All Tesla sells is cars. Nobody has a monopoly on cars. Toyota and Honda are the most popular cars, and even they have not been super investments, just reasonably healthy companies.
They also sell solar roofs. I have $1K refundable deposit to be first in my neighborhood when solar roofs introduced here. Also plan to get their garage battery storage unit, maybe two. Oh by the way they also sell and install large battery powered electrical generators for utllity companies (see Australia). And will be selling the fuel (electricity) for their cars in nationwide fast charge network eventually once Model 3 and their Model Y and their pickup truck which I plan to buy become ubiquitous.

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Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:12 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:11 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:04 pm
"Tesla reports the biggest loss in its history," looks like Q2 had a $720 million loss and total $1.4 billion this year. So with $2.2 billion cash, Tesla will be bankrupt by this time next year? Is that what you're looking at for recommending people to short the stock?
They won’t go bankrupt but they will likely need to raise capital and that can be expensive and be reflected in a lower stock price.

Yes, they claim to be executing well and to be profitable and cash flow positive for every quarter starting with Q3. But Musk lies a lot, and I seriously doubt they will achieve this except perhaps through accounting gimmicks. We’ll see where this ends up in another quarter or two.

My theory is that the stock is up since Elon didn’t insult anyone or act crazy, just tired and a bit rambling, so much better than expected.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:02 pm
TSLA up 10% in extended trading. At what point do you cut your losses? Not a good day to be a shorter.
Why would you cover when your thesis hasn’t changed and their financials haven’t meaningfully improved? Same company, short more when it goes up, right? Just like when you “buy cheap” when the market irrationally falls. 10% swings are par for the course for a volatile stock like Tesla. Presumably one shorting the stock will have sized it appropriately so they won’t have to cut their losses even if it moves 20-30% higher.
I agree that it looks like they may need to raise capital (multiple writers have mentioned that in their articles) but whether that will be reflected in a lower stock price isn't clear as I don't think the stock price is rational as it is being pumped up by irrational behavior. The stock was up 10% in after hours trading after they posted the worse loss in history (as well as worse than expected) because Musk didn't call anyone names and they gave a positive outlook for the next 2 quarters. Oh, and they have shown the ability to make 5k cars per week which is something all other car companies do in their sleep, all day long for new models. TSLA opened like 9% higher this morning. Crazy....

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Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:14 am

rgs92 wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:31 am
Nah, I don't think so. All Tesla sells is cars. Nobody has a monopoly on cars. Toyota and Honda are the most popular cars, and even they have not been super investments, just reasonably healthy companies.
Agree. In part because this is a capital intensive industry, requires lots of investment in R&D and production facilities and is extremely competitive. Constant vehicle refresh and new models means constantly funding the capital for all this activity.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:38 am

Record quarterly loss for the company....apologizes to the reporters who he acted like a 10 year old to last time around....didn't act like a 10 year old for a change. Stock goes up.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm

. . . Not just up, up almost 13% as I post this. I’m glad that I just buy the car and don’t sell or buy the stock.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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4nursebee
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:47 pm

:sharebeer
4nursebee

cj2018
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by cj2018 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:57 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm
. . . Not just up, up almost 13% as I post this. I’m glad that I just buy the car and don’t sell or buy the stock.
And how you liking your Tesla car sir? :happy

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:02 pm

cj2018 wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:57 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm
. . . Not just up, up almost 13% as I post this. I’m glad that I just buy the car and don’t sell or buy the stock.
And how you liking your Tesla car sir? :happy
I have loved 2 cars in my life: my first car, a beater that gave me freedom, and my Tesla Model X. In between, I’ve liked some and disliked some Saab, Mercedes, Range Rover, Audi, Chrysler minivan, Jeep Wrangler, Volvo (actually, I think I might love the XC60, but I don’t own it), BMW, but the Tesla is the best car I’ve ever owned.

I quickly drove a rental Model 3, and quite liked it also.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:07 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:32 am
Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car.
Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives.

Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not just stuck with interstates. $35,000. I'd find that far preferable to a Tesla at this point.

They do sell an all-electric one with only 89 mile range. I agree that's lame. They appear to be only leasing that one.
+1 Far more interested in plug in hybrid approach vs all electric. Much more versatile car.
This is all I hear. I know a lot of people who are interested in hybrids, that can either be a Prius (look at how many of them are on the road) or an electric that has a gas engine to use for longer drives.

If I bought an only-electric car, I'd have to rent a gas car for long road trips anyway. Unless there are charging stations along the way, but a hybrid car can charge there anyway. May as well have a car with the ability to not rely on finding a charging station all the time.

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DanMahowny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:29 pm

Funding secured

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Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:09 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:29 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN0VJ2J6

It's deja vu all over again.
LOL. I knew something felt weird. From the article (2016):
Tesla shares rose more than 10 percent in after-hours trading after the company forecast a 60 to 80 percent increase in vehicle sales this year and promised it would turn a profit on an adjusted basis. It will start generating positive cash flow in March.

“I feel very good about things right now,” Musk said. “The last several months have been quite excruciating.”

Musk and the company’s new chief financial officer, Jason Wheeler, sought to assure investors on a conference call on Wednesday evening that Tesla is determined to cut costs, hit production targets and stanch losses.

Musk said Tesla would make its first net profit by the fourth quarter.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by jdb » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:02 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:09 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:29 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN0VJ2J6

It's deja vu all over again.
LOL. I knew something felt weird. From the article (2016):
Tesla shares rose more than 10 percent in after-hours trading after the company forecast a 60 to 80 percent increase in vehicle sales this year and promised it would turn a profit on an adjusted basis. It will start generating positive cash flow in March.

“I feel very good about things right now,” Musk said. “The last several months have been quite excruciating.”

Musk and the company’s new chief financial officer, Jason Wheeler, sought to assure investors on a conference call on Wednesday evening that Tesla is determined to cut costs, hit production targets and stanch losses.

Musk said Tesla would make its first net profit by the fourth quarter.
Yes same for me but different perspective. This topic is about investing in Tesla. When article was published in Feb 2016 stock was around $150 and I made purchase of stock despite negative press and all the haters. Has worked out well. In my opinion will continue to work out well. Good luck.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:07 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm
. . . Not just up, up almost 13% as I post this. I’m glad that I just buy the car and don’t sell or buy the stock.
Wait, I thought YOU were not going to post on things Tesla. LOL. Can't help yourself can you. Oh the irony. Or is that hypocrisy? :P

PS. Feel free to post as often as you like about all things Tesla. I would never presume to tell you what to do or what is relevant to a topic.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:22 pm

Matjen, mostly I stay away. I just popped in for a minute. That’s the beauty of a self imposed exile; I get to decide when to pop back in. Nothing hypocritical or ironic about it at all.

Carry on.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:36 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:22 pm
Matjen, mostly I stay away. I just popped in for a minute. That’s the beauty of a self imposed exile; I get to decide when to pop back in. Nothing hypocritical or ironic about it at all.

Carry on.
:beer Adding to my imaginary short.
Last edited by matjen on Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JC565
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by JC565 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:22 pm

I posted here About how to short tsla and got admonished for it. This was about a week before it plummeted. :D

Tesla is a loser. Treat it that way till it isn't (or it gets bought out)

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:54 am

matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:15 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:55 am

The Performance 3 starts at $64,000. It can get near $80k, but only because of EAP and FSD, which BMW doesn't offer. :sharebeer

https://3.tesla.com/model3/design#battery
HAHAHA! Good point. Tesla offers that stuff but doesn't seem to deliver does it? At least not safely with the former and I don't think at all with the latter. Meanwhile a BMW M3 offers a heritage, a heads-ups display, a 319 mile range on a 5 minute fill up, and most importantly for these types of cars the ability to enjoy a track day. I am doubtful that a Telsa will do those things. I only bring that up because Musk compared the performance version to a BMW M3. A Tesla would be more enjoyable for tooling around a city and has its own charms if it is made well.

Meanwhile back to the health of the company. How is that service branch going? There is more to a viable mass market car manufacturer than how the car drives for a few days when brand new. Servicing these cars under warranty is going to cost a fortune.

Good news: Your Tesla Model 3 is finally ready. Bad news: It may take weeks to get it serviced
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... story.html#
Parts shortages, long repair delays and problems getting through on customer help lines have led to scenes of strife at Tesla’s service centers.

At the entrance to the company’s Dublin, Calif., center recently, an agitated Model X owner was trying to drop his SUV off for repair. A Tesla service agent said he couldn’t leave the car there because the facility was too busy. He could make an appointment to bring it in another time, maybe in a couple of weeks.

“But I don’t want to drive it!” said Kaushal Bhaskar, a software engineer from nearby San Ramon who complained he sometimes couldn’t get the passenger door to open, while other times the door would open up all by itself – including once on the Interstate at highway speeds. “This is a safety concern for me!”
Good thing this is just the LA Times and not really related to Tesla's target market. :P
Don't forget about BMW's legendary reliability. That's heritage they can really take to the bank! ;)
Few marques command as much respect from people who crave performance as BMW, and the M line of cars in particular are some of the most desirable and most powerful vehicles around. However, there’s a closely guarded secret that no respected publication would ever broach, and it’s that all BMW engines are monumental piles of unreliable garbage.
https://jalopnik.com/bmw-engines-are-gi ... 1784684330

Performance seems to be OK. Mostly because it doesn't cut power like the S/X do. I imagine it would do better or worse than other cars based on the track/conditions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/31/mo ... exclusive/
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/r ... rack-test/

The service center slowdown was apparently because Tesla's pulling employees to help out at Fremont/Sparks. It'd be nice if they did that in a relatively controlled manner, but hitting the tax credit limit and their overall lead in EVs are to me good reasons to try to improve production ASAP. :beer

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/31/tesla-u ... -cars.html

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:04 pm

I knew you were going to post this! :D In a set up test with the Tesla PR guy under ideal conditions where they don't include lap times it cut power by 3 seconds a lap after just a few laps (AKA an eternity on a track). That is NOT an M3 my friend.
Heat buildup is inevitable. After three or four laps at absolute tire-torturing full speed, the car begins to reduce power output.
The car will go roughly 30 laps before needing to be charged. So perhaps a 45 minute track day. What fun! Again, not an M3. A typical track day lasts most of a day over several sessions and you drive there in your car and home. The R&T article ends with sort of the understanding that this isn't really a M3 competitor.

Having said that it would likely be more enjoyable around town. I wish Tesla fans would just harp on that rather than the stretching to road trips and track stuff where they aren't suited.

P.S. You forget the very lukewarm Consumer Reports review that most on Bogleheads worship.

But hey, 2 points more than a Leaf at twice the price ain't bad. ;-)

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Last edited by matjen on Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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